{"id":8500,"date":"2023-12-03T10:12:07","date_gmt":"2023-12-03T09:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-03-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:29:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:29:26","slug":"2023-12-03-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-03-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The snow leopards \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1730977644429058071?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday I got a feeling of unreality and it wasn\u2019t just after too many cheap star beers and bolognese chips.
\nWatched a film about a company going to the front and thought that in a country near us there are people who we all are in the thread who now in freezing cold December go out to the front to risk their lives with half the equipment. A year ago they were probably having dinner with their family, helping the kids with homework, and having a tough time at work like everyone else.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1730942768250302947?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

It is indisputable to me that the Russians are preparing to leave the Dnipro. What is harder to interpret is why they have planned an interim line; I guess it\u2019s a compromise \u2013 the line at the Dnipro is completely untenable and you cannot give up all terrain to the NS line through Melitopol as it cuts the land bridge to Crimea.<\/p>\n

Voila \u2013 interim line.<\/p>\n

It came up a few days ago that UA would not have total dominance at the Dnipro. The Russians think that UA has total dominance at the Dnipro.
\nIt is the FAB500 \u2013 FAB1500 that is still a problem thanks to the West dilly-dallying with precision aircraft.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1730925657721331820?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

The line will be poorly prepared and thus a weak point on the southern front. As soon as UA gets heavy weapons across, the only way to hold it is to resource it with enormous amounts of troops but that does not exist today.<\/p>\n

Then UA is moving towards Horlivka by taking key terrain bit by bit and RU has so far not managed to prevent it. It is strange because Horlivka is a hub for the units that are supposed to go down to Avdiivka and also up towards Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

According to the Accent man, there are several brigades refusing offensive at the Dnipro now, unclear how many but we have heard about 5-6 at least? They do not refuse defense but they refuse to move forward and it is spreading.<\/p>\n

That blockade in Poland that Hungary and Slovakia have joined \u2013 how can it be allowed?
\nIt is freight forwarders blocking and thus illegal.<\/p>\n

A more obvious Russian influence operation is hard to find and a couple of the trucking companies have already been exposed with Russian connections.<\/p>\n

Then the Russian global escalation has completely failed. Half of MENA is calling Israel and asking them to eliminate Hamas
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1730950963773460534?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

But points for trying, Hamas\u2019s absolute death orgy (or whatever is a fitting word) is worse than anyone could have dreamed of.<\/p>\n

How demonstrators in the West can support these sexual sadistic murderers is a mystery to me.
\nThey should be forced to watch that 47-minute film from October 7 as punishment.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/amisraelchai_\/status\/1730763803753586802?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Our big organizations like the UN, Red Cross, Amnesty, Doctors Without Borders etc. are really struggling with their identity now, UN Women withdrew their condemnation of October 7.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/yudapearl\/status\/1731002971134345362?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Then it was not entirely unexpected that NK would start moving.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/endgameww3\/status\/1731188733691453508?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n

And as someone in the thread wrote, we can probably expect attacks on Christmas markets and Christmas decorations this year \u2013 it has already started, what an oracle he was whoever it was.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1731091095461724258?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n

I lean towards China not being involved in a global world war but we haven\u2019t seen their poker hand yet, we\u2019ll see.
\nIf it is true what LW posted rumors about that RU is trying to get China involved through subversive activities, then the global escalation is almost extinguished, right?<\/p>\n

Right now things are going as badly globally as in Ukraine for Russia and it is starting to move inside Russia \u2013 all very good.<\/p>\n

Khodorovsky openly challenges Putin
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/khodorkovsky_en\/status\/1731048402354418174?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n

I am thinking that the West should release the tanks which seem to be some kind of pet issue and instead send IFVs in very large numbers, thousands.
\nThat would win the war for UA, tanks are good and they are now used as 4km snipers but you can get at RU tanks with drones and many IFVs have anti-tank missiles.
\nUA needs so many that they no longer need to save on the materiel as they do now.
\nNow they have been trained on all types and have their own instructors.<\/p>\n

Now the figure 430,000 RU in Ukraine came up again, I assume that rebels, Rosgvardia, FSB, navy, air force and police as well as administration are not counted and that it then becomes double but these 430,000 are what UA needs to cut through to win.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1731062314516807838?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Jay in Kiev came in with the figure 16,000 RU prisoners in the war. Previously Zelensky has said that they have fewer than the number of UA prisoners in Russia and that it is apparently 3,500 left plus a few thousand civilians?
\nBut this is now the third time between 15,000 \u2013 20,000 RU prisoners of war have been mentioned.
\nWe thought it was a few thousand captured at Izyum and at Kherson not everyone fled and that quite a few are surrendering so I wonder if Zelensky is deliberately fudging the truth.
\nWill make a good rebel army in the future \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/golub\/status\/1731050085083971640?s=46&t=GS619hCB6cw0WXGPKN0Lvw<\/a><\/p>\n

If you remember when we guessed it was the 10th Spetznaz staff position that went down in Oleshky sands, SOF was there but it was the only unit nearby.
\nSo it apparently was and the general died the same day, somewhat coincidentally.
\nThen we know that the 10th Spetznaz is in bad shape too \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1730949273846493622?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Moving fast at the Dnipro now, very exciting and that interim line will be interesting to see what it is worth, positive \u2013 positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Anyone know anything about this, Stoltenberg says there is some crisis in UA?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1731245202998755455?s=46&t=JrrF99cMzicyPTiH7iWK0g<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the report!<\/p>\n

Interesting that it seems more and more videos of whining Russian soldiers are coming out. Of course, we have seen such for over a year but it feels like a rising trend. Let\u2019s hope it eventually spreads properly. One can imagine they will be really worn out by February after enduring another winter.<\/p>\n

The transport blockades are a disaster. Sure, maybe you can have some understanding if they get upset that Ukrainian haulers have taken over part of the market but I find it hard to believe it is a real problem. The blockade must cost them a lot themselves. Stopping aid shipments to Ukraine is extremely low. It can only be a Russian influence operation behind it.<\/p>\n

Maybe you are onto something, IFV would be the most useful. Especially now if the weather is bad. Last autumn, when there were successes, it felt like it was mostly light armor that dominated. They really cleared the way just with M113 in some attacks. Of course, the mines cause problems now, so it\u2019s not as easy as it was then.<\/p>\n

The Russians are unfortunately the ones who seem to have the most success now when it comes to taking ground, but it comes at a cost. We can hope that the successes at the Dnieper continue. Either so that they can really start shipping over more materiel and take substantial ground, or that the Russians are forced to divert so many soldiers that they struggle on the other fronts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:14 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Comes from TASS who claim he said it in a TV interview on ARD yesterday, but I can\u2019t find the interview itself. As far as I understand, Jens is at a climate conference in Dubai right now..
\nNot impossible that it\u2019s just made up\u2026<\/p>\n

https:\/\/tass.com\/world\/1715253<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This feels very Russian, blowing up your own car \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/cctvidiots\/status\/1731372925159117300?s=46&t=tTjArRrugI6ddqdAWUKYVw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Fun to read Erik14.
\nWe have probably had a shared view for quite a while in this war even if you like to sabotage my setups when given the chance \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Regarding forward \u2013 there is no reason for UA to stop, only if they run out of ammunition.<\/p>\n

Yes, it will be lively at the Dnieper but don\u2019t forget that then the focus will have shifted to the SW corner so they will strike at at least one more place. If the West could just release its lock on the northern front it would be appreciated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:26 \u2013 Johan No.1 The snow leopards \u270a https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1730977644429058071?s=46&t=X35Qdkqx3ScytuFRx2jWGQ Yesterday I got a feeling of unreality and it wasn\u2019t just […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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