{"id":8949,"date":"2024-03-23T09:03:13","date_gmt":"2024-03-23T08:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-23-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:36:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:36:16","slug":"2024-03-23-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-23-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:33<\/h2>\n

Back from the concrete lab with a beautiful ratio from Perpetua,
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1770693166099730546?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Below is an opinion and should be read as such but with what we know today in 2024 it might not be so far from the truth, who knows. We have had heated discussions about this since the start of the war and I am of the opinion that the more speculative proposals turned out to be correct which is unfortunate.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ehunterchristie\/status\/1771182671319674973?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I also want to start by saying there are too many conflicting statements both in the West and in Russia, Peskov proclaims WAR while the below came as Eldposten linked in yesterday\u2019s thread,
\nhttps:\/\/mstdn.social\/@noelreports\/112140111082337851<\/a><\/p>\n

Then Macron has gone absolutely bananas and found his Elan that no one thought existed while Biden and Germany desperately try to slow down, also from the legend on presumably two legs Eldposten.
\nhttps:\/\/mstdn.social\/@noelreports\/11214049820351793<\/a><\/p>\n

You get a bit of the feeling that Putin is starting to lose control, or at least that he no longer manages to control the narrative as he intended, and that is the narrative for the whole war?<\/p>\n

After more than two years of war, I\u2019m starting to get a bit battered when it comes to the West\u2019s betrayal and what Russia might come up with so there is always a risk that you assume the worst.<\/p>\n

That is why I strongly advocate for own analyses of the information we get, or don\u2019t get. Generally, I try to draw my own conclusions from pieces of information and besides Accentmannen who apparently is my twin (I\u2019ve just found out now) I am rarely interested in ready-made conclusions for the simple reason that they more often than not are completely wrong.<\/p>\n

If we want to know if the US has asked UA to stop bombing the refineries and if UA has listened \u2013 then we just need to wait for the bombing campaign to stop, right?
\nNow we know from Erik14 that a refinery in Sarman was heavily bombed yesterday so that debunks it as not true. Seems like another refinery exploded so two in total.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Flash_news_ua\/status\/1771358640655499379#m<\/a><\/p>\n

Then apparently UA formally went out and announced that there was nothing behind the rumor but interesting that they felt compelled to do so. I personally think that some in the US have entertained these thoughts but that UA chooses to continue but that is my personal opinion.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/beefeater_fella\/status\/1771218993614856279?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If we want to know if the theater massacre was a Russian false flag \u2013 wait and see if Putin immediately uses it for mobilization and tougher rhetoric.
\nRight now it is at least confusing, in timing it fits incredibly well for a false flag, I..S claimed responsibility, the prepared media statements are absent and various Russian media point fingers at RDK (the Russian volunteer unit in Ukraine) and Ukraine through a white van bus (which was Belarus-registered \ud83e\udd23). And then the US outed the plan two weeks ago. Simplified it looked like a clear false flag that the US outed but when the usual influence operation didn\u2019t start, suspicion grows. By now some Ukrainian (former prisoner) should have been paraded and announced it was a GRU revenge.<\/p>\n

But never let a good crisis go to waste \u2013 the interesting thing here is what Putin does with the attack, not whether it was a planned false flag or not. But can he do that when I..S claimed responsibility?
\nThen I am quite curious if I..S has seen how weak the central power is and as an organization interfered in the liberation of the Muslim provinces, that is extrapolating way too far on a single piece of information but imagine if Kadyrov is dragged behind a goat through the streets of Grozny and then Chechnya rises. There is an active liberation movement in Chechnya we know from before.
\nThere are also other minority provinces that want their freedom.<\/p>\n

If we want to know if there are more yellow cards from the West \u2013 if UA retreats from Belgorod it is probably that but right now they have bombed the city of Belgorod for the tenth day in a row and have no intention of withdrawing. I therefore see no influence from the West that at least manages to make UA pull back here. That means the invasion of Russia and the heavy bombing of the refineries will continue \u2013 very good \ud83d\udca5
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1771404676774441457?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I see only opportunities with the mobilization
\nIt is a step closer to Russia turning inward, on top of everything else we have discussed there is now fear of being sent to Ukraine.
\nA million men under arms is a million closer to revolution \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n

It will also be enormously exciting to see the aftermath of the rocket rain, will there be more, when were the rockets manufactured and UA\u2019s response. Don\u2019t forget that Zelensky has promised \u201can eye for an eye.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now Europe must do a couple of things pronto, which I by the way think they already are doing since everything has changed in the last months \u2013
\n-stop relying on the US because even Biden has slow-walked here.
\n-stop relying on Germany because Scholz and SPD have slow-walked the whole war.
\n-give Ukraine everything they point to, absolutely everything.
\n-give Ukraine support in word and writing, it means a lot if leaders call Zelensky and promise to never betray him, he is quite alone at the top and after the US and Germany\u2019s betrayal there have probably been sleepless nights.
\n-make sure volunteers can be recruited throughout the EU to broaden the recruitment base for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

UA has already signaled that they were low on air defense and that means they cannot cover all areas, they concentrated well on Kiev and RU were disappointed that they didn\u2019t get any hits but then chose targets where UA has no air defense.<\/p>\n

This only means that if UA gets more air defense it will be 100% kill rate across the country not just the highest-value targets and it is a matter of manufacturing capacity.<\/p>\n

The next opportunity I see is the US\u2019s tardiness and that the EU has a chance to regain some of its integrity and human dignity here vis-\u00e0-vis the US
\nI am beginning to wonder if China \u2013 EU can establish good relations after this war but we\u2019ll see. So far China has shown restraint and no desire to escalate.
\nA side effect of the terror attack is that it resets Russian media, what happened before disappears in the noise.<\/p>\n

On March 22 this one wrote that RU heavily bombed 7 refineries in 7 days. That is not true, right?
\nI think it has been quiet for a while, like a week, and that we heard about only one refinery being targeted?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/victoriaslog\/status\/1771105061457842595?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nI have been sloppy with my list the last week though \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

The big attack was 88 missiles and 63 drones and that does not include those that crashed due to technical faults or EV weapons.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/rihardskols\/status\/1771120312949600673?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Something that slips a bit under the radar is the now absolutely HARD rhetoric from the EU \u2013 statement after statement that must make Putin have to lie down, so exhausted he becomes. It probably goes unnoticed because the EU does not go big on social media, but it does control the entire EU action on the matter.<\/p>\n

The sound of the Kinzal missile.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3koc3jfcbol2e<\/a><\/p>\n

The Spaniards are sending a total of 60 Leo2 tanks.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jeff21461\/status\/1770777475540213862?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Russians are sending increasingly older armor to the fronts.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andysch64494719\/status\/1770821001045000466?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The invasion of Russia seems to continue and the Russian units in the area are not holding up. The 2nd Spetznaz has been droned and is exhausted.<\/p>\n

Then there is a rumor that RU units will be moved from UA up to the northern front.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ko744pwyvl22<\/a><\/p>\n

The Russians feel that Ukraine is becoming more than annoyingly troublesome as they have moved thousands towards the northern front waiting their turn.<\/p>\n

Then everyone is fooled into thinking this is all because it is relatively calm at the fronts \u2013 that Russia has lost the strategic bombing branch and that UA has invaded Russia, but this is just the beginning.
\n-The 200,000 drones built up until the end of February are supposed to be used for something front-line related, right?
\n-All the hard vehicles delivered must also be used.
\n-All artillery ammunition.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, Ukraine is determined to throw out the Russians and in 2024 they will fight on equal terms for the first time in this war and it is going well.<\/p>\n

What we saw in 2023 was that they were caught off guard by the minefields, strange as that may be, but they were. Then the Ahkp started immediately before UA struck the bases and thereafter the damn FAB bomb drops which are still an absolute scourge today. The West had not resourced the offensive, no air support, and four brigades did not get the promised materiel, 4 brigades!!<\/p>\n

Ukraine will be able to handle the minefields, they have more combat boats than they need and they have more fragmentation-protected vehicles than they will lose.
\nThere are good reasons to carry out a major offensive in 2024 but the FAB bombs probably need to be removed first.
\nThis one is Ayden so WARNING but film of FAB bomb dropping.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/squatsons\/status\/1770940512326865096?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have the coordinates to the FAB bomb factory.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/banderafella\/status\/1770905988859658380?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

One might always think that UA will go after all the airports instead since F-16 and Gripen are delayed, who knows?
\nThe big campaign plan stands, there is just some slippage in the timeline here but everyone who has worked on a bigger project knows that it always happens regardless of how good the planning has been and Ukraine is trying to win an entire war against Russia.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut is still a flytrap and then Avdiivka became a flytrap but now many units have moved on. Chasiv Yar will continue to attract Russian units until the spring offensive or summer offensive kicks off.
\nAt the northern front, 30,000 Russians are now locked in and then all blocking units that are supposed to prevent them from fleeing from FSB and Rosgvardia.<\/p>\n

But what does it look like in between?<\/p>\n

Then the rumor that RU is preparing an offensive against Kharkiv with 100,000 troops, how come these 100,000 have not managed to push back the invasion of Russia up there?<\/p>\n

There are weak points and an 11-brigade offensive reserve that can be deployed anywhere will make a difference.
\nBelarus should also light up but MAYBE the West has set a boundary there since it is an internationally recognized country and not a party to the war (a lie of course), who knows?<\/p>\n

After over two years I have started to learn that when the next logical steps don\u2019t happen, it often later emerges that the West has intervened.<\/p>\n

I only see opportunities and positive information right now \u2013 everything points in the right direction, green arrow straight up except for Putin where it is a red arrow straight down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:54<\/h2>\n

RU has started using mother drones that release FPV drones.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3koe7cmfxtd2h<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:56<\/h3>\n

Yes, it\u2019s probably day 11 now or something?<\/p>\n

There are supposed to be 30,000 RU in the area and they are preparing a “summer offensive” with 100,000 in the area that will go towards Kharkiv (hot air I think).<\/p>\n

There are at most 10,000 participating on the UA side and above all there are not many inside Russia right now at the penetration points. Hundreds.<\/p>\n

Then they have probably infiltrated quite deeply as well but that can\u2019t be more than hundreds either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:52<\/h2>\n

What a messy week this was, now it\u2019s fox poison whiskey and star beer but I still have trouble processing all the information that has come. I think Putin feels the same, caviar spoon in mouth and slippers on in the bunker.
\nHe doesn\u2019t know if he can trust the bodyguards anymore and is terrified of absolutely everything.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:47<\/h2>\n

MickeUppsala did not disappoint yesterday and posted the first rumint that F-16s are in Ukraine. Then there is rumint on RUSSIAN channels that one of the targets of last night\u2019s missile barrage was an airfield in western Ukraine where UA has F-16s. Without speculating further about that, one must conclude that if it\u2019s true, the critical line is that the F-16 delivery is not delayed ahead of the UA spring offensive.<\/p>\n

Good activity in the thread last night, also apologies that the dog got to the computer again, totally hopeless \ud83d\ude05<\/p>\n

Zelensky\u2019s \u201ceye for an eye\u201d was no empty words, they hit Crimea with everything they had yesterday and from the rumint you read the damage must have been enormous, airfields, navy, army bases and headquarters were subjected to a large amount of Storm Shadow. At night when everyone is sleeping and gathered in one place, a direct hit with Storm Shadow should cause great damage.
\nThe headquarters had a forest of antennas and MXT confirmed that two landing ships were knocked out.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kogm5p5jbs2o<\/a><\/p>\n

Then they topped it off with \u201c20 hits\u201d on an oil depot (presumably drones?) which suggests hits on several tanks and presumably fuel for the war?
\nThe only unfortunate thing is that the missiles cannot be used outside Ukraine\u2019s borders but destroying Crimea is also a positive.<\/p>\n

The Russians continue their revenge campaign against UA with another missile attack but significantly smaller than the days before if I understand correctly?
\nIt is significant because it shows RU capability, seems to have been 29 missiles (minus those that crashed due to technical faults and were jammed with EW).
\nI am also quite surprised that they are now at the end of March attacking the power infrastructure?
\nUA has been hitting refineries since the turn of the year and only now does this missile barrage come?
\nHard to find any logic in that, possibly it took them until now to concentrate their forces as they have, who knows.<\/p>\n

UA will probably soon accelerate against all the refineries again if one guesses, there is no shortage of drones.<\/p>\n

The terrorist attack in Moscow is probably among the most chaotic I have seen in the aftermath \u2013 it’s hard to dismiss ISIS when they release bodycam footage \ud83d\ude00
\nAt least one person who was arrested was at the site of the attack, I believe everyone is now identified.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/djuric_zlatko\/status\/1771683561432654031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

No bomb belts, which are ISIS’s usual, and the video below is absolutely sensational \u2013 they calmly walk out of the shopping center after an hour of killing and drive away \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1771669021525414340?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Everyone now knows that a base of the internal troops is 8 minutes’ drive from the attack site.
\nPutin does what is right for him and blames everything on Ukraine, anything else would be dereliction of duty, but China cannot raise its tone here and domestic politics will probably also become a bit difficult since ISIS’s claim presumably circulates in Russia as well?<\/p>\n

The attack had everything characteristic of a false flag \u2013 after the election, Peskov declares war, Putin wants to mobilize, the terrorists rampage for a whole hour undisturbed and then leave despite a base of internal troops within walking distance of the site. And Putin is known for his false flags.<\/p>\n

But then the Russians are completely silent, the usual aftermath is missing \u2013 that was the first thing that deviated from the norm and made one suspicious.<\/p>\n

Then ISIS comes and crashes the whole party and claims responsibility for the attack and finally they are so upset when no one believes it that they post all the bodycam footage \u2013 case closed.<\/p>\n

Then those arrested were detained by some neo-Nazi militia group and not FSB or GRU elite units if I understand correctly, something about eating an ear and auctioning off the knife, Erik14 has the details.<\/p>\n

One is slowly coming to the conclusion that the Russian security apparatus is completely depleted after the war in Ukraine and that a terrorist act has taken place right under their noses for all minority peoples throughout Russia to see.<\/p>\n

This is a serious temperature raiser in the pressure cooker and Putin should be worried that all Muslim provinces will start to move, the memory of the Chechen wars hangs like a gray haze over everything.<\/p>\n

The USA warns of more terrorist attacks and urges its citizens to leave the country.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrreview\/status\/1771602018282414111?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For me, this is a stepping stone on the road to Russia turning inward.<\/p>\n

The USA had information about terrorist attacks two weeks ago and the FSB announced a couple of days ago that they thwarted a terror attack, so this is not a one-time occurrence.<\/p>\n

I am still waiting for unrest in many provinces as that is a natural next step that should come.
\nOne can guess that cutting off the ear of a Muslim man during Ramadan is a bit of an explosive issue among some Muslims in Russia, the Russians are their own worst enemy.<\/p>\n

My working theory, as is well known, is that the Belgorod raids are intended to show the other provinces that Russia is weak, there is very slick rhetoric being pumped out in the Russian sphere.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1770798882554884471?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We know that Ukraine is trying to light the fuse inside Russia and that they are in contact with many liberation fronts. But you also understand how patient Ukraine is by NOT carrying out this type of terrorist attack.<\/p>\n

Have you, like me, noticed that the opsec cover has settled over Belgorod?
\nWe hear nothing but at the same time the Russians are pulling units out of Ukraine and reinforcing the northern front DESPITE there supposedly being 20,000 \u2013 30,000 there already. This doesn\u2019t quite add up, does it?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ko744pwyvl22<\/a><\/p>\n

My guess is that the total UA force is around 10,000 strong and that they are fighting across the entire area with extensive infiltration. There are hundreds at the penetration points and hundreds infiltrated with support from drones, air defense, and artillery.
\nThe rest are preparing new penetration points and this will not end like last time.<\/p>\n

Do you know what this will be then \u2013 yes, it will be the diversionary offensive ahead of the UA offensive we thought we would see in 2023 but which did not happen because the West issued many yellow cards.<\/p>\n

This morning\u2019s laugh, H\u2026 condemns the terrorist attack in Russia in the strongest terms \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1771685083952341065?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is so absurd that it makes one absolutely furious \ud83e\udd2c
\nIn the Russian missiles there are basically only Western components and they are allowed to be fired at Ukraine.
\nBut Ukraine is not allowed to fire Western missiles at Russia.
\nImagine if yesterday\u2019s attack had been against the Russian air and army bases just on the Russian side of the border \u2013 it would have multiplied the outcome tenfold.
\nIs the entire West asleep?
\nThe link below and a solid PR campaign would be enough to unlock it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/carlbildt\/status\/1771785951502540834?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you count as Igor Suhsko does, RU has 400,000 \u2013 500,000 dead in this war, the excess mortality in the country Russia. Can you count like this?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1771438505085861902?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is what soldiers who survived a FAB bomb look like, so let\u2019s hope the F-16 is in place.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/arthurm40330824\/status\/1770899146750218648?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Worth listening to so you understand Putin\u2019s plan \u2013 more evil than Gargamel in the Smurfs.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pm_viktororban\/status\/1770843187751350303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you have wondered whether certain alternative media are working for Russia, you don\u2019t have to wonder anymore.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friatider\/status\/1771386110339428437?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I feel that everything is spinning faster right now, the terrorist attack in Moscow is reasonably the beginning of something new and unpleasant for Putin \u2013 his war with the Muslim minority population.<\/p>\n

Belgorod and Kursk are invaded and it will continue toughly.<\/p>\n

Despite the heavy missile rain, I stand firm that Russia has now lost the strategic missile war.<\/p>\n

The rhetoric from RU is at least ambiguous \u2013 Peskov says it is now WAR while their ambassador to the UN says the special operation has achieved its goals and can be ended (freely interpreted).<\/p>\n

Macron has completely abandoned the script and is seriously on the warpath and apparently Russia\u2019s most protected place \u2013 Crimea \u2013 is completely unable to protect anything because yesterday ships, aircraft, command centers, and army bases were struck in huge mushroom clouds.<\/p>\n

Everything else in the occupied areas or Russia is worse defended with air defense, radar, and electronic warfare than Crimea is \u2013 let that sink in.<\/p>\n

At Ukraine\u2019s best-defended place Kiev, 100% of the missiles were shot down when Russia tried to retaliate.<\/p>\n

What is missing is a UA offensive on the ground and there the elite air force is the critical line, and rumors are buzzing about that, as well as heavy vehicles, drones, and artillery ammunition being in place together with ATACMS and cluster munitions.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has what it needs for a renewed offensive and many brigades have had enough rest and they have 11 in strategic reserve.<\/p>\n

I am waiting for \u2013
\n-worry and riots in republics in the Far East.
\n-renewed campaign against refineries.
\n-spring offensive (whenever it comes, but I call it the spring offensive).<\/p>\n

-positive \u2013 positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:33 Back from the concrete lab with a beautiful ratio from Perpetua, https:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1770693166099730546?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w Below is an opinion and should be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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