{"id":8925,"date":"2024-03-13T10:18:29","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T09:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:32:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:32:21","slug":"2024-03-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions could have been us in the thread sitting in a defense system for two years.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1767758059651088400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Never forget Dudayev and his predictions \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Do you remember that we discussed a month ago or so that “something was going on” and now this “something” has certainly kicked off with a bang in recent weeks.
\nYesterday another refinery in Ryazan was hit
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1767784223065141625?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

From the GUR press release yesterday it is very clear that UA is only allowed to attack with ethnic Russians and they went so far as to only allow previously captured Russian tanks and IFVs to participate. It is crystal clear where the red line is for the West and that Ukraine is following it. Everyone knows there are other capabilities behind it but they will never be visible.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3knivotcnds2j<\/a><\/p>\n

Various reports but at least six regions were heavily bombed by drone swarms yesterday \u2013 Moscow, Kursk, Tula, Voronezh, Belgorod, and Nizhny.<\/p>\n

Do you remember the earlier discussion in the thread about KPR (Kursk Peoples Republic) and BPR (Belgorod Peoples Republic)?
\nThey were supposed to declare independence and a desire to free themselves from the Nazis in Russia.
\nWhat do we think about the rhetoric around the invasion of Russia, or the Belgorod raids 2.0, it is starting to sound a lot like a liberation movement for freedom-thirsty people’s republics.<\/p>\n

Here you have the violent invasion, wave after wave surging forward.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1767488114010751234?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And here we have the pep talk which I think is very well directed.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1767459871916728732?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU has entered four locations in total
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/breakinguanews\/status\/1767483937545134143?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And here is the defense (whole) of Belgorod which is more upset with the Kadyrovites than with Ukraine
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jarekkuczko\/status\/1767554666571915328?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I believe it strikes a chord with liberation fronts all over Russia who want nothing more than to regain their statutory freedom and be decolonized.
\nIf they see successes in Belgorod and Kursk, they realize that the time is ripe for a popular uprising, presumably?
\nBut now of course the invasion of Russia has not yet passed the border villages so everything is in its infancy, way too early for any celebratory beer.<\/p>\n

And above all \u2013 it is also most likely just a raid before the election to shake things up. However, I am always of the opinion that you should take the opportunity and if the Russians flee, you push before they reinforce.<\/p>\n

But does it have to stop at KPR and BPR \u2013 can’t we get a dozen more people’s republics?<\/p>\n

The ethnic Russian units reported yesterday that the Russian resistance collapsed immediately which is promising.<\/p>\n

We must not forget Belarus, the country was on the verge of falling to a popular revolution before the Russians sent in large numbers of internal troops who tortured all demonstrators to death until it stopped.
\nWe don’t really know where the army stands but you remember the VDV colonel’s speech early in the war?
\nThe Khalinousky regiment naturally has a mission in Belarus similar to the ethnic Russian units in Belgorod and Kursk.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the first goal has already been achieved \u2013 this is happening a week before Putin’s re-election as president and he looks weak.<\/p>\n

I like to look at the longer perspective \u2013 UA are superheroes in many regions that hate the colonizers and how they behave. Now is the only time in the next hundred years that RU is so weakened that liberation is possible and of course everyone knows that.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has contacts with all liberation fronts in Russia and an opposition they consider reasonable. They did not see Navalny as an opposition they wanted to work with, by the way.<\/p>\n

If there is a simultaneous uprising in about 20 regions, the colonizers have no chance to sound the alarm. The freedom fighters will be surprised to realize they have won their freedom in a few days.<\/p>\n

The rhetoric being pumped out is such that it calls to cast off the shackles and fight against the torment. The last battle to free the oppressed class from the satiated bourgeoisie. As someone wrote in the thread yesterday \u2013 almost enough to make a song out of it.<\/p>\n

I steal from the internet.
\nRussia is a federal republic divided into 21 republics, 6 \u201ckrays\u201d or federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas1. The republics of Russia are 21 territories that each constitute a fed<\/p>\n

-A patchwork that, and if I remember correctly, under 80% are ethnic Russians so over 20% do not feel affiliation. -Then we have the six ethnically Russian oblasts near Ukraine that will certainly want to belong to the UA sphere going forward which will create enormous job opportunities as they get a way into the EU for their products.
\n-Then Kaliningrad which will become demilitarized and autonomous.
\n-St Petersburg which has already signaled interest in autonomy.
\n-Then maybe the 11 autonomous areas want to become even more autonomous?<\/p>\n

All it takes is a spark and Ukraine is standing with a can of gasoline lighting around the whole house as usual.<\/p>\n

I think it’s a bit funny that “all of the West’s SOF” was not completely pulled out of thin air with what has now come out if you believe the Pole who thanked all Western capabilities in Ukraine. It will be fun when history is written after the war how extensive everything we guessed was.<\/p>\n

-I don’t think UA’s low point was a show for the galleries, it was a serious situation, but now UA is out of the slump.
\n-They just took the initiative on the northern front.
\n\u2013Have you noticed that there are flights into Belarus, what is that?
\nThey have reinforced at Krunky.
\n-They have stopped the Russians everywhere else.
\nLooks good.<\/p>\n

I’m running a good way ahead but if you listen to what is being said there is a plan to break up Russia into “people’s republics”. Putin is an absolute id1ot, while he is planning his election victory and the menu for the victory dinner, Ukraine and some in the West already have a plan to get Russia to turn inward and break up and it started actively in 2024.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/eeldenden\/status\/1767572925719118247?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This will end in about a dozen new countries and many others with great autonomy, we can be completely sure of that and the countdown has just begun.<\/p>\n

UA no longer fights with their hands tied and now all ammunition, including ATACMS, is coming so it will be a very bloody year until RU gives up its attempts to colonize Ukraine.
\nAnd then when RU turns inward it will be turbulent for a while and finally we will have many new beautiful happy countries with prosperous world citizens instead of ethnically cleansed indigenous peoples.<\/p>\n

A cry for help from the 810th Marine Infantry at Krunky, they are tired and worn out
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/albafella1\/status\/1767589618130505737?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The USA seems close to passing its support package for Ukraine now, alignment has been corrected. Regardless of that, they have sent JDAMS and now the same ATACMS that took out 25 helicopters on a dark night a few months ago \u2013 both weapons are a significant capability boost.<\/p>\n

Where is the Russians’ missile rain revenge? They are losing refineries and Ukraine is invading Russia but no missile rain, is eye-for-an-eye not fun anymore?<\/p>\n

Here you have some liberation front in an Oblast biding its time.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/tweetforanna\/status\/1767503075017740686?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

and the bus station in Belgorod is closing, they probably don\u2019t want civilians to start fleeing and telling relatives what is happening, maybe it\u2019s too embarrassing?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lassaperd\/status\/1767539567148593413?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But civilians are fleeing the city of Belgorod anyway.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/officejjsmart\/status\/1767571211620381158?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is what it looks like when you start running low on armor or fragmentation protection to mount weapon systems on, voila \u2013 tractor gunnery is back.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/trip_to_valkiri\/status\/1767615888708997200?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Perpetua with another huge ratio
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1767758059651088400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now Scholz says that not even Taurus to the UK will happen and Pistorius has ordered that all Taurus must be completed. I still believe this will be the hill the defection dies on.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/yasminalombaert\/status\/1767313818269417946?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

When Ukraine wins this war and Russia turns inward, the world will be better. The month that has passed since we in the thread felt something was in motion has been eventful to say the least.<\/p>\n

Every time refinery explosions fail to happen, I am consumed with worry that the West has relapsed, but that was certainly not the case here, and invasion of Russia is now allowed so all is forgiven.<\/p>\n

It is only Scholz in the West who is holding back now, which is good, and the US support package no longer holds them back.<\/p>\n

-positive-positive<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks for today\u2019s positive-positive reading!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Gerasimov has been posthumously fired \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1767906506681340139?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks yourself \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:33 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions could have been us in the thread sitting in a defense system for two 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