{"id":8943,"date":"2024-03-20T10:11:46","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T09:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-20-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:35:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:35:13","slug":"2024-03-20-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-20-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-20"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Gregg breathed optimism regarding the invasion of Russia. On the unit maps, all volunteer units, including the Khalinousky regiment, are now at the northern front.<\/p>\n

RDK faces SOF so it can certainly be true that a SOF patrol was violently wiped out and these are absolutely the best the Russians have, elite recruited from their elite trained to be more elite than before.<\/p>\n

RU has also mobilized 2nd Spetznaz to the area I saw but otherwise it is mostly Russian home guard and probably also those so<\/p>\n

I count six volunteer units, size is always unclear but at least battalion sizes reasonably?<\/p>\n

The contested or conquered area is steadily increasing and it has been over a week.<\/p>\n

RDK themselves state that they have caused RU 1500 losses KWIA, and that there are 30,000 Russians in the area.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ko4ctzjawd2e<\/a><\/p>\n

The latter suggests that it is not a small patrol that crossed the border.<\/p>\n

In 2023 they gave up after three days I believe but this time they seem to be taking the fight and have also infiltrated deeply.<\/p>\n

If I may guess, liberation fronts in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts have also been activated and participate with sabotage, intelligence gathering, and violent murders of barbarians.<\/p>\n

A bit boring that the West required no UA passport to participate in the invasion but they are doing well and these are units with extremely high work experience who have taken all job courses to climb the company \u2013 they simply know all ways to kill Russians.<\/p>\n

It is clear to me that there are two positive effects \u2013
\nThe first is that RU has had to send better units to the area taken from the front in Ukraine, the better it goes the more they will be forced to pull out.<\/p>\n

The second is that the thread thinks a bit wrong here \u2013 this is an attempt to light the fuse, a serious attempt, and we will hear the entire BPK, KPK and liberation struggle, new administration and so on.
\nBut the target group is not Kursk or Belgorod Oblasts, the target group is provinces with minorities or other provinces that have a strong desire to free themselves from central power.
\nThey are the ones who see how Ukraine is now invading Russia and how Russia is unable to defend itself.<\/p>\n

Then there is a third, RU will send in FSB and Rosgvardia units to these oblasts for crowd control and to prevent the 30,000 from fleeing and so on. They take them from other provinces and do you know what is very Ukrainian?
\nYes, to start something in one part of the country and then it takes off somewhere else. This invasion is absolutely not stand alone and it is a multi-stage rocket. This multi-stage rocket can of course fail but there is a high level of ambition behind where this is reasonably the first step.<\/p>\n

According to RU themselves, every volunteer unit is participating in this and there are many. The only unit I cannot locate right now is the international legion.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1770236145097678932?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The Romanian legion participates,
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1770189681684365339?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For obvious reasons, it is not possible to send volunteers with English or US passports but there are probably many volunteers in the international legion who fit the profile. It would not surprise me if we can reach tens of thousands of soldiers who have permission to participate.
\nThen they are supported by UA-controlled LV and indirect fire as well as special aircraft and have their own armor.
\nIt is darkened in Kursk.<\/p>\n

If I may guess, the invasion army is very much engaged in infiltration that disrupts deeply, they do not stay in the villages they have conquered waiting to get hit by lots of FAB bombs. It should be mobile and over a large area and then they work forward one village at a time that is secured.<\/p>\n

Here come completely new figures on the refineries and lots of new conclusions, there are as many rock-solid conclusions as there are experts \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1770001503824077149?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I have the impression that RU has now announced that filming the fires in the refineries is not allowed but I could be completely wrong.<\/p>\n

However, Engels has been visited, is there anything left of the strategic bomber force there?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1770324722124738564?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Just as RU turned “noon against Putin” into everyone voting for Putin, there is now an ENORMOUS influence campaign against the West, absolutely enormous. Putin won the election in a landslide victory (now I understand why they chose 90%) and is legitimate and popular. Sunak is not even elected, Macron has a wife who is actually a man, and so on endlessly.
\nI read the same now from many accounts in Sweden about our corrupt politicians.<\/p>\n

The fact is that our leaders in the West have performed poorly the last 23 years or so \u2013 there is a lot to complain about and we still hear some insane ideas aired from certain parties even in Sweden that make one scared.<\/p>\n

But\u2026
\nIf our leaders do not watch out, and especially prolong the war unnecessarily, there is a real risk that pro-Putin leaders will be voted in in more countries or that there will be coalitions where some party effectively blocks everything.<\/p>\n

I do not agree with Scholz\u2019s motivation for acting as he does \u2013 he instead increases the risk of a Russian win and personally I am starting to become suspicious but here is a link that FSB (why always FSB?) exploits this for influence purposes.
\nLex Black Sea Fleet he should think instead \u2013 tells us exactly how RU works.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/reneduba\/status\/1770097104909651982?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there is the whole nuclear weapons bit, that the West will nuke Russia or Ukraine.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/vicktop55\/status\/1770152719007068339?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one with the French brigade in Ukraine refuses to die out, as rhetoric it is good but maybe not quite appropriate at the moment \u2013 better to continue with all cover tops that can be denied. Suspect it is mostly a Russian influence operation now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sentdefender\/status\/1770171670021784057?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And WSJ has an article again that only benefits Putin.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1769659907278598307?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Serbia announces that they will invade Kosovo whenever they feel like it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sythuk\/status\/1769836587544617004?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin backs down for nothing, now FSB will gradually start murdering traitors everywhere one can guess, no one is safe.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maimunkanews\/status\/1770072850159817070?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Does the West have a defense against FSB murder squads if they start turning against countries in the West?
\nIn Moldova, Sarnu is probably not safe at all.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/gerashchenko_en\/status\/1769739386206236791?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Russia is already at war with the West and is currently using its full arsenal of subversive activities. Our countries are not immune, and the longer time goes on, the greater the risk of another incident like in Hungary or Slovakia.<\/p>\n

Praise be to the shrapnel protection, a lot of shrapnel protection is currently being sent to Ukraine from all sorts of countries.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andreibtvt\/status\/1770065549764030774?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here the Belgians have found 300 pieces.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpress\/status\/1770058037367067101?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Good to have for an offensive, I think.<\/p>\n

I have noted on the unit maps that RU has its CRBN brigades at most fronts now. What that means I do not know \u2013 everything from them being used as infantry to Putin wanting to intimidate or possibly use tactical nuclear weapons is on the table with the unpredictable bunker toad.<\/p>\n

Now Bahrain gets to buy 50 Abrams and some other nice stuff \ud83e\udd2c
\nUkraine now has funds to procure equipment but do you remember the discussion a few months ago that the entire West now has to restock so there are countless contracts in the way for UA before they can buy anything \u2013 it\u2019s enough to make you tear up.<\/p>\n

Rheinmetall is building an ammunition factory in Romania for the \u201cingredients\u201d in the shells, which apparently was a bottleneck.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/colbybadhwar\/status\/1770151722364604472?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one was exciting from I\u2026el, must be some small nano-drone presumably?
\nThey scout before advancing and find an ambush waiting for them.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/mossadil\/status\/1769900052900675989?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here is an attempt to prove with statistics that RU is seriously short on MBTs.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/verekerrichard1\/status\/1770170648884867236?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

That is probably why UA has requested large numbers of shrapnel-protected vehicles instead of a few more MBTs; they can run their mechanized assaults with fewer tanks since that weapon system is currently an endangered species in RU.<\/p>\n

Ben Wallace joins in on UK soldiers in Ukraine \u2013 from someone who absolutely understands nothing, wouldn\u2019t it be easier to give Ukraine all the equipment they point to?
\nAnd then run large-scale voluntary recruitment from all over the EU so that the manpower pool grows for UA?
\nWhat do I know in my parents\u2019 basement.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1770215191747105080?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:11 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

13:50, I know I\u2019m nagging a bit about this but when a law is applied subjectively it is never good.
\nThere are plenty of examples of people who said less than that and were convicted under this law.<\/p>\n

\u201ch@ror\u201d also falls under another ethical area where we have grown up with very clear guidelines on how we should behave towards women in society which may not be punishable in itself but it really turns the code of conduct we have all accepted upside down.<\/p>\n

HMF after the amendment as I understand it violates the constitution and certain groups have hijacked it to silence all forms of criticism against themselves beyond its original purpose.<\/p>\n

When groups then engage in clear crimes under HMF without anyone raising an eyebrow it only leads to aversion in broader layers of the population \u2013 now I\u2019m mostly thinking about the J\u2026e hate we have heard on our streets since October 7<\/p>\n

That is why it is critical that \u201ceveryone is equal before the law\u201d and laws are not subjective, or only for those who follow them.<\/p>\n

The majority population might get the idea to start calling, for example, all women from Africa \u201cAfrican h@rors\u201d which would make the debate climate immediately much worse, right?
\nNow I don\u2019t think everyone else will do that because we still want to live by the code of conduct we ourselves want to be treated by but just as an example to illustrate what could happen.<\/p>\n

Sorry if this is OT.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Interesting thoughts about the Russian invasion, it will be interesting to see what can come out of it. At the very least it is already drawing Russian resources from elsewhere.<\/p>\n

I think Western countries could be a bit more generous towards those who want to go down voluntarily and fight. I would guess some refrain because they don\u2019t know how they and their families will manage in case of injuries and deaths.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Exactly, make it a status and recruit volunteers very broadly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Spain is sending 20 Leo2s to Ukraine<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1770507368993792073?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

RU mobilizing<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/mrkovalenko\/status\/1770432112723710221?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Imagine if they try to mobilize 768,000 \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Then it\u2019s probably time for Ukraine to pick up the pace as well.<\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see how the Russian population reacts..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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