{"id":8530,"date":"2023-12-18T11:23:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-18T10:23:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-12-18-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-27T12:36:20","modified_gmt":"2026-09-27T10:36:20","slug":"2023-12-18-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2023-12-18-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-12-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Continuing a bit from yesterday about how poisoned the climate is in Ukraine, it has been suggested that Rezhnikov’s dismissal was a successful Russian psyops.
\nNo one knows who they can trust and everyone is suspicious, there are three branches within the ground forces that are surely fighting for the spotlight and there are contenders for power, and Russia is trying its best to create chaos.
\nI believe that Zelensky has been lucky that the ABC agencies in Ukraine largely smoked out the pro-Russians before this war and that they have been on the right side, managing the constant low-intensity war in the shadows.<\/p>\n

At Robotyne, it looks like UA is going on the defensive now, I think?<\/p>\n

The 3rd Assault brigade seems to have been rotated out of Bakhmut, they had 6-7 months of continuous fighting on an active front. Russian brigades are pulled out after weeks when they are the attacking party.<\/p>\n

Did you know that the police set up brigades that are under offensive guard, i.e. NG?
\nMilitaryland is always fun, UA has 10 airborne brigades which are probably more like light mechanized.
\nhttps:\/\/militaryland.net\/ukraine\/<\/a>
\nScroll down under the army brigades and you will find the NG and all the others, and under the army you can choose armor, infantry, reconnaissance, etc.
\nUkraine has an enormous defense force, to say the least.<\/p>\n

RU is attacking near Avdiivka, Bakhmut and northern Luhansk if I understand this correctly, and the recent days’ armored attacks with expected results are up in Kupiansk. Something that didn\u2019t work at Avdiivka is naturally now being tried up in northern Luhansk \u2013 no prize for guessing that RU wants to reach the Oskil river and secure its northern flank \u2013 discussed many times in the thread last winter when they couldn\u2019t get out of the starting blocks up there due to the hornet swarm.
\nRU has pulled away about a dozen brigades from northern Luhansk, including the entire VDV, and they have already lost about a dozen brigades in offensives.
\nAccording to a previous assessment of Russian capability that we discussed, RU had a redundancy of about a dozen brigades so they have exceeded that significantly which means they are weak in the area.
\nAccording to earlier discussion, UA is not weak in this area.<\/p>\n

Now the big question is whether more strategic reserves have been added \u2013 we usually get news when that happens, 104th VDV, 25th CAA and when the VDV divisions were moved to the southern front.
\n3rd AC seems to have arrived in northern Luhansk as well and they are not newly formed but were completely withdrawn and apparently reorganized so they are considered strategic reserve. Where exactly the 25th CAA is, is unclear to me.
\nI maintain that I think RU is weakening itself in northern Luhansk with these offensive operations but it is also possible that they have sneaked in strategic reserves that plug the holes, 3rd AC and 25th AC.
\nIt would be nice if someone had information about strategic reserves that have been added.
\nHow do you wrestle northern Luhansk \u2013 well, you attack into the northern Oblasts \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

According to earlier, it never hurts to remind that RU losses have been at ATH constantly this autumn since September. They are losing enormous amounts of materiel and barbarians.
\nAutumn 2022 the Russians were absolutely panicked after the losses and mobilized 300,000 of whom 80,000 were sent directly to the front and the rest trained for varying lengths of time.
\nThat was enough for a winter offensive to try to regain the initiative after a dull autumn and when they ran out of gas UA took over.
\nUA has been chipping away at RU units on active fronts since then and for the RU autumn offensive they have added some strategic reserves and brigades that have been rotated in rest.
\nIn October RU lost over 500 tanks or over 20% of the total they have in Ukraine \u2013 that can\u2019t possibly be replaced in the short term.
\nApparently they have lost just over 1,000 in total since 11 October according to CIA analyst Erik14, a lovely lottery number.<\/p>\n

I believe the strategic reserves that should be in training are 3 MRD, 2 AAD, 2 CAA, 1 AC + some other small stuff.
\nhttps:\/\/www.criticalthreats.org\/analysis\/restructuring-and-expansion-of-the-russian-ground-forces-hindered-by-ukraine-war-requirements<\/a>
\nI have the impression that a fully equipped CAA should be 80,000 strong but 25 CAA was about 15,000 when they arrived?
\n104th AAD and 25th CAA are probably exhausted today, unclear if that applies to 25th CAA?
\nRU should therefore have something similar left in strategic reserves that were used up over two months, simplified.
\nMy assessment remains that if RU does not carry out mobilization they are on a very steep downward slope.<\/p>\n

Either Moldova will retake Transnistria or RU has something going on.
\nIt would probably be enough with one airmobile brigade from Ukraine to retake the area, no information at all though about that and Moldova\u2019s equipment seems quite okay judging by the pictures so maybe trained and equipped by the West?
\nAs an incurable optimist, I believe the liberation of Transnistria is underway \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1736418698749981052?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding the losses I brought up yesterday, neither the USA, UK, BBC nor Medusa mention the 600,000 wounded veterans in LPR. I think that is very poor and shows that their numbers are unreliable. Even if it covers the entire Donbass or (only) is 250,000, it is a number that none of them have accounted for, right?
\nWe know the rebels were around 25,000 at the start of the war and that mobilization in the first months took them to over 100,000. At some point during 2022 these 25,000 were no more, we read.<\/p>\n

They have mobilized everything that can go without support from LPR and DPR throughout the war and they have been the hardest used all war \u2013 the rebels have been sacrificed first.
\nSometimes it says that only older-old people remain in LPR and DPR which is probably not true but a combination of mobilization and avoiding mobilization has probably meant there are not many mobilizable left.
\nYes, there can absolutely be hundreds of thousands wounded in LPR and DPR and then 87% losses of the contract army + Wagner + the rebels do not add up with the number the MoD or USA push out.<\/p>\n

Just as a comparison, Ukraine had 1.2 million veterans before the war started I think.
\nIf 87% of the original barbarian horde of 190,000 have been used up then you can guess how it has gone for all the others \u2013 Wagner, LPR, DPR, the 300,000 mobilized, the 20,000 mobilized every month and so on.
\nWagner disappeared from the war, it went that badly for them, there were 13,000 \u2013 25,000 left if I understood correctly from a total number of 80,000 or something?
\nLPR and DPR have been run even harder than Wagner.
\nThe 300,000 mobilized started fighting in autumn 2022.
\nMy opinion.<\/p>\n

By the way, Geert W from the Netherlands is now popping up in my feed along with flat-earth, antivax and everything that raises blood pressure \u2013 did you know Rockefeller is among the biggest villains of all \ud83e\udd2c, Elon has invaded my safe-space light blue pillow room and I want my money back.<\/p>\n

We have discussed RU logistics a bit, how do you think it\u2019s going right now?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1736397678370566412?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a>
\nUkraine has 200 BV106 so they get logistics to prioritized brigades.
\nThen the partisans hit the trains as much as they can, Mariupol most recently an ammunition train.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/maniacmagic1\/status\/1735943875447910495?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a>
\nThe acts of liberation are at an extreme level right now and “freedom of Russia” has admitted they have infiltrated into Belgorod Oblast again so it is on!
\nA Russian sitting sulking in his water-filled pit does not get food, water and ammunition in the quantities needed \u2013 I am very sure of that.<\/p>\n

No lie is too big for T\u2026p, he was president during Covid \ud83e\udd23
\n“You have never had it better than when I was president,” yes, those were a couple of cheerful years during covid to say the least.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/beaglesresist\/status\/1736153619215327369?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a><\/p>\n

A side note but could this be the reason RU released Hinkle?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/d4nciingqueen\/status\/1736136243581194475?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently VDV in Mariinka, who exactly I do not know.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1736318142719185241?s=46&t=CSBrgn6xE9LJ289H_Q_lmg<\/a><\/p>\n

UA snipers, the second biggest Russian killer after artillery.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrreview\/status\/1736316912198422951?s=46&t=H7_AQVdOeztHvCg3CAZixA<\/a><\/p>\n

Wiretapping of Zalizny\u2019s office, constantly present Russian activity.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1736453251338260527?s=46&t=H7_AQVdOeztHvCg3CAZixA<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine, as said, is not immune, a territorial unit that is dissatisfied, it has been a long time since we saw something like that and it is a sad sign but what happened after we last saw them?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/uniquemongolia\/status\/1736012244905816342?s=46&t=CSBrgn6xE9LJ289H_Q_lmg<\/a><\/p>\n

RU artillery losses by type, now Grads are starting to emerge as number one here, any analysis on that?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1736077850837495999?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a><\/p>\n

This should not be underestimated, an older person extremely critical of Putin, yes, it is bubbling among the broad masses.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1736342522568347670?s=46&t=1HELEPWZ5GJUncSOdL2BMg<\/a><\/p>\n

Apparently that US destroyer in the Red Sea has shot down 50 air targets, probably a mix of drones and missiles since the Houthis fired anti-ship missiles at cargo vessels.
\nAgain \u2013 do you think Russia\u2019s analysts when evaluating this will conclude that they want to wage war against the West?
\nThere was some discussion in the thread about the threateningly large Baltic fleet in the Baltic Sea. Do you think they will fare better than the Black Sea fleet which was knocked out by a country without a navy?
\nIn all branches of weapons, RU weapons have severely underperformed and the West has done better than expected.
\nChina is not turning a blind eye, their analysts are also watching wide-eyed and with furrowed brows as this plays out.
\nRussia knows very well that they will spectacularly lose a war against the West, their technology is simply totally substandard.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s military is a notch better but the only war they can wage against the West is in the waters around China and their navy is completely outclassed by the West \u2013 we have done that homework in the thread.
\nAll this is therefore hot air and Russia still has the ambition to bully its way to land grabs and try to balance on a slack line and they are not a little cheeky when they still two years into this veritable fiasco believe in the West\u2019s incapacity.<\/p>\n

Our time\u2019s global conflict will either be stamped out or take off because of what is happening in Ukraine, the West has awakened so it is only a matter of time. Either Russia is defeated and there is peace in our time (for real) or the West continues to dawdle and gives Russia some corner they can twist into a win and then others follow and we here in the thread will be fiddling with AK4s in a few years.<\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion about Russia letting groups jump on other groups\u2019 core issues to create conflicts, I see more and more videos where anti-I\u2026el protests destroy Christmas markets, Christmas shopping and the Christmas joy of happy people. Course A1 in SVR\u2019s handbook on how to create divisions in the West.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1736508121701388591?s=46&t=Kw6-hfTnSnIOl1afW53sEA<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1736550028036984976?s=46&t=Kw6-hfTnSnIOl1afW53sEA<\/a><\/p>\n

Above I posted the link showing which artillery is being destroyed and Grad systems and more modern ones were on the rise.
\nToday it is vehicles.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1736500303124365562?s=46&t=Kw6-hfTnSnIOl1afW53sEA<\/a><\/p>\n

This one with tanks is also good.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1716558397384892425?s=20<\/a>
\nNoteworthy that older models have gone down sharply and newer models up.
\nAt the start of RU\u2019s autumn offensive they lost T80 and T90 in large numbers and since then T72 has trended.
\nI find it interesting that losses of older tanks have gone down and newer tanks have gone up \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

All arrows point upwards and are green except for Putin where they are red and point straight down. You have to give the Russians credit that they really manage to keep hope up in constant setbacks here, everything is really going badly. The West\u2019s big mistake is constantly keeping their hope alive, that NATO meeting is probably the biggest mistake of our time where the West showed irritation towards Ukraine and Putin can live off that for a long time as the negative parasite he is.
\nIf the West can just strategically communicate the war-winning weapons package Putin\u2019s Christmas joy will crash totally. Russian soldiers on the ground are not immune either and if a rumor spreads that Ukraine is fully re-equipped by a united West they will lose heart pretty quickly. Wagner\u2019s breaking point was summer 2023 and the army\u2019s breaking point will also come at some point.<\/p>\n

Russian units at the southern front were terrified before Ukraine got stuck in the minefields last summer, nerves on edge every day is pretty sad and if there are only bigger movements the Russian Potemkin facade will vanish like morning mist in sunshine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:24 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Danke.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Probably third since Erik14 is active here but have you seen the lottery numbers from the airfield attack?
\n2 SU-34s knocked out and 10 damaged.<\/p>\n

What a crazy jackpot \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\ude00\ud83d\ude4f<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1736789507616235735?s=46&t=F_dt1unB3D9JCbPf3eWkHg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

So that was the one in Russia the other day \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 Continuing a bit from yesterday about how poisoned the climate is in Ukraine, it has been 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