{"id":9129,"date":"2024-05-04T09:21:08","date_gmt":"2024-05-04T07:21:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:36:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:36:40","slug":"2024-05-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1776665349192077742?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

There is a strange dissonance right now between what the West signals that they think Ukraine should do and what the problems are and what is being done.
\nFirstly, the West has repeatedly promised long-term financial support that is sufficient, the latest being the UK.
\nThen the production of ammunition has now reached the level Ukraine needs to be able to fire its 10,000 (maybe fewer?) per day.<\/p>\n

If you remember the miracle at Vuhledar and the death trap Avdiivka early on, the Russian advances did not even come within shooting distance of the attack targets; they were wiped out during the approach by drones and artillery several miles away and suffered astronomical losses.<\/p>\n

When Ukraine ran out of ammunition because the West completely stopped deliveries, even though there was plenty to deliver as we now know, Ukraine had to start fighting the barbarians with close combat again.<\/p>\n

That means they come within shooting range of the attack targets and can start identifying where the defense is, which then has to reveal itself.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t remember exactly when, but Russia began to discover that the FAB bombs were effective; the impact pattern is a bit so-so but if you put a couple on a coordinate there is a high risk of a direct hit and they take out reinforced positions or bunkers (I think) in a huge crater where the defense is buried alive.<\/p>\n

The blogger described well yesterday how the 115th Mech defended themselves up at Ochertyne and there were \u201c20-30\u201d airstrikes per day with presumably FAB bombs. That is an enormous amount of death raining down on the defense, targeted death they cannot defend against.<\/p>\n

Ukraine sacrificed a firing unit from Patriot, I think (as we guessed cleverly \ud83d\ude00), to be able to shoot down the traps but since then they have been restrained so that Russia even uses FAB against Kharkiv nowadays.
\nAnd Western deliveries of advanced aircraft have been conspicuously absent.<\/p>\n

So the single biggest reason Russia is advancing is that the West betrayed Ukraine and stopped sending ammunition and that Ukraine cannot yet effectively combat the FAB bomb traps \u2013 also the West\u2019s fault.<\/p>\n

Remember Afghanistan when the US gave Stingers to the Taliban and Soviet AH-64s became less of a threat and maintenance of bases became harder. It has taken the West over two years to send advanced aircraft.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the narrative in the West is that Ukraine\u2019s biggest problem is low manpower. They were low on manpower in 2022 and the Home Guard took horrific losses in Popasna. Early 2023 saw a 1:9 loss ratio for Wagner around Bakhmut and the defense held out.<\/p>\n

Of course, Ukraine needs a personnel reserve and many units have soldiers who have fought continuously for two years, which is irreparable when the war ends unfortunately, but that is not the problem. The problem is that Russia now reaches the defensive positions and forces Ukraine to reveal itself and then the FAB bombs rain down. Had the West continued sending ammunition, they would have been wiped out a few miles from the attack targets again.<\/p>\n

Then ISW has a strange argument.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/arturrehi\/status\/1786315090007851248?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nConsidering that Putin wants a low-intensity war and the longer the war goes on, the greater the risk that China gets involved, this was almost the dumbest thing I\u2019ve heard. Now maybe I\u2019m jumping ahead again and no material will be delivered of what was promised before 2025 despite promises of May-June, but then the West might as well give up on this and let Russia win because I don\u2019t think it will get any clearer than this, right, Russia is advancing right now.<\/p>\n

Here you have a summary and Russia\u2019s problems with recruitment, especially the part about Russia being weak in autumn 2022 and the West holding back materiel, which makes one furious.
\nOtherwise, Russia seems to have quite big problems succeeding with their \u201cquantity is a quality in itself\u201d.
\nAn interesting anecdote is that in 1945 Russia had a shortage of personnel reserves in quite a few age groups, they were that badly affected, but then the war was won, I learned in the thread from some genius.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/stateofukraine\/status\/1786181552210149828?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

How do we know the West is discussing how to stop the Russians\u2019 \u201cdark fleet\u201d in the Baltic Sea? Because Russia is threatening Denmark with overwhelming force if they stop their shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3krnhzarfrc2d<\/a><\/p>\n

Then we have some rather sad news, local Russian success up in the Kupiansk area but it merges with the overall here, they attack and identify the defense and then rain FAB over it and attack again. Apparently a lot of armor.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3krnezf45oc26<\/a><\/p>\n

Revolutionary, not so much, the drone on the left probably survives once one can guess so then it becomes a very expensive suicide drone that Ukraine manufactures for 200 EUR themselves.
\nThe other with the weapon station looks almost unusable but we\u2019ll see.
\nAnyway, it\u2019s a company wanting to advertise their products by sending a number to Ukraine, which has probably been the case with most things throughout the war I think. Limited quantity for PR and beta testing.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1786451985350193623?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Erik14 posted yesterday that Gazprom is making its first loss in 25 years and that it was large. One must not forget that the figures are cooked so the loss is probably at least triple \ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n

This is Igor so a little restraint but the 45th Spetsnaz is ready to act if Putin arrests more from the Russian MoD
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1786406121722581057<\/a><\/p>\n

Erik14 provided the big positive analysis yesterday which one can basically only agree with so it becomes -positive-positive as usual.<\/p>\n

If now Western weapons are allowed to be used against targets in Russia, the launch platforms for Iskander might live dangerously. There are probably 45 or so up at the northern border a bit inside Russia launching their missiles. If they have already been moved, there is no shortage of fuel depots, ammunition stores, and larger staffs. Everything has been pulled north of the border and big is good so logistics became simple now that they have been virtually spared from Western weapons. The drones are slow after all and quite a few are shot down but remember the film when a Storm Shadow passes the S400 battery and they stand swearing as it disappears over the horizon. And ATACMS are probably unstoppable too.<\/p>\n

Then one can guess there will be a JDAMS campaign against high-value targets within JDAMS range when the F-16 arrives. Now the US, UK, and France have sent that ammunition in large quantities.
\nAt least I expect something similar to when HIMARS first appeared, an enormous carpet of death over 1-2 months just magnitudes worse.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has received \u2013 JDAMS, more Storm Shadow, F-16, ATACMS 300km, glide bombs, and Taurus just has to appear soon. Then the rocket launchers will have to handle the front-line pre-emptive strikes together with short-range ATACMS. No shortage of 155mm wheeled howitzers ahead with the production pace they have on Bohdana and the French with their Cesars.
\nUkraine should also have Grom2 and some Tochka U left, right?
\nThen they have promised long-range drones by the thousands.<\/p>\n

According to earlier information, F-16 is probably the critical line for some larger Ukrainian movements and then they must be allowed to operate for a while first.
\nBut before that happens, we will see a carpet of death spread out on the Russian side that they are completely unable to do anything about, and the amount of ammunition is magnitudes greater than in 2022 and 2023.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Italy is also sending Storm Shadow, excuse me.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:21 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks!<\/p>\n

I actually think there is some truth in ISW\u2019s reasoning but it is risky (can the West hold out or will we get tired), moreover it would require Ukraine to get so many air defenses that they can stop 99% of all incoming, otherwise the risk is high, both that they bleed out, and that the civilian population starts to give up.<\/p>\n

The best thing would still be if Ukraine gets everything they need to end the war as soon as possible, but if they don\u2019t get that, they may have to settle for trying to freeze the fronts as ISW suggests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I don\u2019t think Ukraine can handle another major setback from a faltering West and the longer it goes on, the greater the risk.
\nChina has so far kept calm and if Ukraine just gets all the weapons they need inside the country, they can press on without yellow cards.<\/p>\n

To then gamble that the West will keep up deliveries over several years feels a bit risky. But well\u2026 maybe that\u2019s what the MIC wants \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Regarding artillery production, unfortunately it is not yet in full swing. The US aims to produce 70-80,000 per month by the end of 2024 and I have seen a figure that they have currently reached 39,000\/month.<\/p>\n

If I remember correctly, Europe\u2019s combined production would also land around there by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Then there are others like South Korea, etc.
\nbut to get to 10,000\/day, 300,000\/month is needed. Unfortunately, it will probably take a while before new production reaches that level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

It\u2019s risky whichever way they choose to go.. If they launch a major offensive and fail, it could break them. On the other hand, even if they choose to wait but manage to freeze the fronts, there is a risk that over time they lose support..<\/p>\n

I really hope they get everything they need so they can push forward. They should have gotten that already when the war started (or at least when it became clear they were fully prepared to defend themselves and that they managed to make the Russians turn back before reaching Kyiv).<\/p>\n

But it sounds positive now because it sounds like more and more are starting to realize what we understood a long time ago. \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Imagine if we were generals or Chiefs of Defense \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I think it was one manufacturer at one site that now churned out 39,000\/month.<\/p>\n

Then if you remember the EU initiative with one million shells in March, it almost reached that?
\nFrance has now allocated all its 155mm production to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then these 10,000\/day are not necessarily all 155mm and for example Bulgaria\u2019s forges are running hot with Eastern bloc calibers.<\/p>\n

Many long contracts are now signed.<\/p>\n

But maybe I\u2019m wrong and it is as you say the combined production \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

At most during the spring offensive, Ukraine fired about 6,000-7,000 shells per day so I don\u2019t really know where those 10,000\/day come from.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

On the Kherson-Crimea front, it seems that Russian local commanders are in a state of panic, as Ukrainian marines have managed to expand the Krynky bridgehead westwards. Over the course of the past twenty-four hours, eleven attacks were attempted by the enemy, all aimed at reversing recent progress. Without success. \ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29\ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Well, that was supposed to be a reply to Erik14\u2019s post above but the message probably got through \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Hope you\u2019re right that 39k was one company.
\nI thought it wasn\u2019t just about new production in March but if they reached the annual goal of one million then they have already reached 80k+ per year. That\u2019s really good if so.
\nThen they would at least be up to 4k\/day already.<\/p>\n

10k\/day should at least be the goal so they reach Russia\u2019s level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:25 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1776665349192077742?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w There is a strange dissonance right now between what the West signals that 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