{"id":8848,"date":"2024-02-22T10:55:48","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T09:55:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:03:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:03:56","slug":"2024-02-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A small hint that although February only has 29 days this leap year, it seems there could be very high RU monthly loss figures which is welcome and very good. When it comes to ATH days, all categories lag except barbarians, but the monthly totals are very high \u2013 simply a steady carpet of death that greatly affects the total. The number of fallen barbarians is steadily high, signaling more screaming across the fields and less mechanized combat \u2013 RU has definitely reverted to the Tannenberg doctrine, as seen in the loss statistics.<\/p>\n

The funny thing is that Ukraine will now start fighting mechanized, so Tannenberg meets 2024 and the probability says it won’t go well for Putin.<\/p>\n

So far in the war, the biggest misjudgment was the spring offensive and I am very curious about how the events unfolded, so historians should start arguing about it already.
\nWhat we can be sure of, however, is that UA will not repeat that mistake and that the next offensive will be mechanized and violent.<\/p>\n

As someone wrote in the thread yesterday, you don’t fight Russians in the Russian way, right?
\nHistorically, and in the Ukraine war, the Russians have spectacularly lost in larger maneuvers. Since their doctrine is taken from Tannenberg, the blitzkrieg developed a few years later should reasonably still hold up as it is reformulated today in the West?<\/p>\n

Now it is the end of February 2024 and the West is slowly starting to talk about ammunition \u2013 UA has probably learned the lesson and will not start anything before they have the materiel in place because the West can promise and then not send what they promised without blinking. Without F-16, no all-out offensive (I assume they will exploit openings when the opportunity arises) so that is probably the critical line here.<\/p>\n

We can thus sincerely hope that everything is in place so the offensive does not start too late.<\/p>\n

Canada is now paying for the ammunition the Czechs found in someone’s emergency stockpile, so that was solved. Was close to a million shells in total?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3klyfcdw4m22q<\/a><\/p>\n

Then we see some kind of new pattern that I actually don’t understand \u2013 I guess it is GLDSB raining down on staging areas in Donetsk and Kherson \u2013 do they really have no better targets to strike?
\nI thought the glide bombs had just the range but they have been fired at a front-near target in Kherson. Or maybe more ATACMS have been delivered as I wrote the other day in some expression of joy?
\nAnyway \u2013 quite good intelligence situation to be able to strike a staging area for inspection within a time window of hours in the darkest Donbass.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1760389337009529311?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One of the biggest things right now is that R in the USA has gone after Biden on Russian planted information. It hasn’t really taken off yet but the source is seized for having received the information from the FSB and is arrested.
\nThis should reasonably lead to resignations?<\/p>\n

The world is seriously upside down, and Russia is turning it upside down \u2013 they run Qanon with widely spread conspiracies while planting information, often false.
\nThey do all sorts of things \u2013 hack into computers and leave information or steal information. If you are a public person where the police after an anonymous tip find inappropriate pictures of minors on your computer, and then it leaks directly to the press, it doesn’t matter that the investigation a year later concludes they were planted. Then it just becomes “the elite protects their own”.<\/p>\n

The source is probably not the best but it summarizes the charges that have been based on this informant.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/edkrassen\/status\/1760298802827628711?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one came in late, now Transnistria wants to belong to Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/realdaciandraco\/status\/1760417131257004478?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If one is to summarize the war for Putin, it looks like this \u2013
\n-Russia cannot win the war, they will lose, the only question is when.
\n-Russia will be forced to leave all of Ukraine in the process.
\n-Russia has incurred heavy sanctions that will only be eased if Russia negotiates its way out, if Ukraine wins in a fair fight there are few reasons for the West to ease sanctions unless RU pays Ukraine, war criminals are prosecuted, all kidnapped children are returned, all stolen goods are returned and many other things.
\n-China has grown tired and wants to end the war.
\n\u2013 Europe (EU) has united around the flag.
\n-War materiel production in the West has now started.<\/p>\n

Putin has ruthlessly exploited all channels until the Ukraine war started. There are years of planning behind where they fooled the West with all sorts of things.<\/p>\n

Hamas is first out to face consequences for choosing to side with Putin. Iran is likely to follow \u2013 I find it hard to believe there won’t be a popular revolution there. Belarus is on the brink.
\nHe has actually succeeded in achieving the opposite of his purpose in most things.<\/p>\n

We have seen a fascist dictatorship born and go all the way \u2013 this is how WW2 started and the difference is that Ukraine intervened. This is our time’s global conflict.<\/p>\n

We have had large campaigns for the West to feel guilty about everything, sure we have a colonial legacy in Sweden to be ashamed of?<\/p>\n

It is quite clear to me that it is driven by Russia so that together with China, they can recolonize Africa, which is among the planet’s most fragile countries.<\/p>\n

It is consistent that all the movements that take to the streets or Twitter always criticize I…el, EU or USA but never China or Russia.<\/p>\n

If it is an environmental movement, Swedish nuclear power should be shut down but not a word about China from the same movement even though all graphs tell a clear story. The only thing they did when it started coming up on the agenda was to declare that the only thing that mattered was emissions per person and then China and India were low so they avoided dealing with it.<\/p>\n

Right now my Twitter feed is full of angry Swedes who are absolutely pissed off that Sweden wants to wage war, give away our common money, let our children go hungry \u2013 all sorts of angles with the same purpose that we should not support Ukraine materially. <\/p>\n

It can never be said often enough \u2013 the Russian subversive tentacles have had a very large influence on the decisions made in the West over the last 20 years and now we are slowly starting to shake this off but we have a long way to go.<\/p>\n

We as humans are influenced by what we hear and read and if you find out that our elected officials are corrupt and everything is unfair but that if you support a certain organization everything will get better for yourself \u2013 that is attractive. Qanon was absolutely excellent \u2013 I decided halfway through that it was a Russian psyops and sometimes you were half in it.<\/p>\n

It is a worldwide conspiracy with many sworn-in members, and the purpose is, of course, to try to break the West in order to be able to attack weaker neighbors \u2013 our world will not get better if Russia and China gain world domination, that we can be sure of.<\/p>\n

We have seen Iran, NK, H\u2026s, and Russia. Then some joined half-heartedly and some are still in the shadows. I don’t want to include China there because I think the cards we see are promising.
\nThroughout the West, discussions are heated and people are very upset about all the money we spend on Ukraine. None of all these upset people are the least bit upset that Iran and North Korea spend many times more on their support to Russia and that their populations really have it bad.<\/p>\n

We end, as usual, with a \u2013 positive \u2013 positive, Ukraine will be allowed to use F-16s and the ammunition to strike targets outside its land border and inside Russia \u2013 Stoltenberg was very clear.
\nGreat that JDAMS and long-range missiles are coming with the F-16 \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3klyj5rwqw22l<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

A little hint that although February only has 29 days this leap year, it seems there could be very high RU monthly loss figures, which is welcome and very good. Regarding ATH days, all categories lag except barbarians, but the monthly totals are very high \u2013 a steady carpet of death simply that gives a big impact on the total. The number of fallen barbarians is steadily high, which signals more screaming across the fields and less mechanized combat \u2013 RU has definitely reverted to the Tannenberg doctrine, you can see that in the loss statistics.<\/p>\n

The funny thing is that Ukraine will now start fighting mechanized, so Tannenberg meets 2024 and the probability says it will not go well for Putin.<\/p>\n

So far in the war, the biggest misjudgment was the spring offensive, and I am very curious about how the turns went, so historians should start arguing about it already now.
\nWhat we can be sure of, however, is that UA will not repeat that mistake and that the next offensive will be mechanized and violent.<\/p>\n

As someone wrote in the thread yesterday, you don\u2019t fight Russians in the Russian way, right?
\nHistorically, and in the Ukraine war, the Russians have lost spectacularly in larger movements. Since their doctrine is taken from Tannenberg, the blitzkrieg developed a few years later should reasonably still hold up as it is reformulated today in the West?<\/p>\n

Now it is the end of February 2024 and the West is slowly starting to talk about ammunition \u2013 UA has probably learned the lesson and will not start anything before they have the materiel in place because the West can promise and then not send what they promised without blinking. Without F-16, no all-out offensive (I assume they will exploit openings when the opportunity arises), so that is probably the critical line here.<\/p>\n

We must therefore sincerely hope that everything is in place so that the offensive does not start too late.<\/p>\n

Canada is now paying for the ammunition the Czechs found in someone’s emergency stockpile, so that was solved. It was close to a million shells in total?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3klyfcdw4m22q<\/a><\/p>\n

Then we see some kind of new pattern that I actually don\u2019t understand \u2013 I guess it is GLDSB that has rained down on assembly points in Donetsk and Kherson \u2013 do they really have no better targets to strike?
\nI thought the glide bombs had exactly that range but they have been fired at a front-near target in Kherson. Or more ATACMS have been delivered as I probably wrote the other day in some expression of joy?
\nAnyway \u2013 quite a good intelligence situation to be able to strike an assembly for inspection within a time window of hours in the darkest Donbass.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1760389337009529311?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One of the biggest things right now is that R in the USA has gone after Biden on Russian planted information. It hasn\u2019t really taken off yet but the source is seized for having received the information from FSB and is arrested.
\nThis should reasonably lead to resignations?<\/p>\n

The world is seriously upside down, and Russia is turning it upside down \u2013 they run Q\u2026n with widely spread conspiracies while planting information, many times false.
\nThey do all sorts of things \u2013 hack into computers and leave information or steal information. If you are a public person where the police, after an anonymous tip, find inappropriate pictures of minors on your computer, and then it leaks directly to the press, it doesn\u2019t matter that the investigation a year later concludes that they were planted. Then it\u2019s just “the elite protects their own.”<\/p>\n

The source is probably not the best but it sums up the charges that have leaned against this informant.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/edkrassen\/status\/1760298802827628711?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one came in late, now Transnistria wants to belong to Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/realdaciandraco\/status\/1760417131257004478?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If one were to summarize the war for Putin, it looks like this \u2013
\n-Russia cannot win the war, they will lose, the only question is when.
\n-Russia will be forced to leave all of Ukraine in the process.
\n-Russia has incurred heavy sanctions that will only be eased if Russia negotiates its way out of it; if Ukraine wins in a fair fight, there are few reasons for the West to ease sanctions unless RU pays Ukraine, war criminals are prosecuted, all kidnapped children are returned, all stolen goods are returned, and many other things.
\n-China has grown tired and wants to end the war.
\n\u2013 Europe (EU) has united around the flag.
\n-War materiel production in the West has now started.<\/p>\n

Putin has ruthlessly exploited all channels until the Ukraine war started. There are years of planning behind it where they fooled the West with all sorts of things.<\/p>\n

Hamas is the first to face consequences for choosing to side with Putin. Iran is likely to follow \u2013 I find it very hard to believe there will not be a popular revolution there. Belarus is on the brink.
\nHe has actually succeeded in achieving the opposite of his purpose in most things.<\/p>\n

We have seen a fascist dictatorship born and go all the way \u2013 this is how WW2 started and the difference is that Ukraine intervened. This is our time\u2019s global conflict.<\/p>\n

We have had major campaigns for the West to feel guilty for everything, sure we have a colonial legacy in Sweden to be ashamed of?<\/p>\n

It is quite clear to me that it is driven by Russia so that they, together with China, can recolonize Africa, which is among the planet\u2019s most fragile countries.<\/p>\n

It is consistently the case that all the movements that take to the streets or Twitter always criticize I\u2026el, the EU, or the USA but never China or Russia.<\/p>\n

If it is an environmental movement, Swedish nuclear power should be shut down but not a word about China from the same movement even though all the graphs tell their clear story. The only thing they did when it started to come up on the agenda was to declare that the only thing that mattered was emissions per person and then China and India were low so they avoided dealing with it.<\/p>\n

Right now, my Twitter feed is full of angry Swedes who are absolutely pissed off that Sweden wants to wage war, give away our shared money, let our children go hungry \u2013 all sorts of angles that have the same purpose: that we should not support Ukraine materially.<\/p>\n

It can never be said often enough \u2013 the Russian subversive tentacles have had a very large influence on the decisions made in the West over the past 20 years, and now we are slowly starting to shake this off, but we have a long way to go.<\/p>\n

We as humans are influenced by what we hear and read, and if you find out that our elected officials are corrupt and everything is unfair but that if you support a certain organization everything will get better for yourself \u2013 that is attractive. Q\u2026n was absolutely excellent \u2013 I decided halfway through it that it was a Russian psyops and sometimes you were half in it.<\/p>\n

It is a worldwide conspiracy with many sworn in, and the purpose is naturally to try to break the West in order to be able to jump on weaker neighbors \u2013 our world will not get better if Russia and China gain world domination, we can be sure of that.<\/p>\n

We have seen Iran, NK, H\u2026s, and Russia. Then some joined half-heartedly and some are still in the shadows. I don\u2019t want to include China there because I think the cards we see are promising.
\nThroughout the West, discussions are heated and people are very upset about all the money we are spending on Ukraine. None of these upset people are the least bit upset that Iran and North Korea spend many times more on their support for Russia and that their populations really have it bad.<\/p>\n

We end as usual with a \u2013 positive \u2013 positive, Ukraine gets to use F-16s and the ammunition to strike targets outside its land border and inside Russia \u2013 Stoltenberg was very clear.
\nCool that JDAMS and long-range missiles come with the F-16 \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3klyj5rwqw22l<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I went by the following \u2013 6-8 large export terminals and 9-10 large refineries.
\nThese accounted for the majority of export and refining.<\/p>\n

All were targeted between early January and now. I believe there are critical points that take months to repair that stop export and refining, but I guess like everyone else.<\/p>\n

It was said at the end of January that they had taken out 30%.<\/p>\n

That is exactly why I would like to see export and refinery figures going forward because that is the only thing that doesn\u2019t lie, I think \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Since when has a defensive line been intended for more than to slow down the enemy?<\/p>\n

In the absence of air and air defense, Ahkp and FAB bombs became too big a threat \u2013 we know that.<\/p>\n

If you don\u2019t think Ukraine learns from its mistakes, think again; if there is any population that seems more adaptable than MacGyver, it is Ukraine. They know that mines are an obstacle and now they have developed the tools to bypass that obstacle.<\/p>\n

Then I have to remind you that you need personnel in the bunkers for them to pose a threat, and triple lines without full staffing are not triple lines, they are ditches and small concrete lumps.<\/p>\n

Checked your answer yesterday but it was too cryptic, can you not post a video of a few hundred prisoners in Avdiivka? This is quite important to clarify actually and I take full blame if LW goes bananas and buys an Aladdin box or something.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

A couple hundred is at least 200, right?<\/p>\n

Yes, I saw that but still no video, right?
\nWe have established a system here since Gerasimov that it requires moving images with today\u2019s date for it to be accepted.<\/p>\n

Since you go against the official version, and what I have managed to find, it would be good for the historical record if you could post a video with all the prisoners, or some videos?<\/p>\n

No italics needed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

To clarify \u2013 what you posted yesterday was a quote from Geroman and he is the worst kind, and in the other link there was a video of one (1) Ukrainian prisoner they hadn\u2019t executed yet. About 199 are missing \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

As is well known, I am quite pro-Gregg but jumped on that assumption immediately because I have seen some groups of 5-6 total<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:10 \u2013 Johan No.1 A small hint that although February only has 29 days this leap year, it seems there 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