{"id":8510,"date":"2023-12-08T09:17:12","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T08:17:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-08-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:31:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:31:35","slug":"2023-12-08-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-08-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

TU95 bombers took off for a missile mission against Ukraine that shot down all the missiles.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1733020730537779603?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

Now we are eagerly awaiting Ukraine’s proportional response, surely the missile attack is retaliation for the destroyed train tunnel but an eye for an eye is quite drawn out and bloody \u2013 ask the Vikings who probably had to legislate it away.<\/p>\n

I’m starting to feel that I have to let go of the fact that it’s still summer, the snow made it too difficult for me to convince anyone.
\nThere were some things that went wrong \u2013 the late start, the minefields but the biggest problem was the lack of Western equipment.
\nI have a feeling that the West is not clear enough with Ukraine and they have to interpret the signs quite a bit. They have simply been worried about running out of Western equipment because they don’t know if they will get more support \u2013 then it becomes what it becomes.<\/p>\n

Spring and early summer saw quite high losses in heavy vehicles and when they started summing it up they probably realized it was unsustainable and then they switched to infantry.
\nAutumn 2022 and summer 2023 the West managed to mess up but Ukraine is not depressed because of that, they keep going.
\nThe daily losses remain sky-high and the last few months have hurt Russia the most in the entire war.<\/p>\n

The strategic reserves are nowhere to be seen, mobilization is nowhere to be seen and the BTR-50 is at the front.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1733007859103735905?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

The BTR-50 is, if anyone wonders, from the 1950s and buddies with those trucks the armored infantry went to war with at Avdiivka or the T54-55.
\nEven the biggest pessimist will have a hard time spinning this as a strength for Russia.
\nThey are absolutely in serious decline when the BTR-50 has appeared. I think we posted a picture of them when they stood freshly painted at a depot earlier?<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, I think Russia has an unpleasant surprise because they have probably received missiles from Iran ahead of their winter blitz so you can add a few hundred to the 800 they were supposed to have.
\nHowever, Ukraine has directly signaled that they will strike back hard and a lot so I think we might see a Black Sea Fleet winter blitz but maybe we are not there yet, the Russians will probably test the limits first before they feel attacked and start complaining loudly.
\nUkraine has shown it can take out pretty much everything and they should have prepared capacity to respond to 3-4 Russian missile barrages at least so they can make it look like it never ends and the Russians get tired?<\/p>\n

A little dive into influence operations, some risk that runaway oil prices are a few weeks away from becoming this winter’s gas weapon.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/terriblefinance\/status\/1732759266874789983?s=46&t=ovxicJylz7nbWZcyTfYHBg<\/a><\/p>\n

It is unclear to me what the Houthi attack on the three commercial ships was meant to achieve but sinking a larger ship in the Strait of Hormuz is definitely a real risk and then oil will reasonably become very expensive.<\/p>\n

The GOP should be really ashamed because when you get praised by Russia you have gone very wrong and also have been jumping on the whole history you are supposed to manage.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/juliadavisnews\/status\/1732797076856000721?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

I added Tulsi Gabbard to my list of pro-Russians a month ago and now she is worried that Japan will rearm, is she also doing China’s bidding?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tulsigabbard\/status\/1732690475482755422?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russian influence operation to destabilize South America is gaining momentum. The USA has also intervened with calming measures in the area in the form of overflights.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/endgameww3\/status\/1732923663266038059?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

MENA seems to have fizzled out but it can certainly get lively in South America for a while now and then we must not forget Africa where Russia is present in half of the countries on the continent and destabilizing everything they can.<\/p>\n

Then we actually have some positive news for everyone to take in, as soon as RU left their peacekeeping mission in Armenia Azerbaijan and Armenia have approached each other and it looks brighter. It was Russia who kept the conflict alive by doing what they do best, finding the core issues and attacking them.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noclador\/status\/1732891043803075044?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

Then it actually seems like Europe is seriously considering contributing to the common good in case the USA fails to do so going forward, that is very good.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/horveioyvind\/status\/1732686544165564517?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

I liked this one, every brigade shall get a drone company fully equipped. Today there are probably independent drone units and then combat units have some drone capability but now they want to spread it out as a brigade resource.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1732855249335902693?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

Everything has its time and the drone weapon will work in this war but it is clear that it is a complement to other capabilities.<\/p>\n

It is not a little sad that Taiwan accounts for 20% of the parts for the Russians’ drones \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1732982590313767326?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

In my constant search for uses for the ZSU-23-2 I have to say that the MTLB with an S60 is not bad either.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1732990438259200106?s=46&t=hHDzoi9Tuu9WybxgSCA9-g<\/a><\/p>\n

It is quiet at the fronts, Accentmannen had the usual review of the Russian fiasco at Avdiivka which was fun but from the Dnieper I don’t hear much. The 104th AAD is almost used up and then there is really nothing left with a bang and according to earlier Ukraine has crossed over with a whole brigade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks for the review!<\/p>\n

Yes, we have to give up, the spring offensive must be said to be over now, summer is not that long no matter how much you wish it\u2026 \ud83d\ude42 <\/p>\n

Regarding oil prices, we have to thank the USA for greatly increasing their production. I really hope they continue.
\nIf they do, it is not entirely impossible that the other major oil producers choose to open the taps to dump prices and bankrupt the American companies. They have done it before.
\nIn 2020, the price of Ural oil was down to 12-14 for a few months. <\/p>\n

If we end up there again for a longer period it would be good night for Russia.
\nI don’t think it will happen, but if the USA can keep oil prices at this level it is still good, it doesn’t give much profit for Russia.<\/p>\n

Jake talks about it among other things: https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JjrcRznggKg<\/a><\/p>\n

Slava Ukraini!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:36 \u2013 Johan No.1 TU95 bombers took off for a missile mission against Ukraine that shot down all the missiles. 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