{"id":8504,"date":"2023-12-05T09:44:48","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T08:44:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-05-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:30:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:30:24","slug":"2023-12-05-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-05-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-05"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Do you remember the guy in the thread who said the spring offensive would start in mid-April when he put together all the factors, the ground conditions, and the need for the longest possible time to achieve results, and then he was embarrassed.<\/p>\n

Well \u2013 the USA also wanted the offensive to start in mid-April, so now he feels like an American military analyst and is feeling great \ud83d\ude32 <\/p>\n

Note that UA waited until the equipment arrived, so yet another reason why the Western laggards are failing on the battlefield \u2013 late start.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1731757229487841589?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

We know that UA now has a cloud of drones, an Uber for artillery orders, their own satellite, artillery radar, and guided ammunition as well as capable platforms to deliver the ammunition.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of the war, they got targets from US signals intelligence and it was rumored that a CIA team was in Lviv updating the list, but the latter is of course unconfirmed.
\nAt some point, the USA announced that they would no longer share the information with UA and I have the feeling that drones, SOF, and partisans are doing a good job in Ukraine nowadays collecting target data.<\/p>\n

We do not know UA artillery losses but if RU had filmed large amounts of destroyed artillery we would have seen it on film, right?<\/p>\n

The whole chain is well-oiled and very professionally managed, the drones report targets that are engaged within a minute nowadays apparently according to RU. As soon as the barbarians hear a drone, they cluster within a minute they believe, and they don’t like it.<\/p>\n

Ukraine does not have this on all fronts but they have it in prioritized areas, Avdiivka, Dnepr, Bakhmut, and Robotyne for example.<\/p>\n

For anyone who has had any job whatsoever, you understand what a tiny step they are at in the development stages. A bit like when you had to pitch a tent in 15 minutes at the end of military service \u2013 that level.<\/p>\n

Everyone knows what they are doing, the artillery is constantly moving and the targets are well reconnoitered with many hits right in the middle \u2013 right time and right place simply.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is causing enormous damage every day with this anthill of death. It is a large organization where all parts must function and they do, everyone does their best every day like a Swedish county council employee roughly.<\/p>\n

We know that Russian artillery went down by 70% for quite some time and the numbers of destroyed artillery were enormous.
\nWe have guessed that artillery crews are knocked out and replaced by newly mobilized who still fight with personal weapons, they simply do not regroup fast enough and are knocked out.<\/p>\n

Apparently RU also has some Uber for artillery but no one can operate it so it doesn’t work.<\/p>\n

Then the soldiers complain that the information from reconnaissance drones never reaches the commander indirectly before it’s too late.
\nThey simply cannot work professionally and high-tech \u2013 it is impossible for them.<\/p>\n

What slightly tips the balance in RU’s favor are autonomous suicide drones which are “fire and forget” so even a Russian can handle that.
\nHowever, Ukraine has just launched its first “drone hunter drones,” their EV weapons are very effective and their own new drones are now resistant to RU EV.<\/p>\n

Even within EV, the Russians are seriously on the decline right now despite an enormous initial advantage. It was easy, they set up the system and it blocked all drones within a certain area \u2013 SOF, partisans, and artillery had to solve that knot.<\/p>\n

At Dnepr, RU is completely outclassed by these units which are like a well-oiled unit at the Swedish Transport Administration roughly in their deliveries \u2013 always on time and always within budget.<\/p>\n

We have seen the same journey with the shooters who have become veritable gods at clearing defense systems while the Russians have admitted difficulty even getting within shooting range of Ukrainian defense before they die in grand explosions and fire clouds. They ARE outclassed and it shows in the daily losses and loss ratio of 1:5.<\/p>\n

What we now need is for Ukraine to be able to advance and I can’t think of anything better than blast-protected vehicles in huge numbers so they can afford to waste.
\nI am quite sure UA will excel in mechanized combat going forward as well because they have been training since autumn 2022 but they hold back because they are careful with the vehicles.<\/p>\n

And to be able to retake lost areas you need to advance point-blank, you need to smash into the defense with an armored fist and take losses but break through.<\/p>\n

FAB600 and FAB1500 need to be dealt with somehow and since advanced aircraft and more missiles are not being delivered, it will probably be partisans and SOF who have to sort this out deep behind enemy lines.
\nWhen UA got 20 ATACMS, what happened, +20 anti-tank helicopters?
\nImagine if they had gotten 1000, RU air force and army aviation would have been non-existent.<\/p>\n

Yesterday the Brits came up with a figure of 70,000 dead barbarians as an absolute truth.
\nRemember USA, their estimate was 70,000 dead UA soldiers as well, right?
\nAnyone in this thread who believes UA and RU have suffered equal losses in this war?<\/p>\n

Either the USA or the Brits are wrong, it’s that simple, look at Oryx for confirmed material losses and it gives an indication that it is not 1:1 between UA and RU, right?
\nSo who is lying or alternatively has done terrible research and posts it anyway?<\/p>\n

I can’t quite let go of Stoltenberg’s distorted statement.
\nI see that Zelensky has started to get worried about not getting results.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1731595730043691085?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

But I actually think the above is a Russian influence operation, don’t know why Defmon latched onto it, probably part of Meiden 3?
\nRead this and you will understand, unfortunately lost the source.
\n“Russia and Ukraine are conducting secret peace negotiations along the Gerasimov-Zaluzhny line, despite the objections of Zelensky and the White House, claims American journalist Seymour Hersh, citing US officials”<\/p>\n

But it IS a critical situation as UK is now touring the USA to convince them to provide support. Russian subversive activities have worked very well, that is indisputable. USA is passive and transports to UA are effectively blocked at the border \u2013 almost 100% there.
\nIt’s time to bring out communist-shaming in the USA, I am starting to feel, let those who vote no feel the pain.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1731647571276300585?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Bulgaria has withdrawn from the large delivery of APCs, nicely done again Russia \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1731723553244880914?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Moldova is preparing for war, that’s how secure they feel from EU support \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1731437640908496942?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

USA is currently conducting a major troop movement, for what purpose?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/chuckcallesto\/status\/1731527522620195173?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

and at UNHRC in Geneva pamphlets with j…ehat are being handed out.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/unwatch\/status\/1731710937214636178?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Enough of that gloomy stuff, here\u2019s how things are going in Ukraine \ud83d\ude00
\nThe strategic reserve at the Dnipro was the 104th AAD. To date, one brigade has been wiped out and one fled, there is a third brigade whose whereabouts I don\u2019t know but the reserve is almost exhausted.
\nYep, it\u2019s the 104th AAD that tried to seize the bridgehead at Krynky and failed.<\/p>\n

The 37th Marines brigade has now been shipped across the Dnipro, the entire brigade, and is fighting, 2000 strong and an absolute elite unit with night combat capability.<\/p>\n

Russian reconnaissance vehicles at the Dnipro are so decimated that UA has started flying Bayraktar drones again \u2013 that, if anything, signals that UA has complete dominance in the area?<\/p>\n

5000 kamikaze drones ready to hunt Russians out of their holes.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1731604709268463759?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

And the other day UA launched a major counterattack at Stepove, mechanized and supported by at least AHKP \u2013 piles of dead barbarians.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylabb\/status\/1731722263232217349?s=46&t=XWegyhpqFvbPg9cVWFto_Q<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine totally dominates at the Dnipro and it turned out exactly as the guy who wrote the big campaign plan guessed, they established bridgeheads and then the offensive reserve has to move up and travel by road to reach the combat area and they are half decimated by drones and artillery before they arrive. He learned that from Davydiv Brid.
\nHe probably guessed an area further north but the current area is shielded and very good for establishing a strong bridgehead for further offensive operations.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s not just a threat opened on the flank of the southern front, it\u2019s a new attack vector and the marine corps is leading the fight, which are elite units.<\/p>\n

Defeatism is also starting to spread among the units at the Dnipro, refusing to go on the offensive is becoming old and next will probably be refusing war.<\/p>\n

That Ukraine has managed to establish several bridgeheads over the Dnipro and create air superiority with drones (but unfortunately not deny RU air) shows how it will go on other fronts when UA pools capabilities there.
\nIn Ukraine, Darwinism applies and their capabilities are constantly strengthened, in RU it\u2019s reverse Darwinism and their total defense is getting worse and worse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I wonder if after the war we will find out how the AFU calculated the Russian losses. Both what is included and how they collected the data. Regardless, there must be quite a bit of uncertainty on both sides. Things that are never reported or filmed but also things that are counted twice or where some commander fudges the numbers to make it sound better.<\/p>\n

You might think the Brits and Americans could specify how they arrived at their figures but I find it hard to believe they know better than the AFU.<\/p>\n

Regardless, the losses for the Russians are clearly significant. Otherwise, they wouldn\u2019t be fighting so hard to recruit new soldiers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yeah, some details we\u2019ll probably have to wait for until after the big victory \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Do you remember the guy in the thread who said the spring offensive would start in 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