{"id":9149,"date":"2024-05-13T10:53:51","date_gmt":"2024-05-13T08:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-13-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:39:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:39:13","slug":"2024-05-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1786774264596631605?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And the Mech Lions
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1789648668103954602?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

High losses are all well and good but if these are the “African Corps” losses where they have recruited personnel from countries in Africa, it almost becomes a proxy war, but perhaps it is still a mix for now. Everyone talks about Russia’s endless personnel reserves, but recruitment from minority peoples in the Russian Federation, Cuba, Africa, Nepal, and India is happening on a large scale \u2013 why would the arch-Asian Russia want soldiers from Africa if they have an endless personnel reserve?<\/p>\n

The truth is probably that they dare not mobilize from Muscovite Russia on a large scale, we already saw that back in January 2023 and it still holds in May 2024, so time has almost confirmed it.
\nThat they have unlimited tanks is a myth, that they have unlimited soldiers also starts to look like a better joke when they are heavily recruiting in Africa. We know the artillery is declining but they have replaced it with drones and FAB bombs. The FAB bomb droppers will probably be in danger in a few weeks but the drone weapon is here to stay.<\/p>\n

Why didn\u2019t Budanov drone-bomb the May 9 parade in Moscow?
\nThey have drones in abundance, the symbolic value would have been sky-high and all the leaders stood in a geographical place known in advance and Ukraine has stated that they have drones that are immune to EW weapons.
\nHard to see anything else than that they refrained for some reason, whatever that may have been?
\nSome launch ramps for 100 small short-range suicide drones and if they don\u2019t have autonomous ones, different indoor locations running FPV drones they release out of windows and fly straight into the parade and then exfiltrate?
\nOr long-range ones that start from different places in Russia with coordinates loaded for Putin\u2019s little stool with an extra thick cushion?<\/p>\n

It is possible to win wars in different ways \u2013 a quick decision as we saw at the start of World War II, through attrition and “resource war” \u2013 the one who can produce the most wins, or by manipulating the world, which South Africa experienced. Then you can fight with guerrillas or liberation movements but that usually requires internal divisions within the country and finally a nationwide underdog defensive war, or war, where you simply go all in with your entire population as in Vietnam.
\nOne is sometimes tricked into thinking that all wars do not require continuous resources but they do, and almost exclusively there is a third party behind guerrillas and liberation movements.
\nThe interesting thing about this war is that Ukraine uses all different types of warfare, an asymmetric warfare simply \u2013 a nationwide defensive war with extensive system-threatening sabotage in Russia and a “resource war” where the one who can build the most tanks wins.<\/p>\n

They were quite close to a quick victory in 2022 if the West hadn\u2019t half-slept and Zalizhny was stopped, so I find it hard to doubt that Ukraine will win this.
\nBut it has taken far too long and hundreds of thousands of soldiers are mentally unrecoverable as they have simply been in combat for too long and a couple hundred thousand are probably disabled.
\nSure, it is possible to rebuild infrastructure and housing but the question is always how ambitious it will be and I guess that when this is over there will still be hundreds of thousands with demolished houses and no money to rebuild them again.<\/p>\n

In a broader perspective, a longer war is unfortunate as it constantly increases the risk of global conflict or a serious recession that makes the West pull back.
\nOctober 7 with Venezuela\u2019s sabre-rattling, Houthi rocket attacks in the Red Sea, Iran\u2019s piracy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the African Corps\u2019 entry into Africa was an ambitious attempt to raise the global temperature.
\nThen subversive activity in Europe has increased manifold and at least I am quite sure that our time\u2019s 1968 movement has Russian influence.<\/p>\n

That is why it was so pleasing to see China go to the EU and then not visit Putin on his big day \u2013 signal politics as good as any.
\nChina has also asked Iran to sit down.
\nAnd the visit to Macron was interesting because Macropoleon is Putin\u2019s biggest enemy right now.
\nI usually get (mildly) accused of China being my blind spot so I won\u2019t push this too far but there is a chance that China is seriously trying to end the war and has understood that it only works with the 1991 borders, we\u2019ll see. That Xi goes on a reconciliation trip to the EU instead of visiting Russia is new at least.<\/p>\n

Want to push this again from Erik14 early May, a very important puzzle piece, one of the more important \u2013 very short on missiles!!
\nGUR named the approximate stocks of missiles in Russia:
\n\u2022 40 Zircon: production rates \u2013 up to 10 missiles\/month;
\n\u2022 400 Onyx\/Onyx-M: production rate \u2013 up to 10 missiles\/month.
\n\u2022 270 Kalibr: production rate \u2013 30-40 missiles\/month.
\n\u2022 45 Kh-69: production rate \u2013 1-3 missiles\/month
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/maks23.bsky.social\/post\/3krgrsmtgnk2t<\/a><\/p>\n

On my list I now have a total of 30 major bombings of Russian refineries, a couple are second overflights.
\nSo around 15 oil depots should have been attacked since the turn of the year as a couple of the liberation acts against the refineries are second overflights.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1789582450324070727?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The following will not happen but describes Putin\u2019s ambitions,
\nThe “sinking bomb” had a link sometime ago that Putin is ready to “test the West” by attacking Estonia and Sweden (Gotland?).
\nhttps:\/\/www.lbc.co.uk\/news\/putin-ready-invasion-nato-nations-test-west-polish-spy-boss\/<\/a>
\nUnclear why not Finland and everything is of course a one-sided statement from Poland but\u2026
\nRussia was confident enough in the West\u2019s passivity that they launched their three-day operation against Ukraine.
\nRussia was also so sure of themselves that they started the global escalation on October 7, 2023.
\nThey are also confident in the West\u2019s passivity towards their recolonization of Africa and their shadow fleet that traffics the Baltic Sea and violates sanctions as well as all kinds of environmental laws.
\nThat they are trying to overthrow Moldova is a poorly kept secret and Putin has no doubts about it \u2013 he knows the West will do nothing.
\nPutin also feels that support for Ukraine is manageable \u2013 there was some kind of compromise where several countries promised large support and then sent very little for a long time.
\nWhat happened in agreement with Putin the first two years we may never know perhaps but that the West tried to force Zelensky into negotiations last autumn I consider a reasonable assumption.
\nThe only one who has really seriously worried Putin is the unpredictable Macropoleon.
\nThe other thing Putin doesn\u2019t like is that the UK has removed its geographical restrictions but not before an SS explodes inside Russia, then they have done it, right?
\nThe Baltic states are definitely next in line along with Moldova if Putin is not forced to back down.
\nI also worry that the world as a whole is beginning to feel that the West is weak, the tone from rogue states is quite high.
\nWe all understand that the West would win a global conflict but if it is allowed to escalate, the suffering will be magnitudes worse than it is today, many more Ukrainians.<\/p>\n

Have you realized that until 1989 we had the Soviet Union with its saber-rattling, proxy wars, direct wars, occupations, and subversive activities.
\nThen we had 25 calm years and after that we are actually there again with the Russian threat I grew up with and trained against during conscription.
\nWhat is the normal state \u2013 Russia today as it was for 80 years or a “democratic” Russia as it was for 15 years?
\nBefore WW2 ended, it wasn’t much better either, so we can add 25 years to that \u2013 95 years.
\nAnd before that was the Tsarist regime with all its wars.
\nThe point then becomes, what makes the West believe that Russia will return to the democratic 15 years when they have behaved exactly like this since the beginning of the 1900s and even since the 1700s?<\/p>\n

Very interesting, Siberian battalion urges Russian soldiers up in Kharkiv to desert.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ksc4mfjsok26<\/a><\/p>\n

I found this interesting regarding T\u2026p and the 2016 election
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/sethabramson\/status\/1787543910509666332?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine now has a domestically produced missile for big bangs in the Kremlin \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/arturrehi\/status\/1787477413795926097?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A Russian firing position for GRK with a movable camouflaged roof \u2013 starting to look semi-professional \ud83d\ude10
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1787400922831659071?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks Johan!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Thank you, you read it yesterday, right?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
18:54 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

There was a lot going on this weekend, so I just skimmed through the posts. I’ll try to catch up tonight!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Another high-ranking officer arrested in Russia.<\/p>\n

Considering those arrested earlier and Patrushev’s resignation, it\u2019s starting to feel like another failed coup almost?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1790140347584070043?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:39 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Two more at the MoD who are rumored \ud83d\ude33<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/igorsushko\/status\/1790144889294074283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Interesting!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:30 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1786774264596631605?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w And the Mech Lions https:\/\/x.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1789648668103954602?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w High losses are all well and good but […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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