{"id":8440,"date":"2023-11-11T09:09:28","date_gmt":"2023-11-11T08:09:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-11-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:04:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:04:28","slug":"2023-11-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

According to rumors, RU has prepared a strike of 40,000 troops near Avdiivka. It is unclear whether this is now or cumulative, so if so, they are 15,000 fewer today.<\/p>\n

If you consider that most of the offensive reserve should have come from northern Luhansk and then 12,000 troops were added from the 25th CAA, northern Luhansk is likely severely short on units now.<\/p>\n

They have had their own Avdiivka up there with 10 brigades basically wiped out.
\n30,000 more, what is that (40,000 \u2013 25 CAA) \u2013 8 more brigades?<\/p>\n

And they pulled the entire VDV from that area as well as a spetsnaz brigade, which was the offensive reserve.<\/p>\n

-Northern Luhansk is today also understaffed for defense if UA goes on the offensive in that area with sufficient numbers.<\/p>\n

Then it is still quiet up at the northern front, Putin is counting coldly on the West continuing to do his bidding \ud83e\udd2c
\n-A larger operation at the northern front would achieve great success, at least Belgorod.<\/p>\n

I guess RU defense at the Dnipro is around +20,000 troops in units and that it is mostly third-rate and infantry without vehicles. Definitely less than 30,000.
\nThere are about thirty units there, 5-6 are in very poor condition and 15 are battalion groups, I guess.<\/p>\n

-That\u2019s how I think it looks around the Dnipro and the marines can cut through that defense now that they have established their bridgeheads. There are hundreds of armored vehicles, elite units, large amounts of SOF, many drone weapons, artillery, AHKP and special aircraft slowly expanding the bridgeheads. It will not die out there.<\/p>\n

Yesterday we saw a video on the blog where a column of trucks was taken out deep behind the Dnipro front.
\nSince we already have the results from Kherson, we now understand that Ukraine is taking out everything on the highway deep inside so the Dnipro front becomes as isolated as Kherson \u2013 hard to get supplies and reserves forward when they die on the road.<\/p>\n

This one is a bit exciting, UA last night took out two targets deep inside Russian territory in Kolomna and Kotovsk \u2013 high-value targets.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1723102440138899651?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time, they announced that if RU strikes UA\u2019s electrical infrastructure this winter, UA will strike RU\u2019s oil industry \u2013 refineries, pipelines, and oil fields presumably?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1723140383285146026?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

This is incredibly clever, it worked with the Russian navy so why not with terror bombings?
\nWe in the thread have guessed this for a while now when UA said something about \u201can eye for an eye\u201d or whatever it was regarding the presumed terror bombing this winter.
\nMy guess is that if it even starts, it will stop quite quickly when the oil fields start burning Kuwait-style. Ukraine knows exactly how RU will react.<\/p>\n

The thread has rung the bell for a long time now about the crossing over the Dnipro, when we found out that the marines were moved back to Kherson we realized where it was heading so below is no news. David D is interesting because he has taken a similar positive position as the thread and backs it up with facts but completely outside the usual perception. So far I think he is often right \u2013 for example with the counterattacks at Avdiivka.
\nThe exercise below can perhaps be seen as the best but he tries to assess the force ratios between UA and RU at the Dnipro.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1723188953270915189?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the Czech Republic\u2019s contribution to UA which has now been declassified, it is much more than we knew. It is only the country of the Czech Republic.
\nPoland is a big donor, Bulgaria, then you remember those twelve countries that contributed Eastern equipment that wanted to be secret, hundreds of Leo1s and so on \u2013 Ukraine has received enormous amounts of equipment.
\nI am of the opinion that Ukraine has parity in tanks and above all better tanks with decent fire control while RU gets more T62 and T54-55.
\nAt Novoprokopivka, Leo2 hit exactly a regiment\u2019s T62 which did not have the range and knocked out huge numbers.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1723062717752254786?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Oryx has 84 knocked-out T62s for the Russians and the first T54-55s. This means that RU uses T62 in large numbers. Since Oryx underreports and not everything is knocked out, RU probably has 600 T62s at the fronts or thereabouts?
\nThey are counted in the Russian total.<\/p>\n

Perpetua\u2019s anecdotal losses but they show a constant overweight for RU.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1723187259887730827?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

We also have a derailed train in Ryazan after an explosion \u2013 acts of sabotage are increasing exponentially right now.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1723243941955277083?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

On Twitter, the algorithms have started pushing nazi.. rhetoric in the feeds from obviously pro-Russian accounts. It is against I..el of course but there are references to gas, camps, and that the man with the mustache was right. Without extrapolating further than that, these are strange times we live in.<\/p>\n

Ending with a feelgood video, while Russian soldiers desecrate, torture and murder these children, the Ukrainian soldiers are just like us which we in the thread knew but the stories about murdering naz\u2026ers refuse to die out, a neat Russian influence operation.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/slavauk30722777\/status\/1723197958852931882?s=46&t=i7Hn_qJF_2TNnLQyUxYFGg<\/a><\/p>\n

I’m getting used to going against the current and can always go hide in the economic threads when it gets too violent but I still don\u2019t see the reasons for the thread\u2019s depression which is slowly starting to lift here \ud83d\ude00
\n-There is a high level of liberation acts in Russia.
\n-Russia is getting ammunition from NK and is asking countries that sent exported weapons to return them \u2013 100 helicopter engines from Egypt, you can guess how the helicopter fleet is doing, right?
\n-The Dnipro offensive is not scouts in kayaks, it is a serious attempt and it has been obvious for a long time.
\n-Avdiivka and northern Luhansk are going extremely badly for the Russians, they are losing huge amounts of equipment and soldiers.
\n-Ukraine has burned through the Russian stockpiles and Russia has de facto not mobilized \u2013 the latest is indisputable.
\n-In one month Russia lost 20% of all tanks they have in the war, including the at least 30% that are out of order.
\n-Western support is not faltering \u2013 the EU has just made Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine candidate countries for the EU.<\/p>\n

Surely the West should do more, it has been a consistent problem throughout the war but that does not mean Russia is winning, only that Ukraine suffers more than necessary.<\/p>\n

Everyone reading the following should think once about this \u2013 what do you think is the associated risk of mobilizing the 1-2 million Russian men and giving them the weapons that would be needed to if not win the war then at least achieve a ceasefire?<\/p>\n

The Russian elite are absolutely terrified of popular revolution and 1-2 million men under arms are unstoppable. The first unit that got some freedom tried to carry out a palace coup and the VDV had promised Prigozhin their support but betrayed him at the last moment.<\/p>\n

It_has_already_happened.<\/p>\n

The last thing the Russian elite wants is millions of angry armed Russians \u2013 there will be no mobilization.<\/p>\n

The fact that the Russians have not managed to push Ukraine back across the Dnieper is a very clear sign of where this is heading.
\nRussian losses since last summer and up until now have been all-time high in most respects and remain at a high level.<\/p>\n

When we get there, we will see the level above positive-positive but not yet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dThanks!
\nMany positive parts in today’s essay that together clearly point in the right direction.<\/p>\n

I think it’s a bit of a shame that they warned when it comes to striking Russia’s energy sector but hopefully it might act as a deterrent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

A clear green upward arrow for Ukraine and a red downward pointing arrow for Russia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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