{"id":8321,"date":"2023-10-24T09:41:15","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T07:41:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:48:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:48:58","slug":"2023-10-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The counterattack against Pisky is brilliant in its simplicity \u2013 all RU units are north of the V-E watercourse so UA attacks south of the watercourse and has flank protection \u2013 it\u2019s what you\u2019d call making a Ukrainian.<\/p>\n

The fact that UA attacks in the area means that RU has weakened in the area, right? We now know that it is a lot of DPR units that have attacked and they were probably low in numbers to begin with and then they had guard duty in the darkest Donbass.
\nThe reason we hear nothing from Dnepr or the southern front is because UA has imposed a total information embargo over the area.<\/p>\n

We know from RU that UA has expanded the bridgeheads and we can assume that RU counterattacks are being carried out \u2013 1A in the textbook and it seems to be their spinal reflex.<\/p>\n

So far they have not managed to break the bridgeheads and since UA controls the islands they can have a fleet of small boats for reinforcements, maintenance, and evacuation.<\/p>\n

UA naturally knows this so a serious attempt at Dnepr must be paired with increased pressure on the southern front \u2013 which is also what we have heard from RU sources.<\/p>\n

If you remember Kherson, they worked on it for months before the defense ran out of steam and we see exactly the same here.
\nThat UA can even advance up in northern Luhansk is sensational and indicates that RU has weakened significantly there. We discussed a few months ago that they probably had redundancy of about 10 brigades max and now it seems more have disappeared and all offensive reserves have been pulled out.<\/p>\n

Clustered Russians should soon reach new heights when ATACMS ammunition arrives and since it has been commented on and offensive operations have started, it is likely in place.<\/p>\n

The blogger noted yesterday a sharply increased use of FAB500 and FAB1500 bombs and linked it to RU probably being under pressure which must be likely?<\/p>\n

Throughout the war, UA has unfortunately had to fight with what they have and we can only hope that RU runs out of ammunition and loses more weapon carriers. Either qualified LV or new advanced aircraft would have denied them the use of this weapon \ud83e\udd2c
\nThings are moving more than the information we get right now, increased intensity, and there is no reason to reduce it since Russia after Christmas can send a couple of new CAAs to the fronts.<\/p>\n

Russia has always gone all in until it crashes and if it doesn\u2019t work, they increase the violence and do more of the same. When it stopped in Ukraine, they did more of the same against I..el.<\/p>\n

The recipe is simple \u2013 continue to resource Ukraine until Russia crashes.<\/p>\n

There is no middle ground, there is no alternative because Russia has already started and they will continue to escalate until they either win or crash \u2013 that\u2019s all they can do.<\/p>\n

The safest way to make Russia crash is to fully resource Ukraine and unleash them where they want to fight.
\nIf they want to go towards Moscow, let them go towards Moscow because the world will not get worse if they go towards Moscow (bad example, maybe should have written northern oblasts).<\/p>\n

The idea that Russia cannot lose is high-level historical revisionism and that they never run out of materiel has long been disproven.<\/p>\n

Let Ukraine do what they do best \u2013 they have already carried out acts of freedom in Russia Mossad-style.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1716481270648045692?s=46&t=KOe8ZUBbcgLUW9l6BW9iTw<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Ukraine will accept anything less than full justice and they will dispense justice themselves, one dead Russian terrorist at a time.<\/p>\n

They will also improve the security situation in their vicinity by having good contacts with surrounding Russian oblasts if Russia turns inward is my guess.<\/p>\n

If Russia does not turn inward, it will be minefields and HIMARS.<\/p>\n

They will have an excellent relationship with Poland despite previous conflicts and they will take responsibility for the Baltics.<\/p>\n

I am a bit perplexed that they dropped a lot of FAB500 and FAB1500 over Gammelsvenskby actually. I know it\u2019s too early but at some point they will fire all their ammunition before they retreat, something to keep an eye on \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Maybe drifting a bit in the post below.<\/p>\n

I am very affected by the level of violence in Ukraine and especially the torture. Flew past some tweet about Persian torture methods the other day and it struck me how much effort was put into maximizing suffering for as long as possible before the victim died \u2013 that was the purpose.
\nI thought further about the subject of torture and concluded that at some point the West stopped torturing as punishment and if the death penalty was given then it was the death itself they were interested in, not inflicting as much pain and for as long as possible.
\nTorture as a method to force information has proven worthless because eventually the victim admits to anything.<\/p>\n

We have become used to civil wars in Africa being terrible, that chopping off someone\u2019s hands with a machete is quite common in civil wars and rapes are the rule and often extremely brutal. Often the army comes first and accuses residents of being sympathetic to the rebels and subjects them to abuse and then the rebels come and accuse them of being sympathetic to the army because they have been there and subject them to abuse and so it goes on.<\/p>\n

We have previously been shocked by IS atrocities and especially how the IS terrorists who came from the West were often the most brutal \u2013 the medieval handbook in torture was followed, and improvements were made to increase suffering.
\nRussian soldiers have behaved in exactly the same way throughout the war and also since 2014 wherever they have gotten access. A Ukrainian prisoner who had \u201cglory to Ukraine\u201d tattooed on his hand had it amputated as an example.<\/p>\n

Some ask rhetorically if Donbass will ever be able to be incorporated into Ukraine \u2013 absolutely because they are now damn tired of these constant abuses.<\/p>\n

We have films of Ukrainian prisoners who have been castrated, rumors that many prisoners returning especially from Azov were castrated, reports of amputations, prisoners who come back look like they are from concentration camps and so on in all their evil. What no one talks about are the rapes but you can be completely sure they are severe and many and would make a Swedish gang rape look voluntary.<\/p>\n

If we then consider that a person who is subjected to a severe group gang rape in Sweden needs many years to be able to process it with the risk that they drop out or take their lives. We can guess how damaged the people are who have been subjected to this for many months.
\nRussian soldiers seem not to care about age, five-year-olds have been found murdered with clear signs of rape and torture \u2013 you wouldn\u2019t be able to get many in the Swedish army to do something like that even under threat of weapons.<\/p>\n

The description of the Latvian freedom fighter’s body that was found and how he was tortured was difficult reading.<\/p>\n

We almost have to go back to the 1940s to find examples of when this level of violence occurred in our vicinity as widespread as it is now.
\nThe war in Ukraine is a genocide even though Amnesty, the UN, and the Red Cross refuse to utter this word, and the UN can continue to push their “6000 murdered civilians” or whatever it is; the final number for this war will be astronomical.<\/p>\n

Then I think it is very clear what will happen to the country I..el if they cannot hold the border, but that was a small sidetrack.<\/p>\n

For us in the West, it is actually quite simple \u2013 we are okay with the USA on top, and we will not be okay with Russia or China on top, and above all, we will have it very bad under Russian or Chinese dominance. Lex Ukraine.
\nYes, it’s very fun to complain about the USA, but the day we have to report to a Russian provincial chief instead, the fun is over, and our veins will be pulled out of our arms with wire at the slightest misstep (for those who read the link yesterday).
\nNow you can sit and air all your hatred against decadent West, but under Russian dominance, you cannot complain about anything because then you will end up behind bars. It is the freedom in the West that allows us to use our freedom of speech to condemn the West.<\/p>\n

The Cold War was the Cold War, and to understand how serious it was, the Soviet tanks were revving their engines in half of Berlin and then south to the western border of Czechoslovakia (before the split), and we had a war beneath the surface in the Swedish archipelago \u2013 those were special circumstances.<\/p>\n

We have tried to have a world order where the UN, Amnesty, the West, and many other organizations exert pressure on states that have gone too far or started wars, and it has sometimes worked really well.
\nIt is not easy to navigate this, and above all, we in the West have our legal principles to adhere to; just because a dictatorship in a developing country gets a feeling, you cannot invade that country just like that.
\nMoreover, violations occur, and few today feel that the Iraq war, Afghanistan, and Libya were smart or brought anything.<\/p>\n

But the warring countries in the West are under constant surveillance and are strongly influenced by condemnations from the UN, Amnesty, and so on.<\/p>\n

Laws are only for those who follow them, right?<\/p>\n

Russia does not care the least, and the UN, Amnesty, and the Red Cross have basically left a walkover in the Ukraine war \u2013 when they are really needed.
\nI..el and G..a aside, but this is magnitudes worse and should have prompted magnitudes greater condemnations from all these organizations. Now we should not bring up the violations again because it is not good for blood pressure, but there is a whole basket of examples when these organizations did the opposite in the case of the war of aggression on Ukraine.
\nThose of you who have followed the war from the beginning remember that the defenders of Mariupol’s security were to be guaranteed by the Red Cross. Mariupol’s defenders have been tortured to death in prison in Russia, and the Red Cross has not lifted a finger.<\/p>\n

I understand the idea behind all these organizations, and as someone wrote earlier in the thread \u2013 after every major conflict, the world sits down and tries to ensure it never happens again and builds up the organizations that are supposed to give us peace in our time.
\nThen it happens again, not because the organizations did not work but because the same type of states always throw away the rulebook and go full bananas.<\/p>\n

After this possibly global conflict, the world will once again sit down and try to agree on how we shall have peace in our time.<\/p>\n

I am now of the opinion that NATO is not a bad idea; surround China and Russia in NATO so they can have their multipolar world, those two behind a NATO wall.<\/p>\n

Then the free West should consider how to tackle the neocolonization of Africa \u2013 this is a runaway problem that is underestimated because we all probably understand that Russia will start new refugee flows as soon as they can. These are the world’s most fragile countries where peace is one shooting away from falling.
\nEven Johan No.1 understands that the world is not one hundred percent light blue and that there are countries where you live in absolute misery. That will always be the case, unfortunately, but you can make the world as a whole worse or better, and right now, we are heading towards a very sharp deterioration very fast.<\/p>\n

I lived ten years in a war-torn country that had achieved peace, and since my company paid 80,000 SEK per month just for my upkeep, I saw a chance to increase the salary a bit, so I negotiated to get the money in hand and then took care of the upkeep myself. I lived quite a few years right in the ghettos (if one may say so) for a few thousand a month, and it is not a nice life they have. Then, of course, I had electricity, cooling, water, and food, which others did not have, and I had to spread some of that so the neighbors would not decide to upgrade their housing from my house. This I am quite alone about even among experienced expats, I have discovered; they have rarely lived outside the privileged bubble even if they have been in difficult countries, and the whole aid industry lives like gods. Everyone cares about the vulnerable but only as long as they have gin and tonic in the hotel bar every evening.<\/p>\n

It is not easy to change the world, especially when corruption is rampant and all resources are snatched by the privileged class in the countries the West tries to help.<\/p>\n

But\u2026<\/p>\n

You do not need to fuel the negative so the world becomes even worse, and that is exactly what Russia and, I suspect, China are doing. When it comes to China, they have not yet shown their hand, but we know exactly where we have Russia. There is no doubt.<\/p>\n

To be tolerant, you need to be intolerant of the intolerant, and this is where NATO comes in.<\/p>\n

Now we soon have an EU eastern border against Russia, with a bit of luck Belarus will turn, and Kaliningrad will move towards demilitarization \u2013 we will see, and if not, it will still be fine.<\/p>\n

After that, one must start probing how the southern border with Russia shall be resolved, and then we have Asia.<\/p>\n

The charm of NATO, if done right, is that no country needs to break itself, but if it becomes a sharp situation, everyone pools together so that it is enough for a win \u2013 an enormous threshold effect.<\/p>\n

Then I am quite open to SOF raids into countries in Africa where Russia or China have grown too strong. For a while, the West struck against Wagner in that way to prevent their expansion, but if I understand this correctly, it has decreased, why is unclear.
\nOne could do it under some umbrella organization with the explicit purpose of not allowing \u201cforeign private military contractors\u201d in Africa, perhaps?<\/p>\n

The same concept that the USA uses in South America against drug smugglers?<\/p>\n

Then, not many have probably understood that Africa has taken the first steps towards its own EU and that it has gone quite well, but that is exactly what Russia is now tearing down; they thrive in chaos.<\/p>\n

Yes, I have a special passion for Africa and often get stuck in it, and of course there are countries here and there in the same situation, least of all Ukraine, but it is becoming critical now to push back Russia before they manage to start too many conflicts. The absolute cynicism of pouring gasoline on the fire in the world\u2019s most infected conflict in MENA says it all.<\/p>\n

And the continent with equally infected underlying conflicts is where Wagner is now creating its Ruski mir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d We just have to keep waiting for Russia to crash!<\/p>\n

In the meantime, it\u2019s probably a good idea to listen to this old ballad: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=aoXrd3_3fYI<\/a> which with a few changes in the lyrics could fit Russia \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1000 Interesting thoughts and well written!<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, I\u2019m afraid that the West won\u2019t do much about the situation in Africa but of course I hope I\u2019m wrong.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve said it before and I say it again, you should try to get published because what you write deserves an even larger audience than this blog.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has this been up, my god \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/julianroepcke\/status\/1716754445856378892?s=46&t=Ae7dUnEdhmxWUnxNItRiBA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, times of waiting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I wrote some letters to newspapers for a while and still have a hundred or so followers on Twitter \ud83d\ude00
\nI think the blog is inspiring in itself, it\u2019s simply fun to write here but yes, sometimes you wonder how to shape public opinion on things that are important where the country in general has landed wrong, but it\u2019s not the easiest. One example of such an issue is the Russian influence operations which I think the thread has started to unravel quite a bit now, all media with a bit of self-respect should start pushing that as much as they can, especially those that affect Sweden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Baltic connector was possibly destroyed with an anchor.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/akihheikkinen\/status\/1716820263701241934?s=46&t=rWrCln_Q5CipdyHwZ_HR9g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
17:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, hopefully one or another journalist can be inspired by your (and several others\u2019) posts!!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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