{"id":9141,"date":"2024-05-09T07:58:15","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T05:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-09-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:37:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:37:50","slug":"2024-05-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1787844867747364926<\/a><\/p>\n

Earlier in the thread, we discussed whether UA is trying to extract fuel and simply create the largest fuel shortage in world history. It is my conviction that refineries in western Russia are heavily targeted and that those in eastern Russia do contribute to the total, but it is difficult to reach western Russia. Throughout 2024, UA has also carpet-bombed oil depots, and several tanks were destroyed overnight.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1788403844558528629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

On the one hand, they knock out existing fuel, but it will also no longer be possible to store fuel in the depot going forward, and it takes a long time to build fuel depots.
\nThe last step would probably be to start knocking out fuel reserves inside Ukraine, and I recall the blogger linked an attack in Luhansk the other day.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1788064967142379528?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

What they are reasonably after here is to create a fuel shortage for the barbarian horde in Ukraine. Now, the quick thinker might say that RU has less armor left, but all maintenance must reach the fronts, and for that, fuel is needed\u2014artillery, generators, golf carts, motorcycles, and the few tanks left all need fuel.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1788403844558528629?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Belgorod has also been heavily drone-attacked, so Budanov is not exactly resting on his laurels.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1788438294537130397?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And to my ever-great joy \u2013 another refinery carpet-bombed
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ks2dgmytur2e<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is quite strange, Rheinmetall has the capacity to produce more ammunition but has not received orders\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jurgen_nauditt\/status\/1788427137873011188?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Chinese suicide drones that should arrive at the front soon if one is to guess
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/zlatti_71\/status\/1787971820651511964?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Also, in northern Luhansk, RU is advancing and trying to reach the Oskil River near Kisharivka. It was winter 2023 when I wrote that it could get messy up there, so nearly 1.5 years later, they have gotten out of the starting blocks. Reaching the Oskil River and securing the northern flank is presumably a prioritized goal?
\nAccording to unit maps, there is mainly armor up there, and the Twitter gods have posted information that there are many mechanical failures.
\nIt seems to have been cloudy in Ukraine, and then the drone weapon’s effectiveness plummets.<\/p>\n

What an epic miscalculation by the West to stop all deliveries after having resourced the spring offensive, I am beginning to suspect the worst about the West these days, and with all the discussions about peace, maybe they tried to force Zelensky into a peace solution, but he flatly refused and referred to his peace plan of the 1991 borders. But my goodness, that the West had not prepared the deliveries in time anyway \u2013 have we slept through this war?<\/p>\n

Then I think it takes far too long for the ammunition to reach the units, so the time between saying that you are bidding on it now until you actually do it seems long, and that is downright dishonest.
\nIt is not very difficult to empty a depot and transport it over a day to a rear depot in Ukraine, actually.
\nThat said, we have now reached the point where anecdotes come in an increasingly steady stream that ammunition has reached the units.<\/p>\n

Now something of interest happened \u2013 the UK went out and removed geographical restrictions on their weapons, and the rumor of the French legion being in Ukraine is very persistent.
\nFirst came the nuclear exercises as a letter in the mail from Putin, the old tired threat.
\nThen the UK and French ambassadors were summoned to the Kremlin; they were filmed on their way out.
\nThe Russians are spinning this hard that both the UK and France have backed down and that Russia threatened to strike targets in these countries if they did not back down and much more.
\nNow it remains to be seen whether Storm Shadow will strike targets in Russia or not and if the legion is really in Ukraine. The entire West has had personnel in Ukraine during the war, but now it would be the first time it is publicly disclosed.
\nWhatever this is, it is a significant escalation from the West met with concern from Russia.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/dougamacgregor\/status\/1787614688408117537?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Now that I..el is entering Rafah, which is H..as last stronghold, maybe the war is over this time in a month or so. I\u2026el has, in my opinion, good reasons to try to wipe out H\u2026as, but then it is crucial that they are lightning-fast to normalize the situation \u2013 that is their responsibility and no one else’s.
\nIf they fail at that out of arrogance or otherwise, they risk a serious escalation in the region and that Western support will falter.
\nI try to listen to what various representatives say, and H\u2026as is uncompromising \u2013 I..el shall be wiped out, so staying and letting their hard core survive is not something I..el would consider a solution.
\nHowever, it is now crucial for I..el not to ignite the fire in the rest of MENA.
\nI think that conflict clearly shows that something that would take “a few months” always spirals out of control as conflicts always do, and especially urban combat is very difficult.<\/p>\n

The big problem for Russia, which is now clarified by Ukraine, is that the barrels wear out. The more you shoot, the faster, and RU shoots significantly more than UA. RU cannot manufacture new barrels, I believe, and they have already heavily cannibalized among remaining artillery in depots.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/talkrealopinion\/status\/1787904119014891611?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

RU seems to produce or modify about 360 BMP3s per year, roughly a month’s losses.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ian_matveev\/status\/1787896684917264882?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And if you subtract MTLB, there may be about 5,000 BMPs left, all versions and conditions.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jonpy99\/status\/1787571461688828049?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The latest is that 90% of the interest on frozen Russian oligarch dollars goes to Ukraine; each country decides what they buy and send to Ukraine
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1787803375137914958?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Kadyrov is apparently alive
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1787860488950256066?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

When it comes to recruiting someone for Russian interests \u2013 honey traps or bribes are the classics, but I think groups very disappointed with Sweden should be easy to recruit from since they already want a revolution, and then you just add a bit of Marxism and link to Russia. Another thing that comes up is threats \u2013 professional criminals who can carry out assignments for RU to threaten people where the police drop the preliminary investigation without leads \u2013 then many young parents probably take the money instead after five OGs knock on the door on a Friday night and kindly inform them that they should. In times when the monopoly on violence can no longer investigate murders and rapes, such things probably go under the radar to a large extent, reasonably?<\/p>\n

Now we have reached the turning point where Ukraine has received ammunition, the anecdotes turn into a deluge, and the artillery tubes light up again \u2013 the ammunition shortage is behind us and everything will become -positive-positive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Thanks!<\/p>\n

The depots and refineries being taken out are probably the most positive thing right now.
\nOf course, this causes problems for the Russian army, but since they surely also get priority when deliveries have to be taken from further and further away, it probably causes problems for the rest of Russia in turn. Soon it will only be the arms industry that keeps the Russian economy afloat, and that is just a deep hole that adds no real value at all.<\/p>\n

The shortage of workers in the gas and oil industry also contributes, now that everyone is supposed to manufacture weapons. Do they even have people to try to rebuild what is destroyed? (Admittedly, they might have surplus personnel the fewer refineries and depots they have left.)<\/p>\n

It’s tragic that the West is so slow that it might end up with us having to wait for Russia’s economy to collapse.
\nIt will be a costly experience for the West, but Ukraine will pay an extremely high price for the hesitation.<\/p>\n

The Russian population might get tired eventually, but it will take time. Right now, when everyone has work and wages are high, it probably feels good, a bit like peeing yourself outside in the cold winter.
\nWhen they notice that everything else starts to fail, infrastructure that is not maintained, healthcare that doesn’t work, and when private companies have to shut down, it will probably change. I also wonder how they view the investments to rebuild in occupied areas? It is mainly pure propaganda, but when the money is spent there and not in Russia, it could also give rise to some discontent.<\/p>\n

It is still the case that the best option is to give Ukraine everything they need so that we get a quick end. Incomprehensible that those who make the decisions do not understand this (or understood it too late). Luckily, it sounds better now at least. Let’s hope the nuclear threats don’t take hold so that people start regretting it.<\/p>\n

Now there is still a lot of equipment and ammunition on the way, and we have to keep our fingers crossed that it is enough to stop the Russians’ advance and preferably to push them back.<\/p>\n

When Avdiivka was taken, I thought the Russians would lose momentum, but it was the opposite. We’ll see how it goes now that we’ve passed “Victory Day” whether they will calm down or continue while they have some advance.<\/p>\n

I’m not negative but rather more neutral until I see more in place and we get to see a clearer result of the deliveries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Well written as always MXT \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:56 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Russian refinery Privyi Zavod in Kaluga heavily bombed \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/teoyaomiquu\/status\/1788720450773623209?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:05 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:02 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1787844867747364926 Earlier in the thread, we discussed whether UA is trying to extract fuel 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