{"id":8712,"date":"2024-01-13T09:57:27","date_gmt":"2024-01-13T08:57:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:32:05","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:32:05","slug":"2024-01-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We throw around terms like “marine corps,” “airmobile,” “mechanized,” and all the other units, as well as pros and cons about whether they are capable.
\nIf you were to translate this to Sweden, it would be the coastal rangers fighting at the Dnepr, the paratroopers holding impossible positions throughout the war, and our former armored and mechanized brigades doing the heavy lifting.<\/p>\n

Just that they have scaled it up enormously, the marine corps was 8,000 strong at the start of the spring offensive.
\nThe soldiers have previous combat experience themselves or within the unit since 2014, they have practical work experience since February 2022, and they have been trained by the West.
\nI find it very hard to believe that they are not in the upper quartile of elite soldiers in the world today.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s SOF is a completely different beast; they have been trained by the West since sometime after 2014, not entirely clear to me when it started, and they should absolutely be equivalent to Western SOF, perhaps without all the extra support our special forces have relied on in the war on terror.
\nThis is a war where you absolutely have to solve the task with what you have, and the opponent is qualified. Many old SOF veterans who returned home from the international legion after a few months because personal skill was zero and chance everything.
\nIf one were to guess, Ukrainian soldiers overall are quite good at solving tasks with limited resources \u2013 they are problem solvers, simply put, somewhat like how we in the Swedish Armed Forces see ourselves.<\/p>\n

We all remember the protest march of soldiers on Crimea who were stopped by the green men \u2013 a defense force in absolute decay, but it was deliberate and an organized destruction.
\nSince then, UA has had 8 years to modernize and reshape, and on top of that, they have done quite well during two years of war to sharpen the spear.
\nUkraine today is an enemy that Russia has every reason in the world to worry about, and they do.<\/p>\n

They are also a future ally for the West, for which we should be grateful.<\/p>\n

The fact that the marine corps goes and drowns because they lack life jackets makes me completely tearful; in mid-level officer terms, you are wasting a resource that has taken years to prepare and which in the West would have cost millions in production costs because of a five-hundred-krona life jacket \ud83d\ude2d<\/p>\n

When Putin is dangling at the gas station, the West will be able to hire thousands of instructors from Ukraine who have the practical work experience our instructors lack.
\nThere is no better way to learn how a CV90 works than to make mistakes until it becomes right in a real situation \u2013 you know how not to do it and you know how to do it.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine were to lose the war, the above would become Europe’s new unstoppable mafia, the EU should be very clear about that. One million idle soldiers with work experience who feel betrayed by the West and who are motivated by Russia to get rich in Europe \u2013 the West should not forget this.<\/p>\n

I read yesterday in a thread by some genius poster about a researcher who believed that RU could get UA to burn out their advanced air defense and then strike with their missiles since Western production is low. Then you must have accepted official Russian figures outright. I am of the opinion that RU had 800 missiles of their own manufacture before this campaign and they burned 300 in the first days. In addition, it seems some from NK are added, and Iran and NK plan to send more. The last means to me that RU’s own production is completely insufficient and overall, they have no more than 2-3 major campaigns left.<\/p>\n

Yesterday there was a lot of strategic air up but no reports of strikes, so possibly they ran a dry run to stress UA. But that also tells us they could not conduct real strikes yet, right?<\/p>\n

The experts continue to overestimate Russia, in my opinion; my amateur calculations of barbarians and materiel do not look good at all for RU even though the West has not yet delivered the megalodon-bonk shipment, that war-winning weapons package someone in the thread usually nags about that makes Putin turn sick and accept defeat.<\/p>\n

Now PerraG55 has to jump in on the reasoning below, but from where I sit, it looks like this with the Russian team \u2013 <\/p>\n

Zelensky gave several speeches before Christmas where he was very clear that UA does not accept ceding land and that they will continue with this war.
\nThen Zelensky promised that this year’s missile rain will be met “eye for eye,” and it is a promise they have certainly kept so far.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/yasminalombaert\/status\/1739234982151737854?s=46&t=tEYLY-CYqzzApYaJuDIF0w<\/a><\/p>\n

The UK is first out with some concrete promises and a large weapons package. The Germans always get criticism for their reluctance to send Taurus, but they have enormous weapons packages in the pipeline. Macron never wants to be worse, so wait a few weeks and his “first with tanks” (AMX-10\u2026) will probably come again or something similar, but it’s better than nothing, right?
\nI think it was Cesar who went through the bundles of dollars, and they get quite a lot of cash right now, US support, EU support, and the frozen oligarch money.<\/p>\n

Putin had something possibly fake New Year’s speech and has weakly tried to lift to Xi that they can indeed fight for five more years \u2013 no problemo senhor!
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1737080503793074648?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1740125341686059322?s=46&t=3lTBVqEU-Ly4PFB2mE35Bw<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Ukraine probably didn’t want to be outdone and hacked some big site and ran a fabricated Putin speech where he admitted everything \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1741869259905491053?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w<\/a><\/p>\n

Xi is probably less interested in this continuing for several years because China’s trade is affected by the Houthi blockade as much as everyone else’s, and now that India refuses to buy Russian oil, the cracks in BRIICS are quite clear. BRIICS is good but only when China can exploit world trade with the West to its advantage, export and less import. If they become completely isolated, the West pulls home all manufacturing, and they are left with BRIICS and all unusable currencies, then it becomes a critical situation. Putin sits today like Scrooge McDuck on a mountain of Indian rupees that he can only use for Tata mopeds. This may well be the reason we have not yet seen China play its hand. Then they probably see Russia as a huge raw material colony that is burning all its bridges right now, and that is not exactly negative for China. Russia and China are not good friends.<\/p>\n

Putin places great hope in this winter’s missile rain that is supposed to bring Ukraine down; they have gone in hard with 300 missiles of which +90% have been shot down.
\nHe might be able to live with that perhaps, but his big problem is that Ukraine’s missiles, a dozen at a time, all reach their targets in prioritized areas with a forest of the latest air defenses.
\nOn top of that, it is an insane mess of fires in war-important industry, power outages, and water leaks right now \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t have to be an academic to understand that the liberation fronts and UA have quite a few fingers in this tsunami of technical failures. The infrastructure is from the Soviet era and is probably very easy to knock out with small strategically placed acts of liberation.
\nThis is what a technical failure in St Petersburg looks like, but it could possibly be disgruntled employees due to mobilization.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/golub\/status\/1746053764413362629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is likely a big problem for Putin, the cold will last until the end of March and then it\u2019s the presidential election \ud83d\ude00
\nIn his shining arrogance, Putin has exposed himself quite a bit and Ukraine accepted that challenge.<\/p>\n

Now it seems Ukraine is done with the navy and can switch to other things; in my opinion, they made only one mistake and that was when sea drones targeting the Crimean bridge encountered Admiral Makarov but chose the Crimean bridge \u2013 they should have sunk the Makarov.
\nThis is how much they have sunk anyway without having their own fleet \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukraine_map\/status\/1739777229024846177?s=46&t=6UP5Zbhu0Ixh_CBe3zVPcA<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/erdbeerdampfe\/status\/1739505831329046801?s=46&t=LJuAbcRVa2qYGZDU9QClhg<\/a><\/p>\n

They have started to pick off the strategic bombers deep inside, but if I had to guess, the priority right now is to \u201cturn off the lights in Russia,\u201d as someone in the thread started nagging about last fall; that has more negative consequences for Russia.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is devastated but the country has accepted that they are in an existential war. In Russia, this is supposed to be a special operation and business as usual, but it is not. The election has every chance of becoming a fuse, and Ukraine should therefore consider increasing the intensity of the liberation acts even further.<\/p>\n

Here you have a video of Russian fortifications \u2013 yes, they are starting to look good\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/albafella1\/status\/1745803956821852506?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZ<\/a>
\nOK5gF7w<\/p>\n

However, things are moving a bit everywhere right now; these are tactical local offensives to improve positions and not part of a larger offensive, but it tells us that Ukraine can advance, right?<\/p>\n

The 460,000 soldiers that are in Ukraine according to UA, as usual, we don\u2019t know exactly what is counted but we know it includes infantry, artillery, logistics, and maneuver brigades. We can therefore conclude that the spearhead UA is supposed to break through for a win is significantly smaller than that. It is also likely that the spearhead is in worse shape than the rear since they are constantly exposed to drones, artillery, SOF, and have worse accommodations. Therefore, this number should in no way be taken as evidence that RU is strong in Ukraine. There are poorly defended areas where a Ukrainian offensive will achieve successes. Now UA has learned how to get through mine lines and in the next offensive, they will not make the same mistakes; we can be absolutely sure of that.<\/p>\n

It is somewhat dizzying that Russia still does not defend the northern oblasts but they seem to have built up offensive capacity to move towards Kharkiv at some point. See it as a last draining of their strategic reserves more than anything else.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1737046826082021641?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ<\/a><\/p>\n

If the West were to take the pile of yellow cards, tear it apart, and inform Zelensky that all restrictions on Western weapons are lifted and start sending what is available, it would be absolute chaos \u2013 all air and army bases on the Russian side would be targeted for a week with absolute devastation as a result. At some bases, there are 200 vehicles neatly lined up just waiting for ATACMS.<\/p>\n

When UA struck Novorossiysk, Zelensky got a yellow card from the West, which drives one completely crazy \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

UA has several brigades on the northern front where Russia still feels safe behind the West\u2019s yellow cards and has a few hundred border guards from the FSB \u2013 this is completely incomprehensible behavior from the West!<\/p>\n

I have not yet received instructions to conduct a UA winter offensive so I cannot speculate on it, but that they would wait until Putin has won the election and can order full mobilization seems completely unreasonable to me.<\/p>\n

Zalizhny is a risk-taker and disrupting the election as much as possible is entirely his personality.<\/p>\n

Budanov is, if anything, even more eager for spectacular acts of liberation and he is very pleased with \u201c\u041e\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044f \u0432\u0438\u043c\u043a\u043d\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043b\u0430\u201d (Operation Turn Off the Lights), by the way, it was Dengamle who came up with the name in a quarrel with Budanov because he could no longer get his ration of alcohol when Dnipro became too sensitive, and then Budanov stole it for his winter campaign.<\/p>\n

Since \u201coperation turn off the lights\u201d is rolling out across Russia and the West has not loudly protested so far, hope is beginning to spark that the West may have come to its senses and allows a UA offensive and a bit more creative use of Western weapons, as well as deliveries thereof \u2013 we shall see\u2026<\/p>\n

You surely remember how upset the Belgians got over the FN-FAL carbines used in the raids against Belgorod.
\nUkraine was not allowed to carry out the raids with ethnic Ukrainians so they sent in Russians and then there were probably some Belarusians and Poles involved, but the Belgians still couldn\u2019t keep quiet.<\/p>\n

The soldier\u2019s wives in Russia have at least started to get seriously fed up,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1743606055672705313?s=46&t=mLz0xlpcav10JOdy29EQEw<\/a><\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see how the citizens of Russia receive \u201coperation turn off the lights\u201d because it hits their daily lives very quickly in the form of freezing cold indoors. After all, the citizens are supposed to go vote in March and maybe they will remember their parents who froze to death?<\/p>\n

If Ukraine could show any spectacular victory on the battlefield, the presidential election could become tricky for Putin.
\nIf everyone they know doesn\u2019t vote for Putin and the TV says he got 90% of the votes, maybe the spell will break, who knows.<\/p>\n

Good Lord, how right Nicki Haley is about the Ukraine war, as clear-sighted as the thread almost. Never have primaries been so interesting as this year \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1744697790230393341?s=46&t=q74oqaFA8y8XX5DiU8oPCw<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit like early spring right now, you see the first flowers starting to push up and on a sunny day it gets really warm in the raw cold. There are very many positive signs and it is clear that the Russian flea-bitten bear is seriously on the decline. For my part, I believe the time until the election will be very lively but not in the way Putin has planned. His shining imperial army has completely run out of gas and according to earlier reports, Ukraine has maintained offensive reserves. Sometimes Gregg writes something worth reading.<\/p>\n

I think you can identify several weak points in the Russian defense and if it is true that they are planning offensive operations up near Kharkiv, that is even better but we have not seen that yet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

11:19 \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

So that was why Twitter was quiet and not full of videos of burning houses but no dry runs.<\/p>\n

Now damn it, we have reached a new level \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Open question to that researcher who was certain that Russia would run out of Ukraine\u2019s infantry supplies and then missile bomb Ukraine away \u2013 has he taken this new electronic warfare weapon into account or not?<\/p>\n

Asking for a friend and it would be unfortunate if he drew far-reaching conclusions and went public with them on the wrong basis, my friend thought.<\/p>\n

If you jam 20 robots with EW, you have something that works \u2013 woohooooo \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23 somersaults on the kids’ trampoline right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Operation turn off the lights is underway
\nExceeding expectations, rolling power outages throughout the Moscow region<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1746287951229993382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Incoming from Ilja and gas is plummeting in RU<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1746276780124881325?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The lights are off in Rostov na Don<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1746254081960583406?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Peskov feels compelled to comment on operation turn off the lights<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1746184979086803105?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

\u201dThere is no reason to take any special measures, everything is going according to plan..\u201d \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Second after the blogger I see now, everything is as it should be \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 We throw around terms like “marine corps,” “airmobile,” “mechanized,” and all the other units, as well 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