{"id":8917,"date":"2024-03-09T08:46:28","date_gmt":"2024-03-09T07:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:30:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:30:54","slug":"2024-03-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-09"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>There is an enormous amount happening right now, if you remember a few weeks ago we hinted that something &#8220;is in the works&#8221; and it has only increased since then. It will be fun after the war when history is written and one can start connecting the loose ends.<\/p>\n<p>The geopolitical atomic bomb has been detonated and the end of this has been clear for a long time, which we have discussed many times over the years \u2013 Russia is a pariah and will be despised much like Germany after WW2, and Ukraine will enter the EU warmth and become a nurturing member, probably in the long term a real powerhouse that we will be grateful for.<\/p>\n<p>This is what reality looks like when the West did not send ammunition, trench groups low on near PV doing the best they can. It is absolutely remarkable that the West has dawdled with ammunition and materiel but now this is behind us. We can count ourselves lucky that the Ukrainian shooters are the best in the world as someone in the thread often writes. A basement in an open field where protection is earth mounds and some wall with two anti-tank rockets.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn7ah4nvl22g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn7ah4nvl22g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I must admit that we have just witnessed democracy at its best \u2013 S and SD were opponents to NATO but when they realized that the population was positive towards it, they turned. Sure, you can hijack certain issues but when it really matters, democracy is the path to the most reasonable solution that is best for the majority society.<br \/>\nBiden&#8217;s 1941 speech felt hopeful, the giant is beginning to awaken and it apparently struck a chord with broad layers which is positive.<\/p>\n<p>Trump embarrassed himself completely of course, I understand that MAGA does not think so but this was elementary school level.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn6ijpmhnd2w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn6ijpmhnd2w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>I get the feeling that Ukraine&#8217;s defensive fight is working \u2013 at Krunky and Robotyne the Russians are unable to advance. At Avdiivka a Russian in the video below says they have peaked and that Ukraine is even regaining terrain in some places.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1766108481231180113?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1766108481231180113?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Up in northern Luhansk we do not see much offensive towards Oskil.<\/p>\n<p>We are relatively sure that RU has used up its strategic reserves as they had to empty Belarus of Russian units and have withdrawn units from northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n<p>You who read the thread have known since the turn of the year that there will be a Ukrainian mech offensive this year. It is not a guess, or it was a qualified guess until Zelensky and the combat leadership themselves confirmed it. We also know that they have an offensive strategic reserve estimated at 10-11 brigades.<\/p>\n<p>Then I hope you do not miss that they also have existing offensive capability on all fronts and that this offensive reserve is strategic and can be deployed anywhere.<\/p>\n<p>I guess that Ukraine&#8217;s citizens can endure one more major offensive in this war but it must go better than last year. Those who are convinced that Ukraine will get stuck must first explain how RU has been able to advance and then explain why FPV drones in the hundreds of thousands are not deadly. And then explain why 2 million drones are not an existential threat. And why strike aircraft or some million 155mm shells are not a threat.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine&#8217;s counterbattery artillery is ENORMOUSLY effective and is now decimating RU artillery hard ahead of their own mech offensive.<\/p>\n<p>UA should also get 15,000 \u2013 20,000 armored vehicles so they can drive up splinter-protected to the attack objective. In the spring offensive 2023 they chose to save the vehicles and then sacrificed lives instead. I have pushed this for a while because this is how the war is won \u2013 you have to take terrain and sacrificing vehicles instead of lives is preferable.<\/p>\n<p>Not all vehicles will need to be delivered but if they have golden pants they can wash away armored vehicles against recaptured terrain. It would be unfortunate if these do not arrive.<br \/>\nEverything is in storage in Europe gathering dust and it will never need to be used because Ukraine takes the hit.<\/p>\n<p>I have some suspicion that France has started delivering splinter-protected vehicles and the ammunition that arrived now before the Czech initiative&#8217;s ammunition arrives in a few weeks. I have no evidence for this other than France&#8217;s course change but SOMEONE has started delivering what Ukraine needs and no one wonders who it is except me it seems \ud83d\ude00<br \/>\nIf they are ready to send troops it should be preceded by large deliveries of materiel and ammunition with the hope that these troops never need to be sent.<br \/>\nDenmark was first out to open the readiness stocks and send unit-equipped materiel, France maybe second?<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1766254115875958826?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1766254115875958826?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then we can assume on good grounds that Bulgaria and Greece are sending old Eastern materiel from storage right now.<\/p>\n<p>It may be that other countries have sent quietly, I don&#8217;t know, but Ukraine received 8,500 armored vehicles during 2023 and they have lost very little of this vehicle fleet and I am quite sure that quite a lot is coming to them right now that we do not hear about.<\/p>\n<p>Saw yesterday that South Korea will retire its F4 Phantom fleet \u2013 why don&#8217;t they give them to Ukraine?<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/korea_defense\/status\/1765988577479946710?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/korea_defense\/status\/1765988577479946710?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Then RU has started mass-producing FAB-1500 bombs so it is damn urgent when it comes to getting strike aircraft to Ukraine. Gripen must be included here because this unpleasant weapon must be prevented.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1766028334469722193?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1766028334469722193?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>For Ukraine to be able to go on a mech offensive, FAB bombers must be denied flight time.<\/p>\n<p>Gripen can become the critical materiel needed to find the optimal combo in the constant whack-a-mole so Sweden should not dawdle too long with delivery. The opposition is for it and the government is for it so now it is just a matter of sending.<\/p>\n<p>If the West wastes 2024 it will be a serious situation for real. France has understood where this is heading and all other countries in the West need to do is follow suit \u2013 tap into readiness stocks and send splinter-protected vehicles to Ukraine, unit-equipped or from storage.<\/p>\n<p>I see very clearly that Putin is continuing with his building blocks to destabilize the West. Moldova has itself gone out and warned that a coup is planned there for example.<\/p>\n<p>In the Red Sea there is an ecological disaster now \u2013 where is the outcry from the world&#8217;s environmental organizations, WHO, UN and all the others?<br \/>\nThe ship that sank has wiped out the shrimp (does it look like?), no more shrimp sandwiches \ud83e\udd2c<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/osint613\/status\/1766030202637803803?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/osint613\/status\/1766030202637803803?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The fact is that piracy in the Red Sea together with this ecological disaster that risks wiping out the fauna gets very little news coverage. Japanese whaling ships drew much more criticism than this when it happened.<br \/>\nWhy isn&#8217;t Greenpeace in the Red Sea boarding the Iranian ships that enable this ecological disaster?<br \/>\n(yes I know they want to survive but I want to put it in perspective).<\/p>\n<p>I am so incredibly concerned that all organizations always have Russia as a blind spot. Environmental bombing of the Red Sea should provoke the highest possible reaction from these organizations.<\/p>\n<p>Iran has not yet played its last card, we can be sure of that even though I..el has belatedly realized how thoroughly deceived they have been by Russia, I must admit it was more than naively done when the world also warned them and I..el is not known for this type of mistake directly.<\/p>\n<p>Houthi shoots rockets and flies drones daily, and there are three Iranian ships in the Red Sea supplying the land batteries with target coordinates.<br \/>\nSinking these ships on a dark night should reasonably be diplomatically and politically possible?<br \/>\nI think so?<br \/>\nThen the commander captain of the USS Eisenhower gets fired for drinking on duty and getting carried away and diplomatic apologies to Iran and China?<\/p>\n<p>Could it be that Macron manages to read the room?<br \/>\nMacron has done his two rounds and cannot be re-elected, 70% do not like him.<br \/>\nLe Pen is popular and a year after the election it was considered that she would have won if the election were today.<br \/>\nMacron therefore has nothing to lose by taking this fight he is now engaged in.<br \/>\nFrance also has quite big problems with migration and they see, just like everyone else, that Russia is positioning itself to repeat 2015 multiplied by ten.<br \/>\nThen they have increased orders to their arms industry and certainly something else positive. Their position in the EU will definitely be strengthened by this and Germany is currently seriously declining together with the USA.<br \/>\nImagine if the EU manages to sort this out and China is helpful with a passive USA and Germany \u2013 then the power order in the West will probably change as well?<\/p>\n<p>I have already sounded the gong that the orange man cannot win the election in November as I believe the GOP is divided but the D will vote for Biden as one man because Trump is worse.<br \/>\nThen I thought his private life would collapse but if Musk steps in and takes the whole bill, that is a completely different matter, it was an interesting development to say the least.<\/p>\n<p>However, it is a very real problem that the USA has to wrestle with and the EU should be very careful not to end up in the same situation.<br \/>\nI read the other day that some well-known opposition politician believed that Sweden should increase migration to the country Sweden. Such things immediately alienate a very large part of the Swedish citizens now in the aftermath of 2015 and push them to the extremes.<br \/>\nThen as a political party you can choose to try to dismantle agriculture and electricity supply further and push the last ones over to the fringe parties when electricity prices eat up the entire bank account.<br \/>\n&#8211; shape up all parties because these are wartime and then it is time to be both boss and leader.<\/p>\n<p>It is so infinitely clear now what Putin is trying to push through and EVERYTHING we guessed is true, and a bit more. We had not previously anticipated that Iran would attack Pakistan for example, that was off script.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s stance in this is so far positive but the longer the war goes on the higher the risk, right?<\/p>\n<p>I am beginning to be worried about Africa actually because down here everyone is burning pro-Russian now and there is not much you can do about it unfortunately. Good luck West trying to sort out this mess in West Africa which is brewing.<br \/>\nNow I understand why Morocco got nearly 1000 Bradleys and Abrams because they are an ally in a sea of Wagner now.<\/p>\n<p>Poland has learned from the Ukraine war not to build bridges \u2013 ferries are what counts.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine has attacked the factory facility that upgrades the A-50 AWACS plane.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3knaigd23ac2g\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3knaigd23ac2g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>For the archive, we discussed this yesterday but a direct hit with an Archer that does not become a mushroom cloud explosion \u2013 black magic.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn6vkafy422y\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kn6vkafy422y<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Switzerland has apparently managed to tow a legislative change through its political system where they can freeze and confiscate funds for countries that wage offensive wars if I understood correctly?<br \/>\nThe law feels quite tailored for Russia and guess if a large-size mash jug oligarch has dollars hidden in Switzerland \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<p>What I have heard about Zelensky&#8217;s meeting in Turkey is that he said the only one who wants and needs a ceasefire is Putin \u2013 that feels good.<\/p>\n<p>I am of the opinion that Putin has blinked \u2013 most recently Patrushev who screams that the West is now at war with Russia and that it is cheating.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/tassagency_en\/status\/1765722132955136220?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/tassagency_en\/status\/1765722132955136220?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It will be so infinitely fun to see Russia sitting and crying loudly at the UN and begging to at least keep Moscow thanks. Putin will go down in history but not as he intended and all three are probably deceased before the year ends because a hurricane is on its way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>11:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n<p>I want to claim that Gripen can be serviced in, for example, the Czech Republic and that, as you say, the ground crew learned it during conscription \u2013 the plane was developed so that a conscript could handle it.<\/p>\n<p>The pilots have completed their &#8220;introduction training&#8221; and anything can hide behind that word.<\/p>\n<p>I have become a bit burned over the years here in my faith in the West but the right thing would have been that UA now has pilots who are fully trained on Gripen from Sweden and the Czech Republic.<\/p>\n<p>I have the impression that 8 is a good number, don\u2019t know why \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-0\">\n<h2>12:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n<p>If you, like me, need a reason to break out the fox poison whiskey and the star beer, here you have it, Perpetua\u2019s loss list is running wild \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1766415866562777257?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w\" rel=\"nofollow ugc\">https:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1766415866562777257?s=46&amp;t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Thanks!<br \/>\nGood if things are moving in Switzerland. Also like the UK\u2019s latest idea to lend out the Russian frozen funds to Ukraine, if more countries join in it would make a huge difference.<\/p>\n<p>If Gripen arrives soon we\u2019ll have to rename tough Uffe.. \ud83d\ude04<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"import-comment import-comment-level-1\">\n<h3>15:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n<p>Yeah, damn! Looks like 1:8 or something like that!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>10:00 \u2013 Johan No.1 There is an enormous amount happening right now, if you remember a few weeks ago we 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