{"id":8832,"date":"2024-02-14T08:59:45","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T07:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-14-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:01:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:01:28","slug":"2024-02-14-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-14-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I was a bit duped yesterday that Deepstate didn\u2019t make any map changes but instead there was a huge change last night \u2013 now the factory area and the settlement in Avdiivka are separate areas with no contact between them.<\/p>\n

The defense of the factory area should probably not be underestimated but the settlement in Avdiivka is very close to being encircled \u2013 a larger attack against Siverne by RU is all that is needed and it will come soon.<\/p>\n

Then it remains to be seen if there is anything behind the Twitter rumors that Ukraine is gathering offensive reserves in the north for a counterattack. The coming week will be very interesting.<\/p>\n

We also discussed a few days ago that they might hold the factory area but leave the settlement and fall back to prepared defense in the string of villages west of Avdiivka \u2013 that would also work.<\/p>\n

However, they probably prefer a delaying battle through the settlement and not be forced to give it up immediately at risk of encirclement. The 3rd Azov is especially suited for this delaying battle and UA did the same in Severodonetsk \u2013 withdrew regular units and sent in those capable of urban combat.<\/p>\n

Regarding UA losses that came up yesterday, the figure 1:7 was mentioned. Previously we have discussed \u2013
\n-60,000 \u2013 70,000 fallen UA soldiers
\n\u2013 a RU loss figure of 400,000.
\n-we have heard many times a ratio of 1:5 in official communication.
\n-UA had, except for Lysychansk when it went up to 500 per day, 100-150 per day in losses communicated by Zelensky when it is intense.<\/p>\n

Adding it all up, it is for me established that RU losses are fallen \u2013 that is, stone dead.<\/p>\n

We can assume that UA has 1:3 in wounded and that figure has circulated before in number of wounded but maybe it was based on exactly 1:3 and an assumption by experts, I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n

We have reason to assume that RU ratio is less than or equal to 1:2, but in wintertime you have to add 30% for non-war-related injuries. Wagner had 1:2 or more in wounded and they didn\u2019t back down from a fight?<\/p>\n

Then I have on several occasions tried to sum up the Russian total including everything we know and 400,000 + 1:2 (a bit under\u2026) gives a figure that fits with the 450,000 \u2013 500,000 that UA states are in Ukraine + the number mobilized \u2013 fallen and wounded.<\/p>\n

Therefore, for me there are no direct reasons anymore to assume that 400,000 would include wounded and then there are good reasons for me to assume that figure is correct or on the low side. I know I have at least Erik14 with me in this assumption. Then some always come back saying it also includes wounded but now I think it is sufficiently proven \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then it is beyond doubt that when history is written the civilian losses will be absolutely astronomical. Just think of this winter in Mariupol, no electricity, no food, diseases and Russians who probably take your food and heat if you happen to have any. It is the second war winter the civilians in Mariupol who remain will have to survive.<\/p>\n

I claim that Russia has now lost over 50% of its refinery and export capacity. The refinery in Moscow was large and accounted for 40%-50% of the fuel in Moscow.<\/p>\n

According to earlier information, Ukraine has the coordinates to all fuel depots near the front or main depots that create moon craters when they get their technical failures.<\/p>\n

It took 1.5 months to knock out half of the refinery capacity and I see no reason why it should go slower going forward so by the end of March they will reach 100%.<\/p>\n

70% of RU energy supply is generators and the special operation consumes astronomical amounts of fuel so knocking out refinery capacity is a damaging blow.<\/p>\n

We learned from Tucker that Putin was interested in a peaceful solution and now we read, even if it was in August 2023, that Putin extended an olive branch and wants to save the children.
\nDoes this feel like the Russians want to fight for another five years?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1757473318058197031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you see deployed T62 in a motorized brigade but what else do you see \u2013 it is an unmodified vehicle so it has presumably been completed directly from the depot. A Bradley or CV90 outclasses this vehicle every time and if a drone even touches it, it flies up in the air.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/naalsio26\/status\/1757200677195878716?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A Mig factory (aircraft) seems to have had a technical failure, doesn\u2019t look completely blown out but something is burning \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1757361649650991387?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine continues to go after the most skilled drone operators.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1757524812723818720?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If Ukraine can now just show its teeth properly in Avdiivka then maybe the paralysis in the West will finally ease.
\nAll Ukraine needs to get is ammunition for all the different weapon systems, they already have the offensive reserve and then the war can be decided in 2024 but ammunition and weapon platforms MUST be delivered, there is no shortcut to a smashing victory.<\/p>\n

I am of the opinion that Tucker was tasked with leaking that Putin is ready to negotiate \u2013 that was part of his assignment. A sign of weakness \u2013 absolutely.<\/p>\n

However, no one has yet succeeded in provoking him to go on the defensive.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rpsagainsttrump\/status\/1757108409864745146?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Our good friend Elon currently thinks the most important thing of all is that Congress does not approve support to Ukraine \u2013 explicitly so. Is there anyone who thinks that he, as a tech wonder and a decent guy, would have that as a priority?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/joshrogin\/status\/1757198677209199015?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Shouldn\u2019t that have been Tesla, Twitter or moon landings?
\nThings are often what they appear to be and in Elon\u2019s case there is zero doubt. It would be appropriate to look at how he financed the purchase of Twitter, pretty sure there is Russian money behind it.<\/p>\n

Did you think you worked in a bad organization \u2013 the project manager, you know the one who makes all the mistakes, blames everyone else and almost got us lynched, came to the project in August 2023. The project already had a local talent who did all the work and worked until 11:00 PM and the project manager immediately singled him out. He took task after task from him and accused him of everything, theft, embezzlement, everything.
\nHeadquarters went along with his line \u2013 a serious warning was issued and the boss above him in the Netherlands has over time moved towards accepting everything the project manager says and does as truth.
\nThe local talent has now resigned and taken a job with the client (customer, employer, client) and they almost cried for real over the luck of getting him into their organization, they didn\u2019t believe it was true.
\nGuess if the project manager has an enemy who will do everything to make life miserable for him and guess if my company will be phased out of this project over time and I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if they get fewer projects in the country\ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

We will see how Avdiivka plays out here, I still consider based on Deepstate that it is an extremely sharp situation and that the only thing that can really solve the situation is an offensive attempt up by Krasnohorivka. If that doesn\u2019t happen, it\u2019s nesting out of the settlement and maybe holding the factory area.<\/p>\n

Avdiivka is, just like Bakhmut, a huge flytrap and the ratio is 1:7 if I remember correctly. Then it is true that if you don’t fight in Avdiivka, you have to fight somewhere else, right \u2013 it won’t be calm if you abandon Avdiivka.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ropuchan was probably fully loaded with ammunition?<\/p>\n

They are probably all used to get ammunition into the port closest to the front lines now that the rail network is exposed and the roads are terrible.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has really targeted this type of ship precisely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Did you see JUSTITIA at 10:23? It was simply the right ship to sink just today! \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:40 \u2013 Johan No.1 I was a bit duped yesterday that Deepstate didn\u2019t make any map changes but instead there 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