{"id":8450,"date":"2023-11-16T10:06:12","date_gmt":"2023-11-16T09:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-16-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:06:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:06:22","slug":"2023-11-16-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-16-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There were many kind comments the day before yesterday despite a late post that ended up in the freezer completely by my own fault, which I never replied to but read all \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

It certainly looks like it is heading towards consolidation and a big goodwill gesture over at the Dnieper. According to Rybar, the marine brigades have started offensive operations on a broad front north of Oleshky together with the reconnaissance battalion, I think it was the 130th, so it has in that case been pulled from the southern front.
\nUkraine has officially announced that it has established itself on the left bank.<\/p>\n

The area between Hola Prystan \u2013 Nova Khakovka is probably what the thread has interpreted as an area with a lot of cover where it is easy to build up a bridgehead and you can jump down into the trench systems towards Krunky and then appear over at Nova Khakovka as well, so that will fall.
\nHowever, there are many Russian fortifications in the fields east of Nova Khakovka \u2013 an unsuitable attack vector.<\/p>\n

IF it is true that RU has withdrawn to the south of the east-west road E97 in some places, it only means that they are leaving the field free for Ukraine to transfer artillery, air defense, and heavy vehicles and seriously expand the bridgehead. They have abandoned an area at least 5 km deep and according to the maps, the fortifications end there.<\/p>\n

As far as I know, there is no well-prepared defense connected to that road, but RU is just choosing the best terrain they can retreat to and a road is no more than that \u2013 a road and a ditch to lie and freeze in.
\nAnd they are retreating because they have to, right, otherwise they would have stayed at the Dnieper!<\/p>\n

Since they are idiots, they have built all defense around Oleshky sands so infantry can get far just by walking through that area. We have already had videos of SOF marching through the dunes.<\/p>\n

FAB500 and FAB1500 are an absolute scourge, apparently they are dropped at least 50 km from the front and UA has trouble knocking them out but the possibly positive thing is that the Russians think they do not hit very often with them anyway.
\nBut\u2026
\nIf the front moves, they are useless because RU does not know where to drop them, then it will be some pontoon bridge here and there that gets a deck blown off but UA can live with that.
\nFAB500 and FAB1500 are deadly against static targets.
\nSU25s have also been dropping like flies lately so clearly UA has gotten its air defense screen going.
\nI have wondered if it is possible to infiltrate SOF with man-portable air defense that can take out the FAB500 traps?<\/p>\n

Then we should keep an eye on strategic reserves at the Dnieper \u2013 as far as I know there are about 12,000 down in Crimea in available units but that is the defense of Crimea that would then be moved.
\nApart from a couple of brigades from the southern front, I have not noted any additional units.<\/p>\n

I stand by what I speculated around the turn of the year or thereabouts that Ukraine can, and now has, created its own \u201cair supremacy\u201d with drones but on the other hand, they have failed to deny the Russians air supremacy with their air defense so far. I had thought that UA by now would be better equipped with air defense \u2013 stubborn West never changes.<\/p>\n

We who have followed the legend on presumably two legs MXT\u2019s epic postings every morning know that they have thoroughly combated the artillery and \u201cspecial equipment.\u201d The artillery had to be removed because UA took 70% of its losses from it but special was also these EW systems that jam the drones.<\/p>\n

Now there are veritable drone swarms at the Dnieper and Avdiivka and at the Dnieper UA has established a 25 km wide no-go zone with drones according to the Russians.
\nThis is exactly the same effect that would have been achieved with air supremacy and for the drone weapon it does not matter that RU air is active or not, right?<\/p>\n

The Russians are taking absolutely astronomical losses from the drone weapon and they have enough to be able to hunt down individual soldiers who are knocked out and then they do not economize but it is mass production.
\nWe are now, for example at the Dnieper, in a situation where Ukraine has \u201cair supremacy\u201d and we know how that usually goes, right?
\nThen it apparently is demonstrably possible to get a large number of drones to the fronts, we know from before that UA bought equipment for 100,000 drones before China blocked it.
\nOne drone one hit, right?<\/p>\n

I also think that the drones can be a good complement to the artillery if, against all odds, it would become low on shells but so far the Russians consider it armageddon at the southern front and Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

At Avdiivka, Vuhledar, northern Luhansk and a bit at Bakhmut, RU rarely reaches the attack objectives but is knocked out before with mines and indirect capabilities.
\nIt is indisputable that the imperialistic, and shining, Russian army is incapable of offensive operations in this war \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

ATACMS, cluster munitions and rockets aside, Ukraine seems to have succeeded in starting mass killing with civilian quadcopters and attached RPG or winged grenade for direct hits. You are absolutely flooded with videos of this right now.
\nAll methods are good, right.<\/p>\n

The global escalation we discussed over a month ago has developed in a very exciting direction, in a positive-positive direction from having been negative-positive.<\/p>\n

Iran has completely backed out, I interpret that as they did not know H\u2026as plans which meant that RU ran a Russian and hoped that MENA would ignite by itself. This is enormously important because it completely takes the edge off the speculations from that guy in the thread who keeps talking about his multi-stage rocket \u2013 the rocket has no more stages in MENA!!
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/IranIntl_En\/status\/1724801629504086099?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

I..el is, however, a bit too harsh in their rhetoric right now which is strange but the US probably has quiet talks with them.<\/p>\n

Then to the biggest news \u2013 China has made a reconciliation trip to the US because their economy is shaky.
\nThis is more olive branches than Xi could carry.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1724884738819961163?s=46&t=gFHbqmNr7aEeJNRNjrJNVA<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Gerashchenko_en\/status\/1724854648194941323?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

There is someone in the thread who thinks that China has thrown Russia under the bus and that Russia has already lost the war \u2013 he might not be entirely wrong \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

For me, it actually looks like Russia is being abandoned?
\nYes, they got H\u2026as on board and jumped on an escalation but MENA did not bite the bait and China has sobered up.
\nThis looks enormously good right now, H..as carried out its terror attack on October 7 and for over a month the rest of MENA has kept itself in check. There is a high probability that H..as will be wiped out and then everything will return to normal, if the US can get I..el not to be completely unreasonable.<\/p>\n

China is currently driving the bus back and forth over a fairly small body that resembles a pi\u00f1ata.
\nNK will not be able to spare much more than they have sent and China will not send offensive weapons to Russia \u2013 we can be sure of that.<\/p>\n

Now this is Chuck but also a chicken\u2026 Possible protests against the war in Russia brewing \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/chuckpfarrer\/status\/1724898912996086114?s=46&t=gFHbqmNr7aEeJNRNjrJNVA<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Ukraine has been active and stolen a small piece of the ceasefire line near Horlivka \u2013 RU is not as strong as they want us to believe, or as some rather don\u2019t believe in the thread.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1725068436827709867?s=46&t=tuMQTEqzMPkrOwlBqxAv-A<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is quite unpleasant, a sniper rifle with grenades \u2013 China.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/mylordbebo\/status\/1724062348506202377?s=46&t=XHkITFvEj4Vcb60o55N-xw<\/a><\/p>\n

Lastly on this for the archive that there are now reports about journalists who have received 600,000 USD from Russia and who have written pro-Russian articles \u2013 exactly as the thread usually guesses, right?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1724494272961867987?s=46&t=ldtpoeSdfnHilnDM8xV7TA<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1724494511450083542?s=46&t=ldtpoeSdfnHilnDM8xV7TA<\/a><\/p>\n

Abramovich is also a pro-Russian asset even though he has claimed otherwise.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1724459165802766740?s=46&t=ldtpoeSdfnHilnDM8xV7TA<\/a><\/p>\n

And the gateway for the black Russian war chest is Cyprus, so now we know that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1724489451907215845?s=46&t=ldtpoeSdfnHilnDM8xV7TA<\/a><\/p>\n

No direct news or new information but positive that the media is finally starting to do its job after 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

Where we stand today, we have returned to the situation during the first half of 2023 \u2013 the rogue regimes are sitting on the fence and if Russia suffers a crushing defeat this could de-escalate and since the intensity has been so high this became the great war of our time.<\/p>\n

The fact that MENA has not lit up like a Christmas tree is sensational and that China would throw Putin under the bus we have guessed for a long time so no news at all really.<\/p>\n

Now give a thought to Russians in Russia, especially the elite, who also have a tablet to Google around on \u2013 they also see Xi in the US cutting in on Biden, they also see the whole MENA backing out of this and they especially see Western support increasing and Ukraine crossing the Dnieper.<\/p>\n

We have returned to a situation where it again becomes likely that some in Russia feel they only have something to negotiate about as long as they have conquered territory to negotiate over and that they will soon lose it \u2013 a couple of notches up on the bubble list.<\/p>\n

There was something that didn\u2019t feel right when H\u2026ah never attacked from the north and now we know why.<\/p>\n

Russia will take the full hit from this, they become the dump for all fallout from the war and with a bit of luck the world can return to business as usual going forward instead of 5-6 years of global conflict.<\/p>\n

We are now at the point where MENA should have lit up and China\u2019s rhetoric been rising with threatening outbursts against Taiwan and more direct support to RU \u2013 but it\u2019s not happening.<\/p>\n

The West has already woken up and if not entered war production at least prepared for defense \u2013 the train has left.<\/p>\n

Of course anything can happen but it\u2019s important to rejoice in the small things and no one is happier than me that the multi-stage rocket did not appear as the guy in the thread always nagged about whoever that was. Now it\u2019s positive-positive also on the global stage (right now) for everyone except H..as who are being chased by dogs in the tunnels \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d The situation at the Dnieper undeniably looks better and better. FAB feels like a big threat. A Patriot system on the right side could have done a lot of good now at the start of the offensive to keep the Russian planes at a distance.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see what the Russians do, it doesn\u2019t seem like they have much to oppose with, and if they retreat or fail to send in any larger reserves it\u2019s only a matter of time before Ukraine takes over the area.<\/p>\n

China and its throwing Russia under the bus is starting to feel a bit like Schr\u00f6dinger\u2019s cat. They have both done it, and not done it.. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s hope China chooses to value the economy. If it gets really bad there is a risk of serious internal problems. The Chinese got pretty angry and protested against some bank that stole their property money earlier, so they don\u2019t seem entirely unwilling to speak up when they\u2019ve had enough.<\/p>\n

Regarding the bubbles, I\u2019ve lost some faith that they will ever burst, but one still hopes.<\/p>\n

I think it will be decided on the battlefield, and that depends a lot on Western deliveries. A lot is happening but I wish it would go much faster.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Schr\u00f6dinger\u2019s cat died under a bus, didn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

On topic, I think China senses that they will crash if they try and that they are backing off.<\/p>\n

Yeah, you can\u2019t predict outcomes on the bubble list, it never came up in the mentioned, so it will be a win on the battlefield instead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

\ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/andreibtvt\/status\/1725110397018022118?s=46&t=h6xqfCsM34WI2GUUrIUJHA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:42 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Modern and flexible vehicle that thrives well in all terrain including on railways.<\/p>\n

Seems like the Russians have finally found their Wunderwaffe! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23 those comments made me laugh a lot but not as much as the Russians who will storm Bakhmut in barely rolling BTR-40s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 There were many kind comments the day before yesterday despite a late post that ended up 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