{"id":8514,"date":"2023-12-01T10:47:18","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T09:47:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-01-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:32:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:32:44","slug":"2023-12-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The snow leopards \u270a
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1730216527247368526?s=46&t=_pr5py8jRzw75VHvhB_O3g<\/a><\/p>\n

Thanks for all the kind support yesterday that I should work less and change jobs so I can hang out in the thread more \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

One hopes every day that the RU army will come to its senses and refuse war. 1:5 seems to be an almost accepted ratio and even the Russians consider it to have been widely exceeded in Avdiivka.
\nVideos of drone-chased Russians are starting to get tiring but it is terrible to see every time \u2013 impossible to defend against and quite a lot like the utopian sci-fi movies about a robotized world even if it is still a bit analog steering for now.<\/p>\n

If it is true as someone wrote in the thread the other day that they have run out of Storm Z and are starting to set up forcibly recruited migrant battalions then they are as much victims as the Ukrainians.
\nWhat one really wants to see now is the army refusing war but so far they have had an absolutely unique ability to die under the most horrible conditions.<\/p>\n

As PerraG55 often points out, it is a way for Putin to empty the prisons and get rid of minorities but minorities are a province or a partial republic which, if they have been specifically targeted, have been hit very hard by the war \u2013 that is how sparks ignite.<\/p>\n

The country Russia is really deeply marinated in this but for those of us who remember 1989 it was a day before and a day after, right?
\nThe deep marinade\u2019s cover was lifted in one day.
\nThere are enough people in every country who want to do harm for it to keep going if it turns into that but the great mass is just like all of us and if awakened it will be lively.<\/p>\n

This enormous influence operation rolling out over the West right now where they first woke up the far left through H\u2026as and then the far right through the far left\u2019s rampages is unnecessary and affects many negatively. In various countries, governments have started thinking about limiting the right to demonstrate and\/or freedom of speech (calling it hate) \u2013 proposals for rules or laws against basically saying anything that could be perceived as offensive by someone. They have used protective custody extensively \u2013 all very poorly thought out.<\/p>\n

Another old dusty trick is to jump up and down on a population\u2019s heartfelt issues \u2013 Remembrance Day in the UK where they tore poppies off pensioners and tore down the Union Jack and most recently the erection of the Christmas tree in NY
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rawsalerts\/status\/1730049602068381982?s=46&t=QkVp_z2XOwwvdRhz1T6YaA<\/a>
\nNo prize if you guess there will be actions against Christmas in Western countries because it is probably the heartfelt issue of heartfelt issues for many of us in the West. <\/p>\n

What one must never forget is that one man\u2019s terrorist is another man\u2019s freedom fighter and there are many who are angry in the West right now about a bit of everything so it should not be a problem to drum up large lynch mobs that tear down Christmas decorations in city centers in a few weeks or rampage around Christmas markets \u2013 we will see and I hope I am wrong because that could become a serious catalyst \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

This will finally become a self-playing piano where the GRU officer with the medal box and garbage bags full of champagne bottles can now start surfing Google and just watch his demonic creation take off.
\nThe West will survive this too but it is so endlessly damn unnecessary.<\/p>\n

My Twitter feed has completely collapsed, I don\u2019t even find it fun anymore and just get upset about all the ped@philes in the US government, it\u2019s incredible how they behave (some irony). It actually affects the general well-being to be flooded by all this which is very well done and exactly why I built a light blue cushion room of feel-good movies and then let in what was seen as important \u2013 the war in UA. Elon has simply invaded my safe space \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Enough of that and no more whining, the war goes its own way and the Russians are dying like flies in large numbers. We don\u2019t hear much from the fronts because the opsec cover is watertight but losses in everything have been ATH since late summer and the Russian barbarians are taking absolutely obscene losses.<\/p>\n

In November almost 30,000 barbarians died so almost 100,000 total gone from the battlefield. Since they have reverse Darwinism in the Russian army it is the tip that goes down. Just over 25% of the maneuver units gone in one month (I\u2019m rounding up \ud83d\ude00).
\nNow we have winter injuries on top of that which will push sick leave and parental leave to new heights, they were 30% of all simulators in northern Luhansk last winter we were told so 30% on top of normal sick rates and if it is like now with rain during the day and subzero at night it will increase avalanche-like.<\/p>\n

In October RU lost 521 tanks, that is just over 20% of the number of tanks they have in this war. In November it was 350 which is also a historically high figure.
\nRU lost 1400 artillery pieces in October and November \u2013 an incomprehensible number.<\/p>\n

If the rumor that LW posted is true that RU is trying to pull China into this it signals that China is not an active party in this and is then very significant. The source was probably Taiwan but things like this tend to show if true a month or two after it has leaked out is what we have discovered so far during this war. <\/p>\n

Have you noticed very many violent liberation acts against the rail network \ud83d\udca5
\nRussia\u2019s bloodstream for military traffic is the rail network and they need enormous amounts of maintenance for their 800,000 \u2013 900,000 men in conquered areas or whatever it may be including all branches of the military and all personnel included.
\nIt is an active campaign run by GUR or SBU and the liberation fronts.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1730173435710488666?s=46&t=XV_nUiX1zNPWxp3aLnZTvA<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1730160875271545214?s=46&t=_pr5py8jRzw75VHvhB_O3g<\/a><\/p>\n

If you remember the big campaign plan, Ukraine was to after the southern front and Crimea retake northern Luhansk and get at NS supply lines outside UA land border.
\nThey have actually started early with that and right now they are making the darkest Donbass and Crimea as desert-dry on supplies as the southern front and Dnepr by constantly preventing train transports.
\nThe road network in winter is almost impassable and if they have to tow the mechanic long distances there will be lots of technical faults and standing wagons \u2013 all good.
\nThe train they blew up in that 15km tunnel was probably to prevent transports from China in the future \u2013 very neat and if I understood correctly the only railway of value between the countries which is now cut?
\nEDIT: saw that LW clarified that it was the only tunnel to NK so no more ammo from there.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/infoagestrategy\/status\/1730192276654112842?s=46&t=_pr5py8jRzw75VHvhB_O3g<\/a><\/p>\n

One now pairs this with a wave of liberation acts against depots and for uniforms, food, ammunition, and so on, so the larger depots in the near rear are burning like Walpurgis Night bonfires right now. If the soldiers don\u2019t get winter clothes or food, it\u2019s just as bad as ammunition shortage.<\/p>\n

The UA plan is solid, to punch a sufficiently large hole at the Dnieper and southern front, and they are slowly on their way to succeed. That \u201cmiddle line\u201d that the 104th AAD is supposed to fortify will naturally be jeopardized by breakthroughs at the southern front between Vasylivka \u2013 Verbove, and then it\u2019s chaos again.<\/p>\n

Here the mountain troops have started moving near Vasylivka.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1730097858697719826?s=46&t=QkVp_z2XOwwvdRhz1T6YaA<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is an interesting first-hand account from the Dnieper
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/AleksandrX13\/status\/1728831223165022247?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Here it\u2019s misery all the way to Kreminna, only the bravest dare to surrender. WARNING PRISONER DO NOT OPEN ILLEGALLY.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/danspiun\/status\/1729476283401138367?s=46&t=EPU594BcRwAesuGNxa8e-g<\/a><\/p>\n

A reflection on H..as and the prisoner exchange: I don\u2019t believe all 140 or whatever the number was are alive. Likely H\u2026as has become so excited about torturing J\u2026ars to death that many have probably died in captivity \u2013 a wild guess of course but highly probable, we\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

When you thought you couldn\u2019t be surprised anymore, H\u2026as hid prisoners with an employee at UNRWA, nationality unclear.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/mishtal\/status\/1729937013258809607?s=46&t=HXhA6mhrx2A19K9C6PMOBQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently some doctor also offered his house as a prison.<\/p>\n

I get the feeling that aid organizations have set a goal to operate in G\u2026a first and then accepted that they have had to coexist with H\u2026as and turn a blind eye to everything they were doing. If they had raised the issue, they would have been thrown out and they felt that was a worse option. Since H\u2026as is a designated terrorist organization, this is criminal on all possible penalty scales, that\u2019s what happens when you sit in a closed echo chamber and things start to go wrong \u2013 facilitating terrorists to commit mass murder. I have no hope that the UN, Red Cross, Doctors Without Borders, and the others will be prosecuted but I assume that the entire West will cease all support to all organizations and P\u2026a until there is irrefutable evidence that ties to H\u2026as have been severed. After all, it is our tax money that has built tunnels for H\u2026as and I don\u2019t have that much to spare to be generous with concrete tunnels. We have a tight Christmas here at home in the lower class and my son won\u2019t think a concrete tunnel to H\u2026as as a Christmas present is especially great.<\/p>\n

For those of you who have been following the thread for a while, you know my exuberant joy over the ZSU23-2 and how this weapon can be mounted on all sorts of vehicles. Hard to beat is still the ZSU23-4. Good for urban combat and simply an all-round weapon that now also suits shooting down drones.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1729858060183642612?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

New turrets from Italy on old Leopard chassis, nice. Then you get 2023\u2019s bite in the vehicles again. This program should obviously have started in February 2022 but better late than never.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nichoconcu\/status\/1730324586737140085?s=46&t=XV_nUiX1zNPWxp3aLnZTvA<\/a><\/p>\n

Exciting underwater drones but that\u2019s chuck so some caution there, he rarely sticks to the truth.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/chuckpfarrer\/status\/1729490001635807278?s=46&t=EPU594BcRwAesuGNxa8e-g<\/a><\/p>\n

Watch a bit into this film and you\u2019ll see that China has absolutely embraced the drone weapon. If China, which is top-down controlled to the fingertips, can adopt the latest technology, then Sweden should already have drones at the squad level throughout the armed forces because we are supposed to be at the forefront of everything (right?).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kanthan2030\/status\/1730230293896818885?s=46&t=XV_nUiX1zNPWxp3aLnZTvA<\/a><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Ru has realized the value of glide bombs and set up a training program for that\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ralee85\/status\/1730393271795388432?s=46&t=XV_nUiX1zNPWxp3aLnZTvA<\/a><\/p>\n

We are always supposed to interpret nuances in what Zelensky says or some statement from Zalizny, and it is always that Ukraine will soon give up in that misinterpretation.
\nObvious Russian psyops are making the rounds and we are also always supposed to interpret that as truth even though there are never sources, only third parties and obvious lies.
\nThen when Scholz, Biden, and Zelensky as well as many other representatives of the free West go out and strongly promise to fight until Russia has lost, you have to admit that the Russian influence operation has rolled over and died, right?
\nStoltenberg could hardly be clearer here, in my opinion \u2013 Russia is really seriously on the decline.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nato\/status\/1730167043725328564?s=46&t=_pr5py8jRzw75VHvhB_O3g<\/a><\/p>\n

Positive-positive on a Friday is good, we apparently had our Friday pub yesterday so maybe that\u2019s why I\u2019m still a bit positive from the fumes. That it\u2019s the first of December also cheers me up \ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s report!<\/p>\n

Very entertaining to see the railway destroyed. Hope that will accelerate!<\/p>\n

Regarding your messed-up Twitter feed..
\nI have created a Ukraine list with almost 80 accounts that I follow. I basically only look at that list and have pinned it. So I have \u201cFor you,\u201d \u201cFollowing,\u201d and \u201cUkraine\u201d to choose from at the top on Twitter.<\/p>\n

In that list, I never get anything other than posts from those I follow (except ads, of course).
\nIf you haven\u2019t tried using a list, do so if you want to avoid seeing junk.<\/p>\n

Then I do notice that there are a lot of stupid comments on all sorts of posts but that\u2019s hard to do anything about.<\/p>\n

Under \u201cFor you,\u201d there is of course some junk and that has increased a bit, but not too bad. I don\u2019t look at that feed very often so it\u2019s hard to say.<\/p>\n

I almost imagine that Twitter pushes more weird random posts when you follow few accounts than when you follow many. There simply has to be something new to show in the feed all the time and then they squeeze in just about anything. But that\u2019s just a theory I have.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks for the tip, I\u2019m completely in a state of dissolution now that my safe space was invaded.<\/p>\n

Yes, I actually have a list with about 80 accounts but even in that not everything shows up and I usually have to go directly to individual accounts to see everything they have written.<\/p>\n

The last is interesting because I follow only 11 accounts and the feed is still full, so maybe I get a bit more random stuff as you say?<\/p>\n

I think the liberation acts against the railway will run rampant going forward because it effectively prevents maintenance for the war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:43 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

I agree that you don\u2019t get to see everything they write, even if they are on the list, and it has gotten worse.
\nIt\u2019s probably part of an effort to get more users to pay and become \u201cblue\u201d to get increased reach.
\nThen I don\u2019t even think posts from blue users reach everyone either (probably so they choose to sponsor their own posts, just like how it works on Facebook).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Unfortunately for Russians, their EV jamming systems are completely ineffective against the new generation of FPV drones from UA.
\nAlarming, to say the least, for the Russians and really good news.<\/p>\n

As long as the Russians are in Ukraine, it will cost them 50 hard vehicles and 1500 barbarians in unusable condition \u2013 how many years do they expect to manage that?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1730554670198722968?s=46&t=XV_nUiX1zNPWxp3aLnZTvA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Per day, it would also mean making it as unattractive as possible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:58 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

When it comes to Russia and losses, there are always two dominant views \u2013 <\/p>\n

– the loss figures must be exaggerated because no one can take losses that big.<\/p>\n

– Russia can take any size losses, they have unlimited mobilizable reserves.<\/p>\n

With Ukraine, it\u2019s always like this \u2013 <\/p>\n

– Ukraine\u2019s loss figures must be higher, they can\u2019t be that low.<\/p>\n

– Ukraine can\u2019t take these losses, they will want to give up soon.<\/p>\n

Why can\u2019t it be the other way around \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The barbarians will (likely) try to retreat down to an interim line 25-30 km east. The 104th AAD (which isn\u2019t much AA at all) is fortifying it.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not a fully prepared defense but UA must stop and expand the bridgehead before they can advance towards the barbarians\u2019 strongholds further east.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 we will get a beautiful breakthrough at the Dnieper but then it will stop at an interim line, and then anything can happen and nothing is good for the barbarians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If everyone had read the blog and LW\u2019s texts or Martin Kragh, everyone would have understood that Russia would attack \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

There is also a very tangible reason why the Swedish Armed Forces militarized Gotland early.<\/p>\n

In 2014, Ukraine\u2019s army was basically zeroed out. It was Russia\u2019s plan to corrupt the armed forces away and then take over the country.<\/p>\n

They invaded eastern Ukraine and Crimea and had the whole narrative \u2013 I bought into it and thought Ukraine was brutal and heartless.<\/p>\n

Those who volunteered to defend the country may not have been the best of people but the administration had no choice. There were quite a few volunteer glorified militias with rather questionable flags and pennants.<\/p>\n

But the army\u2019s brigades in some cases couldn\u2019t even field a company when mobilized, there was nothing.<\/p>\n

The West started a training program for the army but they didn\u2019t really get any proper weapons, did they?<\/p>\n

After a couple of years, things calmed down a bit and the whole war fell into oblivion for everyone except Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Over time, Ukraine got its armed forces somewhat in order but thanks to Macron and the Germans\u2019 promises that Putin wouldn\u2019t attack and the bribes from the FSB apparently paid out in southern Ukraine, the Russians made advances there because the defense wasn\u2019t in the field but in the bases, no bridges were blown up and Ahkp took them out on the highway when they tried to reach assembly points.<\/p>\n

In Kiev, the city was saved by veterans who ran to the mob caches and armed themselves and after Hostomel was secured and the Russians\u2019 BTG started moving straight east towards Kiev, in some cases platoons at strategic places held them long enough with their own 90% losses.<\/p>\n

If UA had mobilized and mined according to all the rules of the art, RU would never have been able to break out from Crimea \u2013 this is something Zelensky will have to live with and above all, we must not forget Macron\u2019s and the Germans\u2019 (I think it was some high-ranking military who spoke for them) treason when they did the Russians\u2019 bidding.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:19 \u2013 Johan No.1 The snow leopards \u270a https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1730216527247368526?s=46&t=_pr5py8jRzw75VHvhB_O3g Thanks for all the kind support yesterday that I should work […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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