{"id":8963,"date":"2024-03-31T10:53:28","date_gmt":"2024-03-31T08:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-03-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-28T09:38:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T07:38:08","slug":"2024-03-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-03-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-03-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

What happened to the threatened mobilization, now Putin only dares to mobilize 150,000. That is roughly the size of an offensive reserve about which they run out in two months. I know what I believe \u2013 that Putin can\u2019t mobilize because then there will be a revolution \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1774340886249283788?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s loss list suggests heavy pre-emptive strikes on front-near rear functions such as artillery, logistics, air defense, and radar.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/golub\/status\/1774303434331574789?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Right now Russia has the initiative but their losses in March were among the highest in the entire war in several categories and indeed they have taken some potato fields but Ukraine has also retaken terrain. We are absolutely not in a situation where RU is advancing and UA is faltering \u2013 it is a mobile defensive battle and UA is preparing an offensive reserve.
\nFAB bombers are a scourge, the air activity is almost at the same intensity as in 2022 before RU got scared and pulled back their air force.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not hard to identify a fortification and then drop 3-4 FAB bombs on it and then it\u2019s knocked out \u2013 the defense is buried under tons of earth.
\nIt\u2019s absolutely scandalous that the elite air force didn\u2019t come earlier and it\u2019s absolutely scandalous that Ukraine is not allowed to strike air bases right on the Russian side of the border with real long-range weapons.
\nBut the world is unfortunately not fair.<\/p>\n

During the night RU fired at least 12 missiles at Ukraine and proportional retaliation is conspicuously absent as everyone notes.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3koxsjj4o2e2m<\/a><\/p>\n

There was possibly a fire in some oil field but I don\u2019t think we can attribute that to Ukraine without formal confirmation.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/lxsummer1\/status\/1774182864923324497?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And then there were drones in Saratov but no refineries, but at least there\u2019s no shortage of drones \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1774342770691297682?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Perpetua has a good loss ratio as usual and it is 1:5 to RU\u2019s disadvantage which is good.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/andrewperpetua\/status\/1774323676726304932?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now we\u2019ll see if the rest of the West follows France here, no one likes a loser but so far Macron projects decisiveness and strength.
\nThere is much more that can be delivered, Jordan has lots of decommissioned Challenger 1 tanks and Spain has lots of M60
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1774094125861659019?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/coneofarc\/status\/1774124223478239704?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We already know that Italy also has lots of M60 and even the USA still has these. As self-propelled howitzers they would work perfectly.
\nFrance will send their VAB PTGB Renault vehicles and there are about 4,000 \u2013 5,000 of them but it\u2019s unclear how many they will send, they talk about hundreds. However, we have seen videos of other types of fragmentation-protected vehicles as well.<\/p>\n

I feel that now we can basically ring the bell that the Belgorod raids are over for this time. Either it was election influence or they got called in for a reprimand again, that will come out eventually.<\/p>\n

I suspect that the German state must give its permission to the Taurus manufacturer to sell the missile on the international market \u2013 someone who knows this can confirm?<\/p>\n

Now the manufacturer has twice stated first that they can quickly produce large quantities and most recently that they will shut down all production because they get no orders. The latest statement is a truth with modification because no one has bought them since 2020 or thereabouts but it signals that they really want to sell the product.
\nSince the whole world wants the product and there are clearly funds available, it is not unreasonable to me that the German state is putting the brakes on here \u2013 that will come out eventually.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/neythomas\/status\/1774002256192446815?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

At the risk of attacking the wrong source but this one claims that the USA has made it clear that if a single Filipino person in uniform dies as a result of China\u2019s harassment then there will be war with them.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sprinterfactory\/status\/1773994622919843890?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s interesting that at the same time they do everything to de-escalate in Ukraine by not allowing all sorts of things?
\nDoesn\u2019t China have nuclear weapons and does the de-escalation doctrine only apply to Ukraine then?<\/p>\n

Pro-Russian source (probably) but it aligns with rumors that refuse to die that France has had troops in Ukraine since the start of the war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/vicktop55\/status\/1774058065765048605?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s easier to deny when everything is hidden than if you openly station troops in the country and for two years the West has denied. We have called it \u201call of the West\u2019s SOF\u201d in the thread.<\/p>\n

Macron at least seems to have parliamentary support to send troops to Ukraine as open support \u2013 that is interesting.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1774102618710716529?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here comes more news about successful hacker attacks, they are causing great damage.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1774151676611416133?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Here you have UA 17th Tank Brigade, a bit more bite in them than in the Russians\u2019 brigades with unmodified T62s.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/partizan_avn\/status\/1773843478591791435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Putin has also raised the mobilization age from 27 to 30 years \u2013 why then if there is a large base to mobilize from?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d 150,000 can almost be called a thumb when the first estimates came out between 240,000 \u2013 760,000 (based on the units they talked about setting up).<\/p>\n

Really hope France can get the rest of Europe on board so things start moving!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yes, I was hoping for 760,000 so it would become a revolution \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1 What happened to the threatened mobilization, now Putin only dares to mobilize 150,000. 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