{"id":8850,"date":"2024-02-23T10:12:54","date_gmt":"2024-02-23T09:12:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:04:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:04:09","slug":"2024-02-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

\u201dTwo years all here\u201d.
\nDoesn’t feel like Putin can say that, Gerasimov has been gone for a long time.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3km2xnjr5nc2l<\/a><\/p>\n

We must also not forget all the suffering, a soldier with triple amputation will try to return to a normal life after this.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1760697425927245832?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia has fired 8,000 missiles at Ukraine and they stand strong \u2013 many countries would have thrown in the towel for less.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anno1540\/status\/1760889685360910585?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And despite 8,000 missiles fired which gives a 5 and deep red in the risk analysis, the world stands with Ukraine, in Ukraine. That goal must have kept all security officials sleepless\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1760782574178247055?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have to admit, despite my grumbling, that Sirsky has delivered so far. Now he has scrutinized the armed forces and found all those who have stayed away, which are thousands. That signals that Zelensky’s speech where he described how they would tackle various parts that worked worse was not just hot air.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrreview\/status\/1760762271507345594?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It will be a cliffhanger until the end of the month but if losses hold at this level it could be ATH and record this month again, like a stock company beating expectations. There are seven days left and on the first of March we have the results but it looks promising, growth has been good during the quarter.<\/p>\n

The heavy bombers from WW2 are today drones that can fly into a half-meter diameter window opening, I wonder if we will ever get a ground drone that replaces the tank (I don’t think so because the cannon’s recoil requires a large mass behind but maybe something recoil-less)?<\/p>\n

Then we have the big question whether RU is really short on armor or not as someone usually writes in the thread and it certainly looks that way in the losses.
\nPrevious Russian suicide offensives have always lost a lot of armor too but not this round.
\nAlso, we see a lot of unmodified T62s in prioritized (armor) brigades which is promising.
\nFewer tanks and worse tanks and presumably poorly trained crews.
\nIf I ever find the film I keep talking about I will celebrate with a Star beer, early in the war three tanks were knocked out nose to nose and behind stood an MTLB driving back and forth \u2013 like the break room in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest with shrapnel protection.
\nI have the impression that the southern front has received the older tanks, right or wrong.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1760775208212849112?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s starting to look pretty good with deliveries again now that the emergency stocks have finally been opened when the thread demanded it (megalomania diagnosed).
\nNow it\u2019s probably not long until the US votes yes to the support package but it seems confirmed that more Bradleys have arrived since they equipped 3rd Azov and one wonders if it\u2019s HIMARS ammunition that has come recently?<\/p>\n

In the US it\u2019s heating up seriously, we have already discussed that the source of Biden-gate was Russian psyops.
\nNow it\u2019s Giuliani who got all the information from FSB when he went to Ukraine and it was known but GOP ran with it anyway.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/muellershewrote\/status\/1760746702401884232?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Marjorie T G has also pushed this hard together with a couple of others \u2013 they were warned by several instances but pushed it further.
\nI would be very surprised if there are no resignations from this.
\nTo me it feels like countermeasures have been launched against the GOP rebels and that it will be effective.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/edkrassen\/status\/1760677560994976124?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now it apparently starts moving and arrests have been made of Russians (I think), Keynotestate will have to explain to us. From arrests it is usually possible to unravel a thing or two when they negotiate to avoid prison time.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1760794227930550285?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

There is a lot happening in the US right now that is positive, one must admit.<\/p>\n

Then we have this \u2013 top gear on Navalny (if one may write his name or is it \u201cthe unmentionable\u201d that applies but then people might think it\u2019s someone else, like Tankfri?), when Russian citizens who liked Navalny the unmentionable see that his family shakes hands with Biden \u2013 that should have some explosive power?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/potus\/status\/1760752933866512580?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Navalny the unmentionable\u2019s mother has let it be known that they quickly got to see the body and then the state buries the body for them without their presence. Which part of the body they got to see is unclear but it was probably some part of the foot that was not damaged maybe?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1760776223003980268?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If one tries to be -positive \u2013 positive with the troubled child USA I think it is shaking things up properly right now. That a lot of what has made rounds in the press in recent years about the Biden family can be traced to FSB is nothing less than an atomic bomb because if it can be proven that elected officials pushed certain narratives despite being warned that it was planted FSB information, they are presumably in a bad position.<\/p>\n

It also seems that UA support could become an election issue, 72% are positive to supporting Ukraine and then you can win elections by taking the lead there, right?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1760752293069082886?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nIf I may guess, I think the path the orange man has taken will be a big anticlimax for him in the election \u2013 he has said too much that supports RU and throws UA under the bus and 72% is a loss for him.<\/p>\n

Then I read in the daily losses the rumor we heard a week ago that Ukraine has loosened up on the ammunition again if you remember?
\nNow we see it in the loss figures as there are broad and high losses again similar to a pre-battle we saw before and during the spring offensive at the different fronts \u2013 which started May 4, 2023.
\nI take it as evidence that the rumor is true, they have opened the last warehouses, and that leads to the conclusion that UA is confident enough that they will get ammunition and\/or that it has already started coming (maybe).<\/p>\n

Which leads to the next conclusion that there will be a spring offensive when it now starts, F-16 should be the critical line but MXT had a thought about that which seems to be true and it looks good.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t for a second think that RU defensive lines are insurmountable \u2013 never in history has a defensive fortification held and the Russians\u2019 embarrassing excuse for a defensive line is also far from fully manned and a defense system without Russians in it is just a glorified ditch.<\/p>\n

I have come to the conclusion that if RU gets the chance, it will look like this for many years to come \u2013 they recruit from all over the world and train for 8-9 months, allocate resources with what they have, and then they have a strategic offensive reserve that they exhaust. After that, they try to hold the gained terrain, build up the next offensive reserve, and go again. Over time, they can turn this into a proxy war where they recruit heavily from Africa and MENA.<\/p>\n

This video is more than amusing \u2013 first of all, it\u2019s a grenade hit right in the engine that the soldier is talking about needing 400EUR (in rubles) to fix it, and the guys standing next to him look like Indians or Pakistanis?
\nA lousy attempt to snatch 400EUR, simply put.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1760814841806127265?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is less funny, Russian crowdfunding for Starlink,
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1760804380435984767?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But this one is good, UA now has many M113 medevac vehicles.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1760772427146047878?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I want to once and for all put to rest the discussion about the UA vs RU loss ratio (in dead!) not being 1:5, Zelensky says it clearly and unmistakably again. If you want to believe otherwise, you have to lead the argument with mistrusting Ukraine and placing higher trust in Russia \u2013 that\u2019s how it is.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/anno1540\/status\/1760891564128092484?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Since Ukraine has confirmed 60,000 \u2013 70,000 killed, that means the daily loss list is DEAD or how, stone-dead Russians \u2013 it would be nice if we could move past that too.
\nThen we have wounded, and Ukraine should absolutely have 1:3, and we might not have consensus around RU but I am of the opinion that it is 1:2 or better (worse for the Russians).<\/p>\n

Then there is this that some like to peddle, that a drone strike does not take out simple artillery.
\nWe give you this \u2013 a drone strike that takes out a howitzer.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1760809155374317857?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nWhat else do you see in this film?
\nDo you see any fire movement at all?
\nLike with Archer and Caesar?
\nOr do you see a battery that they have dug in until it is taken out?
\nHere we of course have the explanation, and we have discussed it a bit, for why RU losses are so high \u2013 and they are accurate.<\/p>\n

Failed major offensive in Bakhmut
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1760647875116110175?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And now it is legal to send the frozen money to UA, the lawyers have finished their considerations.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1760632712073765189?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is a bit funny, Belarus is worried about a UA offensive into the country. Imagine if\u2026
\nImagine if the Belarus army has contacts with the tactical mustache and his
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1760590001245450398?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

What he usually talks about in the thread, the rear troops running like mad along the ditches to escape and it went well. They were in contact with the combat leadership all the time so none were left to their fate. Those who remained in Avdiivka were those who could not be moved due to injuries and some who didn\u2019t make it out.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1760781564516987157?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For those of you who have followed the thread, you see just like I do how the underlying losses are on the rise again. It is still cloudy so the drone weapon cannot function optimally which means that other indirect capabilities have received ammunition. It is distinct counter-battery fire and rear capabilities.<\/p>\n

What should start as soon as that ammunition arrives is destroyed depots and supplies again deep behind the lines.
\nThen we are back to 2023 with the difference that UA started the counter-battery fire earlier.
\nNo one has probably missed reading that F-16s may be used against targets on Russian soil so we will likely see a broader campaign this year?<\/p>\n

And then when the pieces are in place, there will be a mech offensive and maybe some new attack directions?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a while since the bubble list was up and how the pressure cooker\u2019s walls bulge out worryingly but important dates are coming and Budanov only sleeps a few hours per night and HerrJan is looking at oil exports and other figures and saw a decline in January 2024. Now we probably shouldn\u2019t extrapolate too far on that but it will be interesting to see the numbers going forward and what effect Budanov\u2019s rampages have had.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Ukraine\u2019s grain exports are back to pre-2022 levels.<\/p>\n

I know China is negotiating behind the scenes but I see no signs of willingness to negotiate at all from Ukraine or the West. The time until the election will be exciting, I\u2019m putting an account with Cornu that Budanov has lots of fireworks ready, anything else would be malpractice now that geographical restrictions are lifted. If I\u2019m wrong, I\u2019ll open Johan No.2.<\/p>\n

Got a question from some liberation front about whether he should be marinated in gasoline or diesel, said gasoline and hope that was right.<\/p>\n

-positive-positive thus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

F-16 will probably be a game changer mainly because they will be able to take out RU aircraft at long distances, I don\u2019t have the exact range in mind but it\u2019s far beyond what RU can manage so they are like little sparrows that a condor has spotted.<\/p>\n

Yes, then they need to forward deploy LV and 1.2.3\u2026 then we will discover that RU air defense is worthless against F-16 countermeasures \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then they do get taken out and finally, as you write, they are taken from somewhere, 60-70 F-16s will be a good addition to the arsenal.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s report!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I think you have a point regarding the F-16<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Let\u2019s hope so!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 \u201dTwo years all here\u201d. Doesn’t feel like Putin can say that, Gerasimov has been gone for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"\n2024-02-23 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-23-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024-02-23 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 \u201dTwo years all here\u201d. 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