{"id":8452,"date":"2023-11-18T09:58:52","date_gmt":"2023-11-18T08:58:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-18-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:06:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:06:38","slug":"2023-11-18-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-18-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Big red bus meets a small soft pinhat-like bundle that whimpers.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1725430685769367613?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

And if that is not taken as absolute truth, China at least seems to be de-escalating.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1724890496097521885?s=46&t=gFHbqmNr7aEeJNRNjrJNVA<\/a>
\nChina and Iran might understand where this is heading, maybe they are reading the thread, who knows, and that is why both have slightly started to de-escalate.<\/p>\n

In my niche there is a lot of work, ports are being built everywhere and I have interpreted it as a backlog after COVID but also wonder if the world might get out of this possible recession by Russia taking the full hit, end of my guest appearance in economic matters \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

How is it going at the southern front \u2013 according to Accentmannen RU pulled reserves from the southern front to reinforce Avdiivka \u2013 that\u2019s how it goes!
\nThese are thus not full brigades but they have been rotated in and out of combat at the southern front a couple of times but that means RU has even lower density of units there than we guessed.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/-v0v1H-qJx8?si=Q4In1G1a3XfkLTV2<\/a><\/p>\n

We have guessed that at Dnipro RU has a bit over 20,000 but definitely less than 30,000. To date they have lost 3,500 and \u201cdozens\u201d of hardware \u2013 noticeably at least when it is still just the establishment of a bridgehead over the Dnipro with company-sized forces in a couple of places.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1725518402574332027?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

The big discussion is still that Russia simply cannot lose because they throw so many soldiers into Ukraine that the country drowns and is overrun by Russian soldiers.
\nFirst of all, Ukraine has more soldiers in the army in Ukraine than the Russians have in Ukraine \u2013 can it then even be argued that Russia should win numerically if they have a lower number?<\/p>\n

For this to happen, Russia must partly decimate Ukraine\u2019s half a million in the army to almost zero and we know according to UA that the loss ratio is 1:5 so RU will then lose 2.5 million soldiers in the process.
\nCan they manage that \u2013 I don\u2019t think so.<\/p>\n

Russia has already lost this war but since it continues until they throw in the towel or the last Russian is dead in his grave, it will keep going in the afterburner for a while longer but that should not be confused with Russia winning.<\/p>\n

Sure, Russia adapts to the situation but what do we then call \u2013 ATACMS, cluster Russian, Storm Shadow, CV90, Archer, the hornet swarm SOF, drone weapon, clearing of defense systems, tanks as snipers, having a fleet without having a fleet, acts of liberation in Russia, SOF deep behind, EV weapons and what else\u2026<\/p>\n

Ukraine liberated 50% of conquered territory WITHOUT having all this and now they have more and better tanks than at the start of the war, more and better IFVs than at the start of the war and so on if not infinitely then at least for quite a while.<\/p>\n

The area behind the southern front is in various stages of decay and SOF and partisans make life very hard for the besiegers.
\nYes, it is hard to dismiss strategic reserves until some front falls because they can still come even if no one has seen them.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s best outcome today is to manage to hold conquered areas to maybe 2,500 dead and wounded per day and about fifty knocked-out hard vehicles (maybe a bit high but for effect\u2026).
\nThen the sanctions will increase bit by bit and they are stuck in the freezer.
\nIs this supposed to go on forever, for hundreds of years?
\nUkraine will not give up and Western support will not decrease, it doesn\u2019t matter how much some hope for it \u2013 it won\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n

The war is running in the afterburner for Putin and they have already had a coup attempt and quite big problems with order in the army \u2013 why else would they have needed to introduce blocking units?<\/p>\n

We are on the slippery slope for Putin and Russia.<\/p>\n

About 5,000 UA prisoners of war in Russia, and UA constantly says they have fewer RU prisoners than those held captive in RU \u2013 true or not but that is the best estimate we have of RU prisoners in Ukraine, under 5,000.
\nI have the impression it is significantly more so maybe Ukraine for a change is not sticking to the truth, who knows.<\/p>\n

It is completely useless that UA gets less ammunition, they need to resource the next offensive and you don\u2019t gamble with stuff like this \u2013 West, shape up \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1725453990911975649?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

These bases should be shot away \u2013 West, shape up \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1725628555285893436?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Very many lies from the Russian side, so much that some Russian milbloggers protest. No news for us in the thread but some still believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle but it does not \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/TheStudyofWar\/status\/1725361431736958982?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Perpetua\u2019s somewhat enormous obituary, anecdotal but interesting.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1725730842297708733?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Some legend in the thread without beginning hair loss posted this about BTR40, they have been photographed lined up and prepared at some depot \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andreibtvt\/status\/1725110397018022118?s=46&t=h6xqfCsM34WI2GUUrIUJHA<\/a><\/p>\n

Universities are a classic Russian area of influence and what we see right now I put some local currency bills on that it is being fueled by the Russians.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1725643474626621771?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/radiogenoa\/status\/1725533182001295501?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q<\/a><\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see if the \u201cAzov thrust\u201d is enough to start the process of Russia turning inward. My guess is that it is enough but those rascals have proven unusually resilient so far so anything can happen.<\/p>\n

Teplinsky in hospital, heavy losses at Dnipro, units pulled from the southern front and UA has again the initiative. The unanswered question is probably who is leading the defense of the Dnipro front right now?<\/p>\n

It got late and a bit short but out seeing sand grow again today, quite lively at work.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 Big red bus meets a small soft pinhat-like bundle that whimpers. https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1725430685769367613?s=46&t=GpTNMQEXifhXqrs1ZOUC4Q And if that is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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