{"id":8426,"date":"2023-11-05T09:12:02","date_gmt":"2023-11-05T08:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:02:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:02:17","slug":"2023-11-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1720753650815926446?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday we declared that it\u2019s time for the mourning period to end and that it\u2019s positive-positive all the way.<\/p>\n

First you read that Japan will get 12 new corvettes \u2013 a Japanese corvette is probably like a battleship I think, so a nice addition in the Pacific area. Not everyone on our side of the conflict is sleeping through this.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/alexluck9\/status\/1720382762660884856?s=46&t=SCQKfEmLyFE218W4F5xB8A<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Ukraine tops everything by knocking out RU surface ships again \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1720830468474482986?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s notable that as soon as Ukraine gets qualified missiles, high-value targets like surface ships, submarines, or dozens of helicopters go down \u2013 how hard can it be, open the warehouses!<\/p>\n

When we nagged in the thread about Western deliveries, PR for the weapons platform was a strong argument. Several in the thread claimed it was an insignificant factor.
\nThen we found out that the order books for NLAW, 777, CV90 and other platforms overflowed within a few months after they proved competent in combat.
\nHow much positive PR do you think the video below is, far beyond anything the manufacturer could spin themselves with shooting range footage is my guess. When a warring party starts praising a weapons system \u2013 it\u2019s hard to get better PR than that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1720758902969585956?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n

How hard can it be \u2013 do good, get positive PR, lift your own country and use the weapons for what they are built for \u2013 decimate the Russian army.<\/p>\n

The opsec cover is tight but there is still movement at the Dnipro and apparently UA has conducted counterattacks at Avdiivka, again.<\/p>\n

If I understand this correctly, RU has reinforced with new units at Bakhmut as well?<\/p>\n

Then when it\u2019s quiet, worry always spreads and the pessimists take over. The Russian losses are absolutely astronomical, they have lost 20% of their tanks in one month.<\/p>\n

Most metrics have hit the ceiling summer and autumn and that is still after 1.5 years of war.
\nI have high confidence in Radu Hossu and he is on site and reports that there are very intense battles over a large area on the left bank of the Dnipro.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/raduhossu\/status\/1720625603236241864?s=46&t=NpuJgv3wVCKeIl7okzgD7A<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there are small subtle notices that slip by. For example, Zelensky has promised to retaliate eye-for-an-eye for all Russian attacks on UA infrastructure this winter.
\nYou might remember the guy in the thread who used to talk about the \u201cdrone swarms\u201d before the spring offensive started and all focus landed on that.
\nHold my beer \u2013
\n(am I using that expression correctly?)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1721065906241957907?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a> <\/p>\n

I\u2019ll put another five hundred from Erik14 that Ukraine can and probably will pour death over Russia very soon and that it will be effective. The country Russia has not adapted anything for war which Ukraine has been forced to do since the war started.<\/p>\n

There have also been several puzzle pieces of information that make the global escalation of the axis of evil no longer look so increasing. That H\u2026ah chickened out is a biggie.
\nYes, the demonstrations in the West are fueled by RU. But the West is slowly waking up to the fact that their pro-p\u2026a left is also glowing anti-sem\u2026.ers and I think we see some sobering up.<\/p>\n

Notable is that the protests are already starting to be against the government and \u201cthe elite\u201d and we guessed that as soon as they started \u2013 classic Russian tactic.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noclador\/status\/1720942352506802687?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

The decade\u2019s best influence operation came from I..el and the leaflets with the kidnapped children that are always torn down \u2013 hats off. It has probably contributed to the West starting to think.<\/p>\n

Then our media still can\u2019t filter and have source criticism, here it is BBC that jumped on that movie star in G\u2026a with 30 different jobs \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1720943960477081646?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

Remember here that in Iran there are big protests against the sitting dictatorship.
\nHere it is P\u2026as president who is going hard against H..as
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/marionawfal\/status\/1720999377177604187?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

I have also seen several videos of civilians in G\u2026a who are openly critical of H..as.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1720889290039709955?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a>
\nCracks in the facade to say the least and very good \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

But Russian subversive activity and psyops are plodding along as they always have \u2013
\nFirst it gets coverage in the media that the West will force UA to negotiations, \u201canonymous American representative\u201d (classic Russian psyops).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1720756839866908764?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a>
\nZelensky denies \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1720817357889659230?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Putin himself is part of that influence operation that UA sells weapons to H..as that Budanov warned us about a month ago.
\nNow maybe one can start to accept that UA has eyes inside the Kremlin\u2019s inner circles?
\nTime for the FSB reading this thread to start wondering who it is that talks among the Russian representatives, is it Putin himself who can\u2019t keep quiet?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1720426358214365512?s=46&t=SCQKfEmLyFE218W4F5xB8A<\/a><\/p>\n

And then of course the threat of nuclear escalation, here it is a famous artist pressing the red button to the audience\u2019s cheers \u2013 just as he was instructed to do so the West will see the film.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1720901218963181764?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

PerraG55 shows in his daily posts commendably how Russia has been able to build up its war chest for subversive activities and we constantly ask how the West can fall for all the disinformation after 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

If one dares to guess \u2013 if the West scrutinized established media, it would probably come out that Russia has bought into a bit of everything in order to get out its narratives, which they have succeeded very well with.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1721046116718846124?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

I don\u2019t want to go as far as the tweeter below but the point he makes is worth highlighting \u2013 if the West does nothing because they are worried about Russian victory then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, right?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/mattlightcrim\/status\/1720506075185582452?s=46&t=SCQKfEmLyFE218W4F5xB8A<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I have many times pointed out that Ukraine is not Batman and that there are three different branches in the army that must cooperate and a mosaic of different wills \u2013 at any time there can be a big shift and Russian subversive activity is working overtime in Ukraine to fuel this. I have also often written because of the above that the West is playing a very high-stakes game here and IF Ukraine crashes then the West sits with the whole mess on its lap and has to consider whether our time\u2019s Chamberlain moment was the right path to take.<\/p>\n

It is my conviction that Ukraine will hold together but it is a risk the West takes to prolong this war \u2013 a risk the West should never have accepted if they had done their risk analysis so probably Russian influence is behind and pulling in the opposite direction.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/j_jhelin\/status\/1720834968446767458?s=46&t=fV5mEfftFKnYx745Ibomaw<\/a><\/p>\n

It can never be said too often \u2013 the West must designate Russia as a \u201cstate sponsor of terrorism\u201d now that they have demonstrably actively supported H\u2026as so we can flush out the subversive activities in the West using the existing anti-terrorism legislation. Anything else is malpractice.
\nConsider that then Russia\u2019s entire black war chest (including companies) can be confiscated for subversive activities and sent to Ukraine \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

There are rumors (since I haven\u2019t heard it from Dengamle himself but from Budanov who has vented his frustration) that Dengamle is at the Dnieper and is tiring everyone out. Ukraine, true to form, has methodically built up their river crossing by taking all the islands in the river and then managing everything in between \u2014 ammunition, troops, wounded, maintenance, etc. All on a small scale so no FAB1500 can knock out too much.<\/p>\n

They are building up their bridgehead bit by bit and the rumor now circulating is that they have gone in with deep reconnaissance and started transferring armored vehicles \u2013 whether true or not we do not yet know.
\nDengamle considers this too little, too late in all categories and has on several occasions tried to command the engineer battalion with the bridge layers to lay a four-lane pontoon bridge straight across the river.
\nEach time Budanov has had to redirect his interest elsewhere with some made-up mission and a lot of strong liquor.<\/p>\n

The vision is apparently the crossing of the Great Belt \u2013 everything at once with drums, trumpets, banners, and pikemen in the lead. He has even trained a poor group to march with pikes that he bought on Amazon from the USA.
\nRight now Budanov has almost had to drop everything else to keep an eye on Dengamle so he doesn\u2019t completely crash the Dnipro campaign, but he seems to have developed good skill in that after 1.5 years of damage control.<\/p>\n

On the subject of things going well, here is an MTLB with a BMP-1 turret, weld together the worst you have and it gets even worse.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1720650121640050777?s=46&t=NpuJgv3wVCKeIl7okzgD7A<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I refuse to let go of the idea that UA would be as bad as many claim, here is another edited video of armored I\u2026a vehicles being knocked out. Some are APCs with infantry inside standing in built-up areas without surrounding defense. This is the world\u2019s best army on paper.
\nUkraine has the world\u2019s best infantry.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1721000779220205880?s=46&t=07jln9KOHPYa2Fl0uvX0kg<\/a><\/p>\n

There was a suggestion earlier in the thread that the West should train UA officers \u2013 the US has actually been doing that since the early 2000s. Then after 2014 training in Ukraine really got underway.<\/p>\n

A reflection here regarding the 128th mountain brigade\u2019s award ceremony that RU hit with a missile right in the middle (or was it artillery?). That signals to me that RU can if they want to, right? An award ceremony an hour and 20 km behind the front lines and a direct hit.
\nAll these thousands of missiles against civilian buildings should reasonably then be part of their terror strategy?
\nThere is no shortage of war crimes but it is notable that this is highly deliberate action for something the pro-Russian side ALWAYS claims as a defense A1 is that all civilian targets hit were mistakes.<\/p>\n

Positive-Positive then, the bridgehead near the Dnieper is expanding strongly and the fact that RU has not managed to push back company-sized crossings speaks volumes to me. If it turns out that armored vehicles have crossed over, it is very exciting but remains to be seen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

That detail is often missed, many of those in the demonstrations in the West are not welcome \u2013 there have been P\u2026ers who wrote under pictures with \u201cqueers for P\u2026a\u201d that they do not want their support, for example.<\/p>\n

To me it is very clear that it is a group that associates with this support because of the broader ideology and affiliation but they don\u2019t have the full picture for themselves, or that some details are not given priority.<\/p>\n

For P\u2026a LGBTQ people who have fled, it must be absolutely terrible to see the rainbow flag in these demonstrations and one might still think that the LGBTQ movement\u2019s first and most important task would be to support LGBTQB people in these countries, not the state that actively oppresses them or throws them from high buildings?<\/p>\n

To me the logic doesn\u2019t quite add up 100% here.<\/p>\n

I am also absolutely shocked at how highly educated people with good jobs in the West with roots in MENA completely lose it as soon as this comes up and that there are placards with \u201cgas all the j..s\u201d in the demonstrations but right now a lot is upside down and not as it should be.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

What does the thread think, maybe the Russians will refrain from attacks on Ukraine\u2019s power infrastructure this winter for fear of retaliation?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks, insightful reading as usual!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks for a brilliant obituary this morning \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

There is a lot that is incomprehensible regarding the p*lestinian demonstrations in the West. When you see placards equating j*ws with Nazis while at the same time wanting to exterminate all j*ws.. Doesn\u2019t seem like they have really thought it through..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I know Magnus Ek from P10 and he trains a mechanized brigade, one of two interviewed in Kvartal below.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/kvartal.se\/artiklar\/svenske-soldaten-i-ukraina-korruptionen-ar-ett-stort-problem\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Interesting that Magnus is on the same page as LW, that it\u2019s starting to be time to send troops and not just equipment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

hahaha, well there goes all my argument because I didn\u2019t check the source \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t quite share your view on the orders,
\nNLAW
\nhttps:\/\/breakingdefense.com\/2023\/02\/saab-plans-huge-ramp-up-in-nlaw-production-to-reach-400000-units-a-year\/<\/a>
\n777
\nhttps:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/bae-u-s-in-talks-to-restart-m777-howitzer-production-after-ukraine-success-11665307803<\/a>
\nCV90 was many different ones, Sweden not least and then 246 from Slovakia I think but also the Dutch
\nhttps:\/\/www.janes.com\/defence-news\/news-detail\/future-armoured-vehicles-survivability-2022-production-of-dutch-cv90s-with-new-turret-to-begin-in-december<\/a>
\nCesar artillery \u2013 record year
\nhttps:\/\/defence-industry.eu\/nexter-a-record-year-for-caesar-artillery-system-orders\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This video makes it very clear to me that some groups in the pro-P..a protests don\u2019t have a grasp on the issues.<\/p>\n

They have pooled together different groups.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1720961267462983826?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I think this means conscription for everyone but voluntary participation in the war?<\/p>\n

Feels quite humane?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1721156200945872967?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Sitting and watching another where Soviet flags have come out.<\/p>\n

It feels like they have activated all groups that seem to have a common denominator in their hatred of J\u2026s but it is a bit unusual that the demonstrations are this broad.<\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if the right wing is gearing up soon and it gets really lively.<\/p>\n

Russian influence at its worst.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Helicopter base in flames \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1721237873972691116?s=46&t=1_pcg0sV4sPT-4SuL23WYQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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