{"id":8732,"date":"2024-01-20T10:31:06","date_gmt":"2024-01-20T09:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:36:45","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:36:45","slug":"2024-01-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yep, operation Sigge Siggsvin became very violent and successful \u2013 kicked off last night despite “some people’s” doubts about its legitimacy and misinterpreted it as me being out at the Friday pub, but it was actually a code word.<\/p>\n

Then I was going to try once and for all to shut R\u00f6pcke up but of course I was wrong and it turned into a walk of shame.
\nMy point, which he then managed to avoid, was that he has cried wolf dozens of times regarding Avdiivka since early autumn and now it’s the end of January.<\/p>\n

It was months ago about the industrial area south of Avdiivka that he posted a photo of when the Ukrainian trench group ran like mad along the ditches to escape and took it as proof that Avdiivka would fall \u2013 the area became a death trap for the Russians but since they had been sloppy checking the map I missed that they conquered the area by burying the defense in a big pile of bodies until they had to withdraw because they only saw the pile of dead bodies.<\/p>\n

If you sit in the doubters’ booth, either mentally or paid, this becomes a self-playing piano and now he is pushing hard that RU has gained a foothold in that southern settlement (near the industrial area) and extrapolates that to Ukraine being on the verge of losing the war (some exaggeration on my part).<\/p>\n

The next looming big threat is the Russians’ huge summer offensive that is supposed to take Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts \u2013 have we heard that before?
\nHow much land did the Russians manage to capture in all of 2023?<\/p>\n

In a topsy-turvy world, there is one more \u2013 we are supposed to be scared that the Russians can take heavy losses.<\/p>\n

Yes, it was a mistake many made to think that RU would throw in the towel after absolutely insane losses but they did not. Putin is as cunning as an Arctic fox and mobilized the unwanted children first.<\/p>\n

However, he has made some mistakes \u2013 giving the 3rd AC all the latest hardware was a big one, where the stocks were emptied considerably.<\/p>\n

The mistake everyone is making now is to assume that RU can absorb these losses in manpower and materiel forever.
\nLooking at the hardware, the production figures speak for themselves, don’t they?<\/p>\n

There is also a reason why we see T54-55 and BT-50 knocked out in combat and it is not because the Russian arms industry is newly producing thousands of T90Ms.<\/p>\n

Then we have that source from UA to the BBC that the blogger mentioned yesterday, that most of the EW and LV systems Russia has are in Ukraine. We have fairly reliable information that they emptied Kaliningrad of LV a while ago.
\nDo you think Russia is doing well in the war when all their LV and advanced radar and EW systems are in Ukraine and not enough there?<\/p>\n

If they produced a few hundred tanks in 2023, we can probably guess how it looks with radar systems and LV platforms \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

See this as a chicken race where Putin tried to bribe the referees and failed.<\/p>\n

If you remember, we wrote last summer that Putin’s only card left to play (this was before the escalation that I then began to believe would not happen and then came October 7 exactly according to Pearson’s book) was to get the West to both stop giving Ukraine support and also force UA to a negotiated solution \u2013 to cheat his way to a win in a huge, insanely expensive influence operation where the last paid pro-Russians exposed themselves and ended up on Western intelligence lists.<\/p>\n

The autumn offensive was an attempt to project strength when they were weak and this year’s rocket rain was the same thing.<\/p>\n

Do you think it succeeded?<\/p>\n

The rocket rain is taken down with EW, all offensives have stalled, and in Russia the lights are out.<\/p>\n

Putin’s last card that he has now played has been exposed.<\/p>\n

It is not Ukraine that has T54-55 and BT-50 at the fronts, right?<\/p>\n

It is also not in Ukraine where the lights are going out right now and citizens are freezing at -30 degrees, in Kiev they have it warm and bright (painted for effect!!) unlike in half of the regions in Russia (to varying degrees!).<\/p>\n

It is grateful that the UK, Germany, and France have now talked and show a united front because that was really needed now that US foreign policy has completely collapsed. We will soon understand that we do not need the USA to handle the task and there is some chance that the EU will emerge as a bigger player in the future if the USA continues to back away into the shadows.<\/p>\n

Stopping FAB500 and FAB1500 at the Dnieper has been important because it is the only indirect weapon that has worked effectively against UA in the area after they took out the artillery, got their EW screen in place, and knocked out ahkp.<\/p>\n

The Marine Corps has rotated battalion after battalion but held the area and RU has thrown a number of brigades against them and failed miserably.<\/p>\n

The reason is simple \u2013 the Davydiv Brid effect, what worked then works even better now with drone weapons and better artillery.<\/p>\n

On the unit maps, it is the same old RU brigades that we have read time and again have taken heavy hits, retreated, or refused to fight. No strategic reserves have been added.<\/p>\n

This is simply an unsolvable problem for the Russians, they must break through the bridgehead but as soon as they go up and band on the highway, UA drones, indirect fire, army aviation, and aircraft are there and decimate them to zero.<\/p>\n

It is like a shooting range enabled as long as the Marine Corps can hold the bridgehead and RU losses are astronomical. So this is not a failed attempt to cross the Dnieper we see, it is actually exactly according to the big campaign plan if you managed to read it. I thought, however, that they would land further north but Krynky is good.<\/p>\n

Perpetua’s 1:5 ratio is now standard.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1742033387383115949?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do not underestimate the number of sabotage acts in Russia either. I think I have read about 5-6 sabotage acts against oil facilities, tanks, or otherwise oil-related in the past week. It is not hard to figure out that Ukraine is currently targeting the oil industry precisely, right.<\/p>\n

The sabotage acts against the rail network continue unabated which essentially makes the darkest Donbass an isolated island in the long run.<\/p>\n

That half of all RU regions have more or less acute problems with electricity supply and heating are huge numbers.<\/p>\n

That Putin will go all in is pretty clear, we have reasoned a lot about that in the thread and have landed in some form of consensus. I long thought he would only be able to declare a smashing victory and that to save the children they would withdraw to the 1991 borders when denazification was completed but I have understood that it does not work that way in Russia.<\/p>\n

But that the siloviki would be willing to risk popular revolution because of the Ukraine war, I do not believe that. There is one thing that keeps a silovik sleepless at night and that is popular uprising because no money in the world can protect them against that. All risks suddenly become unknown and anything can happen.<\/p>\n

They are quite okay with internal rotations where the old get to spend their money in peace and the new hungry ones get their time at the pots, but having the entire criminal clan hunted through the streets at once by enormous lynch mobs is not desirable if you are a silovik.<\/p>\n

They were terrified of what happened in Belarus but managed to suppress it with Russian internal troops, and now the Ukraine problem was supposed to be solved once and for all, but things are going worse than the worst nightmare right now.<\/p>\n

They are also watching the developments in Bashkortostan with horror and pray to their idols every night with blood sacrifices that it is an isolated protest.<\/p>\n

Ukraine took the war to Russia and they are completely unable to defend themselves.<\/p>\n

I long believed the army would refuse to fight, but at some point we began to understand how strict the control over the Russian soldiers is. We have seen a bunch of videos of when UA retakes defense systems and in a bunker there hangs a dead tortured soldier upside down by the feet, and then we have seen videos of the barrier battalions. The oppression is harsher than the will to live obviously, which leads to suicide as the solution to the problem or suicide-by-Ukrainian-soldier.<\/p>\n

There are rumors that the VDV joined the Wagner coup but backed out at the last second, true or false I do not know.<\/p>\n

I know this is Chuck but also a hen\u2026 Retired Russian officers who speak out and say that many more want to see Putin dangling. You get years in prison for this kind of thing so the threshold to go public with these statements is sky-high but likely they have also anchored it in broad layers so they know they are not alone.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chuckpfarrer\/status\/1748510535258140896?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

On the topic of ammunition, Bulgaria\u2019s production should not be underestimated, the forges are glowing hot and most of it is sold to Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1746199753493246112?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Below is already reported in the thread so nothing new but trying to slap on a transparent conclusion that is incredible.
\nBesides the EW shootdown of the missiles, the Patriot, or another system, has shot down the Killjoy missile which was supposed to be impossible to shoot down.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/iendure_4evr\/status\/1737285002503635239?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ<\/a><\/p>\n

At the same time, we learned that Patriot has now been updated with targeting data from the war and is becoming even more effective.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/cyberdefensecom\/status\/1742377516398965099?s=46&t=8qScSFx8COK8Q0civfm-JA<\/a><\/p>\n

It should not be underestimated from the thread that RU gets +90% of their missiles shot down, even those missiles they thought were indestructible, and that Ukraine has just shown they have EW capability to take down a large number of missiles per attack.
\nThat the Brits just showed their new laser weapon might also be part of this?<\/p>\n

It may not be a Hiroshima moment yet but even a Russian colonel general understands that their own missiles are shot down but they fail to shoot down the West\u2019s missiles in prioritized areas with a forest of air defenses.
\nThis is absolutely enormous because the Russians have no other carriers for their nuclear weapons and know that in a nuclear war they would get their own missiles shot down but would not be able to shoot down the West\u2019s.<\/p>\n

And we can be sure that China is also wondering if their missiles can be shot down or jammed with EW and if they really want to find out the hard way.<\/p>\n

The hot air will continue for a while longer but this is roughly the thinking on the Russian side (presumably).<\/p>\n

The campaign against Russian EW, radar and other key systems has been enormous and it has been suggested that all Zooparks have been knocked out for example, which is RU counter battery fire radar.<\/p>\n

A guess I had with the downed Mainstay was that they are starting to get poor radar coverage from the ground and have to fly it closer?
\nI don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

Regarding counter battery fire, I am of the opinion that Ukraine has won and that the Russians can indeed fire artillery at fixed targets but then they are hunted.<\/p>\n

UA has also repeatedly stated that their drone fleet is immune to EW.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1740388432546075030?s=46&t=GK49BsHmBA51-SyLEhupFQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Ending with the Lions.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1737183759168831858?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Or actually ending with this one, it has been up in the thread but for those who haven\u2019t seen it \u2013 watch it.
\nFirst of all, the Bradley took out a T90M, the driver was a driver in the logistics before and the gunner from the infantry who then got Bradley service and trained in Germany.
\nThe gunner thought his previous video gaming contributed to the accuracy \ud83d\ude00
\nWhen the vehicles come back from missions there is a tolo by the roadside that also performs repairs, or maybe it\u2019s just repairs, so they are serviced directly after each mission it seems in some kind of front-line assembly line principle. I don\u2019t know if Sweden has this, tolo and that we ourselves did maintenance on the vehicles I remember but then it was also a peacetime organization.
\nThat Ukraine has too few vehicles is obvious.
\nWhat is also obvious is that no one was the least bit afraid of Russian drones at the tolo and it was near Avdiivka when the vehicles rolled back from the mission so quite front-line.
\nIn the actual combat video there were also no drones exposing the Bradley but UA had at least one reconnaissance drone up and I have the impression that an FPV drone has hit a T90 before?
\nThere is some kind of thought in the thread that no one can move at all because the drone weapon lies like a wet blanket over everything \u2013 but that is not the case at the hotspot Avdiivka at least.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1748480083990372669?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d <\/p>\n

The ass is actually right. The Russians can take enormous losses, we know that. But it only goes until it can\u2019t anymore.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

His name is R\u00f6pcke after all..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Otherwise a good name for him I think.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yep, operation Sigge Siggsvin became very violent and successful \u2013 kicked off last night despite “some 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