{"id":9209,"date":"2024-06-04T09:44:33","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T07:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-04-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:22:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:22:56","slug":"2024-06-04-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-04-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

This time Ukraine will not forsake the Russian low points that they were forced into in 2022 and 2023 by NATO officers.<\/p>\n

Ukraine knows very well that everything is fleeting and RU is working overtime with its subversive activities, so time is not on their side (either). This year’s big reshuffle in combat leadership was not popular and the question is whether it can be done again.<\/p>\n

And if you feel that Johan No.1 doesn’t know what he’s talking about, Zelensky himself has confirmed that UA needs to come to a conclusion this year. Then materiel deliveries can be dragged out to absurd lengths, but that is their intention.
\nZelensky has also confirmed that they intend to carry out offensives if they can \u2013 their intention.<\/p>\n

Then Johan No.1 goes off as usual and is currently pondering how far it really is up to Moscow now that entire companies are surrendering to Ukraine at the northern front, but for me the absolutely biggest obstacle to an invasion of Russia is the democracies of the West. It is my belief that if 38,000 Ukrainians start moving north, it could be perceived as escalating and the West will throw all the red cards they have at Zelensky. Putin would absolutely scream loudly about something like that and start putting the strategic nuclear forces on alert.<\/p>\n

But that could potentially topple Putin and would at least lead to the CAA being hastily moved from fronts in Ukraine up to Russia so opportunities would open up in the occupied areas.<\/p>\n

Exactly everyone can see what is happening with all the indirect capabilities right now including the Iskander platforms along the northern border and artillery losses are sky-high, 65 yesterday.
\nSince the imperialist Red Army is extremely short on armor and now also cannot fight according to doctrine with the artillery, their forces in warfare are basically wiped out and they only have weaknesses left?<\/p>\n

Yes, they have improved their reaction time from detection to fire on target and have a drone weapon but UA has partly carpet bombed their factories, has drone groups as priority targets and is working hard with EW.<\/p>\n

At the Dnipro front UA is said to have complete superiority in EW and drones and have started using air power close to the front.<\/p>\n

When the Russians fly their FAB missions, it\u2019s not thousands of flights but probably 10X4-5 or something at most per day, now I\u2019m wildly guessing.<\/p>\n

We have all agreed that FAB bombs are a dreadful weapon, right?
\nSo what will happen when a hundred F-16s fly the same mission with JDAMS and the French much better version which is also in nicer color and has better design?<\/p>\n

Do you know who is newly manufacturing JDAMS and sending 50 per month to Ukraine \u2013 France.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/Osinttechnical\/status\/1797695060693401605<\/a><\/p>\n

If we are to engage in some honest discussion, that should hit the Russians very hard and Russian successes since last autumn are largely because they bury the defense alive with FAB bombs.<\/p>\n

The tactic is as simple as effective \u2013 RU sends forward cheap unwanted infantry who identify where the defense is dug in. The defense has a fortification system with alternative firing positions, reinforced fortifications or bunkers and a rear area. Then RU rains tens of FAB bombs over the geographically limited area with a somewhat poor (Russian) impact pattern but since the bombs have such a large diametrical effect, the strike is enough to bury the defense alive.
\nThen they send in a better unit with the goal of taking the objective and then going on defense.<\/p>\n

What saves Ukraine is that the time between the better unit going on defense and continuing forward is still too long, so UA then hits them with all the indirect capabilities they have and then retakes the area.
\nHowever, the first unit is buried alive and if I may guess, Ukraine tries to manage this first defense with as low numbers as possible but it must be absolutely terrible to get that task and know what is coming\u2026<\/p>\n

But when the roles are reversed, Ukraine will first have better accuracy so more bang for the buck and then they will be able to continue forward continuously which RU cannot manage so they will get a multiplier on the FAB bombs that the Russians have not managed. And then Ukraine doesn\u2019t only have FAB bombs, right \u2013 they have ATACMS, 155mm HE, 155mm cluster munitions, Storm Shadow and lots of other fun stuff.<\/p>\n

Then Ukraine now has such a broad palette of indirect fire and excellent target observation that this time they will pulverize the task forces before they come within shooting range of the objectives \u2013 pretty sure we will see that.
\nIf you remember the miracle at Vuhledar, they got everything right and now it\u2019s a year later with greatly expanded capabilities.<\/p>\n

And behind the task forces there is nothing, then RU must send forward strategic reserves which will also be knocked out as they have to pass known hubs and transport nodes that can be reached with ATACMS and other cool missiles.
\nThat\u2019s how it will look when it really gets going \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

And then UA had ammunition shortages but now Russia has that because of destroyed ammunition depots, bad ammunition and logistics problems \u2013 2\/3 thanks to Ukraine and the last we can thank NK and Russian corruption for.<\/p>\n

We know that Svatove is a major maintenance hub for RU besides the NS maintenance line that runs outside UA\u2019s eastern border.
\nI don\u2019t remember which town Svatove connects with up at the northern border and couldn\u2019t find the railway map but presumably since the area has been spared, there should be ENORMOUS depots in the Belgorod area that are identified and ready for mushroom clouds and subsequent moon craters.
\nIf they have beginning ammunition shortages now, wait a month and it will probably be full panic \ud83d\ude00
\nThe most dangerous job in the war \u2013 Russian depot worker.
\nEverything we see now is pre-strike for a purpose.<\/p>\n

Then we have the world\u2019s best infantry who have probably reached warrior level now in many brigades, or was it wizard or legendary level?
\nAnd with the Russian hanging team it has been reverse Darwinism so they are like Swedish conscripts after six months or something.
\nWe see this every day.<\/p>\n

What deeply bothers me is the fear Russia constantly tries to make others feel. Finland has lived in the shadow of the Soviet Union and Russia since WW2 and before that they had a bloody revolution.
\nWhen I did my military service in the 90s it was no secret who the enemy was and I remember my parents\u2019 worry in front of a black-and-white TV with a boil in the autumn-gray archipelago early 80s. You felt unsafe.
\nThey constantly threaten their smaller neighbors and they threatened all kinds under the Soviet Union, and now they are back to Africa.
\nAll of Eastern Europe under the Soviet blanket until 1989 and how Poland and the Baltic states are doing today.<\/p>\n

There is a lovely image of South Korea and North Korea at night where South Korea is fully lit and then a big darkness over North Korea \u2013 one country embraced communism and the Chinese-Russian sphere and the other country chose freedom in the West. At least South Korea can move around at night without driving off the road.<\/p>\n

It always sounds a bit dramatic, but now there is actually a chance to make the world a better place, and I have the feeling that Ukraine will not stop at the 1991 borders, and that it will be quite a difficult situation to manage in Russia going forward because the country that stands to gain the most from the Russian threat being reduced is Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainians don\u2019t strike me as forgiving, and I have some experience with that myself with Budanov, so this conflict has probably only just begun.
\nWe also know that Ukraine has contributed GUR teams in Sudan to fight Wagner, and now they are in Syria to fight Russian targets.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1797600093874638898?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Wild guess: Ukrainian GUR will spread across Africa at the same pace as the rest of the West withdraws from there and the Russian Africa corps makes its entrance.
\nSo is it Ukraine that will uphold international law entirely on its own going forward?<\/p>\n

Then there is a commercial aspect here \u2013 if the West pulls back and Russia tries to take over, countries will pay well to get Ukrainian help to free themselves from colonialism.<\/p>\n

There was a theory about the Gripen that a couple of people pushed that NATO couldn\u2019t do without our air force for the northern border and that\u2019s why the US asked us to wait with the Gripen.
\nFinland is sending aircraft to Romania, so that theory no longer holds \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/finnishairforce\/status\/1797716444463140945?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Why can it never be the obvious, that the US is thinking of themselves first?<\/p>\n

When it comes to the subject of the Chinese bus going back and forth over a very small patch screaming \u201cNjeeet,\u201d China does not deny itself.
\nThey now want the same SUBSIDIZED price on gas they buy from Russia as on the domestic Russian market.
\nSo the Russians have to pay to get their gas sold to China \ud83e\udd23
\nAs someone older and wiser once said \u2013 soon they will threaten to withdraw all support (which Russia is still paying for) if they don\u2019t get that price.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1797490347578212714?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1797517650760724507?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

All those who write that China supports Russia, and that Axis and Evil support Russia \u2013 RU had to pay dearly for the North Korean shells that don\u2019t work and they paid for Shaheds with 5 billion in gold (USD?) and promises of exports of the latest advanced aircraft.
\nPretty sure China doesn\u2019t give anything away for free either.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the West DONATES missiles, advanced aircraft, combat vehicles, tanks, and ammunition to Ukraine AND gives them billions of EUR in direct support<\/p>\n

It\u2019s called the Axis of Evil because they are always the pals who betray each other.<\/p>\n

The only reason it looked bleak for a while was because the West delayed the support, nothing else.
\nOn the other side of this war, Ukraine is an EU member and has full access to Western markets and visa freedom \u2013 they will never give this up.
\nThen I also believe that the Balkans and Hungary\/Romania\/Bulgaria will toughen up when Ukraine has a voice in the EU. It\u2019s somewhat their sphere of interest and they will provide energy to those countries and surely a lot more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

As long as the West makes sure to deliver, this will turn out well!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Your second point \u2013 now we don\u2019t really know how many Gripens were actually meant, I\u2019ve just heard some rumors?<\/p>\n

To build on what you\u2019re writing.<\/p>\n

There is probably at least 1.5 years of planning behind this?
\nUntil a few days or a week before the government was to present this, all such things have presumably been discussed?
\nAnd until a few days or a week before, it wasn\u2019t a problem, the government had planned to announce that Gripen would be sent and Zelensky expected Gripen and came to Sweden to thank us.<\/p>\n

Are they really that short-sighted in planning such a \u201chuge apparatus\u201d that this only came up a week before?<\/p>\n

I understand it\u2019s a bit harder to integrate Gripen and F-16 than to send 122 and CV90 but Ukraine has a functioning air force today with at least two models, attack helicopters, large drones, transport aircraft, and civilian aircraft.<\/p>\n

And with the helicopters, they have received at least 5-6 different models delivered?<\/p>\n

If the air defense manages not to shoot down all this \u2013 would Gripen then be the one that can\u2019t be integrated?<\/p>\n

Our AWACS are already compatible with Gripen \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yes, it could have been maintenance and as I said, we don\u2019t know how MANY were to be sent but if I had to choose between the first 10-12-24 F-16s or two squadrons of Gripen, I would actually choose Gripen first.<\/p>\n

Yes, maintenance is also important but they still have attack helicopters, Mig29, SU-25, SU27, transport aircraft and UA has so far proven capable of fighting with everything.<\/p>\n

Then you can have the service bases in the West and fly at treetop height there?
\nYou refuel and reload in UA?
\nI\u2019ve guessed that\u2019s what they plan with F-16 but maybe I\u2019m wrong.
\nSo then you send the entire Swedish service team to a base in Poland \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

A Gripen can be serviced by a conscript and F-16 is more complex, Gripen has more flight hours than F-16 and can land on anything.
\nGripen is simply the optimal aircraft for Ukraine, not F-16.<\/p>\n

But now someone else didn\u2019t think so, why?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Yep.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:25 \u2013 Johan No.1 This time Ukraine will not forsake the Russian low points that they were forced into in 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