{"id":9127,"date":"2024-05-03T09:06:11","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T07:06:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-03-3\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:36:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:36:17","slug":"2024-05-03-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-03-3\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The shrapnel protection is coming \ud83d\udca5
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/heroiam_slava\/status\/1784780889718735188?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Jumped in as project manager again and it is very intense, and out of four expats who are supposed to be here, we have been two and now I will be alone for a week \u2013 I know it’s a lousy excuse for lower intensity in the thread but I’m trying anyway \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Monthly closing and the losses are generally high in many categories, so it stings badly to wage an offensive war even in April this year of grace. Tanks are as usual low because they are very short on armor and the same goes for MLRS but LV was a bit unclear.
\n-Barbarians fifth highest.
\n-Special equipment third highest
\n-Soft vehicles second highest
\n-IFV fifth highest
\n-Artillery third highest
\nA good month simply for everyone except Putin.<\/p>\n

On my list I have a total of 28 airstrikes on Russian refineries. Some are second flyovers and in all cases it has been a distillation tower that burned down. I see this as quite a hard blow to RU’s refining capacity. Consider that RU has shot Ukraine’s refining capacity to zero during the war (without either Sullivan, the USA, the UN or EIA loudly complaining\u2026) so it is definitely possible.<\/p>\n

Then some headline flew by that 18,000 Russians have deserted just in the Dnipro and southern front areas. Those are very high numbers. Lost the link.<\/p>\n

And Perpetua’s loss list was like a motor show for the Russians, cars, cars, cars. They hold tightly to their tanks nowadays, the few they have left.<\/p>\n

Erik14 also posted an estimate from GUR on how many missiles the Russians have left and how many they can produce \u2013 without revealing the twist plot they are almost out.<\/p>\n

We should have come to the window where UA increases the airstrike intensity ahead of May 9 now reasonably and then there will be a lot of fireworks in the coming week?
\nI am a bit divided about the Kerch bridge \u2013 yes, a strong statement for May 9 but it also serves a war-important function and will be cut when it benefits Ukraine the most, which only Ukraine knows.
\nHowever, it is clear that they are going after LV and radar again which is always the first step in violent Russian death.
\nThere have now been three rounds of airstrikes on refineries recently and as some clever OSINT analyst has already pointed out \u2013 on the way they have passed fuel depots, ammunition depots, headquarters, depots and all kinds of high-value targets and the Russians have not shot down the drones \u2013 Russia is defenseless.<\/p>\n

It greatly pleases me that Ukraine continues its liberation deeds against the refineries, almost as if two years of injustice are beginning to fade.<\/p>\n

It has been expressed from time to time that Ukraine should be allowed to use ATACMS against targets in Russia (“no geographical restrictions”) and now Cameron came out and aired the same. Since it is not happening, I GUESS it is part of the diplomatic and political game \u2013 a warning shot.<\/p>\n

What is quite clear, however, is that at some point Ukraine will use its entire arsenal against targets in Russia if the war continues and Russia has proven completely incapable of protecting even its airbases in Crimea behind a forest of air defenses, which instead are being knocked out \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Without mocking the Avdiivka breakthrough, which it can probably be considered now, the Russian command has really exposed itself as soon as Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive. Their defense has not kept up and they will defend in unfavorable terrain where they stand.
\nAccording to the unit map, the Russians have about forty (40) brigades in the area against Ukraine’s 15, so it is easy to understand that Ukraine is retreating.<\/p>\n

What is interesting, however, is that Klishchivka holds because the Russians really want to take that hill.
\nSame with Krunky, the Russians have really put everything into throwing the marine corps back over the river and failed.<\/p>\n

Ukraine will not win this war by taking heavy losses and bleeding the Russians dry, it won’t work.
\nHowever, they have consistently fought even during the offensive with a loss ratio of 1:5 and then they win but the ammunition shortage in autumn, winter and spring has been devastating. What was not there suddenly was, so it was all political fox games. Terrible \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

We have gone through more than once what is needed and at the risk of sounding repetitive.
\n-give Ukraine everything they point at and plenty of shrapnel protection \u2013 this seems to be coming now.
\n-allow them to strike all targets they want in Russia \u2013 they are doing that now.
\n-remove geographical restrictions on Western weapons \u2013 maybe coming
\n-have recruitment of volunteers throughout Europe, salary and veteran pension from the homeland for the citizen \u2013 won’t happen but it would broaden Ukraine’s recruitment base considerably and volunteers are often better soldiers than those forced in against their will.
\n-Soft takeover of the border with Belarus, like Polish SOF in customs officers’ uniforms and French “police” in police uniforms (the Foreign Legion) selling it as support to curb smuggling and protect Belarus against Ukrainian criminals? <\/p>\n

Then Budanov must be allowed to continue his disruptive activities in Russia because it is the whole that will make Russia withdraw its claws and I personally don’t think Ukraine as a country can handle another spring offensive 2023 style. Then the demands to give up land for peace will come internally in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

If the refineries keep burning, rebel movements in the partial republics rise and Ukraine retakes Crimea, it should act as a deterrent to Russia.<\/p>\n

The first two are relatively simple and ongoing but for the third Ukraine needs to start striking the Russian airbases and army bases that lie like a string of pearls along the border with Ukraine and have largely been spared. If they can be sprayed with tungsten in a couple of rounds, the staging areas for vehicles that are neatly lined up as for a parade will be burning wrecks.<\/p>\n

Storm Shadow and Taurus can be used on fuel, ammunition depots and headquarters.<\/p>\n

We are probably slowly heading towards this but I guess everything will be needed. I am still shocked today by the Russian soldiers’ willingness to die, if it is not Ukraine that frees them they take their own lives or each other’s lives. BUT what we do not often see and hear about is all those who have deserted and 18,000 at the southern front and Dnipro is a pleasant number.<\/p>\n

We can be confident that Sirsky has a plan and what has now been delivered and is being delivered basically reveals it, I think. There is nothing that can put a spoke in the wheel except if the West drags its feet with actual deliveries or starts setting unreasonable conditions on their use, or uses the deliveries as pressure to get them to stop other things \u2013 refinery liberations for example.<\/p>\n

The refineries seem to be the single hottest potato and as long as they continue, one must assume that the whole stays on track.<\/p>\n

Would like to see further invasion of Russia as it draws troops from Ukraine and hope the West has not waved the damn yellow cards again.<\/p>\n

The Khalinousky regiment and the second Belarusian unit have now taken the step to become a rebel movement, and last time this happened, Lukashenko survived only because Russia sent internal troops into Belarus and suppressed the protests. If these internal troops are occupied elsewhere, the popular revolution will likely come to Belarus as well.
\nAnd if Kaliningrad sees that Belarus is moving towards brighter times, they probably also want to improve their situation, one might think.<\/p>\n

Yes, China is lurking in the shadows and occasionally opposing, but they can’t do much, so it’s time to loosen the leash and let Ukraine conduct the warfare they believe will win the war.<\/p>\n

We are not quite there yet, but post-win Ukraine must be treated fairly for a very simple reason. If they feel unfairly treated by the EU, they will become Europe’s new mafia when a few million unemployed soldiers have to find alternative employment.
\nThey will need a deal with the EU to finance a disproportionately large defense force, which we partly pay for.
\nThe road to the EU will be long but must be fair.
\nA reconstruction program partly financed by the EU.
\nThen the EU should open the market for UA exports, for example electricity production and other things.
\nFree movement is tricky because it will be ruthlessly exploited to bring crime into the EU, but at some point it must happen (not to be confused with refugees).<\/p>\n

As usual, it’s hard to see this as anything other than -positive-positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Justice is coming.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3krcdbnh2wc2r<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Police in Tbilisi holding hands with a protester
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3krasydl6xc2q<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:59 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

I thought the Russians would have worn themselves out after Avdiivka, but they have managed to keep up the momentum, which is of course not so difficult when the opponent is short on ammunition. Then maybe they are pressured, of course, Putin probably wants something to brag about on the ninth. Maybe they will reach their culmination point in connection with that.
\nThey can’t keep going the way they are right now for much longer.<\/p>\n

But soon all deliveries will probably be in place so Ukraine can turn this around!<\/p>\n

Thanks for today’s essay!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks yourself, yes Russian low point meets Ukrainian wall of Bradleys, or something \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thanks for the interesting link.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Oh, exciting things are happening in Georgia<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Damn, forgot to switch account \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, I have tried to find time but it is completely impossible right now, absolute chaos with a customer who basically changes their mind every day and one of the bigger dredging contractors who needs weeks if not months notice instead of one day.
\nNot really my role but to prevent everything from crashing I have stepped in as some kind of puppet master and discreetly pull everyone’s strings so some kind of balance is maintained and so far it has worked.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:12 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Again? \ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russian local success up in Kupiansk<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1786492067197145438?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Oh well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:21 \u2013 Johan No.1 The shrapnel protection is coming \ud83d\udca5 https:\/\/x.com\/heroiam_slava\/status\/1784780889718735188?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w Jumped in as project manager again and it is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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