{"id":9080,"date":"2024-04-22T11:31:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-22T09:31:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-04-22-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:05:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:05:38","slug":"2024-04-22-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-04-22-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-04-22"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The link below is very exciting, I interpret this as follows \u2013 RU saved high-value targets for quite a while because they had planned to occupy the country Ukraine and wanted to have something to steal.
\nNow in 2024, they are putting all missile capacity into knocking out UA’s economic targets \u2013 at the very least, they have given up on stealing UA infrastructure because they UNDERSTAND that they cannot conquer it.
\nI, as a -positive-positive- person, believe that they have given up and are making one last big strike before choosing to end the war whenever that may be, but I also have documentation that I am diagnosed as positive.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/vicktop55\/status\/1781243972179919293?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Do you remember before UA ran out of LV ammunition when they shot down 95% of the missiles or thereabouts \u2013 it was a funeral at Stavka and sweaty brows during briefings.<\/p>\n

Then I…el came and shot down 99.6% (or whatever it was) of the Iranian missiles in the big Iskander barrage some time ago.<\/p>\n

UA now has an open goal against everything they want to fight in Russia basically, partly Western missiles manage to hit the Russians’ most well-defended targets like airbases (and also knock out all LV in the area), but then they send drones against undefended refineries, oil depots, and substations where RU cannot cover (because they have had too much LV knocked out).<\/p>\n

The same applied to I..el’s retaliation against Iran \u2013 the Iranian command could only sit and take it, nothing significant was shot down.<\/p>\n

We happy amateurs in the thread can see this, so guess if RU and Iran’s analysts see this, but they have already gone all-in and are radicalized, so above all \u2013 China sees this!<\/p>\n

China is processing all information about this war to figure out if they would have any chance for some land grab and their weapons are not light years ahead of RU or Iran’s. Yes, they stole quite a bit of technology from the USA and have some cool systems but overall I think they are a cumbersome organization similar to Russia and that the materiel is not magnitudes better \u2013 just guessing a bit and maybe should look into that before I comment on the matter.
\nChina has naturally come to the conclusion that if they face the US fleet in the waters around China, they will have no fleet after a few months and the same with the air force.
\nThen they will have to sit and watch incoming missiles slowly knocking out all infrastructure before the Han Chinese rise as one and storm the presidential palace.
\nThe other thing China could do is order the People’s Liberation Army forward but then it would have to be India or Russia against their BRIICS buddies in that case.<\/p>\n

China is not completely stupid and they will NEVER actively join this war.
\nHowever, the USA can pressure them too hard so they are forced and I am somewhat worried about that right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/htchpros\/status\/1780792074662723937?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Before I left in early April, we reasoned about whether the USA had already prepared for all materiel to be sent or if they would start thinking in six months and according to their own statements they will take from stockpiles in Europe and send pronto \u2013 all kinds of ammunition could thus be weeks away at best.<\/p>\n

I know I am quite alone in believing that Ukraine will go on the offensive this year but if you look at what they are doing, they are preparing for a huge blow that will bring down the Russian inbred eagle. Now it is Sirsky instead of Zalizhny and I am not used to him yet (because he does not want to talk to me on WhatsApp \ud83d\ude10) but he was the architect behind Kharkiv so we should be able to have high expectations.<\/p>\n

There will be fighting over the entire area this time, the marine corps has received their Combat Boat 90 and can conduct full amphibious combat \u2013 they are 8,000 strong and supported by hundreds in SOF units, like combat divers, and will wreak havoc between Kinburn Spit \u2013 it will definitely be worse than Lindisfarne \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Then I don’t know if you have kept up that they have received helicopters so I suspect we will see air landings in one way or another this year as well, it will probably be their elite units in the Airmobile brigades and relevant SOF units participating in those operations.<\/p>\n

Then all volunteer units + two Belarusian battalions I did not previously know about are positioned along the border with Belarus and the northern Oblasts. RU has already announced that they will tie down just under 50,000 men up there so this already serves its purpose.
\nIt is possible that it could get lively in Kaliningrad and Belarus this year but the West probably has the last word there.<\/p>\n

Sirsky also solved the staffing issue by screening the entire defense force and found hundreds of thousands who had managed to avoid front-line service so instead of mobilizing half a million it became a few hundred thousand \u2013 70% who stayed away from fighting units or whatever it was. I don’t think Sirsky will discharge the veterans but he will promise the army that the war will be decided during 2024.<\/p>\n

This has Zelensky already announced together with plans for an offensive if possible \u2013 read that as “if they get the damn ammunition”.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1777778860911743487?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

UA has received mine clearers, they have new flying mine layers
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/grandparoy2\/status\/1781228972053004636?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

-The elite air force will arrive before summer is probably the latest we have heard and then FAB bombers will be denied access to the fronts. UA does not need air superiority, they have that with drones but they need to deny RU elite aircraft access to the fronts and we are a couple of months away from that.<\/p>\n

The elite air force is likely the critical line for this year’s offensive.<\/p>\n

-If UA gets the amount of ammunition we think they will get, they will also not run out of gas and to our great joy we will see RU scream and cry at the UN and beg to keep Moscow.<\/p>\n

-They have received an enormous amount of armored vehicles including at least 300 tanks during late autumn and spring. They probably have enough fragmentation protection now. Then we must not forget that all countries except Germany have stopped announcing what they send.<\/p>\n

-The strategic offensive reserve is +10 brigades and a large number of brigades at the fronts have had several months to rest and re-equip.<\/p>\n

-Yes, ammunition is missing but it is on its way with a bang. If both the USA and EU send simultaneously it is considerably more than what is needed \u2013 then they have also resourced the next offensive and Putin knows that.<\/p>\n

This is how fun Russian ammunition is, empty casings.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/grandparoy2\/status\/1781565806507352461?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The war will be decided this year, the beginning of April was very bleak but this seems to have gained momentum since the turn of the year so much that those tasked with slowing it down, Sullivan, Mike Johnson, Scholtz, etc. can no longer hold back \u2013 Putin has simply lost control of this now in spring 2024.<\/p>\n

If there is not a major counter-move from China, which there will not be, Putin is in real trouble.<\/p>\n

It is entirely possible that the West will take over the border surveillance against Belarus, and then UA will suddenly have 120,000 soldiers at their disposal. There are persistent rumors that Macron has sent symbolic troops into UA and the US is considering non-combatants. The step to take over border surveillance against a non-belligerent country is not very far, and above all, it is nice that they no longer have to sneak around with the Western soldiers who have already been in the country since 2022, now described as “all of the West’s SOF” \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I know this is a constant discussion, but from my vantage point in my parents’ basement room, the Ukrainian army today is the world’s best infantry with over two years of relevant work experience who have also completed all the mandatory personal development courses in the West.<\/p>\n

They have made a somewhat incredible journey from rather chaotic fighting to well-functioning mechanized warfare, and this year we will see amphibious combat and air landings.<\/p>\n

Ukraine’s deep combat with SOF is an enormous resource that far exceeds many countries in the West, and in drone warfare, they are firmly number one.<\/p>\n

With the upcoming deliveries from the EU and the US and the advanced aircraft, the whack-a-mole game finally turns to Ukraine’s advantage \u2013 they have found the right combo and therefore this war can only end one way \u2013 a Ukrainian smashing victory.<\/p>\n

Hard not to see this in a -positive-positive- light blue glow with soothing elevator music at a moderate volume.<\/p>\n

It has been a real Golgotha walk for Ukraine, but since the turn of the year, the sluice gates have opened and Putin’s entire rigged playing field fails to hold back as piece after piece falls \u2013 has anyone heard from Sullivan about Ukraine in a couple of weeks?<\/p>\n

Ukraine has already raised the ambition level when they started carpet bombing the refineries and they have declared to those who listened earlier that they intend to decolonize Russia, which should make many movements in the West praise them (but they do not).<\/p>\n

The rhetoric from the EU is very tough right now, but anything can happen, and if the West wants Ukraine to show restraint when Russia has generously withdrawn to the 1991 borders to spare the suffering of children, they can easily use EU membership as blackmail to get Ukraine to stop if they are afraid of the unknown.<\/p>\n

In my opinion, a big mistake, but second best would then be a new Cold War where the EU finances the bulwark against the barbarians \u2013 the eastern border. That also works with joint financing and intervention brigades from other countries that annually train in their respective areas with the host country.<\/p>\n

It will be an exciting year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

20 ATACMS took out +20 aircraft. Then there was another attack where 10 took out 10 aircraft.
\nA few hundred and the Russian air force is no more.<\/p>\n

They have received 600 JDAMS \u2013 that will get them far.
\nThey have also received all the Storm Shadow missiles available, they will arrive as they are completed.<\/p>\n

The cluster munitions are on the way too and then millions of HE 155mm.<\/p>\n

-they will have enough for this and the next offensive \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:27 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks and welcome back, nice to see your incurable optimism again!<\/p>\n

I can agree that it looks significantly brighter now that the US has done the only right thing. Russia has not achieved any impressive successes despite Ukraine barely having ammunition to defend itself.
\nOnce the deliveries get going, it can probably turn around!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Your last paragraph is very interesting because then it would actually be in China’s interest to force RU to withdraw to the 1991 borders and end the war. Then force the EU to use the membership weapon to get Ukraine to stop trying to liberate Russia.<\/p>\n

China could have sent tanks, IFVs, advanced aircraft, and missiles but does not, so the support is not dangerously large, I thought?<\/p>\n

Maybe this is something to start thinking about?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks, yes I got a boost from the airport beer, it worked wonders for the optimism.<\/p>\n

Exactly, UA barely has ammunition and RU is going nowhere. The times UA has had ammunition, it has been armageddon for the Russians and soon Ukraine will have ammunition again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:59 \u2013 Johan No.1 The link below is very exciting, I interpret this as follows \u2013 RU saved high-value targets 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