{"id":8921,"date":"2024-03-10T08:20:51","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T07:20:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:31:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:31:43","slug":"2024-03-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1766488100539171148?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is heavy, only one of the people survived Azovstal \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1766105782955712729?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now everything is like autumn 2022 or spring 2023 when you follow in real time the startup of the next big offensive. We will not hear anything because Ukraine got badly burned when the Russians had their battle plan for morning coffee the day after they gave it to the parliament.
\nThey also tried during 2023 to convince the West that it was worth supporting them, they no longer need to now that Macron has become un-French.<\/p>\n

The feeling I get is that the West is currently sending a lot to Ukraine but nothing is communicated. Only the Germans still run that list.
\nWhen I sat and summarized what was in the warehouses a few months ago to show the thread that these 15,000 \u2013 20,000 hard vehicles Europe can muster on its own without the USA, it was Italy, France, Greece, and Bulgaria, if I remember correctly, that had enough for that.
\nItaly’s largest tank depot is emptied by the way and I suspect that Greece, Bulgaria, and France have train transports eastward.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3knazruyuzk2d<\/a><\/p>\n

Suddenly it happens, probably we will, just like in 2023, be able to follow the pre-fighting and reconnaissance battles until we consider it the start of the offensive and then the world’s historians have to accept it just like with May 4, 2023. It will be difficult for Ukraine to surprise, so therefore there will be an offensive start in several places and brigades will get a window to relate to as last year.<\/p>\n

The Kerch Bridge has now been attacked twice, once with SS and once with naval drones. We can assume that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge has now begun. Do you remember the Antonovsky Bridge? It took about a month before they cut it?<\/p>\n

We should not dismiss landings because we and NL have delivered a large number of Combat Boat 90s and there are all kinds of other floating vessels they use for their naval raids.<\/p>\n

Then we must not forget new attack vectors provided the West does not give yellow cards but that the oil industry is burning suggests a course change.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has just received a frigate also from Turkey.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1766138691355824511?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The liberation acts in Russia continue, an A-50 is said to have been destroyed in the drone raids against the facility that upgrades them. We can then assume that this unit was not deployed but either was to be upgraded or was finished
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chuckpfarrer\/status\/1766561368486858880?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then another LNG pipeline exploded due to a technical fault. There were some who thought I was exaggerating how much of RU’s refinery and export capacity had been decimated but then we haven’t talked about this after Russia stopped exports for six months which at least I think is significant \u2013 Ukraine has reduced Russian export capacity by 100% for (at least) six months, feel like I was right with my pathetic 50% \ud83d\ude00
\nI have noted that they have switched to oil depots for the war and LNG recently, whatever that means. Large depots on the Russian side of the border should be the next step in choking off fuel supply to the war and we have heard about 2-3 knocked out in recent weeks.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1766700278969942396?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nThe attacks on the oil industry thus continue.<\/p>\n

Then I want to point out that Ukraine does not need ATACMS, they went after the airbase in Taganrog with self-made weapons and since it is an A-50 base and full of ahkp and advanced aircraft it is protected by the air defense that remains. You remember that RU pulled out quite a bit of air defense from Ukraine to protect exactly these bases.
\nThe conclusion is that Ukraine can strike the army and air bases located on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine and which have been spared the entire war because the West decided so.
\nNow Ukraine has that capability within the country and it will be Armageddon because the West’s yellow cards only apply to Western rockets.<\/p>\n

The pre-fighting against the rear is gigantic right now, the highest day ever in the war according to samuelstenlund was yesterday.
\nThey are now knocking out the Russians’ artillery ahead of their own UA mechanized offensive.<\/p>\n

UA counterbattery fire is superior, they have gotten artillery radar and HIMARS, Archer, Caesar are suitable for this task. RU has lost so many crews and guns that they cannot regroup in time due to inexperienced crews and then they are easy prey \u2013 an excellent capability where Ukraine has the Russian artillery under dismantling. We know from Covert Cabal that the depots are starting to get empty.<\/p>\n

They will also knock out RU front-near depots and starve them of maintenance again.<\/p>\n

Then I think we will see the drone swarms unleashed over the poor trench Russians a few days before the mechanized forces advance. That will be the new violence in 2024.<\/p>\n

Then it ends when the Russians have had enough, if the Azov push is not enough, UA will retake its land one potato field at a time but it is my conviction that when Crimea is isolated and it is only a matter of time before it falls then RU will be close to the point where they have had enough.<\/p>\n

Orban, Erdogan, Slovakia and Scholz are talking about negotiations right now and the Russians are starting to launch the rumor that Russia is at war with the West. If you want to interpret that positively, they are starting to build a description of the situation that allows them to withdraw but then I am diagnosed positive-positive as well.<\/p>\n

Their big problem is that now that they chose to go all in instead of negotiating their way out of this mess in time, Ukraine will continue with the liberation acts in Russia even after they have left Ukraine. They may have one chance left to convince the West to swap the 1991 borders in exchange for Ukraine keeping in line with threats of a revoked EU membership but that chance has an expiration date when the next UA offensive starts. It is possible to interpret the West’s newfound integrity and willingness to do right either as a pawn in a negotiation game or as uncompromising \u2013 who knows\u2026<\/p>\n

If I have understood Putin’s negotiating position correctly, he still thinks he can threaten his way to a ceasefire and then he has not succeeded in reading the room at all.<\/p>\n

At the same time as Zelensky stated after his Turkey visit that the only one who wants a ceasefire and needs it is Putin, the pope goes out and thinks UA should capitulate (so incredibly shocking!) and this comes after Orban, Erdogan and Slovakia have started raising the issue as the most important \u2013 Putin has certainly blinked but he is still too arrogant and thinks he has cards left to play.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/tweetforanna\/status\/1766525029443871124?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then the USA has seriously started going after banks that deal with the Russians.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/billbrowder\/status\/1766386965652353463?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

2023 was supposed to be the year the war ended, but the West dawdled as usual. Right now, I get the feeling that the West has been doing what is necessary since the turn of the year, and to me, that means the war will end this year.<\/p>\n

Yes, UA still cannot sink Russian transport ships carrying weapons or oil (even empty ones), even though the Houthis cut internet cables and sink ships in the Red Sea, so the diagnosis hasn’t fully lifted yet, but I believe enough is now being done for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

We’ll see if UA gets a yellow card regarding interfering with the election; that would be unfortunate.<\/p>\n

Regarding all those organizations that treat Russia as a blank spot, you know which ones, Russia and China have played it quite cleverly. They have let the West pay for all these organizations and then have come in with a fraction of what we paid in direct bribes and now fully own them. Hats off, actually, and more than naively from the West, but maybe a course correction is on the way?<\/p>\n

Russia had prepared well and still has many advantages. That UA is not allowed to target Russian civilian maritime traffic is strange, for example, and that the Pope comes out supporting the genocidal is also significant.<\/p>\n

Everything was rigged in Putin’s favor. Remember how this started: Germany and France promised that Putin would not attack, then there was a year of proposals that Ukraine should cede land and that it would be unethical to give them weapons, followed by a year of far too little, too late.<\/p>\n

There are still countries in Europe that believe they can get away with doing nothing and do not understand that it is 1938-1939 all over again.<\/p>\n

The spring offensive of 2023 was a big disappointment, but reasonably, the West must have learned from that mistake and now is resourcing Ukraine sufficiently for this year’s offensive; anything else would be negligence.<\/p>\n

Denmark was first to tax emergency stockpiles and deployed materiel, then France followed, and a couple of countries give and keep quiet.<\/p>\n

All this hatred against the USA and the West, our decadence, original sin, and that we are generally lousy \u2013 are there ever any who flee from the West to other countries?<\/p>\n

Or do people flee from these other countries to us in the West?<\/p>\n

Russia’s subversive activities during the Cold War were absolutely enormous, but through their BRICS engagement and other involvements, they have managed to drive up a sentiment against the West that is quite strong. It is quite disturbing to see how quickly colleagues have become pro-Russian down here in West Africa over the past year, and these are the world’s most fragile countries.<\/p>\n

Now our commitment extends to the 1991 borders, but I do not oppose Russia being broken up into a number of new countries as Ukraine seeks, so that calm settles over the West when their subversive activities disappear.<\/p>\n

Everything is upside down right now, and the purpose is naturally to awaken broad layers of the population. You remember the video with obvious incitement against a Jewish man where the police just stood and watched. Then there was a man with an English flag who was arrested beside a pro-Israel demonstration, which had Hamas flags.
\nNow a person has been arrested for holding a sign with the text “Hamas are terrorists.” They are a terror-designated organization\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/incmonocle\/status\/1766475246423392397?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It is really time for the West to become intolerant of the intolerant in order to be tolerant \u2013 and that is what we are now seeing with France.<\/p>\n

Scholz started talking about negotiated peace at the same time as Orban, Erdogan, and the Pope, so he is out. Apparently also challenged now
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/chrisschmitz\/status\/1766480118774403117?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And the UK openly challenges him \u2013 “we’ll send all SS if you just give us Taurus”.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1766447896616996914?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Never forget that Maidan 3 is going full throttle while Putin imprisons all opposition in the country, so there is an enormous positive bias for Russia in the reporting right now. Just the fact that Putin, through proxies, initiates peace talks while Macron shows some elan speaks volumes. We have a way to go here, and of course, a Ukrainian breakthrough would speed up the process considerably.<\/p>\n

It probably hasn’t escaped anyone that the USA and France are sending over 1,000 JDAMs to UA \u2013 if they work well for the Russians, they should work just as well for UA, “bunker busters”.<\/p>\n

Then we have these from France, proximity fuse additions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/togajano21\/status\/1766406176646840756?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

These are new times \u2013 do you remember when we cheered that Ukraine managed to land an FPV drone on the radar dish of an A-50 in Belarus earlier?<\/p>\n

Now there are clouds of autonomous drones carpet bombing entire airfields \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

And we’ve only seen the beginning if we are to believe Ukraine’s production figures.<\/p>\n

I guess Putin is starting to have trouble sleeping this week before the election (unless the West has relapsed into its addiction and forced Ukraine to do nothing because Budanov has enough of drones and saboteurs).<\/p>\n

If losses continue at this pace, and UA has just received ammunition, then March 2024 will be a new record month for Russian losses, 360 artillery pieces knocked out in 9 days is quite an achievement given ammunition shortages. Tank and air defense losses are low, which signals shortages and busts the myth of endless stockpiles.<\/p>\n

2023 is behind us, and 2024 will go just as well as we hope now that ammunition, advanced aircraft, and heavy vehicles are being delivered.<\/p>\n

I’ll finish with two -positive-positive- news items,
\nZelensky is starting to warm up the team for a liberation of Belarus
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1766151602400805109?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And an unknown country has ordered Swedish weapons systems for 11 billion SEK.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gstrand45\/status\/1765972566848549266?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Apologies for zoning out last night \u2013 it’s notoriously hard not to drink too much fox poison whisky and star beer, and I never replied to many kind comments from Ryan, Koltek, Pers, PerraG55 \u2013 thanks for the kind words.<\/p>\n

Then I always read your posts with great interest PerraG55 even though my thumbs up were missing yesterday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

And a good post yesterday by mickeU about the first Bernadotte, which was also worth reading among many others. But still good that the alcohol lock worked, it took me over an hour to find the computer that was behind the sofa in the living room.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for the status report!
\n(I had completely missed that they got a frigate, it will be interesting to see if and how it will be used.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, it is apparently the first of two, and they will have to be a bit careful because RU will probably want to sink it in revenge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

I believe we have evidence that the number of RU tanks is starting to decline, we see it in the types being knocked out and in the number being knocked out.
\nThey have changed the way they fight with them, they recover all they can and older models.<\/p>\n

The same with LV and the radar coverage now apparently depends on the A-50.<\/p>\n

The artillery is seriously declining and we know how much is left in the depots and can guess 30% have technical faults that cannot be fixed.<\/p>\n

If they continue to lose at this rate going forward, the artillery will be gone by summer. BUT it will probably go down just like the tanks and then there will be some left.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Twitter rumor that Teplinsky has died<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1767222046616949050?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ended up wrong \u2013 the Germans are doing the Taurus exchange with uk according to the twitter rumor below<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/rshereme\/status\/1767187390303486380?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:12 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1766488100539171148?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w This one is heavy, only one of the people survived Azovstal \ud83d\ude10 https:\/\/x.com\/mykhailorohoza\/status\/1766105782955712729?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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