{"id":8460,"date":"2023-11-21T10:12:42","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T09:12:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-11-21-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:07:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:07:16","slug":"2023-11-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-11-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-11-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A Twitter rumor at best too early to act on but possible that strategic reserves are now on their way to the southern front or the Dnipro front. If they are heading to the Dnipro front, that retreat beyond artillery range starts to look more reasonable, they are fortifying with these new units first before pulling out existing barbarians at the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

Size, condition, equipment are completely unknown so we have to wait, but if you remember this was one of the most important things to keep an eye on regarding the spring offensive. The other was whether UA ran out of gas. The losses are not out of gas, they are just down to high levels after insane levels due to RU attacks.
\nWhat stands out is the new designation.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1726688049071796365?s=46&t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA<\/a><\/p>\n

I’ve also thought that now it is the UA units trained and equipped by the West that are fighting \u2013 the offensive reserve. They are and probably were highly motivated.
\nThose that come after should be less motivated and a long war is also a factor for Ukraine \u2013 the West is taking way too high a risk with this and should rethink as soon as possible, especially now that there are RU-H… connections so a couple more diplomatic and political locks have reasonably opened?<\/p>\n

If you want to get high blood pressure, look at this picture, maybe 200 Bradleys waiting to be destroyed, the USA has some explaining to do and I think the Russian influence operation has been successful so R is completely rejecting everything. It is cheaper to send these vehicles to Ukraine than to destroy them \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1726487241714004319?s=46&t=Waiql5HCJJcl2XsErBsrjA<\/a><\/p>\n

Before this offensive, the West could have equipped Ukraine with hundreds of MBTs and what, 1500 IFVs without reducing its own capability \u2013 now the West chose not to do that and it is an active choice they made. Ukraine did not get what was on their wish list and is doing the best they can with what they have.<\/p>\n

From Erik14 the day before yesterday quoting Schneider:
\nLeft bank of the Dnipro. AFU continues to expand its bridgeheads. The control zone is currently thought to be about 9 km long and almost 4 km deep, with the gray zone even larger. It is said there are about 300 Ukrainian soldiers in Krynky and surrounding areas.
\nThis sounds reasonable to me, I think there was some confusion in the language jumps and it became 3-8 km deep.<\/p>\n

Then we got two pieces of information, a recently deployed 328th reserve fled their positions and in the 144th there was a platoon that surrendered.
\nRussian losses at the Dnipro are according to UA 3500 dead and wounded and “dozens” of knocked-out armor of mixed types since this round of offensive started.
\nIf we consider that UA crossed the Dnipro mostly with light infantry first at platoon, then company and now maybe battalion size, the Russian losses are quite sensational, aren’t they?
\nUkraine is using the full palette of indirect capabilities as well as indirect fire from tanks over the Dnipro to cause devastation among the Russians.<\/p>\n

They cross with smaller units that first take a poorly defended position and then go on defense.
\nAs soon as RU starts to stack the task force on the highway, it is subjected to devastation until it ceases to exist somewhere in front of the defense, often they haven’t even come within shooting range.
\nIf Ukraine had taken 5 times the Russian losses, this offensive would already be over, so they haven’t done that. The entire Marine Corps is 8000 strong and if it were wiped out Ukraine would have thrown in the towel.
\nThis is exactly what we saw at Klishchivka again and again how a group or platoon knocked out a platoon in defense against a few wounded.<\/p>\n

That is why RU takes 5 times the losses all the time and their only game is to try to keep pace with reserves, to replace those who die.
\nAt Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut RU takes astronomically higher losses than UA, 1:9 say some.
\nWhen the myth that “human wave” (sounds somehow better than meat wall) wins wars shall die is hard to predict but RU is not winning the war.
\n-they are completely incapable of achieving anything with offensive operations.
\n-they are incapable of holding the Dnipro front.
\nThe Russian influence operation that Ukraine is about to lose will completely die out at the larger retreat from the Dnipro.<\/p>\n

Because how can Ukraine be about to lose when the Russians are retreating.
\nThat is probably why it is better to go all-in than risk a breakthrough with subsequent wild flight.
\nIf you extrapolate a bit longer than usual, it could be the breaking point the Russians are terrified of \u2013 that the southern front collapses.
\nThen Russia turns inward, who knows\u2026<\/p>\n

Now the weather effect is also coming with a bang \u2013 UA at least intends to try to equip the soldiers as well as they can.
\nI put my last bets this year on the fact that those thousand-strong units (1000th) at battalion size will not come with enough rain gear or winter clothes and the units that have been in place since spring probably have nothing one can guess?
\nIt is RU that lies and bobs in the water-filled trenches and has a swimming pool in the reinforced trench.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726719196476969050?s=46&t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n

Everyone who has gotten soaking wet knows how combat value drops in a few hours and this will hit the Russians infinitely more than UA. But it is not fun for UA.
\nThe Dnipro front also lacks larger cities so it can probably be quite Spartan in places.<\/p>\n

Slightly OT but Bahrain has come out and strongly condemned H…as.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nadav_markman\/status\/1726167783048901115?s=46&t=RW0lnQApk72iPFpdwRM4kA<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time as it is becoming CRYSTAL CLEAR that H..as has built its military infrastructure under civilian infrastructure managed by RK, Doctors Without Borders, the UN and so on. Everything has been known and these organizations have not sounded the alarm. For example, all Western medical personnel knew not to go down to the basement level in the hospital because of H…as. I understand this is still in its infancy but a bigger scandal than this is almost hard to find. These organizations have completely betrayed the civilians in G…a in favor of a criminal clan that stole all aid funds to build up its military infrastructure. I do not expect the media to claw into this and take hold because it would crash the narrative I have grown up with for as long as I can remember.<\/p>\n

Just as an example, Amnesty went out and condemned UA for setting up camps in empty schools, where is their sulfurous criticism over bunkers under open hospitals?
\nThe world is not fair but these organizations have totally capsized and they are funded by taxes and donations so some demands should be possible to make?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/hillelneuer\/status\/1726340749791232026?s=46&t=6RR12xZmoHMoS3tjyVdg-g<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1726626835117805689?s=46&t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n

Or this one, Guterrez declares that G\u2026a is the bloodiest conflict for civilians in modern times \u2013 without in any way diminishing that thousands of civilians are currently dying there, the UN manages to downplay the war in Ukraine where there are good reasons to suspect hundreds of thousands dead in the Mariupol area and they are still pondering over the text of the protest note.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ratlpolicy\/status\/1726709306727539053?s=46&t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n

The Chinese golf carts have reached the front and it’s going so-so.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1726704863781007389?s=46&t=-4ZE-y0YUKeE35Ym4g6w6g<\/a><\/p>\n

One should not underestimate what is playing out now on all fronts \u2013 we will soon see what reserves have been added to the southern front, if any at all, and the weather will hit RU’s defense very hard.
\nRight now it is wet and around zero degrees which is the worst, so RU’s unit combat effectiveness will plummet and then just like last winter, non-combat injuries will not spike to 30% or something on top of the losses we read about.<\/p>\n

The fact that escalation did not occur in MENA for RU is a big miscalculation for RU and to me it looks like they played one of their best cards and failed.<\/p>\n

People are still completely crazy that the West is not sending more \u2013 some always say there is nothing to send but just looking at the picture of the US destruction program at a depot is enough to understand that there is plenty to send \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

A bit worried that the weather will cause more trouble for Ukraine than for the Russians right at the Dnieper. There is more swampy land closer to the river and that risks making the conditions even worse. Hopefully, they have advanced deep enough anyway.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, I find it a bit interesting that there has been some movement near Horlivka. Not much and maybe not serious, but it will be interesting to see.<\/p>\n

Yes, one gets really tired of the West that doesn\u2019t seem to take this seriously.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, my goodness, now there are supply problems everywhere, of course.
\nHowever, Ukraine probably has shorter supply lines and it is they who cluster and drone away the Russians\u2019 rear, not the other way around?
\nBut yes, the Dnieper will probably become marshy going forward.<\/p>\n

Have you seen that they have already laid two pontoon bridges over the smaller river Konka?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, generally they absolutely have a big advantage when it comes to logistics compared to Russia.
\nMaybe even, with this weather, it is better to transport by boat over the river than by vehicle \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Yes, saw that they had a couple of bridges in place. If they remain, it probably won\u2019t be long before they dare to build bridges or at least operate a ferry over the Dnieper itself.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 A Twitter rumor at best too early to act on but possible that strategic reserves are 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