{"id":9177,"date":"2024-05-30T13:29:42","date_gmt":"2024-05-30T11:29:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-30-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:47:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:47:36","slug":"2024-05-30-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-30-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Putin is currently struggling with his very small beak and his small sluggish claws to make this war a frozen conflict; this struggle is being fought on all levels. The only way for this war not to become a frozen conflict is for Ukraine to gain offensive capability, and we are almost there \u2013 very close now, so close you can almost touch it. There are a couple of things that are directly harmful to Putin \u2013 missiles his air defense cannot shoot down, decent advanced aircraft, striking targets on Russian soil, and drones at refineries.<\/p>\n

What have some leaders in the West protested most loudly against?
\n-refinery fires without Putin mentioning it with a word.
\n-the invasion of Belgorod without Putin mentioning it with a word.
\n-advanced aircraft \u2013 Scholz was a big opponent and the US has delayed F-16s for many years.
\n-geographical restrictions on weapons and yes, Putin threatened with nuclear weapons in London over that.<\/p>\n

Why are some leaders in the West upset about things that harm Russia and potentially win the war for Ukraine?<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the electronics from the US and Germany are used via many -stan countries to manufacture Russian missiles without geographical restrictions that level entire daycare centers and bury children alive.<\/p>\n

And at the same time, Iran, China, and North Korea have no geographical restrictions at all on the weapons they send to Russia, and no one protested when Ukraine\u2019s power infrastructure was completely knocked out, or Kharkiv \u2013 as far as I recall, the reaction to Kharkiv was very lukewarm from the West.<\/p>\n

Now almost a dozen countries have officially confirmed that their weapons may absolutely be used against Russian territory, almost all of which are NATO countries. Does this feel like NATO has a common strategy when only the US and Germany are fighting against it, that they are united as some seem to believe?<\/p>\n

And at least five NATO countries will send troops to Ukraine \u2013 common strategy anyone and consensus on the matter?
\nI think it looks like half of NATO says no and the other half yes, and they have thrown away the script?<\/p>\n

And even in the US, Blinken says yes and Sullivan says no a couple of times a week \u2013 consensus?<\/p>\n

And I think it\u2019s starting to look like the US and Germany are being left behind, so in a galaxy near us, everything will break loose very soon, the walls are bulging out dangerously much.
\nZelensky himself has said that it seems like the West does not want Ukraine to win the war, straight from the horse\u2019s mouth and how Ukraine perceives it despite all the beautiful explanatory models so the West\u2019s reputation is not tarnished.
\nIn a nutshell.<\/p>\n

This was going to be a more sour post than usual but then Ukraine sinks ships, bombs refineries, and the US (maybe) approves air defense strikes against targets in Russia, so the positivity meter started ticking upwards again, not quite trampoline level but positive \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a bit hard to let go of the US and Germany though \u2013 when we in the thread, like the best detectives, figured out that it was a patriot battery that Ukraine used for hit and runs and took out about a dozen advanced aircraft, the cheering was deafening.
\nGuess who didn\u2019t cheer \u2013 the US and Germany, they were absolutely pissed.
\nGermany because it was their battery and the US because they are the US and believe they can decide how other countries\u2019 equipment is used.<\/p>\n

They both threatened to withdraw all support as usual, so Ukrainian soldiers continue to be buried alive under FAB bombs without Scholz or Sullivan being disturbed the least, they sleep well in Ukrainian blood and dead children.
\nAnd above all \u2013 did Russia make a big deal out of this jumping on their red lines? I heard nothing?
\nNo, not a damn thing and the same with the refineries, silence.<\/p>\n

So either Putin has a direct line to these two or they are so scared that the slightest sound makes them jump, there is probably no other reasonable explanation for how else would they know what hurts Putin the most?
\nThey could have refused Bulgaria sending 300 BTR-60s for example, but they didn\u2019t.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1795450272539443496?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I have to take back my sour comments about not sending Gripen \u2013 credit to our government that they planned to send it and my biggest possible apology for my rudeness \ud83d\udc4d
\nIf I understand this correctly, it was imminent but to not confuse Ukraine, only F-16s are sent \u2013 the worst excuse imaginable.<\/p>\n

David D believes, like the blogger, that the US is active on the issue and David D has a wall map with pinned units so he has high credibility.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1795472800557220224?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then I wonder what would happen if we sent them anyway, can\u2019t we just do it, Macron is seriously opposing the US here on most issues and sending troops for example?
\nIt is crystal clear to me that F-16s could have arrived months ago. Denmark said \u201cin a few weeks\u201d and then the prime minister changed it to \u201ca few months\u201d when a WhatsApp ping went off live on air.<\/p>\n

No one seems to want to believe that the US thinks of the US first and above all its own business or that Germany has been infiltrated since reunification \u2013 Occam\u2019s razor is always applicable except in this case apparently.<\/p>\n

We have discussed IKV91, Stridsvagn S, and Pbv302 in rounds and concluded that PBV302 was used the longest in some form. Crazy fun that we are sending all that remain. The thread\u2019s suggestions turned out to be right again. Stridsvagn S are probably all destroyed and IKV91 as well?
\nI have no opinion on BV206 \ud83d\ude37
\nIt could be as many as 180 PBV302 and they are probably for the new brigades being set up maybe?
\nIf it worked for mechanized infantry in 1994, it works for Ukraine today but why they didn\u2019t arrive already in 2022 is unclear to me.<\/p>\n

I also read the usual that we know nothing. We knew nothing about Leo2, CV90, missiles, Gripen, and F-16 either, if I recall correctly, and everything is on its way or has arrived.
\nBradleys and Abrams would NEVER set foot in Ukraine, several thread participants agreed on that, and absolutely never Gripen.
\nUkraine wants Gripen, they announced yesterday by the way.
\nhttps:\/\/www.svd.se\/a\/vgAdBV\/ukrainas-ambassador-vi-behover-gripen<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine has learned to handle all the different Western systems so two different advanced aircraft at once is no problem. It is a lousy excuse that is directly dishonorable.<\/p>\n

After Gripen and BV206 (which I know nothing about) we don\u2019t have much more to send unless we make a deal with NATO and start sending lots of unit-equipped materiel with promises that Norway will come to our aid. Then of course they will retaliate for old grievances, and 1805, and stand at the border laughing but that will be the next problem.<\/p>\n

Guess what would be best protected in Ukraine, Gripen on the road-based Bas-90 system or F-16s gathered at central air bases?<\/p>\n

Sweden is sending the Pbv302 because Ukraine has requested splinter protection for upcoming offensive operations, that’s a given, right?
\nThen they wanted advanced aircraft for air superiority, but that is being slow-walked by the USA and is the critical line.
\nThe USA hasn’t held back the Pbv302 despite many US components in them, right?
\nBut specifically Gripen, specifically F-16, specifically Taurus\u2026 <\/p>\n

We have to thank the gods that Macron now openly challenges the USA and Germany, he stole the whole show from the defector with the worst suit in Europe at the joint press conference.<\/p>\n

Imagine if the rest of the West follows his leadership and simply ignores the USA and Germany, imagine if Sweden sends down Gripen anyway \u2013 what do we think the actual consequences would be, actual?
\nCan’t we let the USA and Germany face the consequences of their actions here, is everyone just hanging on the fashion icon Macron?<\/p>\n

Now this is not the end of the world because Macron now allows French weapons on Russian soil and they have delivered JDAMS and Scalp in very large quantities.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1795539109882269983?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But the effect of ATACMS on the airbases can probably decrease now that protection has been built over the aircraft \u2013 Biden managed to delay it long enough for Putin to build his defenses.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1795841934503899473?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Finland’s, Poland’s, and Sweden’s counterparts don’t hit as hard but you can still fire across the northern border with artillery at least, and when Gripen arrives \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5
\nWhen I came here I understood what a massive package Sweden had planned \ud83d\ude32 \u2013 FIRST WITH ADVANCED AIRCRAFT just as we had hoped during this dark Golgotha march and then it gets sabotaged with a lousy excuse \u2013 as a Swede, I am absolutely pissed off.
\nThink what being first would have done for Sweden’s image.
\nOr that Gripen totally outclassed F-16 and what that would have done for sales.<\/p>\n

I think we deserve better. We have world-leading aircraft, we are ready to send them and Ukraine is crying out for them when they hold their dead children. Why should we be robbed of the street cred and above all why should children be forced to die?
\nNow that I have already apologized, it must also be a big thank you to the Kristersson government who both do the right thing and manage to keep quiet about it \ud83d\ude00
\nThe two ASC890s being sent are received with cheers by Ukraine, guess how deafening it would have been if a few squadrons of Gripen had arrived \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

MRF thought the day before yesterday that I was wrong when I said the West’s stockpiles are full \u2013 how does a large number of Gripen fit into that obviously incorrect picture?
\nOr 180 PBV302?
\nOr a whole two AWACS?
\nJust from little Sweden \ud83d\ude01
\nI think that assumption aged poorly right now when the whole West is sending unit-equipped materiel from reserve stocks and in huge amounts.<\/p>\n

Then I’m a bit curious about what types could be even crazier than Putin who will take over as you wrote about \u2013 how this madness would harm the West was not clear but apparently we are safe enough to explain why we don’t send anything (but now all countries have been sending materiel for months anyway)?<\/p>\n

Then you are probably wrong in fact (risking that I am not well-read) \u2013 there is nothing in NATO that prevents members from acting outside Article 5 provided they preferably don’t jump on each other, like Turkey or Greece.<\/p>\n

I agree with your Beorn tactic, it’s hard to miss, BUT when a weapon system has been introduced you can send everything, for example Taurus can be sent, right, so your explanatory model doesn’t hold there either.<\/p>\n

You write a bit misleadingly that NATO should not initiate acts of war against anyone but omit that members can act outside NATO. And then you write that this is what member countries must relate to so that is why nothing is done.
\nYes, we see it right now when half of NATO is sending troops to Ukraine (soon) and letting their weapons rain down on Russia (soon) and at least Russia has equated that with acts of war.<\/p>\n

Then I have the opposite opinion on the question that you think it’s going in the right direction \u2013 the longer this war goes on the higher the risk of global conflict. Russia has just started threatening Finland, Gotland, and the Baltic states, right?<\/p>\n

Enough about that and it was probably lucky that I didn’t produce a long post in response which is tiresome so it became a paragraph inside today’s post dedicated to the answer.<\/p>\n

Now cracks are seriously starting to appear in the dam and the chief engineer looks nervously around.<\/p>\n

The tank coalition in early 2023 was exciting but this is a 100m wide lava flow in comparison \u2013
\n-A number of countries with France at the forefront are about to send troops to Ukraine.
\n-A number of countries with France at the forefront have now allowed their weapons to be fired on Russian soil.
\n-The USA has just allowed their air force to shoot down Russian (threatening) aircraft on Russian soil. Baby steps but everything is coming.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ktoy7qrgzk2v<\/a>
\n-either there are no protests or Ukraine ignores them and attacks refineries.
\n-deliveries are increasing sharply and it is missiles, advanced aircraft, ammunition, JDAMS, ATACMS, and heavy vehicles \u2013 exactly everything Ukraine requests is now on the way.<\/p>\n

Scholz and Sullivan are doing what they can but I don’t think they can hold out much longer because then it will become obvious that they have disregarded democratic principles for a purpose they are not honest about and the USA and Germany will lose position.<\/p>\n

There is actually a majority for \u2013 troops in Ukraine, blowing up bases in Russia, and delivering heavy offensive materiel. The USA and Germany don’t have to do it but they have no moral or international right to prevent others from doing so.<\/p>\n

Go Macron, you have enough with you to make a difference in our time so I don’t have to stand fiddling with an AK4 at some small mobilization depot in \u00d6sterg\u00f6tland in an undersized M59 uniform \u270a<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine naturally has to go and win the war too but the conditions have been significantly better since the turn of the year, everyone can probably agree on that and they have already retaken 50% of lost territory so only half left.<\/p>\n

I always get terrified when refinery bombings stop but now Ukraine went after a refinery yesterday. It was the legend Fram i Natten who stayed awake and posted this week’s most important piece of information.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1796084681395277883?s=46&t=bAqHDMQhVl3Aw3fKGHikqg<\/a><\/p>\n

And then they sank two ships and knocked out air defense in Crimea in passing.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1795971648329285694?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

But it doesn’t end there \u2013 Ukraine subjected Tokmak to a firestorm yesterday and that is front-line pre-emptive strikes on rear functions, and we all know what that means if it continues at high intensity.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1796066370767008092?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Then there were wild explosions in many Russian Oblasts during last night with beautiful violent mushroom clouds and dead barbarians.<\/p>\n

If you are to believe this one, hyperinflation is on its way to Russia
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ktoslygwae24<\/a><\/p>\n

And Putin gave an embarrassing speech with a sweaty forehead and anxiety where he demands full mobilization of the entire country for this highly self-inflicted existential war.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/yasminalombaert\/status\/1795910999821717602?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

We end today’s link fest with this one about a Finnish veteran.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ktna5quy522c<\/a><\/p>\n

At least I\u2019m starting to feel that the pieces are falling into place and Macron has definitely shaken the cookie jar a bit so the USA and Germany will give in here, which is good for everyone except Putin.<\/p>\n

180 PBV302s is great fun and consider then everything Bulgaria, the USA, France, Greece, and many other countries have quietly sent since the turn of the year. Few countries announce what they send anymore.
\nUkraine, for example, took the old BTRs Bulgaria sent and mounted new weapon stations on them.
\nThen we had 300 strv from Kuwait and Morocco, or maybe more.
\nThe fragmentation protection and 4 km snipers should be in place but the air force is missing.<\/p>\n

And the workshops all over Europe should reasonably be done with the maintenance of all weapon systems from the spring offensive 2023?<\/p>\n

Now you have already understood what will happen on the northern front when the USA and Germany toughen up and according to Accentmannen UA has 38,000 in the area and RU 14,000 (after losses). UA is now conducting offensive operations in the area and the drone weapon has not made mechanized combat impossible as many strongly claim, which I have never understood.
\nAnd what is more important than that, Ukraine is conducting mobile combat in an area where the Russian air force should completely dominate, ahkp and air.
\nAs we have discussed before, we will see mechanized combat in the next offensive.
\nUkraine currently has only elite units in the area and thus the battle group has a hard bite.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/JXowjLcXBY8?si=isP6fw_WFkwb4GHJ<\/a><\/p>\n

I also want to flag that the monthly report for Russian Dead Barbarians Inc. will be among the best in the entire war in several categories \u2013 we have to wait until Saturday morning and the press conference but these are sensational figures that will make everyone except Putin happy \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks Johan!<\/p>\n

Even though there were no captures, it was still damn nice to see that we squeezed in the biggest package so far. When it was quiet for so long, I started to get nervous that we in Sweden might have lost the will to support.
\nSure, they had communicated the three-year plan of 25 billion per year, but one didn\u2019t know how it was intended to be used.<\/p>\n

Now there is a clear message that we will hold on and persevere as long as needed!<\/p>\n

(We are probably also going to send another 12 billion this year, there is a chance that there could be captures already by autumn.
\nOf course, I agree that we should send them anyway already now \ud83d\ude04 )<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:48 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, but he is showing the way for others who dare to follow him, now it\u2019s soon 10 countries allowing weapons into Russia and five countries that might send troops. Before he started trying to make France great again in the vacuum that arose, no one dared to take the step.<\/p>\n

France has also sent a lot of Scalp, JDAMS (their version) and fragmentation protection.<\/p>\n

Yes, the UK needs to get going now too so we have an EU alliance minus the Germans which is okay.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I am extremely satisfied with Sweden\u2019s actions in this war, CV90, Archer, Leo2 and now AWACS as well as Gripen.
\nWe have shown the world that we are to be reckoned with when it really matters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:36 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, I agree, we are doing really well!
\nI just started to get a bit concerned when it took so long for this latest package, but I worried unnecessarily!<\/p>\n

Hope it can inspire more countries to increase, it\u2019s clear that what has been given so far hasn\u2019t quite been enough or the Russians would already have been kicked out.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

05:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Has the USA given up the geographical restrictions?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/warinthefuture\/status\/1796307707529716122?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

05:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

To some extent I should add.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Trump is apparently panicking<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1796375459573186825?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The sinking of ferries seems to continue?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1796343244592492687?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Oil depot in Krasnodar droned<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1796349955378225233?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

06:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:16 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Good!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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