{"id":8852,"date":"2024-02-24T09:00:11","date_gmt":"2024-02-24T08:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:04:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:04:23","slug":"2024-02-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Know this was posted before but two years between the pictures and nice to run the same lineup and picture in 2024.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1761168211020505325?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We are entering 2024 and UA are more confident than ever, the sweaty forehead and the darting gaze are no longer seen. This damn war should not be spun positively even though I understand that today is the day for hero stories and tributes and that this is how we will process the war. Today I think of the soldier who chose to stay with the wounded in Avdiivka and was shot along with the wounded \u2013 a meaningless act of kindness that left a stressed-out wife and traumatized children behind who are the only ones mourning with a photo on the mantelpiece. Those fallen in Zenit are forgotten and already at Bakhmut 2023 we saw soldiers who were too far gone to return to a normal life. Countless people come out of this war broken. It is easy to forget the civilian victims, the tortured, raped, and murdered children as young as five years old. The civilians who were tortured for months in torture centers before being killed \u2013 eyes punctured with wire, castrated or with testicles torn off. Entire families wiped out \u2013 no one will ever tell their story because no one is left to tell it. Or the children who in the tens of thousands were sold into trafficking in Russia and take their own lives after years of the worst abuse and parents who break down with worry over having lost their children. At the start of the war, it was platoon-sized forces at a couple of places that stopped the Russian advance from Hostomel towards Kiev and they took 90% losses or the soldier who blew himself up along with a bridge to stop the advance.<\/p>\n

In 30 years, the chain-smoking grandfather telling war stories after a few whiskies will be the only living memory of the war in families but my god what a national trauma this is.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t know if you\u2019re allowed to post the blog\u2019s entries from the day of the invasion but I did because it\u2019s a day we can refer back to the start of the war and what we wrote that day. Some were already there at the start of the war as you can see \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/cornucopia.se\/2022\/02\/putin-forklarar-krig-mot-ukraina-inleder-anfall-med-syfte-att-utplana-ukrainas-militar-flyganfall-pagar-explosioner-i-kyjiv-och-charkiv\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Quoting someone who apparently already then wrote way too much: “Now the reporting is picking up a bit but it\u2019s damn INCREDIBLE that we are watching a textbook invasion of a country in Europe in 2022. Today thousands of Ukrainians will die.”<\/p>\n

The mistake made was probably to think that mounting losses would make the Russians reconsider, Zalizhny admitted that too. WW2 say all the doubters immediately but there are plenty of examples of wars where they took a spectacular loss and pulled back. This was supposed to be a quick smash-and-grab so it was reasonable to assume that too much death wouldn\u2019t be manageable but so far that is completely wrong.<\/p>\n

Something worth pointing out again \u2013 if you read that post and the thread you get a good picture of how that day went. I stand by that this is an EXCELLENT historical archive for historians to dig into, a group effort worth keeping alive and also among other reasons why I thought it was worth continuing together with the fact that it is our time\u2019s great global conflict playing out before us and that people feel for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ve probably already figured out that Ukraine is now doing to the Russian Air Force what they did to the Black Sea Fleet \u2013 they dominate it completely until they stop flying over Ukraine. I got the summary to one A-50, one SU-34 and possibly an IL-22 or IL-76, my money is on IL-22M since they probably fly simultaneously and witnesses reported two planes shot down.
\nI have the impression RU had 6 A-50s total at the start of the war and one was damaged in Belarus and now two are confirmed shot down. How many of the remaining three have technical faults and are grounded?
\nWe\u2019ll see when history is written what caused Russian aircraft to rain down.<\/p>\n

Cliffhanger as I said but right now it looks like artillery losses in February 2024 will be the second highest in the entire war and barbarians might be the third highest. That\u2019s pretty good work for a country that doesn\u2019t have ammunition.<\/p>\n

I remember many in the thread saying over the years (the two) that Sweden has no Gripens to spare at all for Ukraine and there was no shortage of explanatory models \u2013 how does it fit into the bigger picture that Hungary buys 4, you know who you are?<\/p>\n

We discussed about 8 to Ukraine and thought that was reasonable if I recall?
\nWe also couldn\u2019t send to Ukraine before joining NATO apparently many have claimed but why can we sell to Hungary before joining NATO?<\/p>\n

Basically, I think it\u2019s good that we get some sold at all but it\u2019s a bit Morocco about the whole thing. First two years of \u2013 “those will never come” and then Morocco gets to buy almost 1000 Bradleys and Abrams.
\nThe Hungarians probably bought them just to get them off the market so they can\u2019t be sent to Ukraine, Putin paid.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a darker Ukraine entering 2024, I don\u2019t quite know how to explain it better. In 2022 they fought for their lives and 2023 was an attempt to end the war through offensive operations.
\n2024 they are going after blood in a way that should make Putin terrified.<\/p>\n

There is no shortage of statements from representatives and the number of exploding insanely expensive facilities in Russia speaks clearly together with standing warrants for war criminals.
\nThe West has also completely dropped thoughts about negotiations and mediation, it\u2019s dead silent.
\nPutin wanted to go all in \u2013 the all-in is coming to him pretty fast right now.<\/p>\n

After the spring offensive my credibility is zero since I predicted a war end in 2023. My thought was naturally that the Azov push would decide the war last summer and then they had the autumn to realize it was over \u2013 the spring offensive was ambitious but got stuck.<\/p>\n

Therefore I give the same prediction again this year with the addition that this year I\u2019ll be right \ud83d\ude00
\nIt\u2019s very clear that Ukraine is preparing for the next blow and it\u2019s highly likely they have learned from mistakes.
\nZelensky also confirms
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1760963439483134291?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This will probably be the darkest year we have experienced but it will end the war or alternatively the darkest Donbass remains and UA can pool everything there but it is my hope that the Azov push will be enough to topple Putin and Russia turns inward.<\/p>\n

RU IS hopelessly short on armor, that is indisputable to me, here you have a transport with 30 T62s arriving in Crimea. If they had 30 T90Ms to send, we would have seen that, right?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1761009282923831587?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It is also my opinion that UA today has more tanks and above all better tanks than RU at the fronts, but that is my opinion and I have tried to piece together the totals.<\/p>\n

However, Ukraine is now stating that they have more aircraft than at the start of the war \u2013 that is significant.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kvistp\/status\/1760846557505556484?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

So at least we know that the new defense line did NOT go through Siverne and Lastochyne near Avdiivka. The delaying battle of the factory area north of the settlement in Avdiivka seems to be over \u2013 for some reason Deepstate marked it as lost too early but 3rd Azov carried out a delaying battle in the area we discussed and now seems to have retreated.<\/p>\n

At Bakhmut, Klischiivka is possibly about to be encircled but I don\u2019t think it will succeed.
\nThings are moving in the wrong direction a bit everywhere right now, let\u2019s hope the West sees the consequences of its actions play out now and learns something \u2013 this has been a real extreme in terms of a flood of bad decisions over two years.<\/p>\n

I have decided that the Orange Man is done for \u2013 just the interest on the fines he can\u2019t pay is 100,000 USD\/day. I am quite skeptical about the process overall BUT he deserves it so I support it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/occupydemocrats\/status\/1761146126387097654?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t forget that it is now being rolled out that Trump went after his political opponents with fabricated evidence from the FSB and proportionate response applies. When he was president, he launched the entire state apparatus with the sole purpose of eliminating political opponents.<\/p>\n

1.2.3\u2026 and now we have proof that Russia is paying the fines \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Bill Barr is probably starting to feel the heat,
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/clearing_fog\/status\/1761175503397109847?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This just has to bring down Johnsson, a solid groundwork going through everyone who donated and then finding connections \u2013 a full-time job for someone.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1761018703997522128?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here the Orange Man tries to win over colored voters, you can guess how that goes, he is completely unpredictable \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/bidenhq\/status\/1761214656687865928?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/acyn\/status\/1761213226220757347?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

So I\u2019m ringing the bell \u2013 Trump will not win the 2024 election. I would gladly see Nikki Haley as president but Biden works too.
\nIn a week or two the support package will be voted through is my second guess and then comes that \u201cweapon-winning support package\u201d that someone in the thread usually talks about but never needs to be delivered.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to be -positively- positive on a day like this when thoughts go to the tortured, murdered, desecrated little children and the parents who took their own lives after being forced to watch their children tortured, desecrated and finally murdered but Ukraine is doing everything right right now and is heading towards its smashing victory in 2024.<\/p>\n

The end of the tunnel is not too far away, I need some help because I was looking for betting sites where I could put a few thousand on the war ending this year but found none if anyone has any. I want to become a millionaire now that everyone thinks Ukraine can\u2019t win the war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:54 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

If they hadn\u2019t titled it \u201cthe Tid\u00f6 parties\u2019 harmful climate policy\u201d it would have been better, that risks taking focus away from the central issue which is Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Some countries have probably reduced to almost zero and others have continued their purchases?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Erik14 appeared in the comment section on February 27, 2022 I saw, you were early indeed \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, I just wrote below that you came in on Feb 27, 22.<\/p>\n

I apparently started with shorter posts and then at some point they became longer posts.
\nI\u2019m looking at the first days and the thread was pretty accurate even then, I must admit.<\/p>\n

At some point I was accused of writing 60% of the comments in the thread \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yes, you handled it brilliantly, sometimes I don\u2019t even get a post out and then it has to be a jump.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+++++<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Last on this of course but the Gripen training is done \u201cintroduction training\u201d, unclear if you can fight with it and it will be \u201csplash Russian air force\u201d in two weeks \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3km65edjxjw24<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:14 \u2013 Johan No.1 Know this was posted before but two years between the pictures and nice to run the 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