{"id":8740,"date":"2024-01-23T08:09:48","date_gmt":"2024-01-23T07:09:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:38:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:38:29","slug":"2024-01-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Under 50 robots in the attack.<\/p>\n

Was anything taken with EW?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1749703983625581030?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

There are some things that are not politically correct until they are. When I started working in Africa, it was post-decolonization and at a time when the freedom fighters who were often now in leading positions in the countries still lived well on their good reputation.<\/p>\n

\u201dRich\u201d families in the West are probably people who started companies that have gone wildly well and managed to run them for generations. \u201dOld money\u201d is not magnitudes richer than these and flies completely under the radar in Sweden.
\nIn countries in Africa, there are families who have plundered the entire country of most things for hundreds of years and who have managed to navigate times of unrest, they have made it a national sport not to be seen and are gray eminences who probably make Sweden’s richest look like cheap McDonald’s employees.
\nI have previously mentioned the Dos Santos family who started their career by selling slaves to the Portuguese and then traded in blood until they were deposed a few years ago.<\/p>\n

Post-colonialism has been an absolute tragedy for Angola (but rewinding is obviously not an option!) and what prevents the country from flourishing are corrupt leaders within the country who steal absolutely everything.
\nThe decolonization halo is slowly starting to fall but no one in the West will tackle this corruption within a reasonable time so it will continue. Imposing some requirements on money transactions would immediately hit these groups hard because they like to live well in the West.<\/p>\n

I understand more and more that Russia has been treated the same way.
\nThe Soviet Union was the arch-enemy that then collapsed and suddenly, and immediately, opened the banks and all the old KGB veterans who took power were welcomed into the boardrooms as PerraG55 wrote yesterday \u2013 but why?<\/p>\n

My interpretation of why the arch-villains in Africa survive is that the West wants their money so reasonably it was the same here \u2013 Russia’s money was fun. Bribes and good for general business?
\nWe have a rather misleading self-image of our democracies in certain areas.<\/p>\n

Now let’s see if I manage not to navigate wrongly here and it becomes a gauntlet \ud83d\ude00
\nCountries come and go even in modern times and we are in a situation where Ukraine can absolutely collapse.
\nIn the 70s there were major upheavals in southern Africa and I know Angola’s liberation struggle quite well when the military junta took over in Portugal and withdrew all support for the colonies. It was panic and 400,000 Angola-Portuguese fled to the airport and it went so-so.<\/p>\n

In 1979 Rhodesia fell and 250,000 citizens in the country that then became Zimbabwe have almost completely left in waves and in 1989 the apartheid regime in South Africa fell.
\nNot relevant but it might be fun to know that Portugal seems to have found a balance with its former colonies and is established in all the countries on the same terms as everyone else now \u2013 10 million residing in Portugal and 10 million residing in the former colonies.<\/p>\n

These are three examples of when a minority rule has fallen in modern times \u2013 I do not evaluate this at all, the above is facts.
\nUkraine’s situation is quite similar, they are a minority rule in the Russian SPHERE and have roughly the same ratio as South Africa between UA and Russia approximately. Yes, they are a country but Russia does not see them as a country so it is applicable.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine does not get support from the West and Russia continues to get support from Iran, NK and China, it is likely that RU over time in a low-intensity war can topple Ukraine as they then have the numbers and the polar countries’ industry behind them \u2013 this is the low-intensity war over many years that Putin desperately tries to get approved because he knows he will win it.<\/p>\n

The West has demonstrably abandoned allies before and Russia has worked very hard with the old influence operation to alienate Ukraine from the West by portraying them as Nazis.<\/p>\n

It succeeded beyond expectations in Africa for the simple reason that it was true because colonization was no beautiful story at all, there is a museum in Luanda with old black and white photographs where Portuguese paratroopers stand laughing and holding up severed heads.<\/p>\n

But it has failed with Ukraine so far because Ukraine has received much-needed PR help from the West.<\/p>\n

The only thing I wanted to show with this, besides a bit of history about Africa, is that the West is walking a very tightrope in the case of Ukraine and the risk that they have overestimated the country’s ability should get the highest score and the color red in the risk analysis.<\/p>\n

Another fun detail in the case of Angola is that most of the aid funds went to the privileged elite so the hard-working Swede has probably all these years mostly supported the already very rich extravagant lifestyle in the country through our aid (I can give many examples). We as a family have always all these years sent our support directly to needy families so we know what it goes to, some years significant sums when there has been something urgent often hospital stays and then the adoptions were not exactly cheap.<\/p>\n

Sorry OT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sorry OT \u2013 here is a mangled Russian in a pit.<\/p>\n

The lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1749176113157333411?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

MXT’s daily obituary suggests that RU has started offensive operations and we have been informed that they have it in Avdiivka and northern Luhansk as well as smaller movements in other places.
\nCould the difference between the Megalodon-bonk and what we have had for a week be that RU is losing in somewhat larger offensive operations?<\/p>\n

And the underlying loss be largely caused by drone weapons, artillery and snipers?<\/p>\n

RU takes the highest losses from UA artillery and number two is the snipers, for hard vehicles one would guess the drone weapon?
\nHere is a GUR group assisting the 21st to advance on a night shift.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1749599958494572571?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I personally believe that Ukraine’s “the digital battlefield” and “Uber for artillery” (which also includes drones) as well as an absolutely enormous production of drones is starting to make a difference.<\/p>\n

We have from quite reliable sources that the Russians have the equivalent but that it simply does not work for them they cannot manage it and they continue with written orders and clock times for the artillery as in Tannenberg.<\/p>\n

The low points in 2022 and probably also 2023 were significantly lower losses than what we see now so something is driving them up.<\/p>\n

Russian descriptions from the Dnipro front claim that they are like hunted game among swarms of drones and certainly Russia also has drones but I think Ukraine is winning that race partly by knocking out the Russians’ EW, making their own drones EW immune and having their own effective EW shield and not least a hell of a lot of drones.<\/p>\n

We have seen the film of how quickly they prepare drones for the next round to drop wing grenades and the operator ran.
\nWe all understand that it does not look like that from north to south but in places where they pool capabilities like at Dnipro for example.<\/p>\n

Then you might think that Avdiivka should be a focus point for the Russians’ drones, but in the Bradley-T90 close combat, there was only one FPV drone in the T90 as far as I recall, and then an observation drone from UA.<\/p>\n

At Tolon, no one was afraid of drones and it was relatively close to the front.<\/p>\n

Then some German general complained that the Leo2s they get back to workshops in Germany are looted wrecks and that he wants to see a stop to that.
\nDo you know what I saw?
\nThat the mechanics in Ukraine do everything so that as many vehicles as possible can keep firing at the Russians all the time \u2013 they should get a medal.
\nInstead of 20 vehicles standing with technical faults, they loot three completely so the others can kill Russians.<\/p>\n

The Russians don\u2019t work like this, so the ratio of vehicles with technical faults is probably significantly lower for Ukraine than for RU. If 30% is some average, Ukraine is below and RU above.<\/p>\n

Sitting and looking at aggregated losses during January 2024 and it will be high provided it doesn\u2019t plummet the last week \u2013 it\u2019s a bit deceptive to think nothing is happening but Russians are dying in large flocks.
\nPerpetua\u2019s ratio just keeps getting better and it\u2019s easy to understand why \u2013 RU takes losses from indirect weapons and they rarely come within firing range of the combat targets except where they fight inside towns.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1749651077874516027?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One T90S knocked out \u2013 that\u2019s the export variant and not exactly \u201colder equipment\u201d.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1749584107078631724?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the truth about Taurus, someone called the manufacturer. This will become politically messy because many politicians have gone out with outright lies that have now been disproved in recent days. Why Taurus is a red line I will never understand. It is for Putin but shouldn\u2019t be for Germany, subversive activity maybe?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1749468089178009971?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This new Russian law is absolutely hysterically funny \u2013 many have during the war suggested that Ukraine should cede land for peace.
\nNow we have a Russian law passed that requires everything that has ever at any time been Russian, or Soviet, to be returned voluntarily or retaken by force.<\/p>\n

Should the USA give Alaska to Russia now, Ukraine has at least asked the question.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/spaghettikozak\/status\/1749349401477120271?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Nice to silence all the hypocrites who think Ukraine can cede land but will come up with a thousand excuses for this law until credibility crashes.<\/p>\n

Germany for example will have to give away quite a lot \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1749247966341108069?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The USA is delaying sending frozen Russian funds to Ukraine so now it seems the EU has taken charge of this, there are significant sums that the EU controls so very good, can probably finance two years of weapons production or more.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1749502054047854748?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here Russian soldiers are drinking water from puddles \u2013 things are going well now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1749439689155633346?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One last good news (but not for the Bashkirs), Russia is going very harshly in Bashkortostan so the chance of further disobedience is probably high.
\nRU does not have anywhere near what they would need of internal troops if it gets seriously unrestful in some places.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1749439689155633346?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

All good news. Now we will be scared about the impending fall of Avdiivka for a few months but if you look at Bakhmut the Russians have a very costly battle in the town ahead with a lot of death. Discussions about the tunnels out of Avdiivka and the enormous field fortifications will come soon \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It\u2019s worse than that \u2013 RU moved most of their air defense to Ukraine a few months ago, right?<\/p>\n

They were still unable to stop most of what Ukraine unleashed against the occupied areas.<\/p>\n

Then there was a move where they started pulling air defense out of Ukraine to reinforce the border-near air and army bases on the Russian side of the border when Ukraine began hitting them.<\/p>\n

So today they have far too little in Russia, they have barely protected prioritized bases when Ukraine with Western missiles would still reach them and they have too little of everything in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

At the same time as Ukraine takes out +90% of Russian missile attacks.<\/p>\n

You could say the stage is set if only Taurus and the rest of the SS were delivered and F16s came sometime \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks, interesting reading!<\/p>\n

Now this may be a bit OT, but for my part I would gladly read more about Africa and your experiences from there.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lively thread, 145 comments before lunch and yesterday\u2019s ended at almost 700.<\/p>\n

To break the thousand-comment barrier usually requires violent Russian stumbling suicide attacks or a Ukrainian neat and surgical precision offensive but the interest in the thread is high anyway, right?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I think the Bluesky era has started much more in the spirit of cornucopias than the Twitter account is, which is fun.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Rhodesia also had a very strong national identity with areas inhabited exclusively by whites, right?<\/p>\n

My thought was Ukraine as part of the Russian sphere and not the country Ukraine as delimited.<\/p>\n

Russia has had its claws in Ukraine since 2014 and they have (probably) hoped to conquer Ukraine softly through subversive activity.<\/p>\n

When Zelensky turned out to be a man of integrity, the last resort was to conquer Ukraine through invasion (probably).<\/p>\n

Civil war has been actively ongoing in the country since 2014.<\/p>\n

At the start of the war RU managed to bribe its way to a huge success in southern Ukraine.<\/p>\n

A large part of the government fled along with all sorts of others and Zelensky became somewhat of a unifying force.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

When elections eventually start in Ukraine, the Russians have their specialty subversive activity which seems able to put anyone on the podium.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d <\/p>\n

It is true that Russian losses are really high, even when looking at the quieter days.<\/p>\n

I think we ourselves have boiled like frogs. We have gotten used to record levels.<\/p>\n

I remember when we were around 150 KIA per day on average with peaks at 300 and then after summer 2022 it doubled to about 300 on average and 450 peaks. Enormous and unsustainable losses we thought then!<\/p>\n

Now if we are down to 700 some day or two we think it is a bit weak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I was pretty heavily criticized in the beginning over my descriptions of screaming and saber-waving high-knee attacks over the potato fields.<\/p>\n

Someone even went so far as to say that the word \u201cpotato field\u201d was disrespectful to the war or something.<\/p>\n

Everyone says the Russian army adapts to the situation and becomes more dangerous but I have a very hard time seeing the Tannenberg doctrine and mole doctrine as more dangerous than the mechanized combat they tried at the start of the war.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the mole doctrine is very slow, so you need a well-extended schedule and plenty of drinking water because it will probably get hot in the tunnels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Ukraine vs Russia if we remove the borders is comparable to South Africa was my thought.<\/p>\n

In the cases of South Africa, Rhodesia, and Angola, the Boers, Englishmen, and Portuguese families who lived there had been naturalized for what, 300-400 years back (guessing)?
\nThe bush war probably lasted from the 60s up to 1989 when the apartheid regime fell or something, where the white minority fought against liberation groups in all their constellations.
\nFirst the regime fell in Angola, then Rhodesia, and lastly South Africa.<\/p>\n

So\u2026
\nThe Ukrainians have formal power in the enclave Ukraine in the large geographical Russian sphere, and since 2014 there has been a civil war between the Ukrainians and the Russians.<\/p>\n

About 20% are ethnic Russians and what, 10%-15% is occupied. But the influence from the country Russia is enormously greater than that, and if their subversive activities work over time, they can probably get back a Russia-friendly government and then the “Ukrainians” have lost their country, or had the country divided or something.<\/p>\n

I’m just trying to show that it has happened three times recently already and teach the thread a bit of history \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It is my opinion that they exchanged an ethnic colonizer, which was something the West was deeply involved in, for local forces who behaved very badly, and the West completely lost interest because it then became an internal matter.<\/p>\n

Angola got an almost thirty-year civil war from it all that ended in the early 2000s.<\/p>\n

Looking out for the citizens’ best interests, the legacy after the liberations has actually been managed in the absolutely worst way.<\/p>\n

That said \u2013 there is good hope for southern Africa, which is among the most stable countries today and absolutely full to bursting with natural resources and a young, lively population.<\/p>\n

If you ask me, the southern part of Africa has a future if things don\u2019t go completely wrong going forward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Fifth in the thread as usual
\nbut UA has sabotaged 3 TU22M bombers.<\/p>\n

The question is often asked in the thread and here was the answer from GUR themselves.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1749940123800568262?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Under 50 robots in the attack. Was anything taken with EW? https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1749703983625581030?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w 10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraine","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2024-01-23 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-23-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024-01-23 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"09:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Under 50 robots in the attack. Was anything taken with EW? https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1749703983625581030?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w 10:39 \u2013 Johan No.1 […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-23-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-23T07:09:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-28T05:38:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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