{"id":8838,"date":"2024-02-18T12:09:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-18T11:09:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-18-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:02:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:02:40","slug":"2024-02-18-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-18-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Yesterday Avdiivka passed into Russian hands according to Deepstate \u2013 or the ruins and fields covered in Russian corpses that once were Avdiivka. According to UA official sources, no units were encircled and everyone could retreat but you know as well as I do that there is always a rear guard that has to run along the ditches and do the best they can \u2013 some prisoners were probably taken and when RU has gathered the corpses that couldn\u2019t be transported out and piled them up it will look like a horrific loss and Russian psyops will be running at full speed about Avdiivka.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/clement_molin\/status\/1758548429360304167?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1758795143421829459?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The fact that 12 RU brigades have been severely decimated in Avdiivka will be completely missed by the media, words like \u201cstrategically important city\u201d we will surely hear again \ud83d\ude00
\nTwo spetsnaz brigades took existential losses in recent weeks.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1758956055319515303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I claim this was a well-executed retreat, they didn\u2019t just bring forward 3rd Azov but GUR and some SOF who kept the retreat route open long enough.
\nNow that Sirsky and his combat leadership have shown themselves capable of more than the nickname \u201cthe butcher of Bakhmut\u201d we have to keep an eye on all other front sections now.<\/p>\n

The Russians have notoriously struggled to get out of the starting blocks throughout the war in northern Luhansk, the winter 2023 offensive didn\u2019t happen for example.
\nHowever, they seem to be currently conducting ambitious attempts since last autumn and they got a local breakthrough with tanks as battering rams.
\nIt\u2019s no secret that the Russians want to secure the terrain up to the Oskil river and thereby anchor their northern flank. Ukraine is by no means weak in the area and they have a hornet\u2019s nest of SOF deep inside.
\nWe also know that the Russians have been weakened in waves to a point where they were no longer really capable of defense (if Ukraine prioritized offense) but that they have now brought in offensive strategic reserves for a last offensive before the presidential election.
\nHard to predict the number but 25,000 \u2013 30,000 and then they are down to too low a level again maybe?<\/p>\n

At the southern front the condition of the Dnipro Russians is absolutely terrible and the units at the southern front are sluggish but RU has brought forward a strategic reserve, probably CAA of 15,000 or similar.
\nWhen that is gone the condition returns to terrible again, right?<\/p>\n

So quite a lot can happen here going forward and now finally Denmark has read the thread and taken the message \u2013 they are sending unit-set materiel as the first country in Europe, all their artillery. The motivation is correct and we can hope more countries follow, especially those getting lots of aid from the EU.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1759133748556099622?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then they have started vacuuming out ammunition depots if I may guess?
\nSomeone is willing to release from their readiness stockpile against payment presumably?
\nThis has been somewhat of a pet topic in the thread but now it seems to be loosening.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1758869541302456686?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the USA, the USA that supposedly can\u2019t send anything because Congress locks everything, has just sent a lot of JDAMS to Ukraine which they already have mounts for on their aircraft.
\nA somewhat unusual package I must admit, they should mostly be used for front-line combat and are quite suitable for preparing the ground for an offensive?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1758993678389936217?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

David D explains Biden\u2019s betrayal quite well here \u2013 I believe he knows what he\u2019s talking about. Biden could have sent enormous amounts of materiel without Congress, Senate or anyone else.
\nHe used this to send materiel to Morocco for example and I\u2026el.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1759042226686919162?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nNow it becomes wild speculation without anything to support it but if I may guess he has bad advisors who on some grounds have managed to persuade him not to support Ukraine. Could be bought by the Russians could be something else.
\nI don\u2019t know who it would be but that he has bad advisors is crystal clear because this is a real mess and Biden will not escape criticism so close to the presidential election.<\/p>\n

When Medvedev goes in and comments on your tweet and agrees with you, then you are seriously wrong. The Elon defense in the thread has become thinner the more obvious it becomes that he is doing Russia\u2019s bidding I have gotten the impression?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1758889828634988967?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One more Russian general is confirmed dead.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1759044679612461519?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Azov has learned to clear bunkers with IFVs, we didn\u2019t fight like this but it looks like it works. 3rd Azov is probably one of the units in this war that has broad work-life experience of clearing bunker systems and should have tried their way to something that really works.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/antoninaodessa\/status\/1758622983491362940?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This film on G..a I think is worth watching, it was at least for me because I had latched onto the information about an open prison that survived only on international aid where children starved.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1758999710449246703?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A good deal of Tucker\u2019s videos were by the way aimed at the Russian audience \u2013 everything when he compares the West \u2013 RU is not to fool us but to make the Russians believe they live in paradise \u2013 welcome Soviet 2.0.<\/p>\n

F-16s are coming with long-range missiles which is fun.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kkofmigzhd2c<\/a><\/p>\n

The Baltic states\u2019 magic line seems to be well built, a bit late perhaps but better late than never and they will cooperate around certain critical weapon systems like HIMARS.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1756709170768695674?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see if 3-4 downed latest model fighter jets make an impact on the number of FAB bombs dropped?
\nNotable for me is that RU no longer flies SU-24 and SU-25 but it\u2019s the new ones that are shot down.
\nHard to draw conclusions on that but it could mean they have run out of the SU-24\/25 fleet and that they are grounded with technical faults at the airfields maybe \ud83d\ude00
\nAnyway, the production of SU-34 or 35 (can\u2019t remember) was exactly 3 in 2023 so there went a year\u2019s production.
\nThese hit-and-run are absolutely spectacular and come at regular intervals so UA has found something that really works here.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noclador\/status\/1758977513907249332?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nDavid D believes they are operating completely outside the manual with the Patriot battery but as many point out there is a mosaic of air defense in Ukraine and it could be any system.<\/p>\n

Now we are just waiting for 155mm, more SS, Taurus, cluster grenades, F-16s, and large deliveries of heavy vehicles, then Ukraine will be back on track again.
\nThis one looks good for mine clearance.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/raging545\/status\/1754294905529151884?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The first RU attack in Robotyne ended with 30 burning vehicles, so that has the potential to become a new Avdiivka \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Then the anniversary of the war is approaching here and I sincerely hope that Budanov has received a blank check.
\nZelensky was very outspoken in Munich \u2013 definitely a new situation.<\/p>\n

Then I have to ask \u2013 all of you who believe that Ukraine can never go on the offensive and retake terrain, how do you explain that RU has just done exactly that?
\nUkraine can, in its own offensive, inflict a 1:5 loss ratio on RU by using the palette of indirect capabilities and direct support well. We saw that throughout the spring offensive but then the West totally pulled the rug out from under Ukraine here.
\nIf Ukraine just gets ammunition and materiel, they will return to their 1:5 offensives with the difference that this time the weapon carriers are denied front time by FAB bombs and they cause losses \u2013 a terrible weapon.
\nUkraine has now solved mine clearance, anything else would be negligence.
\nUkraine de facto has an offensive reserve thanks to Zalizhny and that he did not listen to NATO commanders’ most insane proposals.<\/p>\n

Everything looks bright as usual actually, now ammunition deliveries have started here but apparently it took Ukraine having to fall back for the West to come to its senses. Denmark being first out was fun.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:14 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Yes, yes, but I want to know more about Krynky?
\nThe Russians were supposed to attack there, have they managed to repel them or is the situation critical???<\/p>\n

Finally saw your attempt yesterday to both revise history in a Russian way and use reverse rhetoric\u2026 \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\ude00 I thought it was a bit funny.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
17:06 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Me too! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

RU has advances in several places right now due to ammunition shortages. Before this sinkhole, Ukraine destroyed everything already during the advance, now they can only watch the troop buildup and then they take the full hit. Absolutely insane that the West is sleeping through this. Ukraine falling back was one of two indicators we were supposed to watch and they are doing just that right now. Does the West have no own analysts who are awake?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes okay maybe they are sleeping and haven\u2019t drunk a trash bin full of empty beer cans but I think overall people miss that Ukraine cannot fight with shovels and dirt clods.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Ukraine is thus missing the chance to wipe out tens of thousands of Russians right now because the West is not sending what is lying in stockpiles gathering dust.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Like a half-bad school assignment this is.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

RU managed to modify and complete 400 T90M, T80, and T72 tanks. New production was nonexistent and almost everything was modifications.<\/p>\n

In addition, they had 800 (at least) T62s in a modification program and besides that they completed T54-55 and T62 directly from depots, probably some T72s as well \u2013 these are thus not modified and we have seen those vehicles assigned to offensive prioritized armored brigades.<\/p>\n

A few hundred manufactured per month did not happen in 2023 and it is going even worse in 2024 because the factory that made all the engines burned down.<\/p>\n

According to the covert cabal, there were well X thousand tanks left in depots and 30% presumably will never roll. With the losses they have had during the autumn, it would go towards zero already by summer 2024, which it will not because they lose less the fewer they have left.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s how it looks \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

In China there was a major crackdown on corruption a few years ago and all kinds of representatives were taken down after their black money was exposed \u2013 it was only Xi Jinping who cleared out some opposition and used corruption as a tool.
\nAs a bonus, the citizens were happy for a few years when they saw high officials hanged.<\/p>\n

Corrupt police do well too \u2013 a bunch ask them to wipe out their competitors for a good bag of cash and the police go all out saying they are taking a new approach to organized crime and showing results \u2013 everyone is happy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:23 \u2013 Johan No.1 Yesterday Avdiivka passed into Russian hands according to Deepstate \u2013 or the ruins and fields covered 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