{"id":8746,"date":"2024-01-27T11:04:34","date_gmt":"2024-01-27T10:04:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-27-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:39:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:39:12","slug":"2024-01-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Viktor had a fun idea yesterday \u2013 that Kristersson celebrates NATO membership with a hell of a weapons package to Ukraine, both pre-party and after-party and I think that sounds like a good idea \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

There has been some speculation about what lies behind the course change from Orban, Erdogan and Fico.
\nYesterday we saw one of China\u2019s hidden cards which was exciting \u2013 they have asked Iran to stop causing trouble in the Red Sea or else relations with China will deteriorate.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/spectatorindex\/status\/1750702921354817812?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a> <\/p>\n

One reason for everyone\u2019s course change could be that China has had enough and put its heel straight down on Putin\u2019s little crooked arthritic toes so he couldn\u2019t hold back the tears?<\/p>\n

Now we shall wildly speculate a bit more about this before we get the missing piece but that China is not on board with the whole global escalation that Russia is driving is quite clear at least because the blockade in the Red Sea is absolutely part of the global escalation.<\/p>\n

The one-eyed reptile is probably starting to look around for a serious way out here if China is telling Iran to sit down and keep quiet.<\/p>\n

Now it becomes a topic of wild speculation but what if China is not on the evil side at all?
\nWhat if BRIICS is about trade for them?
\nWhat if they are trying to navigate a huge population and fragile economy in the middle of all this and understand that they would lose out in a global conflict?
\nWhat if it is a Russian influence operation that China is on their side?
\n(not everything is black and white here and we can quickly bring up several examples of an aggressive China so some nuance might have been better instead of my harsh statements disguised as questions)<\/p>\n

Scholz is also one step closer to resigning \u2013 he has just reasoned that the fear of sending Taurus has to do with worries that it will be used against the country Russia.
\nWe are far beyond that so this argument could certainly be his downfall if he is not careful now.
\nDarth Putin wrote it in fewer words than we have discussed in the thread where someone writes too much \u2013 Russia has threatened and the West has been afraid of that huge escalation if Western weapons are used in Russia. Now Ukraine\u2019s carpet bombers have moved into Russia and there was no escalation at all even when they leveled the oil industry to the ground. You have to look harder for something more worth protecting.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1750953247773278261?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Interesting in this context is that Russia has promised enormous revenge and death over Ukraine but it has not come after several weeks of burning oil terminals.
\n(could be Enerhodar unfortunately).<\/p>\n

We know from before that Russia spends millions of dollars flying migrants to Mexico who are supposed to enter the USA so that they are trying to run a 2015 in the USA is quite clear.
\nWe also know that border guards for some reason have completely stopped checking migrants in Texas and even give them rides further into the country \u2013 this is a federal resource. We do not know why but the similarity to 2015 is striking, isn\u2019t it?
\nBorder protection collapsed and suddenly everyone was allowed in regardless and it coincided with large migration flows
\nIn Texas, the National Guard, which is a state resource, has taken over border protection because laws still have to be followed and suddenly everyone is screaming civil war.
\nI find the similarities with 2015 striking, it would be interesting to know the details around the border guards completely giving up their willingness to follow current laws?
\nHas there been influence from human rights organizations and that all forms of control were branded as racism or something similar?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sprinter99800\/status\/1750812883988983952?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We all see how the border control issue has completely stopped support to I..el and U\u2026a \u2013 the USA is currently completely down for the count as the world\u2019s police.<\/p>\n

Something that surprised me greatly is that the USA only has 3 CRG in the Pacific. We constantly discuss how Ukraine is an EU problem because the USA has Asia as its \u201cmain task\u201d but they are not strong in Asia in any way.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/johnkonrad\/status\/1750877890072154200?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If anyone thought everything is calm in Russia, Erik14 posted yesterday that two VDV generals have been dismissed and we know from before that the dictatorship is trying to blacken Teplinsky.
\nIt has been rumored, and we have discussed it, that the VDV would have joined the Wagner coup but backed out at the last moment.
\nVDV was probably the branch with some bite and Wagner was surprisingly capable so the threat was not small at all.
\nThis was in June 2023 and now the war is going even worse for the Russians so if there was aversion and coup plans then, there must be even more today.<\/p>\n

Those who in hindsight have been linked to the coup attempt were the capable ones within the army.
\nAt the time of the coup attempt there were about 10,000 police officers in Moscow (there must have been other things from the intelligence agencies so I don\u2019t really believe that) and the rats began to leave the ship.
\nThen my friend wonders if anyone has seen Gerasimov lately, in today\u2019s newspapers or moving images?<\/p>\n

Someone posted in the thread yesterday so not first but here is the link that Zelensky might confirm fewer than 100,000 dead.
\nUkrainian Politician Asks Zelensky to Disclose War Casualties, Claims Fewer Than 100,000 (kyivpost.com)
\nThis is also an indication that Russian losses of 360,000 dead for the ratio 1:5 in losses probably lands there if the earlier figure of 70,000 dead Ukrainians is correct.
\nThat Russia loses up to five times more barbarians than Ukraine loses liberation fighters we have many indications of during the war so far.
\nThen we have wounded, Russia I think is 1:2 but Ukraine is significantly higher than that, however they themselves have stated that 80% of the wounded return to the units.
\nThis mobilization that everyone thinks is because losses are sky-high is due to the army expanding and soldiers being discharged.<\/p>\n

Can someone explain to me how Russia can win with \u201cquantity is a quality in itself\u201d and \u201cendless recruits\u201d when with that loss ratio they have fewer soldiers available than Ukraine and on the ground in Ukraine they have fewer soldiers than Ukraine.
\nAccording to the latest information it is 462,000 (I don\u2019t think Rosgvardia, FSB, Omon and other branches are counted) and Ukraine has a defense force of up to a million today, right, or was it 800,000?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1745181697983840680?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nUkraine has both quantity and quality if you want to be picky \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then the old counting exercise \u2013 they started the war with 190,000 and today have 462,000 which is an increase of 272,000.
\nBefore the mobilization in September 2022 of 300,000 they added everything they could with volunteers, conscripts and training battalions so if we simplify and say that since March 2022 there have been 30,000 added per month until today.
\n30,000 per month is a figure Russia themselves have often communicated and I go back to the time before the mobilization when a lot was added but it is a simplification.
\nThat is 9 + 12 months times 30,000 \u2013 630,000
\nThen 300,000 in the mobilization on top of that is almost a million, right?
\nSince only 272,000 have been added, where are the remaining 658,000?
\nWe know the number of dead but that is far from the difference here.<\/p>\n

I have a feeling that this figure is low for RU losses up to September 2022, there were 60,000 dead and Forbes’ list for autumn 2022 had the RU army at 250,000 \u2013 400,000. At the lowest, 120,000 had been supplied and at most 270,000, so either 20,000 or 40,000 per month, so there is some chance that more have been supplied.
\n(that just ruined my wounded vs liberated ratio of 1:2)<\/p>\n

The USA has also delayed the construction of an LNG terminal to supply the EU with LNG. A decision with potentially enormous consequences, and someone should dig a bit into that lobbyist maybe \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/johnkonrad\/status\/1750971485194223943?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For some very strange reason, all these decisions always benefit Russia.<\/p>\n

A frank word on a Saturday morning \u2013 the unhealthy simmering anger one has had all these years when seeing how Russia, completely without consequences, makes the West a worse place to live in has turned into pure Christmas joy at seeing Ukraine take the war to Russia.<\/p>\n

I remember the end of the Cold War and my parents’ worry as they sat watching the news about the upheaval in a gray archipelago. You felt something was wrong, it was autumn but before you turned on the heating in the house it was cold, dark, gray and worrying \u2013 all Russia’s fault.
\nAll of Eastern Europe lost 40 years under Soviet oppression.<\/p>\n

Russia deserves what is coming, they deserve to be decolonized and they deserve many years in the freezer. Since the end of WW2, they have done exactly this \u2013 fueling proxy conflicts around the world and sabotaging the West as much as they can. It is a prioritized state function.<\/p>\n

I personally hope that Ukraine keeps pushing until the criminal clan turns inward and then we encase Russia in a NATO wall. This will break out into a dozen or so new countries and we will have enormously good exchanges with them just as we will with Ukraine, but Russia will probably have to be dealt with for quite a long time going forward.<\/p>\n

This war is absolutely terrible and the West has shown itself indecisive and unwilling from day one \u2013 Russia gets to dangle its threats and almost got its fake win by talking the West down here, but Ukraine has now for the third time in this war shown that if you call the bluff and put hard pressure on, Russia immediately backs down and starts crying about how unfair everything is.<\/p>\n

Apparently the EU has voted to designate Russia as a “state sponsor of terrorism,” someone told me earlier in the thread.
\nEuropean Parliament declares Russia to be a state sponsor of terrorism | News | European Parliament (europa.eu)<\/p>\n

So my question to all countries in the EU is why they are not using the extended anti-terror laws to root out Russian subversive activities.<\/p>\n

Since this is an exceptional situation, the last paid pro-Russians have been forced to out themselves, and if Russia is a state sponsor of terrorism, it is illegal to take instructions or be paid by the country Russia, and the likelihood that someone who started promoting the Russian narrative as an opinion maker in autumn 2023 has either taken instructions or been paid, or both, must be sky-high.
\nOr maybe I have misunderstood what the MEPs voted through \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Waiting times for a Ukrainian offensive when it now comes, I haven’t checked the weather and ground bearing capacity is always a big factor, but surely it is pre-bombardment against front-line functions again and presumably it is done with a purpose, but it might go on for a while maybe\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We also have to hope that the West now plays the last two yellow cards \u2013 invasion of Russia and no geographical restrictions on Western weapons.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine manages to strike the front-line bases inside Russia itself, the devastation would be enormous, and if they invade the northern oblasts and Rostov na Don (when the southern front has been rolled up), the rest will fall like a house of cards.<\/p>\n

You have to give Ukraine credit for their patience and an ability to endure that is exceptional. When the spring offensive got stuck in the minefields, they simply started a lot of other things and are increasing the offensive reserve even more.<\/p>\n

Ukraine absolutely believes they have time on their side and the big campaign plan is just on pause.<\/p>\n

If you go by Putin’s latest probes, he does not think so, but he still has not understood how bad the situation is and believes he can make the West force Ukraine to give up land \u2013 pride goes before a fall, as parents always used to say, and calling a presidential election in this situation is definitely pride.<\/p>\n

-positive-positive thus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The three times it has been shown that if you put hard pressure on, the Russians back down are \u2013
\n-counteroffensives
\n-the Black Sea fleet
\n-the carpet bombings in Russia<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Here you have someone who cares about Russia’s subversive activities as someone in the thread \u2013 very interesting reading.
\nA whole series of tweets.<\/p>\n

As said \u2013 a state-prioritized function of the criminal clan.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/zarinazabrisky\/status\/1751002655923507213?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

As much as someone in the thread it should say \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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