{"id":8730,"date":"2024-01-19T10:51:13","date_gmt":"2024-01-19T09:51:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-19-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:36:15","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:36:15","slug":"2024-01-19-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-19-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We have now actually seen Germany, the UK, and France all promise Ukraine a win and significantly increased support \u2013 that is a big positive. Macron naturally doesn\u2019t want to be overtaken, but one must admit that 78 newly manufactured Caesar guns is quite substantial, even if they want to be paid for them.<\/p>\n

If you remember Meiden 3 (the large, very expensive Russian influence operation) last autumn that made the rounds, there was “battle fatigue” in the West to the extent that the West would force Ukraine into a negotiated peace.<\/p>\n

The reality was different, but there are still too many who jump on or believe that there can\u2019t be smoke without fire \u2013 there must be some truth behind it. There wasn\u2019t, at least not for France, the UK, and Germany.<\/p>\n

Bashkortostan should probably not be underestimated either, as there are demonstrations against the war and against the central government, and Rosgvardia fled \u2013 somewhat like popular revolutions used to start in the good old days.<\/p>\n

Now, as usual, I am the only one who believes in Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, getting used to it, but I think the worst Russian panic has started to ease?
\nThere is not much concern about Russian offensives and there is no concern at all about the rocket barrage in Western media right now, it feels like, and yet Putin has really gone all out with this year\u2019s rocket barrage and the number of fallen barbarians and destroyed hardware has been an all-time high.<\/p>\n

It is simply difficult for Putin to create clicks anymore; his YouTube popularity is fading.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian trench group that is furthest forward and right in the way of Russian attacks does not yet benefit from any of this, so the single most important currency in this whole war is to give all Ukrainians hope and to give all Russians hopelessness \u2013 that is what wins the war.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has received a lot recently and the Ukrainian trench group knows this \u2013 future EU membership, support from Europe\u2019s great powers, money, and increasingly clear distancing from the West towards Russia. Has anyone heard proposals about territorial concessions from the West for a very long time?<\/p>\n

China throws Russia under the bus from time to time, but they continue to supply ammunition, bearings, and drone parts as well. However, it was very significant information that China tried to mediate between Pakistan and Iran; that speaks volumes about the cards we have yet to see.<\/p>\n

If you remember the big NATO meeting where many representatives thought Ukraine was ungrateful and should keep quiet \u2013 even the PR staffs have started to behave, and what has been communicated from Germany, the UK, and France in recent weeks has been the same language and insanely well formulated, Lex Bruce Wallace maybe, they want to keep their jobs?<\/p>\n

Like me, you have probably also noticed that the West is completely silent about all the liberation acts in Russia, unlike when UA entered Belgorod in 2023 and the entire West played a unanimous red card.<\/p>\n

We will see what yellow cards the attack on the oil terminal in St. Petersburg draws, but if the West is silent, that is tacit acceptance, or so we have learned when it comes to violent crimes.<\/p>\n

Not to forget EW against the two dozen Russian rockets that fell like autumn leaves from the sky, general EW against Russian drones, and that UA has made its own drone fleet EW resistant \u2013 2024 meets Tannenberg.<\/p>\n

Putin has many reasons to lie awake right now and he is unlikely to sleep well.<\/p>\n

Then, of course, for the West, if you want peace, you must prepare for war, so even if there is no great concern, the West\u2019s arms factories should still be running hot.<\/p>\n

I would like to see more contracts for Swedish weapons \u2013 can we not start the modification program for the 122 on the old Leo1 or this next (new) modification that is starting up on more vehicles than we need ourselves, buy up lots of Leo1s that we modify and then sell them at a high price?
\nThe vehicle has apparently proven to be top of the league, the McLaren F1 of tanks.<\/p>\n

What we knew about Archer, that they have extremely good accuracy with “dumb” artillery ammunition, is now confirmed by Ukraine?
\nThat makes Archer a one-shot-one-hit platform for dumb artillery ammunition in times of ammunition shortage. Sweden simply must scale up production of Archer because there is potential for big contracts.<\/p>\n

Then the geniuses in the Swedish arms industry have figured out a way to fire GRG indoors, a water casing simply that absorbs the backblast \u2013 should become an absolute bestseller now that covered bunkers are back.<\/p>\n

Now we have had our PR and it is time to get the contracts that secure Swedish industrial jobs for the next 15 years. Whatever we do, do not listen to those in the media who want disarmament and say it is blood money to rearm NATO and EU; shell protection has the highest priority here and we should participate in solidarity.<\/p>\n

One wonders if the Russian rocket stockpile is slowly running out \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1748086101116338432?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is how operation “turn off the lights” begins, small drones into the power stations causing blackouts and then the cascade effects with burst pipes and frozen Russians. The liberation acts in this absolute mess they are in are just a fraction, the rest is handled by ancient infrastructure and mobilized technicians who sit in a hole in Ukraine completely on their own together with the cold.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1748054767924867411?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Not entirely unexpected, but now H\u2026 has murdered about twenty hostages, at least. One can guess how their time was since the kidnapping before they were murdered \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/israelwarroom\/status\/1748094222392312235?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I never thought Iran would act as they have in a situation where China is not all-in, and above all, my money was on a sinking ship in the Strait of Hormuz to stop oil transports.
\nI don\u2019t quite know what to make of this with them attacking Pakistan?
\nNoteworthy that India supported Iran and that China tried to mediate.
\nI don\u2019t think Pakistan is on the candidate list to join BRIICS, those 40 countries rumored about?
\nIran has supported Pakistan in previous conflicts, so I find it very difficult to figure this out; it feels like Iran has gone off script completely and got a feeling?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joyce_karam\/status\/1747726011255451955?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I liked this one because it makes all the Russian colonized areas look like independent countries, which we are probably heading towards at a rapid pace.
\nGeopolitical atomic bomb is usually something someone in the thread talks about from time to time.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/saintjavelin\/status\/1747579136736985579?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

T90 \u2013 Bradley duel has been written about extensively, but just for my own archive, the Bradley drove in front of the T90 which apparently missed its shot(s), and then it is quite clear that there is full panic in the vehicle \u2013 forward, stop, and then straight backward, so they probably tried to find cover from the firestorm?
\nThis is something we often discuss regarding reverse Darwinism and that the Russians are very short on key personnel, and now we got to see an example of that.<\/p>\n

The crew is still struggling with the vehicle itself and is therefore not a threat, and the crew in the Bradley is at a significantly higher level where they can handle fire, movement, and protection (even though driving straight in front of the vehicle like on a shooting range might not have been very impressive) and they take out the T90M.
\nThis is how it looks, and it is also why Russia cannot manage to break through the bridgehead at the Dnepr, retake Klischiivka, or succeed with offensives in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Numerical strength and weapons look intimidating but their effect is very small because training is low and motivation is terrible; quantity is simply not a quality in itself, especially when you don\u2019t have the quantity on your side either.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/challengerinua\/status\/1747742516089413801?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Kind seems to have something sneaky going on in space, probably an evil plan.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/aviation_intel\/status\/1737171213901009333?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Fun with Bluesky, I\u2019ll follow back as soon as I can and this could be really fun, it feels like that light blue elevator with calming music someone in the thread usually talks about. Some are already up and posting fast like weasels with new technology.
\nHowever, I haven\u2019t received a single code yet, I feel quite closely monitored but it\u2019s great that so many share in the thread. Did Erik14 get any yet?
\nThen Dengamle shouldn\u2019t wait too long until all the codes are gone \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

So now Ukraine has targeted the oil industry, we have heard about several attacks in recent days, and with drones flying over 1000 km in some cases.<\/p>\n

Oil has previously been a red line from the West and I hear nothing, which I, and surely Ukraine as well, interpret as free rein.<\/p>\n

The war industry is under heavy pressure, half of all regions have more or less acute technical faults with electricity and heating, attacks on the railway network are intense and now they have started the war against oil (Ukraine is environmentally friendly too, extra plus).<\/p>\n

The war has now come to Russia and I find it difficult to translate how big the impact is. My guess is that the average Ivan will react strongly when it affects him personally, which it does now.<\/p>\n

Then there are probably dozens of oblasts, republics, and others who have long wanted to be decolonized and all have seen how Ukraine has survived and emerged stronger from two years of war.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine calls and offers its support to start the liberation, there are strong reasons to march against the oppressive regime in the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

2024 will not be the least bit fun for Putin \u2013 right now the amount of exploding, burning, or non-functioning infrastructure in Russia is enormous and the protests in Bashkortostan are something new we haven\u2019t seen before.
\nAlready in 2023, Budanov explained to us how this would go for those paying attention, so what we see now is really just him delivering according to plan.<\/p>\n

The likelihood that the protests in Bashkortostan will spread to 5-6 other regions is sky-high (because that is what Ukraine is actively driving) and at some point Rosgvardia will not be enough \u2013 game over.<\/p>\n

I maintain that Ukraine\u2019s advantage in artillery, EW, and maneuver brigades (if they get them) at the Dnepr is large.
\nAt the southern front, they probably need to add units for offensive operations.
\nDon\u2019t forget that a breakthrough at one of the attack vectors at the southern front is enough for it to collapse like a house of cards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

We have actually now seen Germany, the UK, and France all promise Ukraine a win and significantly increased support \u2013 that is a big positive. Macron naturally doesn\u2019t want to be overtaken but you have to admit that 78 newly manufactured Cesars is quite a lot, even if they want to be paid for them.<\/p>\n

If you remember Meiden 3 (the big Russian extremely expensive influence operation) last autumn that made the rounds, it was “battle fatigue” in the West to such an extent that the West would force Ukraine into a negotiated peace.<\/p>\n

The reality was different but there are still far too many who latch on or believe that there can\u2019t be smoke without fire \u2013 there must be some truth behind it. There wasn\u2019t for France, the UK, and Germany at least.<\/p>\n

Bashkortostan should probably not be underestimated either because these are demonstrations against the war and against the central government, and Rosgvardia fled \u2013 a bit like how popular revolutions used to start in the good old days.<\/p>\n

Now, as usual, I\u2019m the only one who believes in Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, getting used to it, but I think the worst Russian panic has started to ease?
\nThere is not much concern about Russian offensives and there is no concern at all about the missile rain in Western media right now it feels like, and yet Putin has really gone all out with this year\u2019s missile rain and the number of fallen barbarians and destroyed hardware has been all-time high.<\/p>\n

It is simply difficult for Putin to create clicks anymore, his YouTube popularity is fading.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian trench group that is furthest forward and right in the way of Russian attacks is not yet benefiting from any of this, so the single most important currency in this whole war is to give all Ukrainians hope and to give all Russians hopelessness \u2013 that is what wins the war.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has received a lot recently and the Ukrainian trench group knows this \u2013 future EU membership, support from Europe\u2019s great powers, money, and increasingly clear distancing from the West towards Russia. Has anyone heard proposals about territorial concessions from the West in a long time?<\/p>\n

China throws Russia under the bus from time to time but they continue to supply ammunition, bearings, and drone parts as well. However, it was very significant information that China tried to mediate between Pakistan and Iran, that says oceans about the cards we have yet to see.<\/p>\n

If you remember the big NATO meeting where many representatives thought Ukraine was ungrateful and should keep quiet \u2013 even the PR staffs have started to behave and what has been communicated from Germany, the UK, and France in recent weeks has been the same language and insanely well formulated, Lex Bruce Wallace maybe, they want to keep their jobs?<\/p>\n

You have probably, like me, also noticed that the West is completely silent about all the liberation actions in Russia, unlike when Ukraine entered Belgorod in 2023 and the whole West ran a unanimous red card.<\/p>\n

We will see what yellow cards the attack on the oil terminal in St Petersburg draws, but if the West is silent, it is tacit consent, or how we have learned when it comes to violent crimes.<\/p>\n

Not to forget EW against the two dozen Russian missiles that fell like autumn leaves from the sky, general EW against Russian drones, and that UA has made its own drone fleet EW resistant \u2013 2024 meets Tannenberg.<\/p>\n

Putin has many reasons to lie awake right now and he is unlikely to sleep well.<\/p>\n

Then of course, for the West, if you want peace you must prepare for war, so even if there is no great concern, the West\u2019s arms factories should still be running hot.<\/p>\n

Would love to see more contracts for Swedish weapons \u2013 can’t we start the mod program for the 122 on the old Leo1 or this next (new) modification that is being initiated on more vehicles than we need ourselves, buy up a bunch of Leo1s that we modify and then sell them at a sky-high price?
\nThe vehicle has apparently proven to be top of the league, the McLaren F1 of tanks.<\/p>\n

What we knew about the Archer, that they have an extremely good hit pattern with “dumb” artillery ammunition, is now confirmed by Ukraine?
\nThat makes the Archer a one-shot-one-hit platform for dumb artillery ammunition in times of ammo shortage. Sweden simply must scale up production of the Archer because there is potential for major contracts there.<\/p>\n

Then the geniuses in the Swedish weapons industry have figured out a way to fire GRG indoors, a water casing simply that absorbs the backblast \u2013 should become an absolute bestseller now that covered shelters are back.<\/p>\n

Now we have gotten our PR and it is time to get the contracts that secure Swedish industrial jobs for the next 15 years. Whatever we do, do not listen to those in the media who want disarmament and say it’s blood money to rearm NATO and EU; shell protection has the highest priority here and we shall participate in solidarity.<\/p>\n

One wonders if the Russian missile stockpile is starting to run low \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1748086101116338432?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is how the operation to “turn off the lights” begins, small drones into power stations causing blackouts and then the cascading effects with burst pipes and frozen Russians. The actual liberation acts in this absolute mess they are in are a fraction; the rest is handled by ancient infrastructure and mobilized technicians who sit in a hole in Ukraine completely on their own together with the cold.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1748054767924867411?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Not entirely unexpected but now H\u2026 has killed about twenty hostages, at least. One can guess how their time was since the kidnapping before they were murdered \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

I never thought Iran would act as they have in a situation where China is not all-in and especially my money was on a sunk ship in the Strait of Hormuz to stop oil transports.
\nI don’t quite know what to make of this with them attacking Pakistan?
\nNoteworthy that India supported Iran and that China tried to mediate.
\nI don’t think Pakistan is on the candidate list to join BRIICS, those 40 countries rumored about?
\nIran has supported Pakistan in previous conflicts so I find it very hard to sort this out, feels like Iran has gone off script completely and got a feeling?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joyce_karam\/status\/1747726011255451955?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I liked this one because it makes all the Russian-colonized areas look like their own countries, which we are likely heading towards at a rapid pace.
\nGeopolitical atomic bomb is something someone in the thread usually talks about from time to time.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/saintjavelin\/status\/1747579136736985579?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

T90 \u2013 Bradley one-on-one has been written about extensively but just for my own archive, the Bradley was in front of the T90 which apparently missed its shot(s) and then it is quite clear there is full panic in the vehicle \u2013 forward, stop and then straight backward so they probably tried to find cover from the firestorm?
\nThis is something we often discuss regarding reverse Darwinism and that the Russians are critically short on key personnel and now we saw an example of that.<\/p>\n

The crew is still struggling with the vehicle itself and is thus not a threat, and the crew in the Bradley is at a significantly higher level where they manage fire, movement, and protection (even though driving right in front of the vehicle like on a shooting range maybe didn’t impress directly) and takes out the T90M.
\nThis is how it looks, and it is also why RU cannot manage to break the bridgehead at the Dnieper, not retake Klischiivka, or succeed with offensives in northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Numbers and weapons look scary but their effect is very small because training is low and motivation terrible, quantity is simply not quality in itself and especially not when you don’t have the quantity on your side either.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/challengerinua\/status\/1747742516089413801?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Kind seems to have something sneaky going on in space, probably an evil plan.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/aviation_intel\/status\/1737171213901009333?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Fun with Bluesky, I follow back as soon as I can and this could really be fun, feels like that light blue elevator with soothing music someone in the thread usually talks about. Some are already up and posting fast as ferrets with new technology.
\nHowever, I haven’t received a single code yet, feel quite closely monitored but great that so many share in the thread. Did Erik14 get one yet?
\nThen Dengamle shouldn’t wait too long until all the codes are gone \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now Ukraine has attacked the oil industry, we have heard about several attacks in recent days, and with drones flying +1000km in some cases.<\/p>\n

Oil has previously been a red card from the West and I hear nothing which I, and surely Ukraine too, interpret as free rein.<\/p>\n

The war industry is hard-pressed, half of all regions have more or less acute technical faults with electricity and heating, attacks on the rail network are intense and now they started the war against oil (Ukraine is environmentally friendly too, extra plus).<\/p>\n

The war has now come to Russia and I find it hard to translate how big the impact is. My guess is that average Ivan will react strongly when it affects him personally, which it does now.<\/p>\n

Then there are probably dozens of oblasts, republics and others who have long wanted to be decolonized and all have seen how Ukraine has survived and come out stronger after two years of war.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine calls and gives its support to start the liberation, there are strong reasons to march against the oppressive regime in the Kremlin.<\/p>\n

2024 will not be the least bit fun for Putin \u2013 right now the amount of exploding, burning or non-functioning infrastructure in Russia is enormous and the protests in Bashkortostan are something new we haven’t seen before.
\nAlready in 2023 Budanov explained to us how this would go for those paying attention so what we see now is really just him delivering according to the program.<\/p>\n

The likelihood that the protests in Bashkortostan will spread to 5-6 other areas is sky-high (because that is what Ukraine actively drives) and at some point Rosgvardia won’t be enough \u2013 game over.<\/p>\n

I maintain that Ukraine’s advantage in artillery, EW and maneuver brigades (if they get them) at the Dnieper is large.
\nAt the southern front they probably need to add units for offensive operations.
\nDon’t forget that a breakthrough on one of the attack vectors at the southern front is enough for it to collapse like a house of cards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I did not find the forbidden word, it was in a link \u2013 no need to post the entry in the freeze, can be removed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks!<\/p>\n

Putin has now completely run out of his caviar and is down to his last tubes of Kalles caviar. He has had the FSB thoroughly search all IKEA stores but they find nothing more.
\nHis bodyguards are wondering what he will do when he has comfort-sucked all the Kalles. Will he start sucking his thumb or turn to alcohol, krokodil, or something else? The betting is in full swing!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, that’s right, he was shuffling around in his socks in the bunker in Altai and sucking on the caviar spoon, my friend.
\nWas also worried about the bodyguards and took big detours around them.<\/p>\n

Krokodil \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:09 \u2013 Johan No.1 We have now actually seen Germany, the UK, and France all promise Ukraine a win and 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