{"id":8860,"date":"2024-02-28T10:50:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T09:50:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-02-28-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T08:05:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T06:05:30","slug":"2024-02-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-02-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-02-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

You may have noticed that there are no longer any analyses of the battles \u2013 that\u2019s because UA will retreat until they get the damn \ud83e\udd2c\ud83e\udd2c\ud83e\udd2c ammunition. There\u2019s no point in going through the latest retreat here because it makes no one happy. Right now they are winning the war with Mavic-3 drones, which is somewhat sensational. Everything seems to be happening now if you interpret the signals correctly, but maybe one should be a bit cautious until it has landed in Ukraine?<\/p>\n

When Ukraine opened the stockpiles, they have an expiration date and we can only pray to our gods that resupplies arrive before it runs out completely.<\/p>\n

It also seems that it could get messy soon up in northern Luhansk and it would be really unfortunate if they secured their northern flank at the Oskil river, or if it is a stream.<\/p>\n

The equipment that has arrived so far of qualified systems has largely been PR, beta testing, or symbolic, and the US sent scrap to some extent, tube artillery lacking guidance systems and a bunch of Bradleys that were in poor condition, older Abrams and F-16s that were modernized in 2005.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/cybersoroka\/status\/1761922461820436756?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The West \u2013 they do not give UA ammunition and weapons to win, and now that UA is finally against the ropes, everyone goes out and says they will not send troops except Macron who is fully committed to the Foreign Legion. I think Macron half-slept during the meeting and will understand that no one else wants to send anything and will back down as only a Frenchman can. Apparently Kristersson has uttered the forbidden words \u201cwe will not send troops to Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Netherlands do not rule out troops either, so two countries understand how it works.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/motishort\/status\/1762592497648251365?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

What has made half of the Western leaders make these statements without any pretext?
\nThis is just as bad as during the NATO meeting when everyone called UA ungrateful \u2013 total collapse in strategic communication.<\/p>\n

Have they learned absolutely nothing; like a damn adult daycare \ud83e\udd2c
\nSometimes I\u2019m ashamed to live in the West (when I\u2019m home on vacation for a month) and this is one of those days.
\nI must seriously ask this question \u2013 don\u2019t our leaders in the West understand what strategic communication is and its importance?<\/p>\n

They give Putin a handful of straws to hold on to for another year here by guaranteeing that no soldiers from the West will set foot on Ukrainian soil. I understand if Zelensky is getting more than a little tired of the leaders in the West.<\/p>\n

So it has now finally been said openly \u2013 some in the West are afraid of a Ukrainian victory. I also believe that because the signs are so endlessly many. As soon as Ukraine starts gaining momentum, the West pulls the rug out from under them. Ukraine knows who they are and it will be fun for them going forward when UA is involved and new alliances are formed after this era\u2019s global conflict.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chakhoyanandrew\/status\/1762171080939037127?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Zelensky is clear \u2013 2024 will decide this war and if we do not get support from the West it will not be a UA win. This has never been stated before so the situation is serious.<\/p>\n

We sit and applaud as country after country withdraws visas for Russians but now I\u2019m starting to understand that we shouldn\u2019t applaud \u2013 a whole bunch of these countries are where Russian draft dodgers have fled and the reason they withdraw visas is presumably because Russia wants back its mobilizable reserve to be killed. Now I want to hear the peace movements, Amnesty, RK and the UN go out broadly and fight for this vulnerable protected group. You almost have to look hard to find a worse end to life \u2013 forcibly mobilized to Ukraine is like Dante\u2019s Inferno before they are freed by a Ukrainian bullet or take their own lives. But of course, we will never hear a peep about it.<\/p>\n

We were supposed to keep an eye on two things \u2013 that UA starts to retreat, which they are doing, and RU mobilization. Now signs are starting to come that RU is positioning itself for some form of mobilization after Putin\u2019s re-election. You know my position on the matter \u2013 RU cannot carry out a larger mobilization of a million or more because then there will be a revolution.
\nHowever, they can probably mobilize their 300,000 again and prepare the next strategic offensive reserve?<\/p>\n

It is not yet clear to me if this round of strategic reserves fought better or if it was only the ammunition shortage that decided in Avdiivka but RU should now have enough combat-experienced instructors for training?<\/p>\n

Maybe I shouldn\u2019t post stuff like this but this film hit me straight in the gut, there is no death but it is an I..sk family under surveillance by H..as on October 7. I think that at best they managed to stay as calm as the father and yet the whole family was murdered later \u2013 this is actually hard to take in as a parent. Now it is not UA related but it became clear to me because it could have been me with my family sitting there completely unable to protect my children. It\u2019s easy to sit behind a keyboard and support Russia, H\u2026as or Is..s but this is what it looks like. Sure, the West has waged war but it is not the rule but the exception that it is war crimes. Sure, Ukraine commits war crimes but it is light years more humane than the Russian darkness and every sane person must support Ukraine in this conflict \u2013 it hardly gets closer than this good-evil, it would be Lord of the Rings otherwise.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/drelidavid\/status\/1762035603065942076?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember that it was South Korea\u2019s shells that enabled the spring offensive?
\nThere were 300,000
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sumlenny\/status\/1762062362952036861?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nI have the impression that the EU will send 300,000 before the end of March and that the Czechs\u2019 total was a million?<\/p>\n

Taking the victory a bit prematurely but there are some confirmed \u2013 artillery will be the second highest ever in February and barbarians will be the third highest ever. Many others are high except strv which strengthens the assumption that RU is seriously short on them. First they start salvaging everyone they can in Dnepr and then losses plummet and lots of T62s are seen in prioritized armored brigades and in some cases they are not even modified but such as cleared in depots. Pretty good fighting by a Ukraine without ammunition.<\/p>\n

There is high pressure from bots and trolls in my Twitter feed and I think you read hit-pieces for Russia mostly everywhere now.
\nUA explains to us that it is Maidan-3 that is going supersonic until the election.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1762504522876821580?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Another influence operation that is absolutely obvious is the blocking of UA grain exports while RU has been allowed to flood the EU with cheap grain \u2013 exactly how they have managed this I cannot understand because I thought grain was included in the sanctions but right now Poland is complicating things for UA grain but welcoming Russian \u2013 feels like RU is getting quite a lot of help here from the EU not thinking things through at all.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1762061407443394613?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In Aftonbladet it said that NATO is more dangerous than Putin and another newspaper illustrated the NATO victory with a photo of the opposition \u2013 nice that we will soon join NATO so we can avoid this.<\/p>\n

Elon does not deny himself and Starlink is now popular with the Russian army.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/cossackgundi\/status\/1762572734037377281?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But countermeasures have been taken, someone is scrutinizing Johnsson with a magnifying glass right now
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/politicsusa46\/status\/1762602359547412962?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

They are starting to sort out the mess with the Polish grain protesters,
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nastasiaklimash\/status\/1762576454879965673?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then UA war criminals are being prosecuted continuously which is very positive \u2013 they simply have an effective justice system.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kvistp\/status\/1762476840642334724?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One should not underestimate China\u2019s and Russia\u2019s influence over international organizations. All employees are keen on keeping their jobs and only a minority dare to stand up for right and wrong. Every time someone from this minority does the right thing and manages to expose a scandal in the media, that person usually gets fired and the boss hires someone who will not cause trouble. Over time, these organizations become very loyal. Meanwhile, while the West has financed and encouraged employees from developing countries, Russia has spent time controlling the organizations for its own purposes instead. Now in this war, everything has come to a head but Guterres smiling and shaking hands with Lavrov a few months ago says almost everything you need to know about the UN. Then the fact that they managed to train child soldiers in Belarus didn\u2019t help matters.<\/p>\n

Sweden is not the best in the world at marketing but we are the best in the world at manufacturing, that the CV90 survives against two T90s is almost a sensation. That a hit on the ammunition only causes a puff of smoke should make the whole world drop their jaws and say \u201cwoow\u201d \u2013 all the PR department needs to do now is collect data and book plane tickets \u2013 the world will want to buy CV90 this marvel that beats the T90M.<\/p>\n

The world will also want to buy Archer which Ukraine has praised as the next generation artillery that does not yet exist.<\/p>\n

And guess what they will think about Gripen.
\nWe must start filling order books to save industrial jobs in the coming recession.<\/p>\n

It is a trade-off between beta testing and PR against having your weapon systems not working and the whole world seeing it live. Russia has a systemic defect in all its technology \u2013 it is simply inferior to the West and they know it. Most Western weapon platforms have performed as expected or better and all Swedish weapon systems have excelled.<\/p>\n

The fact that Russian technology is inferior also means that they cannot conduct any major war in a few years when they have ramped up production, the fundamental flaw cannot be fixed that quickly.<\/p>\n

-positive \u2013 positive, RU stops export of fuel (exactly what I don\u2019t know) for six months. Budanov gets a reward for his weekend work.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/olddog100ua\/status\/1762405829477597473?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nBudanov has somewhat of a special position in UA I think because he has good contact with the USA and does not get caught up in political internal struggles which is good. After the war it will be fun to read about all they have done that we don\u2019t know about.<\/p>\n

Storm Shadow production is apparently going to start at \u201cwar economy\u201d level which is good, they caused enormous damage.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/colbybadhwar\/status\/1762552303255470318?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Completely missed that RU attacked a US base in Syria in 2018. Guess how that went \ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/doggehhh\/status\/1762398457329807799?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:11 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks! \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Yes, you know I agree when it comes to the West\u2019s deliveries. Too little and too late.<\/p>\n

Still, they seem to be terrified of crossing red lines. As soon as Macron mentioned troops in Ukraine, the Russians started with empty threats and immediately everyone else backed off. Really cowardly and totally idiotic to go with that message.<\/p>\n

As you pointed out. It would have been enough to say that it is something that must be discussed. Instead, everyone competes to be the first to say it will not happen.<\/p>\n

Clumsy in every way and they paint themselves into a corner. The day they actually send in troops, Russia will immediately say that we cannot be trusted.<\/p>\n

There seems to be no sensible coordination whatsoever. I wish the leaders could talk to each other and agree on what to say (and that they get help from someone who understands strategic communication).<\/p>\n

We just have to keep our fingers crossed that they don\u2019t have to back down too far before the ammunition shortage is resolved.
\nIn the meantime, I hope we see more planes going down, more ships sinking and of course more burning refineries and weapons factories.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

A brief overall deepening can be found here:<\/p>\n

\u201dWhy US Troops Fought Wagner Mercenaries in Syria\u201d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=CxaY6v7Lduo<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

You would be president and I vice president, how many wars that would have caused then \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

A bit puzzled that the refineries have stopped burning\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:38 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

\ud83d\ude42 Better to win with a quick and intense war and have long periods of peace in between instead of dragging it out with a lot of unnecessary suffering in the meantime.<\/p>\n

Yes, there is not much point in holding back. The faster they are knocked out the faster the Russian economy crashes. That will probably happen!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, a lot doesn\u2019t add up and hasn\u2019t added up since the start of the war.
\nScholz has gotten a red card from me.
\nMacron wants to sell weapons and does what is required.
\nUK doesn\u2019t half-ass but is far from all-in.<\/p>\n

Half of the EU is now ordering weapons and ammunition for themselves so there is nothing left to buy for Ukraine on contract.<\/p>\n

All planned scrappings that UA wanted to buy but are not allowed to buy \u2013 it drives you crazy.<\/p>\n

The latest failure with strategic communication\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:06 \u2013 Johan No.1 You may have noticed that there are no longer any analyses of the battles \u2013 that\u2019s 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