{"id":8442,"date":"2023-11-12T10:37:48","date_gmt":"2023-11-12T09:37:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-12-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:04:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:04:54","slug":"2023-11-12-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-12-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I always thought that UA would cross the Dnieper further north at Berezanka and establish a bridgehead, but they damn well haven\u2019t listened to my WhatsApp \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a map circulating showing a disputed area at the Dnieper extending maybe 20km inland. It\u2019s probably based on Russian information that UA created a kill zone 25km inland using drones.
\nIf the Russian information is correct, Ukraine now has a bridgehead where they can start transferring heavy equipment and expand.<\/p>\n

The Russian strategy of pushing in more equipment and soldiers than they lose doesn\u2019t win any wars, right?
\nSo it\u2019s not about inflicting more damage on Ukraine than they take themselves, capturing strategically important terrain or other key objectives they succeed in, but the result is really just trying to replace what is lost and hoping for a miracle. Putin is already out of favor with those in charge, so there will be no miracles.<\/p>\n

Wet is good because it\u2019s the Russians who are lying in trenches on the southern front and are soaking wet now, anyone who has been soaking wet in the forest on a late autumn day knows how quickly you head towards zero \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1723328235344146519?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now UA is attacking at Bakhmut and south of Bakhmut again, which is brilliant \u2013 we previously received information that RU had reinforced and UA slowed down. Now RU is supposed to attack the railway embankment and it will cost them incredibly.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Flash_news_ua\/status\/1723593589257552375?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Erik14 brought up the 810th Marine Infantry yesterday and that they have reinforced the Dnieper, they were previously on the southern front. I was going to write today about the condition of the unit but David D beat me to it so I\u2019m posting his link.
\nThey have been decimated incredibly hard and there are probably a few hundred left \u2013 not much of a strategic reserve there\u2026
\nAccording to David D they also lack most things, which is perfect.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1723490890369442001?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

Again, anecdotal evidence of artillery shortage for RU.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1723564538409177195?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve said a few times that Macron is a good candidate for Chamberlain \u2013 we give you Macron. https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1723335226431057983?s=46&t=dtvLblMOiEuCh78qRLVJlg<\/a><\/p>\n

My interpretation is that Iran did not get the other MENA countries on board as they had hoped. The statement that was signed was watered down (in context), in my opinion.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1723384952937464010?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

T
\nhere is something wrong in Russia right now but what we don\u2019t know yet. Patrushev\u2019s speech, a Putin filmed with high cheekbones, Putin campaigning, Kadyrov against FSN and other highly unsubstantial rumors. We\u2019ll see but my coffee grounds say something is up, it could be anything from an internal power struggle to a death \u2013 we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

I consider it proven as far as possible that he has body doubles, credible researchers have spoken on the matter.
\nSomething that reinforces this is the rumor that Kadyrov is out of favor with the FSB, Kadyrov is one of Putin\u2019s allies.<\/p>\n

Absolutely sh1t war this is, everyone has been scared at some point but most have a daily life that works \u2013 you get attacked by a gang, conflict at work, armed robbery, children getting hurt, illness in the family or similar.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1723396669058801855?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1723342632603033975?s=46&t=8AWsmJzYXFJKcK-MWGyZpQ<\/a><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian soldiers and families waiting live with this fear, anxiety, and stress level every day around the clock that one might feel oneself occasionally.<\/p>\n

Personal skills don\u2019t matter, on the eastern front it\u2019s chance that decides and the soldiers constantly see others who get terrible injuries and then they have to continue, day after day.<\/p>\n

There were many former SOF veterans with combat experience from Iraq and Afghanistan who joined the international legion but left because of the intensity, but the Ukrainian soldiers don\u2019t have that luxury.<\/p>\n

There is a lot written about this but over too long a time one takes permanent damage and 1.5 years with hundreds of thousands of soldiers at the fronts and a large number of wounded is a national trauma.<\/p>\n

This war has gone on too long and the intensity of the violence has been too high.
\nThis one was too much \ud83d\ude2d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1723384813762023803?s=46&t=dtvLblMOiEuCh78qRLVJlg<\/a><\/p>\n

The 1991 borders as soon as possible should be what the West is sitting and pondering now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday a planted news story came out that it was a UA colonel in the intelligence service who could be linked to the explosion of NS1-2. The notes that made the rounds were low on information but the headline was that Ukraine can be linked to the explosion.
\nWapo was the source but the colonel is in Ukrainian prison and the original source was TASS.
\nBild and Wapo picked up something from TASS that got wide spread in Western media and the headline was that now it is indisputable that Ukraine is behind it.<\/p>\n

Why has the West completely let go of the Russian ship suitable for underwater work that can be linked to NS1-2 and Baltic connector, all information about this has been posted in the thread several times?
\nAs said, the group leader at GRU is probably tired of champagne by now and soon needs a new box for all the medals\u2026<\/p>\n

Do you remember the beginning of this war when you weren\u2019t supposed to be too harsh, you weren\u2019t allowed to speak badly about Russians and videos of dead Russians, or dying, were too strong and would traumatize others if linked to?
\nNow 1.5 years later the thread is probably quite well calibrated but one wonders a bit if some accounts that pushed this were maybe for influence purposes?<\/p>\n

Trying to prevent the thread from posting what would shape opinion against Russia?
\nDon\u2019t know but it struck me yesterday.<\/p>\n

Recently saw that Amnesty employees were filmed taking down those posters with the missing I\u2026a children.
\nOne reflection is that Ukraine has been enormously specially treated by many of the organizations and others one thought belonged to the \u201cgood\u201d side.
\nThen after October 7 the same groups have come out strongly against I\u2026el.<\/p>\n

And the demonstrations are now beginning to direct their hatred towards the government, the \u201celite\u201d, the flag and everything else that is explosive.
\nI can\u2019t quite put my finger on exactly how it fits together but I\u2019m starting to wonder if Russia has marinated the groups they infiltrated so hard that they have basically become radicalized and that people are found as employees in the UN, RC, Amnesty and all the other organizations, not least the peace movement. That activists have taken employment in organizations they feel work with what they are passionate about?<\/p>\n

Then when the Ukraine war started they all ended up on the wrong side of the truth, on the Russian side of the truth?
\nThe blog and the thread have probably worked their way to a battery of concrete examples of Russian influence, psyops and subversive activity where there is really no doubt about authenticity?<\/p>\n

And here Western governments should reasonably start to get worried and the easiest way to the goal is to make Russia a state sponsor of terrorism and unleash the security services because then you have a clear mandate and delimitation.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of the war, we discussed it for some time beforehand and I concluded that I had fallen for Russian psyops in the beginning after 2014, lost interest in the years before the war, and then had as the best option that RU would take the terrain up to the Dnieper \u2013 simply miscalibrated but when the first shot was fired, one ended up right because it was black and white.<\/p>\n

Never forget that there is no alternative other than Russia being out of Ukraine up to the 1991 borders \u2013 it is inevitable.
\nAnyone who claims otherwise, is worried about something else, or does not believe it is possible is down and spinning in the Russian psyops rabbit hole.<\/p>\n

I am worried that M@sk went out in an interview saying that Ukraine should negotiate (give up land..), he has de facto an enormous reach and many listen to him. On Twitter, it is now straight down into the Third Reich again with a lot about the man with the mustache being right and so on \u2013 it is unpleasant to see.
\nBlaming the victim and all that, why doesn\u2019t he ask Russia to leave Ukraine?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1723289464586334582?s=46&t=dtvLblMOiEuCh78qRLVJlg<\/a><\/p>\n

It is also Western pro-Russian accounts that have the greatest reach on Twitter even though they shouldn\u2019t have it, they appear in everyone\u2019s feeds and get rocket speed from the algorithms.
\nCambridge Analytica\u2019s election influence was, among other things, to succeed in getting messages they wanted out into Facebook users\u2019 news feeds and they succeeded.<\/p>\n

Now M@sk has bought Twitter and gets out his narratives in a similar way \u2013 antisemitism, anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia and so on. This is a problem because whoever gets their message out has an advantage.
\nSurely no sensible person goes in and reads on the MSB website, right?<\/p>\n

I have a list of UA accounts and very little of what those accounts write comes out in the feed on that list, I have to go directly to the accounts to see the latest so it feels like they are actively limiting the reach for these. The whole point of the list is that everything they post comes up in it.<\/p>\n

Now it has lit up in Spain, besides the P\u2026a protests they have thrown in Catalonia\u2019s liberation (proven contacts with the Russians) and the right wing with Vox. One of the founders was conveniently shot.<\/p>\n

I have seen videos where the P\u2026a movement now goes against the \u201cpoppies\u201d in the UK on Remembrance Day \u2013 that is basically sacred and the British take this very seriously and the far right absolutely does not like that.<\/p>\n

Microsoft finds Russian psyops with AI, we don\u2019t need AI because once you start learning this you recognize the fingerprints everywhere.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1723507772342534219?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is a fake Khan, London\u2019s mayor, who says they should cancel Remembrance Day and prioritize the P\u2026a protests. Explosive to say the least \u2013 a Muslim mayor desecrating the most sacred thing they have.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/shashj\/status\/1723330945850225053?s=46&t=WUuDClcjQE0ifyRu177L3w<\/a><\/p>\n

The right wing is likely already activated in the UK.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1723333341863182843?s=46&t=8AWsmJzYXFJKcK-MWGyZpQ<\/a><\/p>\n

I feel more and more that the citizens in Russia are deeply marinated in this now the more I see from the \u201cman on the street\u201d. Have you noticed that in G\u2026a more and more civilians openly express their contempt for H\u2026as \u2013 there it has broken loose.
\nYes \u2013 a serious shake-up is probably needed and my thought is that Crimea is enough for that then the bottom will fall out.<\/p>\n

Just like in G\u2026a where they have a chance to get rid of the criminal clan maybe Russia will get rid of its criminal clan.<\/p>\n

And shame on the West for having facilitated and supported this thoroughly corrupt criminal clan system in both countries \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

The West MUST take Russian subversive activities seriously, this is a prioritized activity in Russia and they push it hard \u2013 they are at war with the West.<\/p>\n

As we guessed, the P\u2026a demonstrations have turned into a general attack on the country and things that citizens value highly \u2013 all to make the opposition as angry as possible.<\/p>\n

In Spain, they mix in the Catalonia liberation movement, in the UK they attack Remembrance Day and so on.
\nRussia tries to create as much discord as possible in the West and in the USA they have de facto succeeded in paralyzing politics right now so that necessary aid packages to Ukraine fail to materialize.<\/p>\n

Why Scholz is being stubborn with Taurus is a bit unclear but since F-16 is a done deal, Taurus is the next weapon for Russia to try to slow down so we can be completely sure that the missing Taurus is thanks to Russian influence.<\/p>\n

Then the West must naturally walk a tightrope here because you cannot fight a dictatorship by becoming a dictatorship but terror-designating Russia or making them a \u201cstate sponsor of terrorism\u201d is an open goal after their proven support to H\u2026as.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Well written!<\/p>\n

Agree, designate them as terrorists so it\u2019s possible to fight them more effectively.<\/p>\n

#RussiaIsATerroristState<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Boat again today so no post but trying to understand the logic in abandoning the Dnieper but attacking in other places?<\/p>\n

That both TASS and RIA went out simultaneously can only mean that there is a preparation even if it was too early?<\/p>\n

Could it be the NS line through Melitopol?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Or maybe they just plan to retreat to escape artillery fire from the right side so that they themselves can still control the left with their own? Seems strange if they are going to pull back far, then they leave the road open.<\/p>\n

Either way, if it is a withdrawal it is a serious sign of weakness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:44 \u2013 Johan No.1 I always thought that UA would cross the Dnieper further north at Berezanka and establish a 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