{"id":8951,"date":"2024-03-24T10:05:37","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T09:05:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-24-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:36:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:36:29","slug":"2024-03-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:52 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

MickeUppsala did not disappoint yesterday and posted the first rumint that F-16s are in Ukraine. Then there is rumint from RUSSIAN channels that one of the targets of last night’s missile barrage was an airfield in western Ukraine where UA has F-16s. Without speculating further on that, one can conclude that if it is true, the critical line is that the F-16 delivery is not delayed ahead of UA’s spring offensive.<\/p>\n

Good momentum in the thread last night, also apologies that the dog got to the computer again, completely hopeless \ud83d\ude05<\/p>\n

Zelensky’s “eye for an eye” were no empty words, they hit Crimea with everything they had yesterday and from the rumint you read, the damage must have been enormous, airfields, navy, army bases and headquarters were subjected to a large number of Storm Shadow missiles. At night when everyone is asleep and gathered in one place, a direct hit with Storm Shadow should cause great damage.
\nThe headquarters had a forest of antennas and MXT confirmed that two landing ships were knocked out.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kogm5p5jbs2o<\/a><\/p>\n

Then they topped it off with “20 hits” on an oil depot (drones presumably?) which suggests hits on several tanks and presumably fuel for the war?
\nThe only unfortunate thing is that the missiles are not allowed to be used outside Ukraine’s land borders but destroying Crimea is also a positive.<\/p>\n

The Russians continue their revenge campaign against UA with another missile attack but significantly smaller than the previous days if I understand correctly?
\nIt is significant because it shows RU capability, it seems to have been 29 missiles (minus those that crashed due to technical faults and were jammed with EW).
\nI am also quite surprised that they are now attacking the power infrastructure at the end of March?
\nUA has been hitting the refineries since the turn of the year and only now comes this missile barrage?
\nHard to find any logic in that, possibly it took them until now to concentrate forces as they have, who knows.<\/p>\n

UA will probably soon ramp up against all the refineries again if one may guess, there is no shortage of drones.<\/p>\n

The terrorist attack in Moscow is probably among the most confusing I have seen in the aftermath \u2013 it is hard to dismiss ISIS when they release bodycam footage \ud83d\ude00
\nAt least one person arrested was at the attack site, I believe all are now identified.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/djuric_zlatko\/status\/1771683561432654031?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

No bomb belts which is ISIS standard and the video below is absolutely sensational \u2013 they calmly walk out of the shopping center after an hour of killing and drive away \ud83d\ude32
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1771669021525414340?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Everyone now knows that a base of internal troops is 8 minutes’ drive from the attack site.
\nPutin is doing the only thing right for him and blames everything on Ukraine, anything else would be dereliction of duty but China cannot raise the tone here and domestic politics will probably also be a bit difficult since ISIS’s claim presumably is making rounds in Russia as well?<\/p>\n

The attack had everything characteristic of a false flag \u2013 after the election, Peskov declares war, Putin wants to mobilize, terrorists rampage for a whole hour undisturbed and then leave despite a base of internal troops within walking distance from the site. And Putin is known for his false flags.<\/p>\n

But then the Russians are completely silent, the whole aftermath is missing \u2013 that was the first thing that deviated from the norm and made one suspicious.<\/p>\n

Then ISIS comes and crashes the whole party and claims the attack and finally they are so upset that no one believes it that they post all the bodycam footage \u2013 case closed.<\/p>\n

Then those arrested were detained by some neo-Nazi militia group and not FSB or GRU elite units if I understand correctly, something about eating an ear and auctioning off the knife, Erik14 has the details.<\/p>\n

One is slowly coming to the conclusion that the Russian security apparatus is completely depleted after the war in Ukraine and that a terrorist act has taken place right under their noses for all minority peoples throughout Russia to see.<\/p>\n

This is a serious temperature raiser in the pressure cooker and Putin should be worried that all Muslim provinces start to move, the memory of the Chechen wars hangs like a gray haze over everything.<\/p>\n

The USA warns of more terrorist attacks and urges its citizens to leave the country.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrreview\/status\/1771602018282414111?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

For me, this is a step up the ladder towards Russia turning inward.<\/p>\n

The USA had information about terrorist attacks two weeks ago and FSB announced a few days ago that they thwarted a terrorist attack so not a one-off event thus.<\/p>\n

I am still waiting for unrest in many provinces because that is a natural next step that should come.
\nOne can guess that cutting off the ear of a Muslim man during Ramadan is a bit of an explosive issue among some Muslims in Russia, the Russians are their own worst enemy.<\/p>\n

My working theory is, as is well known, that the Belgorod raids are intended to show the other provinces that Russia is weak, there is a lot of slick rhetoric pumped out in the Russian sphere.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1770798882554884471?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

That Ukraine is trying to light the fuse in Russia we know and that they are in contact with many liberation fronts we also know. But you also understand how patient Ukraine is that they have NOT carried out this type of terrorist attack.<\/p>\n

Have you, like me, noticed that the opsec cover has settled over Belgorod?
\nWe hear nothing but at the same time the Russians are pulling units out of Ukraine and reinforcing the northern front DESPITE there supposedly being 20,000 \u2013 30,000 there already. This does not exactly add up, does it?
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ko744pwyvl22<\/a><\/p>\n

My guess is that the total UA force is around 10,000 strong and that they are fighting across the entire area with extensive infiltration. There are hundreds at the penetration points and hundreds infiltrated with support from drones, air defense and artillery.
\nThe rest are preparing new penetration points and this will not end like last time it happened.<\/p>\n

Do you know what that will be then \u2013 yes, it will be the diversionary offensive ahead of the UA offensive we thought we would see in 2023 but it did not happen because the West threw out a lot of yellow cards.<\/p>\n

This morning’s laugh, H\u2026 condemns the terrorist attack in Russia the strongest \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1771685083952341065?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is so absurd that it makes you absolutely furious \ud83e\udd2c
\nIn the Russian missiles there are basically only Western components and they are allowed to be fired at Ukraine.
\nBut Ukraine is not allowed to fire Western missiles at Russia.
\nImagine if yesterday’s attack had been against the Russian air and army bases just on the Russian side of the border \u2013 it would have multiplied the outcome tenfold.
\nIs the whole West asleep?
\nJust the link below and a serious PR campaign would unlock it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/carlbildt\/status\/1771785951502540834?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you count as Igor Suhsko has, Russia has 400,000 \u2013 500,000 dead in this war, the excess mortality in the country Russia. Can you count like this?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1771438505085861902?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This is what soldiers who survived a FAB bomb look like, so let’s hope the F-16 is in place.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/arthurm40330824\/status\/1770899146750218648?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Worth listening to so you understand Putin’s plan \u2013 more evil than Gargamel in The Smurfs.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pm_viktororban\/status\/1770843187751350303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you have wondered whether certain alternative media are working for Russia, you don’t need to wonder anymore.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friatider\/status\/1771386110339428437?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I feel like everything is spinning faster right now, the terrorist attack in Moscow is reasonably the beginning of something new and unpleasant for Putin \u2013 his war with the Muslim minority population.<\/p>\n

Belgorod and Kursk are invaded and it will continue intensely.<\/p>\n

Despite the heavy missile barrage, I stand firm that Russia has lost the strategic bombing war now.<\/p>\n

The rhetoric from Russia is at least ambiguous \u2013 Peskov says it is now WAR while their ambassador to the UN says that the special operation has achieved its goals and can be concluded (freely interpreted).<\/p>\n

Macron has completely abandoned the script and is seriously on the warpath and apparently Russia’s most protected place \u2013 Crimea \u2013 is completely unable to protect anything because yesterday ships, aircraft, command centers, and army bases were struck in large mushroom clouds.<\/p>\n

Everything else in the occupied territories or Russia is worse defended with air defense, radar, and electronic warfare than Crimea is \u2013 let that sink in.<\/p>\n

At Ukraine’s best-defended place Kiev, 100% of the missiles were shot down when Russia tried to retaliate.<\/p>\n

What is missing is a Ukrainian offensive on the ground and there the advanced air force is the critical line, and there is rumbling about it, as well as that heavy vehicles, drones, and artillery ammunition are in place together with ATACMS and cluster munitions.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has what it needs for a renewed offensive and many brigades have had enough rest and they have 11 in strategic reserve.<\/p>\n

I am waiting for \u2013
\n-worry and riots in the republics in the Far East.
\n-renewed campaign against refineries.
\n-spring offensive (whenever it comes but I call it spring offensive).<\/p>\n

-positive \u2013 positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Managed to post the entry in yesterday’s thread, refuse fines if the Ombudsman shows up because it was lively last night and that is a valid reason, stated in the statutes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Regarding the missile barrage that is only now coming, I have a couple of theories.<\/p>\n

Could it be that they have saved up to be able to strike hard when the F-16 is finally in place (to take out the airports etc.), but now that Ukraine has hit the refineries hard, they still felt compelled to respond so as not to appear weak and perhaps with the hope that it will act as a deterrent?<\/p>\n

Another less likely theory is that there is some resistance among the Russians when it comes to attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure and therefore they have waited with those attacks until after the election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Plausible suggestions, yes something is going on because it deviates from the script.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Drone straight into the distillation tower<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/tendar\/status\/1771944298595930469?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:24 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Strangely satisfying to see\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:57 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

New \u2013 Ukraine drone power plant<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1772130990648947100?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:52 \u2013 Johan No.1 MickeUppsala did not disappoint yesterday and posted the first rumint that F-16s are in Ukraine. 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