{"id":8526,"date":"2023-12-17T09:28:07","date_gmt":"2023-12-17T08:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-17-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:35:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:35:45","slug":"2023-12-17-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-17-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Watch this video with John McCain from 2014 \u2013 every word was true as we know now and looking ahead we have guessed that the Baltics and Moldova are in a bad position, right?
\nYou remember Putin’s plan that we discussed in the thread in 2022 where Serbia, Turkey, and Hungary immediately become allies, Moldova and the Baltics fall, and Ukraine is conquered.
\nI don’t even know when Russia invaded Transnistria, so little has been written about it in the media.
\nI belong to those who believe that Putin had again succeeded with something in the gray zone, a fallen government, pro-Russian government, or similar that made NATO’s Article 5 confusing or that he simply quickly overran the Baltics and NATO had to decide whether it was worth an offensive with 200,000 dead to liberate the Baltics.
\nAlso interesting that T\u2026p’s biggest hate object was this gentleman and he was involved in Qanon, someone did not like him.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/witter_dude\/status\/1735943175447994482?s=46&t=CSBrgn6xE9LJ289H_Q_lmg<\/a><\/p>\n

Those who talk about a negotiated peace being possible, welcome, or inevitable have either understood nothing or are doing the Russians’ bidding.
\nThe free West has to relate to a democratic box because if you go outside it in your effort to fight a dictatorship, you become a dictatorship yourself which helps no one.
\nIn Russia, you are thrown out of a window if you criticize Putin and all opposition is either controlled or silenced while it is a prioritized state function to destabilize the West and they can do that because we are democracies.
\nThe West must at the same time with a majority vote through everything that Putin can decide on entirely by himself and that takes time.
\nI want to claim that the West is incredibly lucky that Putin attacked Ukraine first because their willingness to fight has enabled the West’s mills to grind in peace.
\nBut everything has a limit and not sending weapons and ammunition is, in my opinion, accepting an unreasonably high risk.
\nUkraine is not immune to everything and if we think the psyops are running at full speed in the West, they are like an atomic bomb in Ukraine, no one knows who they can trust \u2013 everyone can be Russian agents. Probably also why people clash from time to time, they are simply oversensitive.
\nWhen they got to Budanov with poison, you understand that they reach quite far, right, and Zelensky has probably survived about a dozen assassination attempts by now.<\/p>\n

For everyone who has the ability for critical thinking, it is crystal clear that doing nothing is not an option, then it gets worse and ends with us fiddling with an AK4 in a few years.
\nEven in the thread, doubts creep in \u2013 “the West has nothing more to send” has been debunked many times but comes up from time to time completely immune to facts.
\nThe next myth is that “Russia can build away from the West” and that has also been debunked, only BAE can manufacture 50% of the heavy-caliber ammunition the whole country of Russia can produce.<\/p>\n

It is an enormously pressured situation for UA and they MUST get good news constantly, do you remember the NATO meeting where many representatives went out and called Ukraine ungrateful, the British defense minister had to apologize for that. Putin could not have done it better himself and it was a monumental PR failure from the West.<\/p>\n

EU accession was a stroke of genius, hats off, but now weapons and ammunition are needed.
\nThen sanctions that really make a difference are needed, there is a whole palette left to pick from.
\nThen the West actually needs to bring forward a volunteer movement to participate in the war in Ukraine, the West has at best been indifferent and at worst hindered it.
\nToday there are probably more who fought for ISIS than who have gone to Ukraine\u2026
\nIf you run campaigns and make it a defense of Europe and status, maybe more will feel called?
\nBecause Ukraine is either running out of mobilizable personnel or at least lowering the age, consider that many have also left the country and that the inhabitants of Donbass are fighting on the other side.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1736159711987118193?s=46&t=CSBrgn6xE9LJ289H_Q_lmg<\/a><\/p>\n

I have a thought that international soldiers are recruited for border protection against Belarus who take over the surveillance so that the brigades there can be freed.
\nOne should also recruit for qualified services within artillery and air defense.
\nThe International Legion has probably been used quite hard due to their competence but there is some risk that the rumor has spread that it is a death sentence and that has deterred further applications.
\n(The whole West’s) SOF is another attractive service where you have a bit more choice about whether you survive and where expertise beats chance so one should actively recruit veterans there.
\nYou can thus enter with troops and take over functions against e.g. Belarus without entering with troops \u2013 this should be attractive, I think?<\/p>\n

The war is enormously exhausting for Ukraine and no country is immune to setbacks, rest in peace is the name of this one.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/girkingirkin\/status\/1735957341055369357?s=46&t=H4Vv0PX_5xA4CNmoR93sug<\/a><\/p>\n

The country Ukraine has now fought for its existence for two years and thanks to the West not allowing Ukraine to shoot into Russian territory, there will be bombings of the electrical infrastructure this winter as well \u2013 this is completely incredible \ud83e\udd2c
\n46 Iskander platforms would have required 46 Storm Shadow and then the Iskander weapon would be gone.<\/p>\n

Then I want to clarify about the number in the daily killed list \u2013 of course, wounded who are transported home, frostbite, or disabled barracks deep down are not counted, right?
\nWith these enormous moon craters from beautifully exploding ammunition depots, there could be hundreds of dead depot workers?
\nThey count bodies on the battlefield when the smoke has cleared and make a best estimate which I perceive as conservative. We have seen several videos where photo evidence was required for them to be counted.
\nWagner was considered by the thread to have the most dead and least wounded in the war and they themselves stated 1:2 if I remember correctly, we have gone through this already.
\n+300,000 dead is by no means unrealistic considering time, length of the front, and intensity of the fighting.
\nAnd then when do you report dead + wounded in a war, google how WW2, the Vietnam War, Afghanistan, and so on are reported \u2013 it is in dead.
\nFor my part, it is +300,000 dead and 1:2 which I consider conservative.<\/p>\n

Then we must not be fooled into thinking it is a stalemate, UA has the opsec cover and RU has banned negative portrayals of the war \u2013 the losses are absolutely enormous which indicates very high intensity.<\/p>\n

A good initiative that the Black Sea should be cleared of mines.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1736218004411564043?s=46&t=CSBrgn6xE9LJ289H_Q_lmg<\/a><\/p>\n

Modern artillery for the Home Guard, here maybe you understand that they are brigades with bite.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1736018001340572105?s=46&t=H4Vv0PX_5xA4CNmoR93sug<\/a><\/p>\n

China has decided to copy the Russian subversive activities, maybe if Russia is made a “state sponsor of terrorism” it will be deterrent?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1735735297227296840?s=46&t=H4Vv0PX_5xA4CNmoR93sug<\/a><\/p>\n

The Houthi rebels’ attacks in the Red Sea are of course a commissioned job just like October 7, but have you understood the number of attacks?
\nBoarding of ships \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/detresfa_\/status\/1735979072126423252?s=46&t=H4Vv0PX_5xA4CNmoR93sug<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is by no means out of the game; they probably have a few cards left in hand, and the rumor that they will instigate a false flag to trick China into acting is possible. For my part, I now believe that China has not gone all-in on this, because if they had, we would already have seen a sharply raised tone to build up to an active phase. They say strike while the iron is hot, and if the West solves the conflicts one by one, they can then take on China instead of being fully occupied in MENA, Ukraine, and a few other places.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 yes, it is time for Russia to be fundamentally defeated in Ukraine, and the West simply has to accept that Ukraine will continue with acts of liberation for a long future with the goal of making Russia turn inward. In fact, we should be grateful for that because then the country will be decolonized, which by the way is very fashionable, and a lesser threat in the future.
\nAs long as they keep their imperial ambitions, it is only a matter of time before it blows up again.<\/p>\n

A better opportunity will probably never come again, and our ancestors would have prosecuted us for negligence if we actively try to slow down a perfectly natural development. Especially since we have already tried to give them everything they pointed to, and that brought us here.
\nThis autumn, Ukraine has shown a high capacity for acts of liberation in the country Russia, and the country Russia has shown an absolute inability to prevent them.<\/p>\n

It is December, and city after city is having the lights turned off, which has led to large protests, which is good \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:13 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thank you!<\/p>\n

I have long thought that NATO should step in and take over border protection against Belarus (Putin can grumble about that, but it can hardly be seen as a direct threat to Russia), but maybe it is more realistic that it happens with the help of volunteers. The problem is probably that it is not so damn easy to go down, at least not for active military personnel who both risk losing their jobs when they come home, and partly stand without proper insurance (if I understand correctly).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

There is still some political deadlock around it, and my point was to make it attractive to go and fight in Ukraine \u2013 that was the whole idea behind the proposal \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Previously, the armed forces valued foreign service very highly \u2013 can\u2019t they value work experience in killing Russians just as highly then?
\nThey should.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Completely agree!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Watch this video with John McCain from 2014 \u2013 every word was true as we know 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