{"id":8754,"date":"2024-01-31T11:13:46","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T10:13:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-01-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:39:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:39:55","slug":"2024-01-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-01-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-01-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Got stuck in a meeting, good morning kyrrasi\u00e4rer.<\/p>\n

I think UA’s local (and small) offensives are becoming more numerous here, an exponentially increasing curve?
\nThe weather is awful now, hovering around zero and wet on the ground with alternating sun and rain \u2013 perfect for sucking the will to live out of the trench Russians.
\nThat kind of weather is among the worst to be in the field in, and you have to give UA credit that they are quite tough to maintain combat effectiveness for long periods.<\/p>\n

It is now and for a few months ahead that the Russians’ combat effectiveness will be at its worst here and (all of the West’s) SOF are probably operating around, but larger movements would affect the Russian will to fight enormously, I think.
\nNow they have some spruce branches in the trench and a fluttering plastic bag on a stick as an umbrella, so they manage barely, but if they have to get up and move in this weather, it could get quite lively.<\/p>\n

I remember some exercise where I got those left over as a half-platoon of infantry and did lots of fire ambushes, and the reserve captain who was an old infantryman recognized it and started sending us everywhere, only he didn\u2019t understand that we didn\u2019t have vehicles.
\nAfter a couple of days of running between fire ambushes in better weather than in UA, there was a mutiny.<\/p>\n

When it\u2019s time to move again for retreat, the Russians will discover that half of the vehicles won\u2019t start as usual and many units will be forgotten or receive their orders too late.<\/p>\n

They are a bit like lizards in the sunshine, right now they barely manage to move because they are cold-blooded and now cooled down, so they can\u2019t keep up with rapid movements at all.<\/p>\n

The increasing activity from Ukraine, which is “reconnaissance fighting” or local offensives, naturally happens with the purpose of finding weak points.
\nIf they manage to retake a larger area south of Horlivka, which is the old ceasefire line, it indicates that the Russians are by no means strong everywhere, right?<\/p>\n

The partisans, or ATESH, also seem to have been activated across the entire area and they contribute to the uncertainty SOF creates, so even units at rest need to watch their backs and no roads are safe.
\nRussian reconnaissance or SOF capabilities have been in sharp decline for quite some time as they have been used as offensive reserves and depleted.
\nUA\u2019s equivalent can be guessed to have increased significantly during the course of the war and are numerous and working on the tasks they are intended for.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to stay away from Russian subversive activities. Now the crafty Russians have been caught pushing very hard for Catalonia\u2019s liberation by wanting to give 500 billion USD and military support \u2013 so it\u2019s a civil war they have in mind.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kk7ciujfji2c<\/a><\/p>\n

– We know they are fueling all conflicts in Africa now \u2013 see which countries Wagner is in.
\n– Then we have good reason to believe they were behind October 7.
\n– And it is very likely they have gotten Iran to increase the pace here, Houthi, the attack on Pakistan and all attacks on US bases in MENA.
\n– They are trying to use the migration weapon in the USA to create conflicts between the federal government and the states.<\/p>\n

Between times when I try to describe Russian subversive activities, there are always a couple who write that \u201cyes, they do a lot but they can\u2019t possibly do that\u201d or that \u201cthat is extrapolating too far.\u201d<\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s the opposite \u2013 the Russians are engaged in more shady activities than we know.<\/p>\n

There was a fun discussion yesterday about those who do Russia\u2019s bidding \u2013 they get money, everyone understands that, but Russia also treats them like gods when they visit Russia \u2013 state banquets and formal events with the entire honor guard in parade uniform.
\nThen after a while they become rock stars in their home countries too because they push popular issues that concern many.
\nSo from having nothing, they have money and rock star status.
\nApparently, they usually get to go to Dubai as well with all the extras that entails, and in many cases, they meet the love of their life at one of all the banquets who are really interested in exactly what the person is passionate about.
\nI understand that many choose this because the issues they push are often not entirely shameless \u2013 in the case of Nigel Farage, there was broad dissatisfaction with the EU and the West has managed its legacy pretty poorly over the last 20 years.<\/p>\n

Then they bring in money they could only have dreamed of, get confirmation from important people (in the Russian sphere) and have gone from the perpetual single to a life partner they could only have dreamed of.
\nWhat I think we need is for the media to do their job and start exposing these people \u2013 it should damn well feel like going foreign power\u2019s errands to destabilize Sweden and not just be super fun.
\nThe media have previously had zero qualms about character assassinating all sorts of people, so they can surely make an effort for the country Sweden for once.
\nBefore you hit the emergency stop \u2013 I mean those who can be proven to have let themselves be entertained around and have proven contacts with Russian handlers or have been paid.
\nSerious journalists know their investigative work and when they have enough to go on.<\/p>\n

You shouldn\u2019t do what the media often does, act on loose rumors so the persons in question take their lives and then post a half apology that the person probably misunderstood everything and that they themselves are the victim in all this.
\nYes, a bit controversial but these are new times and children are tortured and murdered daily in Ukraine because these people very effectively slow down all Western support to the country and live well on it \u2013 traveling merchants of death.<\/p>\n

On the subject of influence operations, we had a fairly intense period of decolonization that washed over the West recently and every politician knows that if you want to keep your job you don\u2019t step into it (at all).
\nThen Wagner came big in Africa and now Russia has more formally established itself in Central Africa but is present in about half of all countries in Africa.
\nThe most fragile states in the world with a history of bloody civil wars and Russia wants to bring back bloody civil wars, refugee flows, plundering of natural resources and runaway corruption.
\nThe rebel leader in Niger asks Germany to keep quiet because Europe has only contributed slavery and plundering of Africa, so that he can continue slavery and plundering of Niger together with Russia.
\n99.9% of all politicians in the West will back down from such statements for quite a long time.
\n-well played russiad\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sprinter99800\/status\/1752101581690933472?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine made a sensational statement the other day \u2013 if the West stops giving support, we will increase liberation actions in Russia correspondingly and Russia has no chance to defend itself.
\nSo they give the West a choice here \u2013 very clever.<\/p>\n

Fun that they can escalate from knocking out the entire oil industry and turning off the lights in half of the regions \u2013 sounds very violent and good.
\nJust in the last few days, there have surely been explosions in five substations causing the water to freeze and cascading effects.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1752406701528006882?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The cyber battalion keeps fighting with their Jolt Cola and sweaty t-shirts \u2013 this should not be underestimated at all.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1752381363129360738?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A prioritized RU brigade \u2013 810 marine infantry has unmodified T55s, yes, things are going well now (not).
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1752381363129360738?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

That RU offensives are going terribly is indisputable, how many strategic reserves they have left is unclear, at least half are gone.
\n-Ukraine\u2019s small local offensives are sharply increasing \u2013 we hear more and more.
\n-The liberation acts against the oil industry continue \u2013 the West has not issued yellow cards.
\n-The liberation acts in \u201coperation turn off the lights\u201d are in full swing with several substations blown up in a few days.
\n-The West (except the USA) affirms its support for Ukraine.
\n-The Glide bombs have arrived.
\n-They come with Storm Shadow.
\n-Taurus is not far away.
\n-Hundreds of new tanks from Morocco and Kuwait.
\n-Germany has hundreds of IFVs (old BMPs apparently) on the way.
\n-France contributes with artillery.
\n-The EU contributes 1.3 million 155mm shells.
\n-F-16s are on the way.
\n-Bulgaria has promised to start sending much more and they have huge amounts of materiel.
\n-Greece opens its stockpiles.
\n-UA will receive funds from the EU both frozen and grants so they can start contracts on new weapons.
\n-Domestic production in Ukraine has increased enormously.
\n-Russian new production is a joke, the oil industry is dying and the country is blacked out.
\n-We are heading towards a very exciting 2024 to say the least \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

It is actually hard not to be -positive-positive- when Putin is supposed to have his new election in 1.5 months, worst idea ever and he will regret it immensely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This is what it looks like when UA misses the oil terminal today in St Petersburg, a huge fireball \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

It was exactly the same with the terminal last week \u2013 insignificant damage and now we know it will be out of operation for months ahead.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1752619969215422849?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

It\u2019s raining death over Crimea right now \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1752707578969432485?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:47 \u2013 Johan No.1 Got stuck in a meeting, good morning kyrrasi\u00e4rer. 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