{"id":8512,"date":"2023-12-10T08:53:10","date_gmt":"2023-12-10T07:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:32:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:32:04","slug":"2023-12-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Floating on clouds here after the medal race \ud83d\ude0e<\/p>\n

We wrote earlier in the thread that the spring offensive was fully resourced but that the next offensive (if needed) must be resourced \u2013 that\u2019s where we are now.<\/p>\n

I think it is generally accepted that UA has been economical with heavy vehicles during its offensive. In the beginning, they took heavy losses on all fronts where they advanced and then adjusted.
\nIf they had promises of 15,000 \u2013 20,000 more armored vehicles, they could have pushed forward, but now there are probably ambiguous signals forcing them to act for a worst-case scenario \u2013 that the West withdraws.<\/p>\n

But amid all the gloom and doom prophecies that the West has run out of equipment to send, which the thread has disproved, quite a lot is happening that speaks in favor of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Today they have their digital battlefield, which was the Swedish defense\u2019s vision when I did my military service, and a very short lead time between detection and effect on the target with indirect fire. They have enough for several front sections.<\/p>\n

The shooting fights very competently and recently we have seen mechanized combat with attack helicopters. It is my belief that Ukraine has also learned mechanized combat and that we will see it going forward as the indications are such.
\nSince summer 2022, Ukraine has trained, trained, and trained, and they must have learned something in the end, right?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1733591357204107368?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ<\/a><\/p>\n

What Ukraine needs is more of all equipment as well as a functioning air force.<\/p>\n

The deal with Bulgaria is ongoing and apparently includes 3,000 heavy eastern-made vehicles, in mixed condition.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1733190579368894480?s=46&t=Ib1sOC_vnrti65_fkVvLhw<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I don\u2019t know if you\u2019ve followed this but Germany, together with Hungary and Ukraine, will start large-scale production of Lynx and Fuchs vehicles for Ukraine, which are the newest combat vehicles available on the market; the first 10 are to be delivered before Christmas.
\nScholz is very clear even though Russian influence through AfD is surprisingly effective, unfortunately.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/deaidua\/status\/1733441866152960184?s=46&t=Ib1sOC_vnrti65_fkVvLhw<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine is still trying to buy F18s from Australia, there are new discussions about Gripen, and 60 F16s are de facto on their way \u2013 that\u2019s less than UA wanted but consider here that the Russian air force is no longer strong so with a bit of luck it might be enough to deny RU access to the fronts with their damn F500 and F1500.<\/p>\n

Putin has ignored what is said throughout the war and looked at what is done, and throughout the war he has been strengthened in his belief that the West is slow-walking this and that he will be able to get a compromise peace favorable to him. Favorable in the sense that he and his siloviki buddies survive and can continue to plunder Russia. They know they have gotten themselves into a real mess entirely on their own but still feel that the West might give them a consolation prize enough to spin it into a win so they survive (i.e., personally live longer).<\/p>\n

What we don\u2019t know is who calls Putin in between to calm him down; during 2022 many had weekly calls with Putin and exactly what was said we do not know.<\/p>\n

His entire subversive operation has now been rolled out and is running at full speed; in the USA lynch mobs roam universities and many cities looking for bastards to hang. I\u2019d bet a monthly salary that they will eventually become anti-everything and anti-establishment.<\/p>\n

He plays card after card \u2013 now it\u2019s Venezuela and then the Houthi rebels have announced they will try to close the Red Sea to all maritime traffic (which will probably happen since they will naturally shoot at the wrong ships).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1733560781231251484?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin has gone to MENA to try to raise the oil price.<\/p>\n

If we factor in that NK has not moved yet and that China never intended to go all in, I think Putin has played his cards. Africa will light up but that has been known for a long time.<\/p>\n

His refugee route to Mexico to get migrants into the USA is also known for a long time; if anyone still doubts that he was behind the migrant crisis in 2015 and now creates conflicts between groups throughout the West, think again.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/brettodesa\/status\/1733222560580440303?s=46&t=fpW51n97DJRwYIsObYL1dw<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin \u201cweaponizes\u201d absolutely everything: conflicts in countries, refugee flows, hatred, discontent, and natural resources \u2013 if that\u2019s not reason enough to label them \u201cstate sponsor and terrorism,\u201d the West might as well give up its ambition to make the world a better place because Putin makes the world a worse place faster than the West can put out the fires.<\/p>\n

My interpretation is that it failed miserably in MENA, which is very fortunate.<\/p>\n

There are rumors of some false-flag to bait China into going all-in but my money is on that as it looks today China will stay on the mat. Ok, we haven\u2019t seen their cards yet but the signals are that they have enough internal problems not to dare risk everything and possibly fail.<\/p>\n

We have seen the poor quality of NK ammunition and T64s are on their way to the fronts.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/afvrec_\/status\/1733563251869241419?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg<\/a>
\nIf they had T90 and Terminator, those would be on the trains, not T64 and BTR-50 as we saw the other day, right?<\/p>\n

The biggest problem they have is the personnel\u2019s competence and ability, which is very low because they have constantly reset their units.<\/p>\n

104th AAD fighting near Kherson are newly mobilized with slightly better training and are completely outclassed by the marine corps.
\nIn autumn 2022, Ukraine had a very hard time near Kherson when fighting against VDV.<\/p>\n

If you remember my countdown of RU\u2019s offensive reserve, which was probably +50,000 at the start of the spring offensive, my point was exactly this \u2013 these units are now spent and when they are again put into combat, they are only mobilized units fighting with personal weapons.<\/p>\n

The Russian offensive reserve consisting of their last usable units is today basically considered spent \u2013 the countdown reached zero \ud83d\udca5 (there are probably some remnants of Spetznaz and some VDV regiments left maybe\u2026).<\/p>\n

Near Kherson, VDV and marine infantry take a serious beating when a VDV division and two marine infantry brigades are to attack 300 UA marines who have crossed the Dnipro \u2013 if this had been 2022, they would have been overrun quite quickly.
\nNow the 117th RU marine infantry has also been heavily decimated, Erik14 posted that yesterday.<\/p>\n

If you remember Davyidiv Brid, UA overran a battalion that VDV pushed back except for a forest area west of the town that UA held continuously.<\/p>\n

We have thus come to the point where the Russian imperial army\u2019s capability is severely reduced while the Ukrainian army now has very high capability and above all the ability to cooperate between branches to get fire on target within minutes after detection.<\/p>\n

Add to that (the whole West’s) SOF and the partisan movement, which has a name I forgot, that seems very effective at depth, as well as the campaign to strike targets inside Russia in cooperation with all the “liberation fronts” that exist locally in Russia.
\nHere is a transformer factory burning like a Walpurgis Night fire.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/osint_69\/status\/1732797207701528614?s=46&t=B-agNy0WQaPrfQsYdtztqw<\/a><\/p>\n

This war is already lost for Russia but the West continues to give Putin hope because they do not understand how he interprets the signs, so it keeps going.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is preparing for a new offensive, materiel is on the way and new brigades are being set up, Erik14 mentioned it, I think I have seen information about 5-6 new brigades being formed. The idea that units only get a few weeks of training is a myth. The offensive reserve for the winter offensive 2023 had started training in summer 2022 and was deployed in combat in spring 2023.<\/p>\n

I saw that the 25th Airborne also got Marders so now there are enough for two brigades apparently, and units not at the active front have been trained continuously.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1733491559029408066?s=46&t=Ib1sOC_vnrti65_fkVvLhw<\/a><\/p>\n

In night fighting, UA absolutely dominates totally and the winter will be hard on the Russians in the trenches \u2013 below is a video of a Russian soldier lying on the ground slowly eating snow \u2013 possibly the first video of winter war 2.0.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/trenttelenko\/status\/1733645982942826763?s=46&t=BM8w9PQODMdgNiziQF6kFQ<\/a><\/p>\n

UA will not let go of the ball at all but they are now building up for the next multi-front offensive which will either come this winter if the opportunity arises or become another spring offensive, depending a bit on RU’s willingness to run and die in the fields if one may guess.
\nWhen will Russia realize that the war is lost, that Ukraine and Georgia are candidate countries for the EU probably stings quite hard.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1733506395637518379?s=46&t=sh9VAJ95j9SPJkhpo3MTAg<\/a><\/p>\n

If they don\u2019t, Ukraine will retake the remaining 50% one meter at a time; the idea of a negotiated peace or that Ukraine will get tired and give up exists only as a dream in Russian psyops.<\/p>\n

It is very unfortunate that the West has lagged with deliveries to two low points and there is some reason to suspect that Ukraine has been used as a tool to completely wear out RU with a long war but I choose not to engage with that because it only creates divisions. If they took out +20 ahkp with about twenty ATACMS, it is hard to understand why the USA didn\u2019t send thousands directly, right?<\/p>\n

On the other side of this, Ukraine is in the EU and an economic powerhouse and Russia is probably broken up into about a dozen new countries and Belarus has good contacts with the West and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

That is how reality looks, the world is not fair but Ukraine is heading for a smashing victory here whether Putin accepts it or not \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Forgot to discuss this and it is at best a Twitter rumor.<\/p>\n

Do you remember a few years ago in the Mediterranean how a Russian aircraft managed to shut down all systems of a fighter.<\/p>\n

According to this, all systems of an aircraft carrier were shut down by Russian special aircraft when Putin was going to Dubai.<\/p>\n

Something we brought up earlier was if RU shut down an entire CRG and then Iran with its anti-ship missiles could take it out in one go.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, there is a CRG in the Persian Gulf now.<\/p>\n

As said, Twitter rumor at best.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/silverfox6158\/status\/1732874328662855880?s=46&t=B-agNy0WQaPrfQsYdtztqw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the positive situation report! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Why not then?<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t deploy everything at once, right, but start filling depots in Poland and as soon as a crew loses a vehicle they get a new one.<\/p>\n

Then they don\u2019t have to hold back the hard vehicles as they do now but can sacrifice vehicles for terrain in mechanized attacks and then gather the crews without vehicles and re-equip them during rotation.<\/p>\n

To take terrain you need to advance and we have reached the point where terrain needs to be taken. If Ukraine has a promise of 15,000 \u2013 20,000 hard vehicles in all classes, ptgb, apc, ifv, jeeps etc., and the depots in Poland are full, then they know they can push on until the war is won.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Danke<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Very interesting.<\/p>\n

Last paragraph \u2013 yep, in that film with 3rd Azov at Bakhmut the battalion staff immediately saw what the Russians were up to. As soon as they took a defense system they were directed to a defense in another direction and repelled the task force\u2019s counterattack.<\/p>\n

When they advanced in the defenses they were directed by the staff all the time who saw the whole process with drones.<\/p>\n

It must be ENORMOUSLY difficult to direct correctly so a lot of training must be behind it, in a defense system you completely lose direction and the drone has a different angle than the advancing soldier \u2013 easy to misunderstand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Give it a few weeks and we will see where it is heading \u2013 or above all, what the situation is after the USA has passed the support package.<\/p>\n

It seems some units now have to start rationing indirect fire which means they themselves have to take out the targets and then they take losses. Presumably the stocks for the spring offensive have started to run low and they have not received sufficient promises of more so they have to ration.<\/p>\n

Incredibly poor on the part of the West if they POSSIBLY give Russia that pause they so desperately need\u2026. we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:07 \u2013 Johan No.1 Floating on clouds here after the medal race \ud83d\ude0e We wrote earlier in the thread that 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