{"id":8323,"date":"2023-10-28T10:02:03","date_gmt":"2023-10-28T08:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-10-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T08:49:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T06:49:18","slug":"2023-10-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-10-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-10-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1717807147373969412?s=46&t=_4xmA9XVIvZ8WdbSQa1lIg<\/a><\/p>\n

Here we have some figures for UA from Kiev Independent, my guess of 50k killed and 250k wounded was not correct.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1717916676933513335?s=46&t=_4xmA9XVIvZ8WdbSQa1lIg<\/a>
\nAt the start of the war, the defense forces were 261,000, I interpret that as the total defense which now is over a million with 500,000 in the army?<\/p>\n

The USA estimates 70,000 killed and 100,000-120,000 wounded, that was probably where I overshot a bit with the total number of wounded \ud83d\ude00
\nUA has stated that 80% of the wounded return to the units.<\/p>\n

These types of articles have also started to appear now that take a reality check and portray it as it is. The message to the West is probably \u2013 read this article and think for a while about how long we can afford to skimp on materiel to Ukraine. We usually write in the thread that nothing is constant in Ukraine and the army consists of three branches and that it is a very corrupt country. Suddenly things also happen in Ukraine and then the West is left with the whole mess in their lap and has to face the consequences. There is no shortage of voices pointing out that the great decisive moment of our time is happening in Ukraine right now.<\/p>\n

I need some help with this but did the attack at Avdiivka come before or after the marine brigades started wreaking havoc at the Dnieper?
\nI am quite sure we knew that the marine brigades had been pushed back to the Dnieper before Avdiivka started, so UA\u2019s intention was known.<\/p>\n

It is then very strange that RU chooses to burn their reserves at Avdiivka instead of hitting the bridgeheads at the Dnieper or reinforcing the frontline at the southern front first.<\/p>\n

Wild speculation \u2013 since RU seems to have rejected a long war and frozen fronts for a wild offensive, does that mean they do not consider themselves able to conduct this war over time?
\nOne begins to wonder and Estonia\u2019s whatever it was thought they could continue for a year low-intensity, high-intensity as now speculated was not considered.<\/p>\n

We know that RU has done a lot of illogical things just because it is a new commander who wants to keep the job or because they are competing with Wagner but now Gerasinov is in Rostov na Don and knows how it looks over at the Dnieper. Nevertheless, he burns the entire reserve at Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

The Russians are not logical but this is quite unusual even for them because previous offensives have not come at the same time as they are supposed to try to play defensively. The winter offensive came instead of a UA offensive for example and they got to quietly go and die in the potato fields until May 4, 2023 when the spring offensive started.<\/p>\n

Now there is loss of strv ATH which we have already written about but there is more \u2013 IFV third highest, soldiers possibly fourth highest. Artillery, AA, special forces and trucks have decreased which signals frontline attrition. This fits well with both RU attacks at Avdiivka and northern Luhansk and UA offensive operations across the Dnieper and at the southern front.<\/p>\n

It is becoming clear what UA\u2019s combat objectives are at the southern front and they are pushing quietly, we only hear from Russian sources because the opsec veil is heavy.<\/p>\n

They have previously abandoned 50% of captured territory for less than this.<\/p>\n

The next question will probably be whether RU has strategic reserves enough to be able to waste units as they have done now at Avdiivka and up in northern Luhansk?<\/p>\n

My opinion is that they do not have these strategic reserves, 25CAA which has begun to be resourced was reportedly only 12,000, no information about vehicles.<\/p>\n

We have heard about these CAA, AC and new divisions that are to be set up but the first that appeared was substandard at best.<\/p>\n

Surely the Russians will also be able to form a new assault army, train and resource it as long as they get enough time, anyone can.<\/p>\n

But the question is whether they today have strategic reserves and I do not think they have it in the amount needed to prevent Crimea from falling.<\/p>\n

I wrote quite unclearly yesterday but what I was interested in was the account GeneralSVR who has struggled for a long time to get followers and now has burned out. There was immediately moving footage of Putin in some meeting so why did they take that line?<\/p>\n

Anyway, I got a bit worried about the condition of my caviar-eating friend in a bunker out in Altai.
\nAfter all, he only has caviar, a stripper pole, a few bottles of oil and a way too big double bed in a way too big bedroom to entertain himself with. All behind triple layers of security service barriers that he does not trust at all but mostly goes great detours around and looks suspiciously at.<\/p>\n

The food is tasted by three people before he starts eating and then he feels that others have been poking in the food and is no longer hungry. His doctor has long had to force-feed him digestive biscuits so he doesn\u2019t fall asleep hungry.
\nImagine my surprise when I realized that he is GeneralSVR, the name is a bit of idol worship from his KGB days, he always wanted to be in SVR.<\/p>\n

Now I must admit that his messages were more than cryptic, it is likely that he has completely lost it here and that it is some kind of self-projection.
\nMy friend in Altai simply thinks he has caused too much damage now and everything is a cry for help that someone should put him out of his misery because apparently death by caviar is not allowed in the Orthodox Church.
\nSo now you know and that it is only a matter of time, with some risk that I misunderstood something in the communication from my lonely buddy in Altai, half were voice messages and to seem cool he always records them in very broken Swedish with a heavy Russian accent like in a bad action movie \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

A few newsflashes are that Wagner supports local talents in Ghana who aim to overthrow the country\u2019s government \u2013 Russia not only fuels but also creates new conflicts where none exist.
\nThen the party that wants a free Catalonia has been proven to have connections with Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1717744349625086357?s=46&t=mKQUIEtRiuX7R03YmcSj9A<\/a><\/p>\n

This can never be said often enough, the country Russia has a huge debt in a lot of what is bad in the West for the simple reason that while the West tries to make the world better, Russia does its utmost to destabilize the West.<\/p>\n

They now have training camps in several countries in Africa where they train opposition for armed uprisings, alternatively they support a regime in a country \u2013 whatever pays best.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m getting some 1968 vibes from American universities right now, it worked excellently during the Vietnam War so why not dust off that influence operation and run it again. No shortage of films where damn students have to flee lynch mobs so when I say 1968 it\u2019s the same reaction but a slightly different outcome.<\/p>\n

The bridgeheads at the Dnieper seem to be growing daily, unfortunate for the southern front command.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks!<\/p>\n

I think that Putin as GeneralSVR spread the rumor about his death because he wanted to see a flood of posts where people were sad and upset that their father of the nation had passed away.. <\/p>\n

It did not turn out well. It turned out that it was only us in the West spreading the information as we hoped the rumors were actually true..<\/p>\n

Lots of comfort tubes Kalles now for the slime gnome..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, they are trying to carry out diversionary offensives on a weak UA point and so UA has to redeploy.
\nIt is great if you have strong defensive positions but now UA is crossing the Dnieper with the entire marine corps and at the southern front it is faltering considerably.<\/p>\n

The units would have been more useful on the front line at the southern front than storming a slag heap at Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

Yep, 1st Tank is there now so the fun is over for the Russians. The armored brigades are probably the offensive reserve UA has held back so one of them is no longer an offensive reserve as well as the battalions that have been allocated earlier.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

hahaha, yes instead of sympathy he saw how even the bodyguards got drunk and celebrated his demise.
\nComfort tubes Kalles \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Iran and NK are somewhat on the same track as the thread when MENA started, that they have managed to escalate to the next level and that it was according to plan, someone wrote a post about that in the thread right?<\/p>\n

If the first steps are coordinated (which we have not yet seen play out) then there are more steps in this rocket presumably?<\/p>\n

Kim Jong Un probably couldn\u2019t hold back any longer and leaked the evil plan way too early \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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