{"id":8705,"date":"2024-01-10T10:42:22","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T09:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:30:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:30:27","slug":"2024-01-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The post before Christmas I thought – “gods blessings” and the Heineken bar would draw some recognition from those unlucky enough to have flown Murtala Mohamed, but they didn\u2019t, so apparently I\u2019m quite alone with that punishment. You go to the Heineken bar to avoid overheating since it\u2019s one of the few places with air conditioning at that oven of an airport. On the way back this week, I joked a bit extra and made a new passport so that the visa application was valid for the old punched passport and threw both on the counter. It took a while but if there is any country where you can pay your way out of trouble, it\u2019s probably here, I thought, and it turned out to be true. The airline was harder to talk around.<\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion we had about them attacking at the southern front before all the minefields were set up \u2013 according to a link from, I believe, the Ombudsman yesterday, that was exactly what Zalizny wanted but the US stopped it.
\nhttps:\/\/africa.businessinsider.com\/military-and-defense\/ukraines-top-general-wanted-a-bold-counteroffensive-a-year-earlier-that-the-us\/kpfkzdx<\/a><\/p>\n

The idea was to sweep down and close the land bridge to Crimea and the bonus would have been that Kherson emptied itself voluntarily, right?
\nMaybe also surrounded and cut-off VDV units that surrendered?
\nConsidering that the entire VDV was near Kherson, there was merit in that battle plan, but the US wanted the right bank of the Dnipro cleared instead, meaning breaking through the entire VDV in defense.<\/p>\n

You absolutely boil over with stuff like this \ud83e\udd2c
\nIt was a Russian low point and all elite units were on the wrong side of the Dnipro.
\nThen the US goes out and urges Ukraine through the media not to attack during winter, they don\u2019t deliver equipment for the spring offensive, they demand NATO doctrine at the southern front which ends in a bloodbath, and now six months later the discussion is that Ukraine cannot win.
\nFeels more like they are not allowed to win because the US has given nothing but terrible advice all along here, the halo is not just crooked, it has completely fallen off\u2026<\/p>\n

The Snow Leopards
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1738295816006054040?s=46&t=6zKXvPDs7FIGhHM4r_tLfQ<\/a><\/p>\n

We already know this but UA didn\u2019t get what they wanted and according to Hodges it was an excellent wish list, detailed and balanced, to win the war. The equipment exists, we have irrefutable proof of that. I remember some figure Zelensky threw around that they wanted 400-500 MBTs and 1500 IFVs. With what the US just sold to Morocco, they would have actually gotten that in Western vehicles \ud83e\udd2c
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1744872630207799748?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This war is a national trauma and I am of the opinion that the West still treats Ukraine as second-class citizens but the other side of that coin is that the West could have done nothing as well \u2013 one might be grateful for what is done to some extent perhaps.
\nHowever, I do not understand the geopolitics at all here, the EU has the chance to “grab” the granary and the industrial hub Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence and that is a twelve-gauge. To even risk failing at that is negligence.
\nInstead of a whole bunch of countries against Russia, some of which are pro-Russian, the perimeter defense is handled by Ukraine, which absolutely hates Russia \u2013 smuggling routes and subversive activities will be made more difficult.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/lyla_lilas\/status\/1743695235509530864?s=46&t=pPvqLsn_XV98fbtBjqxMiw<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s going absolutely terribly for Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, everyone knows that, I also noted that the lie that UA is weak in Luhansk, which I usually argue against, is disproved by the fact that RU went all in with their offensive there and lost 500 tanks and barbarians in droves. It takes more than a thin picket line to cause those losses and the defense is so disadvantageous that we gave it the risk \u201cit can get messy\u201d in that area.
\nLikely SOF have wreaked quite a bit of havoc this year as well.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/raduhossu\/status\/1744928710396965181?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The debate is hot about what counts as a Wunderwaffen and I still claim that night fighting capability is a Wunderwaffen.
\nIf you can\u2019t see in the dark and fight against someone who can see in the dark, you are completely outplayed and die immediately.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kontakt642\/status\/1742660904024711329?s=46&t=WKNudNzgwruiccyQFjzftQ<\/a><\/p>\n

This is how uneven night fighting is, UA vs RU. When RU surprisingly uses somewhat more modern targeting devices.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1741873336672538956?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w<\/a><\/p>\n

A bit more about excellent night targeting devices.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pion_2s7\/status\/1742634341451079748?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ<\/a><\/p>\n

UA has vehicles and image intensifiers to carry out at least a couple of brigades’ attacks in the dark.
\nThe entire SOF conducts night fighting while the Russians sit in their trenches blinking when their lights run out.
\nYou should open your mouth and cup your hands behind your ears to get maximum hearing at night, probably looks pretty funny in the night vision scope before they get taken out, like little living satellite dishes.<\/p>\n

OT but I\u2019ve never understood that the war continued after 1918 but Poland and Lithuania finished off a Bolshevik army in 1919.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1743755164169720290?s=46&t=mLz0xlpcav10JOdy29EQEw<\/a><\/p>\n

This one says quite a lot about the orange man, he admires Xi Jinping because he is a tough dictator. It will get sweaty if the US takes the step over to the dark side\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rpsagainsttrump\/status\/1743762195106635984?s=46&t=mLz0xlpcav10JOdy29EQEw<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding the Russian tank fleet, according to the Germans their Leo2s are worn out and need maintenance now. Guess how Russian tanks that came to the war in infinitely worse condition and are driven more carelessly are doing \u2013 30% standing with mechanical faults is probably an underestimate but I\u2019ll go with that.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1742207980248953247?s=46&t=Ocy2H3Jfwd83M3nmMVB6UA<\/a><\/p>\n

The accent man believes in a violent UA offensive
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/fcCHtNZOidY?si=RN8fVGl0jEWPSYL3<\/a><\/p>\n

The weather bodes well for a winter offensive.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1742472019692732509?s=46&t=8qScSFx8COK8Q0civfm-JA<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time as the Russian low point arrives.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1742567353391464600?s=46&t=WKNudNzgwruiccyQFjzftQ<\/a><\/p>\n

If the US can now just keep quiet and not sabotage everything all the time and let UA fight as they see best, it should be able to go really well.<\/p>\n

The Russians have the weather against them and their equipment is lousy while most of the offensive reserves are worn out now, there are probably some strategic reserves left but they will never be able to stop anything that is set in motion.
\nThe fact remains that RU has never mobilized, which they said they would do since April 2023, and that means it\u2019s a downhill slope for them.<\/p>\n

Then the biggest idiocy of all, the West must stop setting rules around their weapons that UA cannot strike targets in Russia.
\n1. Let UA fight as they see best.
\n2. Give UA all the equipment they need.
\n3. Let them strike targets in Russia.
\nHow damn hard can this be really, three points and none of the points mean their own dead soldiers or lowered readiness \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If you look at the amount of weapons and influence the US has, it is astronomical compared to everyone else.
\nChina\u2019s fake numbers are probably getting close but they have water in their nuclear weapons instead of whatever it was they were supposed to have.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1743709041145065975?s=46&t=mxvF6czp8VHQAIwuFehh2Q<\/a><\/p>\n

China will not take over the world; they are just boogeyman number two that we are supposed to be scared of all the time.
\nHowever, there is certainly some room for the EU to take ground here now if the USA pulls back?<\/p>\n

Germany has started to emerge as a bigger force in its support for Ukraine, and if one puts on their most positive glasses, maybe the EU could unite on the bigger issues going forward and build a sufficiently large expeditionary force loosely composed of countries’ capabilities to handle the biggest villains?
\nAn EU army controlled by the EU, recruited by the EU, and that can be turned against the citizens is not needed. However, cooperation should increase, funds should be provided to the countries responsible for border protection, and countries should have “expedition brigades” that can reinforce border protection when needed or participate in international peacekeeping missions.<\/p>\n

The defense of the eastern border is probably quite manageable \u2013 Ukraine manages itself together with Poland, and the Baltics receive brigades from the rest of the EU; 2 PB from Sweden would not hurt.
\nFinland runs close cooperation with us, which probably suffices, and NO and DK contribute capabilities that are lacking.<\/p>\n

But the world\u2026
\nChina\u2019s ravages in Africa are quite harmless compared to Russia\u2019s. Russia plunders, desecrates, and murders its way forward while China bribes its way to raw materials and contracts. China is the decent colonizer, and Russia is the Belgians.<\/p>\n

One can always reflect on why groups in the West insist on pushing the issues of the colonial legacy while the continent is simultaneously being recolonized by Russia and China. The conspiracy theorist might wonder if there is a Russian influence operation behind this to engrain in every politician in the West that intervention in Africa is political suicide so Russia can continue its activities undisturbed and ethnically cleanse its way through the continent.<\/p>\n

Africa would benefit from an EU expeditionary force that did what was right now that the UN has collapsed.
\nThe West pooled SOF and took out Wagner earlier, but right now they are in half of Africa, and it seems mostly Ukraine that has troops on the ground
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/reshetz\/status\/1742966844435161112?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ<\/a><\/p>\n

South America and the USA is a sad story where the USA supported right-wing regimes and probably contributed to drug sales taking off to finance rebel movements against left-wing governments. Things are going a bit better now, but the Peruvian I work with formed his worldview during that time.
\nThe EU should absolutely refrain from any intervention in South America.<\/p>\n

MENA is somewhat a shared responsibility, I think.<\/p>\n

Asia still seems to be under US control, but if they let go, there are allies that must be supported, and marine capabilities are required there.
\nThe USA will not implode in our lifetime, everyone except Dengamle, but it wouldn\u2019t hurt if the EU took a bit more responsibility in the world.<\/p>\n

I have quite good insight into certain countries in Africa, and the problem today is not colonization or the EU, it is corrupt citizens in those countries who steal everything. A rich European has made a fortune in business. A rich family in the countries I have stayed in has been able to plunder an entire country for generations and makes Elon look like a McDonald’s employee.
\nIn Angola, the Dos Santos family early on understood that selling slaves to the Portuguese was good business, sometime in the 1500s or thereabouts.<\/p>\n

Then came the revolution, and not many years later they had managed to poison their way to power (a bit exaggerated for effect) and a civil war broke out that ended in the early 2000s.
\nThe Dos Santos clan lost power only a few years ago, and the media says they will be prosecuted down to the last dollar.
\nMeanwhile, the family lives like absolute gods with hundreds of billions in the bank and a larger real estate portfolio than there are buildings in Stockholm.<\/p>\n

The corrupt elite has historically lived in Portugal but in recent years taken a liking to London where they buy luxury apartments as much as they can, all with funds stolen from Angola while the population scrapes by on a few dollars.<\/p>\n

Africa has a future, but if the West could find a way to stamp out corruption for real without an agenda to replace it with themselves, it would go much faster.<\/p>\n

Capital controls are a unique way to make people law-abiding. If they cannot get their cash out to the EU without paying taxes, they will start paying taxes. Then it is important that the taxed funds are not stolen, so yes, there is still a long way to go.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:52 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The West has Ukraine in a stranglehold because they send materiel and money \u2013 Ukraine simply has to accept doing what the West tells them to do. In between, they push the boundaries like the best of teenagers but have recently received many yellow cards from the West, Novorossiysk for example.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has consistently wanted to fight differently but has been forced by NATO into certain warfare, the 2022 Azov push, not going on a winter offensive in 2023, and fighting according to NATO doctrine in 2023. What a different outcome it would have been can only be speculated on. Personally, I feel the 2022 Azov push would have been attractive, and we were in the thread pulling our field arrows down to Azov.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has a wish list to win \u2013 advanced aircraft and more armored vehicles, but they never got that.<\/p>\n

Let Ukraine shoot the West\u2019s missiles at targets in Russia; right on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, there are huge bases with vehicles and materiel lined up that are completely protected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

None of the alternatives are particularly flattering for the West, unfortunately.
\nRussian influence is quite significant, arms manufacturers don\u2019t make money on surplus materiel, weak politicians, arrogant politicians, and so on for quite some time.<\/p>\n

The risk appetite is absolutely enormous here, a pure suicide camp in the West right now, and at least my image of the West has taken some hits these years.<\/p>\n

That said, the West is slowly starting to gather under the flag, which is good, and they could also have done nothing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 The post before Christmas I thought – “gods blessings” and the Heineken bar would draw some 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