{"id":9179,"date":"2024-05-31T09:11:54","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T07:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-05-31-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T09:48:18","slug":"2024-05-31-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-05-31-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-05-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I have now accepted that we were deprived of the Gripen for Ukraine (right now) and Sullivan\u2019s and Scholz\u2019s actions no longer raise my blood pressure above the stroke threshold.<\/p>\n

Sweden as a country has probably done the most of all countries if we look at WHAT we have sent and not just cost per capita. CV90, Archer, AWACS, strv 122, and Gripen are all among the world\u2019s best weapon systems and we sent modified versions in top condition.<\/p>\n

Then the Combat Boat 90 is top in its class, missile 70 and 15 (probably) are good systems and the anti-tank shots are real Russian killers.
\nMany countries have emptied scrap stocks and accounted for it at acquisition value and even the US sent Abrams and Bradleys in poor condition that went straight to the workshop.<\/p>\n

Portugal sent towed artillery from World War II but that was expected, after living there many years I am surprised they sent anything at all.<\/p>\n

We have also done this without making a fuss at all really, which is very Swedish \ud83d\ude00
\nThis was our war-winning weapon package if you remember that discussion \ud83d\udca5\ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s slowly starting to dawn on the thread how this will play out, we have for months discussed Ukraine\u2019s arsenal of indirect weapons which also includes Tochka U and Grom 2 besides all the drones and Western missiles.
\nWe have discussed the different phases and at least I now see front-near suppression of rear functions, the other day it was Tokmak and now Mariupol got a visit.<\/p>\n

The HIMARS crews say they have never seen so much ammunition which is a good sign.<\/p>\n

We have also discussed that many Western countries have quietly sent equipment and ammunition and that the ammunition is now out with units we know, and I guess heavy vehicles have also arrived.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has received many combat boats and equipment for mine clearance.<\/p>\n

They now have 13 newly established brigades and many of the existing brigades are in recovery which means replacement personnel and new equipment.<\/p>\n

There are always more explanatory models than the problems the West creates but it CAN\u2019T be fun to be Putin right now, come the elite air force he would nuclear bomb half of Europe and the same applied to Western troops \u2013 then it would be a real war.
\nNow it will be like every other time the West stands grinning and jumps on Putin\u2019s red lines absolutely nothing.
\nThe humiliation is truly total here and it must be devastating for self-esteem.
\nLavrov probably made some lukewarm statement but no one cares.<\/p>\n

I know it\u2019s hard to take in how badly this war is going for Russia even if it has been written by someone many times in the thread. Just the fact that high-priority air bases have their air defense knocked out by exactly the missiles this air defense was supposed to protect the air bases against says almost everything \u2013 the Russians are done for when they can\u2019t even manage self-defense of their own air defense.<\/p>\n

Then it is striking how few understand how much the West has worked against Ukraine here and given them just enough to barely last the week. Think about why no equipment came between spring 2023 and sometime last winter?
\nWhy?
\nThe equipment obviously existed because it\u2019s coming now, both ammunition and weapon systems so why did the West send nothing when Russia launched its all-out offensive?
\nThe West played high with the risk that there would be a bigger Russian breakthrough so I guess the West was prepared to accept a negotiated peace and give up land if Ukraine started to retreat.
\nBecause they wouldn\u2019t have sent in their own troops at that point?
\nAnd it would then have been too late to send equipment when the breakthrough was a fact.
\nIf that wasn\u2019t the reason then arrogance and neglect are almost total which should result in pay cuts for all elected officials and experts since they can\u2019t read a risk list.<\/p>\n

Think about that next time you defend the West that they coldly calculated an escalated global conflict confident in their knowledge that you and I then could be mobilized and sent to some town in Estonia with an AK4 and two magazines in a far too small M59 uniform.<\/p>\n

But 2024 started well and it looks better every week that goes by.<\/p>\n

It was not hard to guess that the pressure would increase so much on Biden and Scholz that they had to give in and now Biden seems to have accepted Western equipment across the border around Kharkiv.
\nExact details are unclear but guess if there are troop concentrations and depots there that are logged and entered on the Excel list \u2013 a real target party simply when it gets going, a violent target party.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3ktqynmzrwk2t<\/a><\/p>\n

It has been a professional campaign from Western countries where they refer to international law as someone said in yesterday\u2019s thread and it is increasingly difficult for Sullivan and Scholz to resist usurpers so low odds that they will give in before it turns into a full challenge to the world order.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1796079331493421302?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine now thus has the initiative up at the northern front and an offensive straight into Russia is a real possibility. I am extremely torn here whether the West has given its permission for that or not but as it looks today in Belgorod Oblast Ukraine can start moving north at some point because they have a numerical advantage of 1:3 and absolutely a material advantage.
\nYou know that map with all the Russian bases, imagine if Ukraine can start reaching them with conventional artillery going forward when they have advanced a few miles into Russia \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

Why else do they have 38,000 to defend against 14,000 barbarians who almost self-destruct when they shoot each other, kill each other, step on mines and finally a few start running screaming across the fields towards the buried Ukrainian defense and die a violent death.<\/p>\n

Think carefully about how Ukraine can conduct mechanized combat up at the northern front, which they are doing right now.
\nOn the one hand, the drone weapon would make all mechanized combat impossible according to everyone who understands and my opinion has been that this year we will see mechanized combat. How come UA vehicles can move up at the northern front?<\/p>\n

And above all \u2013 RU should have total air superiority up there with Ahkp and aircraft but UA moves anyway \u2013 something to ponder \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Have you noticed how much Scholz gets absolutely everything wrong just by momentum \u2013 recently he considered a Western no-fly zone over western Ukraine a violent escalation and he opposed it strongly and the week after Gripen and F-16 are supposed to arrive which will give Russian air prohibition over Ukraine within a few weeks after arrival. Scholz is mixing up most things right now and everything goes wrong.<\/p>\n

At least I have had a really serious wake-up call about the criminal gangs and clans and that they can be the infrastructure foreign powers use into society instead of their own spies as during the Cold War \u2013 that came up a few weeks\/week ago in the thread.
\nNow S\u00c4PO goes out and explains that that is exactly how it is so we don\u2019t need to guess anymore (and the one who wrote that in the thread dropped a piece of information as usual, not the first time).
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/saposverige\/status\/1796178625529610249?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Especially the criminal clans have members who are not previously convicted in all sorts of places in our administration, and the criminal gangs have apparently discovered honey traps and then gotten employees into positions they can exploit.
\nWhat was possibly to some extent system-threatening suddenly becomes system-threatening, so these legal toughenings around the criminal clans and gangs are actually good. It should not be fun to be a criminal, and why social services have not taken all children living with lifestyle criminals according to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child is a mystery to me; should we follow it or not?
\nThe Tax Agency should also impose tax assessments on them every year if they drive fancy cars without income, and then the enforcement orders pile up on each other \u2013 just like they do with all of us taxpayers.
\nBecause the only thing that bites the professional criminals is if it would pay more to be law-abiding and have a regular job. Today, they have started buying into the housing market through contacts in the banks, as we know from the EncroChat leak, and the only advantage we taxpayers had was that we could get a house while they had to sit in rental apartments in worse suburbs with expensive watches and Nike Jordans.
\nWe know that the criminal clans and gangs influence the justice system, politics, and civil society, mostly perhaps at the local level, but in some cases, they have probably infiltrated the national level?
\nThat infrastructure for foreign powers is absolutely deadly for Sweden, and now we know it is already being exploited because Mossad has done its homework, but that only concerned threats against them.<\/p>\n

If you remember the guy in the thread who usually argues that Russia is a state sponsor of terrorism and that all dealings with them should be prosecuted under anti-terrorism laws, I think it\u2019s about time now. Iran has also long been classified as a state sponsor of terrorism?
\nWhat are we waiting for \u2013 use the gang laws and anti-terrorism legislation and crack down on the gangs. I think I\u2019ve heard \u201ccrack the gangs\u201d from all parties for at least 10 years and nothing happens. Most recently, it was Morgan\u2019s slogan last term, and now the Tid\u00f6 coalition is running the same but nothing happens.<\/p>\n

Japan has just retired 875 older model tanks, and it\u2019s not unreasonable to think their destination is Ukraine?
\nThey have recently started changing laws for arms exports, if I recall correctly.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/scootntoot\/status\/1796106597640389106?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

If you weren\u2019t sufficiently energized by last night\u2019s drone bombing barrages everywhere, this one should do the trick; RU now has T54 in combat \u2013 someone usually writes \u201csnorkorta p\u00e5 pansar\u201d (short on armor) in the thread?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1796343280948670942?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Yesterday the oil depot in Krasnodar had a fireball night.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/azovsouth\/status\/1796349955378225233?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And there have been explosions practically all over Ukraine and neighboring oblasts during the night \u2013 a serious fireworks display with violent Russian death.<\/p>\n

This is what it looks like: \u201ceastern shield,\u201d or the bulwark against the barbarians as someone usually calls it. A perfectly okay defensive line that will protect our eastern border. Now the whole EU must ensure it is funded because even Portugal enjoys the benefit of the shield.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noncrddefence\/status\/1795705080219619803?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I sounded my gong a few months ago that the orange man is done for, and I stand by that. I would have liked to see Nikki Haley as president (or vice president who takes over quickly\u2026) instead of Biden\u2019s happy gang, but a Democratic administration that yields to a collective West also works. Even though the Ukraine war is entering its final phase, the globally heightened security situation will require its man, woman, hen, or they\/them, or cats (apparently they must be included now too because some identify as animals) throughout the next term.<\/p>\n

Now that the ammunition is back, pre-emptive strikes near the front, deep strikes, and long-range strikes are reaching storm strength, and it\u2019s the end of May. Ukraine has the initiative up at the northern front, and everywhere else the Russians are stuck.
\nIt will be a lively summer, a lively autumn, and maybe also a lively winter depending on when critical materiel arrives, like the advanced aircraft.<\/p>\n

You all know what the offensive will look like after the big campaign plan, and I\u2019m betting it will be lively in Belarus.<\/p>\n

Partial republics and oblasts should also get going; right now it\u2019s only Georgia that the media has completely forgotten, but the demonstrations are huge and should spread.<\/p>\n

Ukraine does not lack fragment protection or tanks and has 13 new brigades under formation.
\nAnd above all, they learned their lesson in 2023.<\/p>\n

Putin is starting to get seriously scared
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1795528894738530735?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This year Ukraine is quiet, and everyone thinks they lack offensive capability, but it\u2019s enough to look at how they fight up at the northern front to understand that they absolutely do not, and then they have a large strategic offensive reserve where a brigade will be operating PBV302 to my great joy.<\/p>\n

There are two ways to end this war \u2013 UA retakes its land or Russia retreats voluntarily, and it will probably be a combination where Ukraine retakes enough for even Putin to understand it\u2019s over.
\nThe northern front is very exciting, the Dnieper as well, and everything that is violently blown up in Crimea.
\nThe flytraps Bakhmut and Avdiivka are working as intended.<\/p>\n

-positive \u2013 positive thus now that they have gotten over the fact that the USA crashed our big day with Gripen in its abysmally poor performance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Your post probably came before Sweden announced 2 AWACS, 180 PBV302, and an unknown number of Gripen, and that should be enough? Then there is more materiel on the way that we are not discussing.<\/p>\n

Scroll a bit through the lists below and you\u2019ll understand why I say the barns are full.
\nFrance
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_equipment_of_the_French_Army<\/a>
\nGreece
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_equipment_of_the_Hellenic_Army<\/a>
\nBulgaria
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_modern_equipment_of_the_Bulgarian_Land_Forces<\/a><\/p>\n

And then Japan has just retired 875 tanks according to my post today.<\/p>\n

Then it\u2019s perhaps a matter of definition what is considered a lot, but these three countries have around 15,000 armored vehicles or something, a lot for me at least.<\/p>\n

Below is a bit tricky
\n\u201cIf NATO had 200 million 155mm shells in stock, we wouldn\u2019t have seen the terrible shortage situation that Ukraine struggled with during the winter and spring.\u201d<\/p>\n

No country has 200 million 155mm shells in their stockpiles, and how many they have is classified. However, the shortage after the spring offensive was because the West sent nothing. In January, Denmark sent ALL its reserve ammunition to artillery. So it was in stock.<\/p>\n

Then the West placed orders on contracts for their own use, so Ukraine has not been able to buy on the open market despite having money. Since the turn of the year, France has both sent from reserve stocks (if I recall correctly) and then dedicated all its production to Ukraine, 100%.<\/p>\n

The last three paragraphs about Hans Rosling and that everything is subjective \u2013 do you not consider Wikipedia’s figures a good reference number?<\/p>\n

I never complain that NATO has too little; on the contrary, I always say that the West has enormous stockpiles they do not send?<\/p>\n

The USA absolutely has enormous stockpiles because they must have enough for two wars according to current policy.
\nFrance, the UK, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Finland, and Scandinavia also have a lot, but it is dedicated to national defense \u2013 our Supreme Commanders have their job descriptions and do not want to leave the country defenseless. Especially not when there is a ten-year queue for new equipment from weapons manufacturers.<\/p>\n

If you now say that there is not enough, can you with any kind of evidence show that I am wrong in fact when I say that France has X number of blast-protected vehicles?<\/p>\n

I know you think so and that the facts available that I post are not good enough according to you, but if there is to be any balance in the discussion, it would be nice if you could bring up something that shows, for example, that France does not have anywhere near what is stated in open sources?<\/p>\n

And since you have not presented any kind of information that supports that the West has less equipment than stated in open sources, how can you then claim that you have a better understanding of the actual situation than I do?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

But the air force will most likely fly over UA territory and fire their weapons?
\nEverything is missiles or SDBs, right?<\/p>\n

Since our government was just about to announce that they are sending the planes, they have gone through the whole process with the USA, and the USA has presumably given permission to send them?<\/p>\n

Then at the last second, the USA changes its mind and the explanation is that they want to send F-16s first because Ukraine cannot handle two weapons systems at once.<\/p>\n

– Gripen will be sent
\n– F-16 must come before Gripen<\/p>\n

Doesn’t the argument about radar or similar fall apart then?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

An addition \u2013 you are talking about the alliance’s total defense capability.<\/p>\n

Getting Ukraine to grind down Russia by sending outdated surplus equipment is almost an exponential increase in NATO’s defense capability, isn’t it?<\/p>\n

First, you get Ukraine involved, and then you grind down Russian defense capability significantly so you need less defense capability yourself.<\/p>\n

That must be considered a better investment than sitting on everything and risking Ukraine falling back under the Russian sphere again?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:06 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks \ud83d\udc4d <\/p>\n

T-90 and T-62 are increasing proportionally while the T-72s seem to be running out. We’ll see if T-54s soon become the new black in the Red Army! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

To be precise, Ukraine has the initiative up at the northern front.<\/p>\n

This year they are not communicating anything, so we will have to watch what happens \u2013 pre-strikes on front-line rear functions have started.<\/p>\n

Before anything happens, pre-strikes on the front are also needed, so presumably some kind of offensive operations are not far off.<\/p>\n

Sitting and doing nothing until 2025, as everyone seems to think, is unlikely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:26 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Now she won’t become president, so it will be a rhetorical question.<\/p>\n

I post a wiki link about where she stands on hot issues, what is controversial about them?
\nA sound view on LGBT, abortions, immigration and at the same time having exposed H..a’s cards and standing on the West’s side?
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Political_positions_of_Nikki_Haley<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep, T72B is running out according to some link from a while ago that you can never find again.<\/p>\n

No better way to say short-lived on armor than a T54 used offensively.<\/p>\n

Do you remember the discussion when the T62 came and we laughed so hard we bobbed, and the other side urged us to reason because they would only be used defensively and were very deadly. That was a bit before the Russians started using them offensively and lost large numbers because the vehicle is crap.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
15:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Yes, they were supposed to be used like artillery behind dragon’s teeth and stop the Azov push or something like that.<\/p>\n

No, I’ve been saying for a long time now that during the summer I think we will start noticing Russian tank shortages seriously (if this pace continues) and if it turns out that the T-54 becomes more common on the battlefield, it’s a clear sign that we are on the right track.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

A protection effort in the Baltics against what?
\nIf Russia’s capability goes down, then NATO’s defense capability can also go down correspondingly during the same time, right?
\nAs far as I know, there are currently no Russian brigades near the Finnish border at all, for example?<\/p>\n

Then MatsExtrude wrote above that NATO has 11,000 tanks in total?<\/p>\n

And yes, of course Finland cannot give up equipment because they are part of the perimeter defense just like Sweden needs certain capabilities and likewise Poland and the Baltics.<\/p>\n

No one absolutely doubts that Finland and the Baltics could defend themselves with Poland’s help against Russia after this \u2013 we know quite precisely what Russian capability is at this point, I dare say \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

So the rest of Europe’s armed forces are surplus if you don’t intend them to defend themselves against Africa or against each other?
\nAgainst China, you need a navy and not ground forces, right?
\nAnd the only countries China can attack over land are Russia or India (if they go through some other countries).<\/p>\n

Europe’s armed forces have national defense to consider as well as a commitment to NATO.
\nIn my opinion, it is the national defense that makes the West send nothing, the Supreme Commander has a job description he follows.
\nAnd that is where they think wrong, they don’t need national defense if they don’t have a border with Russia.<\/p>\n

I cannot see that your explanatory model holds except for, for example, Swedish submarines, Swedish fighter aircraft, Finland’s armed forces, and such that are obviously for Europe’s border protection.<\/p>\n

Yes, I understand you want to make it seem that NATO has always acted rationally and according to a plan, but different NATO countries have pulled in different directions all the time and, for example, Poland smuggled its Mig29s into Ukraine secretly.<\/p>\n

Macron has thrown away the script.<\/p>\n

The US Congress dragged its feet on the support package for six months \u2013 that has absolutely nothing to do with NATO, right?<\/p>\n

The Baltic states and the Czech Republic have de facto reduced their own capability to defend themselves since they have sent everything they can to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Shouldn’t we also distinguish between DEPLOYED equipment and STORED equipment in this discussion, presumably?<\/p>\n

Most of what has been sent is stored equipment and does not affect NATO capability at all, right?
\nThen some countries have chosen to send deployed equipment as well, often countries far from the perimeter defense like Denmark, for example, which sent all its artillery to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Then the line I am pushing has strong support in how the West has historically dragged its feet in major conflicts, WW2 and Yugoslavia, for example.<\/p>\n

So no, I don’t feel that your explanatory model has any bearing on reality no matter how much you want it to \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yes, your discussions are always subjective and it ends up being tuna cans or Hans Rosling instead of trying to break it down into numbers, which I think makes for a more reasonable discussion overall, and then the usual personal attacks that I try to avoid but now you have started a discussion (again) which you are welcome to do.<\/p>\n

I also believe that you have grossly misunderstood NATO and the demands the organization places, but on the other hand, the USA as the USA seems to place quite large demands.<\/p>\n

To me, it is crystal clear that you are wrong on the facts, but I am happy to continue the discussion if you want.<\/p>\n

Then I must also point out that you agreed with Rikkitikitavi’s post below, which is EXACTLY the line I am pushing, which makes me start to suspect that you just want to take the opposite position to me just for the sake of it, and can’t we rise above that maybe \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

If you google around a bit MRF, the USA and the West have been clear that the restrained support and all the dragging out has been to avoid escalating the war \u2013 there is much written about that.<\/p>\n

Of course, that is completely wrong thinking and is now behind us, we came to the support anyway.<\/p>\n

But that does not mean that all other explanatory models are correct, it only means that the West was gun-shy and too cautious. As said, there is enough documented for it to be considered the strategy that led to very little support.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:59 \u2013 Johan No.1 I have now accepted that we were deprived of the Gripen for Ukraine (right now) and 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