{"id":8522,"date":"2023-12-15T10:06:47","date_gmt":"2023-12-15T09:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-15-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:34:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:34:57","slug":"2023-12-15-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-15-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-15"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>11:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>In recent weeks, various new truths have started to be discussed that align more with what the positive side in the thread has thought and believed throughout the year, and that&#8217;s fun. No one except Ukraine has all the data, and everyone in the West makes qualified assessments based on more or less accurate information. So if the thread manages to get things right on issues, isn&#8217;t that a good testament to its analytical ability?<\/p>\n<p>Besides that \u2013 there has previously been much speculation that Putin will not order mobilization before he has won the election in March.<br \/>\nNow Putin essentially confirmed that in his speech, and it&#8217;s easy to see the logic in this \u2013 deceive the citizens, win the election, devastate the country once you are secure, I think it seems credible.<\/p>\n<p>I am among those who believed that Russia cannot mobilize, but we will have to wait until March; I think the only large-scale oligarch that is more afraid of something than their wives at dinner tables now that weekend trips to London are impossible is a popular revolution. A million men under arms could take over the country; we reached that conclusion already in January this year, didn&#8217;t we?<\/p>\n<p>However, a stickler for order wants to point out that this is a whole year after the mobilization that was supposed to happen voluntarily on April 7, 2023, and be 425,000 strong or similar.<\/p>\n<p>What is crystal clear here is that the Russian army is in decline until March 2024 + at least 2-3 months due to the election.<br \/>\nThat is why I write that we will see in the next three months how this develops because here is Ukraine&#8217;s opportunity to go on the offensive this winter or early spring, maybe mid-April \ud83d\ude00<br \/>\nThere is little logic in waiting for Russian mobilization, letting them finish training, and then watching them frog-march out to the trenches and start firing single shots towards Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>So with this in mind, it is time for the West to open the warehouses and give Ukraine everything they point to \ud83e\udd2c<br \/>\nAgain \u2013 20 ATACMS took out +20 Ahkp, can the US ever get better yield from its ammunition?<br \/>\nI understand that the EU&#8217;s eastern border cannot send much, and that includes Sweden, but a country like Portugal or Spain can send everything they have deployed. Instead of that COVID support of hundreds of billions, the EU could at least have bought lots of deployed equipment from the countries and sent it to Ukraine for the same money \u2013 buying your worn-out tanks at new price should be attractive enough even for a Spaniard?<br \/>\nSurely we can get something for all the money we promised them in COVID support that allowed them to introduce their four-day workweek.<\/p>\n<p>Winter should be to Ukraine&#8217;s advantage \u2013 Russian units have consistently come poorly equipped throughout the war, and Russian soldiers drink a lot of alcohol and take drugs. Poor maintenance is also somewhat of a national sport in Russia, so cold and rain should hit them magnitudes worse than Ukraine.<br \/>\nFor those paying attention, Ukraine has received enormous winter packages ahead of this winter and not least many Bandvagn 206 that can go anywhere, 200 according to David D.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1735490913927831664?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1735490913927831664?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>We have seen videos of home guard in snow suits, so it seems to be available in large quantities at units.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1734942479080628603?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1734942479080628603?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then we have a longer period of darkness which is also an advantage for Ukraine because they have the upper hand in night combat capability. The attentive have also not missed the tens of thousands of image intensifiers delivered, all night sights for personal weapons, and last but not least, all Western tanks with thermal sights, including the old Eastern tanks.<\/p>\n<p>The sky-high losses continue, and Ukraine itself speaks of at least 1:5 in losses when they speak officially \u2013 one is deceived by Ukraine&#8217;s OPSEC cover and that Russia has purged negative voices into believing it is stalemate, but losses have never been this high in the entire war as they have been in recent months.<br \/>\nIt is presumably a combination of Russian attacks, Ukrainian indirect fire deep behind enemy lines, and Ukrainian attacks.<\/p>\n<p>A single brigade took out 30 hard vehicles in two days, and they are outside Mariinka, not even Avdiivka.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1735482809630744940?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1735482809630744940?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Possibly the 5th Tank Brigade is up in the Kharkiv region, could be a detached battalion, I don&#8217;t know.<\/p>\n<p>The 83rd GAAB has been sent to the Dnipro front \u2013 it was thus severely decimated up in Bakhmut and can&#8217;t be many hundred strong.<\/p>\n<p>The 56th VDV has taken astronomical losses according to a post by Erik14 yesterday.<\/p>\n<p>50% of daily losses seem often to have been taken at Avdiivka. On the unit maps, there are many DPR units in the area, which means that the overall defense of Donbass is decimated because Russia has handed over responsibility for the darkest Donbass to the rebels. A very Russian quick-fix.<\/p>\n<p>I really want to highlight Pollinering4Hire in yesterday&#8217;s thread with December&#8217;s big scoop, I break copyright and will probably get jailed for this \u2013<br \/>\n&#8220;Interesting detail:<br \/>\nPutin&#8217;s heavy coin slipped a bit, easy to happen when you lie a lot, and he said earlier today in a long monologue, embedded among all other crap, that Ukraine has lost 747 tanks in the war.<br \/>\nI think the information may be correct, and that the Russian army&#8217;s communications department is not entirely happy that this number came out.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>747 tanks is probably a correct figure; when I thought about it again, Oryx probably has better data for Ukrainian losses than Russian losses for the simple reason that many Russian tanks are in blind spots on the map.<br \/>\nI landed around a thousand, and Oryx had 700. That obviously means that Ukraine has 253 more tanks than I guessed, which is super fun \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>The big point, however, is that it clearly tells us (proof as close as possible!) that Putin has correct data. There is a long-standing myth that Putin never gets the truth to relate to and that he gets H&#8230;er&#8217;s map warfare in the bunker to appear as a great victory; now we can file that away.<br \/>\nNow we know that Putin has a good grip on the numbers \u2013 a really nice post by Pollinering4Hire, I like when claims or assumptions can be proven, loose threads can never be mentally dropped and cause so much lost sleep, Christmas is saved \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<p>It doesn&#8217;t end there because Putin said in the speech that there are 617,000 in Ukraine, everyone seems to think that is more than the West knows, but isn&#8217;t it rather under the estimate of +800,000 that some believe?<br \/>\nSo that&#8217;s good, I think?<\/p>\n<p>It is also absolutely very interesting that a lot of uncomfortable questions came up on the prompter during Putin&#8217;s presumably live Q&amp;A. These were no mistakes but someone let through directly damaging questions. Something that has probably never happened before, I guess?<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/khodorkovsky_en\/status\/1735254584937885705?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/khodorkovsky_en\/status\/1735254584937885705?s=20<\/a><br \/>\nUA hacker attack or Russian opposition making a move?<\/p>\n<p>That Ukraine will disrupt the election and try to make Putin lose is a long shot, for me Putin&#8217;s arrogance is enormous when he doesn&#8217;t even realize that for once he is exposing himself. If Ukraine can hack the tax agency and permanently erase all information, they could probably on election night get out that Putin has lost on all TV channels, right?<br \/>\nAnyway, this is another piece of the puzzle that not everything is right behind the Potemkin facade in Russia.<\/p>\n<p>The whole division&#8217;s Christmas flight was probably what Fram i Natten saw.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/svfmf21\/status\/1734597082122535170?s=46&amp;t=3CtGbgC9sfNy0VmP_Jk2sA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/svfmf21\/status\/1734597082122535170?s=46&amp;t=3CtGbgC9sfNy0VmP_Jk2sA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Back to Putin&#8217;s Q&amp;A which can be considered a minor catastrophe of biblical proportions \ud83d\ude00<br \/>\nHis letter agencies have paid billions for the influence operation that a negotiated peace is the way forward for Ukraine to get peace, right?<br \/>\nPutin clarifies the concepts at prime time for the whole world to see \u2013 all of Ukraine shall be conquered.<br \/>\nHe has suddenly solved Ukraine&#8217;s desert march for them because now all the West&#8217;s weapon packages are coming in streamlined jumps \u2013 wait and see. Putin is really the West&#8217;s best friend.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1735375690327818303?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1735375690327818303?s=46&amp;t=W7kdz-1tavQNxc7gWuEiOQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>At least the Germans have really taken charge now \u2013 they threw out Orban so they could vote for Ukraine into the EU, but then the Germans have asked all weapons manufacturers for an inventory of what can be sent to Ukraine in 2024. The man who sets the courage in the West delivers again, he deserves full credit for that and also for his magical clothing style and hairstyle.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1735436590837588035?s=46&amp;t=n6CVPYSDVwaU0BaNA7t6kQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1735436590837588035?s=46&amp;t=n6CVPYSDVwaU0BaNA7t6kQ<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>RU is engaging in the national sport of goal sliding again and lets it be known that Avdiivka is not important. First, Erik14 could post that Putin in his kindness lets the units on the left bank of the Dnieper be so they will die of old age, and then tens of thousands of Russian losses around Avdiivka are unimportant because the place does not need to be conquered now, the great leader has in his wisdom received new visions and squints towards the horizon with a contemplative expression, he thinks, but it mostly looks like he is about to have a stroke.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1734934830897377413?s=46&amp;t=jioiGHaH4bfQciea9kImcQ\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1734934830897377413?s=46&amp;t=jioiGHaH4bfQciea9kImcQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It was exciting that we got a lot of information in Putin&#8217;s Q&amp;A and that he ensured that the West will deliver what Ukraine needs.<br \/>\nA Ukraine that has already got its combat command, its maneuver brigades, and its fire support in order.<br \/>\nThere will come a day when Putin in his great wisdom, and kindness, lets us know by decree that it is not important to conquer Ukraine and that it is also not important to be in Ukraine because the goal of the special operation is now achieved only marginally later than scheduled.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, the conditions for a land grab are worse now but the observant have seen that only a few hundred of the 8,000 vehicles delivered by the West have been lost so The Big Bang is still simmering and waiting for the right moment.<br \/>\nIf Ukraine can just get promises of more vehicles, they don&#8217;t need to skimp on what they have and can start taking terrain, which is what we will see going forward, if the West can finally compose itself, which they are well on their way to doing if we are not completely misreading the signals \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Interesting that it was almost exactly Oryx&#8217;s figure then but the source has denied what he said and then we have to continue to hover in uncertainty about whether Putin is well informed or not \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p>On 11 October the figure was 600 according to the article below from RU sources so that does not match Putin&#8217;s figure either. There hasn&#8217;t been much of a Ukrainian offensive since then. Then those figures are completely pulled out of thin air anyway but just to show that it doesn&#8217;t match.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/world\/2023\/10\/30\/Ukraine-s-army-suffered-90-000-casualties-during-counter-offensive-Russia-s-Shoigu\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/world\/2023\/10\/30\/Ukraine-s-army-suffered-90-000-casualties-during-counter-offensive-Russia-s-Shoigu<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>12:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>On 7 October I thought more would come but it hasn&#8217;t and that means Pearsson lied in his book and I want my money back.<\/p>\n<p>China has not shown its cards yet but I lean towards them not wanting a global conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Russia bet everything on red and lost, I think the probability is higher that China will steal back what they lost in the 1800s to Russia than that they declare war on the West but those are just my thoughts in the parents&#8217; basement \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>Sounds like a perfectly excellent idea in my opinion \ud83d\ude00<br \/>\nIt has been on the table before and you could probably broaden it to a whole bunch of different vehicles?<br \/>\nThe USA has mine-resistant vehicles, Strykers, M1117, M113, Bradley, M60, Abrams and a whole fleet of vehicles.<\/p>\n<p>Then we have that company in Belgium that has 500 vehicles in stock.<\/p>\n<p>Bulgaria&#8217;s 3,000 vehicles but they seem to be on the way.<\/p>\n<p>Greece has an enormous vehicle fleet and might accept cash for weapons even if Turkey is a bit of a threat to them?<\/p>\n<p>Modification program of Leo1 \u2013 with the new Italian turrets?<\/p>\n<p>If the West cut a few percent in expenses that are fun but not core missions, they could give Ukraine everything they point to.<\/p>\n<p>Since they have received all the vehicles, you presumably now have your own instructors for training?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:35 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-2\">\n<h4>15:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n<p>\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11:01 \u2013 Johan No.1 In recent weeks, various new truths have started to be discussed that align more with what [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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