{"id":8808,"date":"2024-02-06T08:54:49","date_gmt":"2024-02-06T07:54:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-06-4\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T07:57:55","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T05:57:55","slug":"2024-02-06-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-06-4\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-06"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1754595832689532983?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

We tend to always focus on one thing at a time and now the oil industry has been the new black. Worth noting that drone and other fun attacks on targets in Ukraine and nearby oblasts are ongoing continuously \u2013 it is a very intense and constant campaign.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/astraiaintel\/status\/1754250778582077658?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there are also liberation acts against the rail network and signal boxes, and evidently also water treatment plants and district heating. As long as it is below freezing in Russia, there will be large cascading effects from everything that freezes and breaks, so maximum impact.
\nYesterday the badger brought up that 75% of Russia’s electricity production comes from oil and gas. If you cut out oil and gas production, you logically also slow down Russia’s electricity production \u2013 an extra bonus to factor into the bigger slow-motion train wreck.<\/p>\n

The noticeable pinpricks against war-important industry are also ongoing, the factory targeted by Lancet drones got a visit (earlier!) and the facility that manufactures engines for tanks and IFVs as well. No gearbox, no vehicle.<\/p>\n

What we don\u2019t hear about right now are campaigns against Russian citizens to shape opinion but just as Russia conducts this in Ukraine, and the West, Ukraine is working intensively on it in Russia.
\nJust arrested \u201cintelligence officers\u201d in Ukraine who were Russian spies.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1754811995289800855?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Bashkortostan has now been named one of the larger protests in Russia and we can be absolutely sure that Ukraine has good relations with all liberation fronts that help with all of the above, but also oppressed and colonized indigenous peoples who seek their individual freedom according to international law.
\nUkraine is a superhero for all freedom-thirsty oppressed and colonized indigenous peoples in colonized Russia.<\/p>\n

Something enormously simple would be to start popular protests in a large number of republics in connection with the presidential election so that the republics and oblasts themselves discover that the Rosgvardia is not enough?
\nImagine their surprise when after the third day of protests and march to the governor\u2019s palace they still see no sign of any internal troops \u2013 somewhere around there they probably take over and declare themselves liberated and decolonized \ud83d\ude00
\nNever forget that Putin has silenced Prigozhin and Girkin as well as all other war-critical voices \u2013 he has straightened out the entire media landscape.<\/p>\n

At the same time as he works intensively with his influence operations in the West and our media year after year uncritically reproduces their narrative.
\nSo there is a very strong positive bias for Russia in the information circulating (except here) right now.<\/p>\n

Magpies brought up that the Russian strategic reserve is 60,000 but only 20,000 are equipped.
\nThe article is brand new from ISW: https:\/\/eng.obozrevatel.com\/section-war\/news-the-isw-assessed-what-the-deployment-of-reserves-in-ukraine-will-bring-to-russia-and-made-a-forecast-for-2024-map-05-02-2024.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Not much of a strategic reserve there \u2013 what happened to \u201cquantity is a quality in itself,\u201d asks a worried friend in a bunker in Altai.
\nThere should admittedly be about half a million soldiers in Ukraine now but those are rear functions, logistics, air defense, depots, the 12,000 on Crimea, the air force, navy, administration so the spearhead is significantly fewer than that.
\nAnd above all the spearhead is hard pressed as there is reverse Darwinism in the Russian army and it is also the spearhead that has been attacking since last autumn.
\nUnclear if Rosgvardia, FSB et.al are included in this but logistics and FSB will not accept dying in a potato field in Ukraine, it will be full throttle towards the border.<\/p>\n

Then I am, by the way, a bit curious about what reserves are starting to appear on the southern front \u2013 has ISW counted them?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anno1540\/status\/1754511268096995431?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

With what we have received for a while now, it appears that RU intends offensive operations at Avdiivka, northern Luhansk and possibly the southern front. That is an ambitious attempt by the Russians to break the back of RU and we can expect offensive operations also at the northern front, Bakhmut and Vuhledar.<\/p>\n

Then it is actually even worse that the West has delayed with ammunition, now Borrell went out and clarified that production is not a problem but they do not prioritize Ukraine, they sell to other non-warring countries first.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1754564892068073881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It is always all these discussions about how it is not possible to carry out offensives during certain periods and then the Russians do it anyway for the third year in a row.<\/p>\n

I think the legend who at the beginning of the war informed the rest of us ignorant in the thread that the Russians only have one mode \u2013 if it doesn\u2019t work with the level of violence they increase the level of violence until they win or it crashes should get the Nobel Prize, I don\u2019t remember his name.<\/p>\n

We will see another round of absolutely pointless offensives where RU takes astronomical losses and where a new influence operation is launched that Russia can keep going like this for years until they win.<\/p>\n

Now the thread has done its homework unlike many others and knows that there is a shortage of MBTs, IFVs and artillery in the depots compared to losses and guesses that probably 30% of what remains is unusable.
\nWe also know that new production is laughably small, 400 MBTs during 2023 and most of that was modifications and such clarified directly from depots, i.e. unmodified vehicles.<\/p>\n

Then we have after LW\u2019s post about the number of missing who have been searched for and a comparison with losses of heavy materiel vs. the reduction in depots a somewhat confirmation that the number of dead and knocked-out materiel is roughly correct.
\nWe also have information on how large STRATEGIC reserves have been prepared and before this offensive reserve arrived at Avdiivka and maybe also one up in northern Luhansk about half had been put into combat (consumed) \u2013 that took a few months.<\/p>\n

Then we know that Russian artillery fire has gone down from 63,000 shells per day to 10,000 shells per day.<\/p>\n

Now another Russian influence operation is about to be launched, shame on those who give up, that the best for the world is that UA gives up land.
\nKeep an eye on who in the West starts pushing this because the security services do so the last ones will end up on the list.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1754746070582587869?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now that the USA is a quagmire of internal party-political conflicts and Russian subversive activities fuel everything they can so they are almost down for the count, google a bit about the liberation of Texas\u2026, Europe has taken up the superhero mantle and slapped on the plastic mask.
\nGermany was first out with huge support packages this year and Scholz stands strong.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Azovsouth\/status\/1754591549734723757?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the UK came in as a good second and now the French don\u2019t want to be worse \u2013 credit where credit is due.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1754604348552700030?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1754607453365309728?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Summing it up a bit, there are hundreds of new tanks arriving fully modified, so the new tanks are definitely on par with those being supplied to RU combat units in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

We always get caught up in the drone weapon, but UA continuously manufactures its own artillery and IFVs and has its own ammunition production, and now the forges in the West are starting to heat up, and during 2024 deliveries of the first newly manufactured and paid-for IFVs and artillery systems from the West will begin. Tanks are probably not far off either but have a slightly longer lead time and need to be license-produced.
\nThe strike aircraft will be delivered before summer, right?<\/p>\n

Bulgaria and Greece are probably slowly being persuaded to open their arsenals, but I still miss one thing actually.
\nSpain and Portugal, which receive their EU grants, could instead be bought out for unit-equipped materiel with the same funds and sent to UA?
\nBuy it at new price, they would have gotten the funds anyway without any counterperformance?<\/p>\n

Now UA has its own instructors on all delivered vehicles so more of the same causes no problems.
\nBoth countries have Leo2 and that tank has proven to be highly capable.
\nThen I hope UA gets to shop freely with those 50 billion EUR and what the USA sends, or the 10% that doesn\u2019t stay in the USA of those 60 billion USD.<\/p>\n

Ukraine needs to get a large number of fragmentation-protected vehicles so they \u201ccan afford to waste\u201d them going forward.
\nThe tank is now a 4 km sniper and you can manage with fewer.
\nAll types of fragmentation-protected vehicles are fine, a railbus that is to deliver the infantry close enough to the defense system.<\/p>\n

I guess Hungary has gone too far and that there will be consequences here \u2013 the arrogance of the parliament not showing up when all NATO ambassadors are present is absolutely enormous. You simply don\u2019t behave like that as a recipient and dependent country.<\/p>\n

Take the graph below and consider whether China will want to pursue a scorched earth tactic with Russia or if they are starting to get fed up with this now?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/hotsotin\/status\/1754608221392683399?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have consistently believed that we have not yet seen China\u2019s cards but my main thesis has been that they are not interested in a global active conflict. From what we have seen so far, it points in that direction.<\/p>\n

Putin thus stands completely alone and has the entire West against him \u2013 defeat is only a matter of time and the consequences of this Russia will have to live with for generations. The global atomic bomb has already exploded and what we see now is just the path to defeat and that Russia (hopefully) turns inward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Seems to be intense in places in Avdiivka \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1754779723874324647?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Insanely cool, Storm Shadow sweeps over an S300 battery and the Russians are standing there swearing.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kkr5dimqgt22<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

RU is paying extortionate prices for Shaheds \ud83d\ude02\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/colbybadhwar\/status\/1754909259546935512?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

A pretty good point to raise is that UA can shoot them down with missiles because the cost-benefit ratio is acceptable.
\nIf they are shot down with light machine guns, it\u2019s a huge win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:52 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1754595832689532983?s=20 We tend to always focus on one thing at a time and now 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