{"id":8424,"date":"2023-11-04T08:52:13","date_gmt":"2023-11-04T07:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:01:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:01:39","slug":"2023-11-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Erik14 put into words how it felt very good yesterday \u2013 “I am not worried about the war in Ukraine but am angry that the West is dragging its feet”.<\/p>\n

That’s exactly how it is, but far too many now want to make it seem that if you are worried about the West’s sluggishness and the global escalation, then it must also be a critical situation in the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

But that’s not the case.<\/p>\n

Now for good news in the global escalation, H\u2026ah just blinked \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

This is the first good news in over a month and one already feels more lively because right now the escalation steps they feared have been broken. One month into the conflict is quite a long time and enough for the next step up to play out. You may remember that both Iran and H\u2026ah had as a red line that I..el would enter G\u2026a. A bit like Putin’s red lines in other words \u2013 you can jump on them without any consequences.<\/p>\n

Now it remains to be seen what cards China will show going forward, if they take a cool stance on everything then at least I will call off global escalation but we have not seen their poker hand yet.<\/p>\n

Then, just when you didn’t think it could get better, the living legend on two legs Gandalf tops it off by saying that Ukraine has hit a target 700km away with a self-developed missile (rocket I guess Gandalf meant).<\/p>\n

It is none other than Grom 2 that has been fired and you may remember the old catchphrase “a Grom 2 in the Kremlin” which from time to time usually booms out over the thread by a thread member without a singing voice.
\nIt’s coming, it’s coming \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then the blogger let us thread watchers know that Archer is now deployed \u2013 nice to get something for all the tax money and remember that Archer has excellent accuracy with “dumb” 155mm ammunition and that together with Arthur they are the kings of counter-battery fire. They got 12 of them and it should spread death on several fronts.<\/p>\n

Our highness Erik14 posted a Twitter rumor yesterday so it can’t be confirmed yet that Ukraine has both expanded the bridgehead at the Dnieper, started transferring heavy materiel and also pushed reconnaissance deep in.<\/p>\n

There are a few of us who sounded the gong a while ago about the Dnieper but one must not forget that while everyone is yelling about the Russians’ enormous strength (some irony) at Avdiivka, Ukraine has managed to establish a broad bridgehead over at the Dnieper which they have not been able to push back.<\/p>\n

That tells me at least that they do not have unlimited reserves, right?<\/p>\n

Tank brigades have also largely been held back and the mechanized units’ heavy vehicles, so we absolutely have a large offensive UA reserve left that is revving its engines and tired of hot dogs with bread.<\/p>\n

Over at the Dnieper stands the 5th Tank and bides its time and together with the entire marine corps and a not insignificant number of SOF it is a serious blow over there.<\/p>\n

The rumor that they have reached Brylivka with reconnaissance is not as crazy as it sounds because RU has no units in the Oleshky sands so Ukraine can reach quite far just by moving in that area.<\/p>\n

That could also explain why they took out Teplinsky’s headquarters, they had reconnaissance on site?
\nWhat are the Russians going to do now?<\/p>\n

Especially since they have burned 20 (understaffed) brigades up in northern Luhansk and Avdiivka since last summer.
\nTheir offensive reserve is gone \u2013 VDV, reconnaissance, Spetsnaz and marine infantry.<\/p>\n

The “regular” offensive reserve they had left they have probably burned in Avdiivka and up in northern Luhansk. These are ordinary MRR and TR who have been in the rear and in reasonably good shape.<\/p>\n

If they pull units from another front, Ukraine will strike there instead.<\/p>\n

The charm of crossing the Dnieper is the following for those who missed Davyidiv Brid \u2013
\nUkraine crosses at a suitable place and goes on defense under its own artillery umbrella and with a forest of drones.
\nFor the Russian team to reach them they must line up their offensive reserve, or other units that have become offensive, on the highway to get up to UFA, then they must organize themselves and then they must jump on the Ukrainian defense.<\/p>\n

Since all this happens under UA artillery, CAS, ahkp and drones they take astronomical losses even before they reach the defenses.<\/p>\n

Rinse and repeat, which the Russians have now done ever since UA established the bridgehead over at the Antonovsky Bridge.
\nThis kind of thing really stings for the Russians and does not appear in the daily losses because it is indirect weapons and maybe not all is filmed I guess?<\/p>\n

Our guess has been that they will give up the southern front when they are forced to choose and it certainly looks like that right now.<\/p>\n

RU has reinforced all other fronts but let the southern front fight with what they have after the great massacre of the VDV.<\/p>\n

We will see if it is as we think \u2013 that RU has taken proportionally higher losses and UA has managed to preserve offensive capacity for the right moment.<\/p>\n

We have UA’s own figures to go on which are 1:5 as normal during the spring offensive and then it has naturally escalated considerably with Avdiivka, northern Luhansk and Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Personally, I think the thread’s mourning period can now end, I myself was not swept up in it but then I had one of those incidents at work again. It is a talent of the client who from time to time accuses us of colluding with the contractor and cheating the client out of money in inflated invoices. This time it was hard to defend so we had to make an extra effort. If they had taken money they would at least have had it but now we are completely innocent \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Positive \u2013 Positive thus, even when it comes to the global escalation where I was negative \u2013 positive so overall it became neutral \u2013 positive but now the joy meter is through the roof again \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Noel is probably reliable but no switches on this “blame the victim”\u2026<\/p>\n

Give them what they want instead \ud83d\ude21<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1720756839866908764?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Zelensky denies so probably Russian psyops<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1720817357889659230?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Let’s really hope so!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Know I’m not first but the black build is swaying considerably.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/girkingirkin\/status\/1720827385589669951?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Thanks and nice to see you are positive across the board!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1 Erik14 put into words how it felt very good yesterday \u2013 “I am not worried about 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