{"id":9215,"date":"2024-06-06T08:20:37","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T06:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-06-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:24:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:24:14","slug":"2024-06-06-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-06-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-06"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Do you know what has had a brilliant start to June \u2013 LV losses where they lost 16 in five days \ud83d\ude32
\nIt is Pantsir, S400, S300 unclear if there are any BUK but these are insanely expensive platforms with almost no new production.<\/p>\n

Now you can see what geographical limitations have done to Ukraine \u2013 there should be an absolute firestorm into the northern oblasts for a few months now.
\nAnd on top of that Iskander platforms, there were about 46 up at the northern border winter 2023?<\/p>\n

Then we must not forget that already today Ukraine can move largely unhindered on Russian territory and bomb anything \u2013 I say it again RU lost strategic heavy bombing early 2024.<\/p>\n

Now three refineries were knocked out yesterday, and since they were accused of not being able to count, we announce that 38 attacks have been made in total against refineries since the turn of the year.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kuacak3zsb2s<\/a><\/p>\n

These three are the second overflight and do you yourselves think that 14% reduced refinery capacity is reasonable?
\nRussia’s six largest refineries are included in the +15 that have been hit since the turn of the year. We know from later attacks that the entire capacity was knocked out, they managed to repair in 3-4 months, and then Ukraine does another overflight and shuts the refinery down again.<\/p>\n

100% production loss in fuel production at 15 refineries including the six largest and virtually all in western Russia are exposed.<\/p>\n

I believe it is significantly more than 15% loss as is known and above all I think there is fuel shortage in western Russia but eastern Russia still has capacity so the total is misleading.<\/p>\n

This is reinforced by the fact that UA now knocks out oil depots, tank trains, tank trucks and gas stations (after reading the thread and listening to PerraG55) which to me signals that refinery capacity has been heavily decimated so they switch to that.<\/p>\n

The only surprising thing here is that they have managed to repair the refinery again, I did not think so.
\nThen we know that RU has now stopped reporting production so no one has figures.
\nThe ammunition shortage could be an ammunition shortage or it could be fuel shortage so ammunition cannot be transported forward \u2013 who knows.<\/p>\n

On the subject that the West and NATO have always done right and had a brilliant plan.
\nGermany’s government apologizes to Ukraine for not allowing targets on Russian territory earlier, does it sound like Germany’s government feels they have always done right and have a brilliant plan?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/hallonsa\/status\/1798083166668025931?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

2.5 years of terror bombing Kharkiv with S300\/S400 that stood right on the Russian side of the northern border has thus ceased one week after Ukraine got fire permission for targets on Russian territory \u2013 and nothing has escalated.
\nI know that this is apparently controversial but the West has damn well handled this war just as badly as we suspected \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

And then this about the USA also doing everything completely right in a brilliant plan and being flawless, Ukraine is upset that the USA does not train more F-16 pilots because the USA prioritizes other countries. Which other country could reasonably have the same priority as Ukraine?
\nMaybe opens up for Gripen as the first choice in Ukraine if Sweden is quick on this ball and starts large-scale training of Ukrainian pilots?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1798521843592351881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Erik14 posted the day before yesterday that UA hits targets as far away as Uspenka in Kursk oblast, whichever Uspenka it is, it is a good distance to heavy bomb.<\/p>\n

Yesterday Gregg confirmed that the operational cover now lies dense over the southern front. I have also thought about it because we get less and less information but the Russian losses are absolutely skyrocketing.
\nDo you know what is very Ukrainian, to strike at two opposite places.<\/p>\n

I wrote the day before yesterday that Ukraine will not stop at the 1991 borders and then meant that they will continue with subversive activities in Russia going forward.
\nBut\u2026
\nIf the West uses EU membership as pressure, UA will pull back its claws.
\nIt would be quite expected that the West would neglect the chance of the millennium to get rid of the Russian cancer that makes the West sicker, we will see.<\/p>\n

The question is whether the northern front is now an active front when Russia after 2.5 years decided to try to attack down from there (again)?
\nAnd that it will be difficult for the West not to allow Ukraine to make incursions into Russia?<\/p>\n

Looking at Deepstate it is good warfare to try to overfly the Russian penetration points by going into Russia.
\nFrom W and E of the Russian offensive you head towards Belgorod.<\/p>\n

And then when there is a retreat, air and indirect capabilities are over them like locusts.<\/p>\n

If that does not happen and the ambition is only to retake lost terrain within Ukraine’s land border in the coming weeks and months, then it is quite clear what Ukraine can and cannot do.
\nEspecially E of the penetration points you could quickly reach large forest areas well suited for defense.
\nWest of that it is a bit more open but the defense is a Kadyrov unit and a Spetsnaz brigade so a little mech over them would work wonders and there is also good defensive terrain there.<\/p>\n

The distances are not large either, from Ukraine’s land border up to Belgorod is only 30km.<\/p>\n

Then we have the other classic that MickeU always pushes, to go towards Urazovo to the NE and seriously threaten Russian supply lines and to overfly northern Luhansk.<\/p>\n

And then when everything is chaotic and insoluble for the northern front command, then you enter Kursk oblast.<\/p>\n

RU had about 30,000 in the area now down to 15,000 and they do not have full combat value at all.
\nThere is a battle group over in Kursk too, strength unknown and they can bring up more units from northern Luhansk, where they have already pulled a lot from.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has just over 40,000 in the area and they are all competent units.
\nAnd new ones are arriving all the time, and these are not newly formed brigades but veteran units prioritized with equipment \u2013 the armored fist.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1798160595595706808?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a>
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1798117378082975889?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

And finally you enter Bryansk oblast.<\/p>\n

This would become an absolute domestic political nightmare for Putin and it would also prompt the highest threat level from Russia with the nuclear forces at full readiness and violent threats against all possible countries.
\nHigh risk that the West protests to preserve world peace and in their eagerness to be peaceful and magnanimous they forget the tortured-raped-murdered children as young as five years old.<\/p>\n

A compromise could then be to start a strong offensive that they intend to stop as soon as the red cards start to rain, to then strike on another front?
\nWill Putin use nuclear weapons over his own territory which has been cited as a reason why Ukraine would never invade the northern oblasts.
\nI don’t think so, the risk that Ukraine manages to shoot it down is too great and then the nuclear threat is completely nullified forever. Then domestically it will probably be difficult to spin.<\/p>\n

It is certainly not logical to concentrate as much as 3:1 at the northern front when the losses are 8:1 \u2013 UA would have managed with a numerical disadvantage.<\/p>\n

For a good reason \u2013 Operation Badanka was thus a working name for an unorganized Russian (swimming) flight across the Dnieper, but I now understand that when it is pointed out that “the Russians did not flee dressed in yellow bath ducks across the Dnieper,” a minor misunderstanding has arisen.
\nIf one wants to be picky, that is correct \u2013 the Russians did not struggle down into yellow bath ducks like an early water festival and paddle across the Dnieper with their mobiles \u2013 absolutely right.
\nHowever, if you look at the number of Russians who in panic tried to cross the Dnieper in any floating device and drowned, and I have now posted the evidence three times, it was an unorganized flight across the Dnieper with mass drownings of the units left as defense after the VDV was withdrawn.<\/p>\n

On the subject \u2013 it was rumored at the time that Zelensky made a deal allowing RU to withdraw the VDV, but we did not want to believe it because we still had the image of the West we grew up with.<\/p>\n

What we do know today, however, is that NATO commanders did not allow Zalizhny to attack down along the left bank of the Dnieper before the Surovikin line was built in late summer\/autumn 2022 \u2013 this is confirmed.<\/p>\n

Do you know what would have happened then \u2013 the VDV would have been trapped on the right bank of the Dnieper, every regiment!<\/p>\n

If one wants to be conspiratorial, maybe Putin threatened to escalate if the entire VDV was captured and the West backed down?<\/p>\n

We know for sure that this was Germany’s and the USA’s strategy until the turn of the year 2023\/2024, so not unlikely in my book.<\/p>\n

Do you think the war would have ended if Zelensky could have paraded 20,000 VDV into captivity and carried out the Azov strike in 2022?<\/p>\n

Personally, I believe the above is not far from the truth as the puzzle pieces of information we receive begin to fit together \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

The IT war continues and Ukraine wins every day.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/maks_nafo_fella\/status\/1798303462284759552?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

China supports ISIS in Mozambique.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/adfmagazine\/status\/1795551483682820400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Our own war with criminal gangs where nothing has yet been done despite it being system-threatening in some areas. Bukele in El Salvador is currently idolized as he arrested all gang criminals.
\nThe country was one of the world’s hardest hit by crime; my colleague from Peru had much to tell about the country.
\nNow crime is near zero \u2013 a pretty good correlation between imprisoning all criminals and crime rates. The discussion in Sweden is that long prison sentences do not help, so I hope all those who have spoken on the issue are studying El Salvador right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/neilpateltdc\/status\/1798056237453746667?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Another lie heavily peddled by many is that Ukraine does not have a personnel pool to draw from \u2013 did you know that 1.5 million were conscripted in the latest draft?
\nNot all are mobilized, but they have a personnel pool of 1.5 million. And they have had narrow age groups, right?
\nThat is in addition to the one million currently in the armed forces where, after a review, they found several hundred thousand who could serve on the front lines.
\nThis is where France\u2019s and other countries\u2019 instructors come in \u2013 to train large volumes.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/glasnostgone\/status\/1797656055226458386?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

In 2024, Russia has lost the strategic “missile war,” for lack of a better term \u2013 Ukraine shoots down 80-95% of Russian strikes, and UA strikes sail through up to 1800 km deep into Russia.
\nRussian air defenses are now also suffering heavy losses along with radar.
\nFairly convinced that their refinery capacity for western Russia is heavily strained.
\nThere are loose rumors of ammunition shortages.<\/p>\n

The Kharkiv offensive has failed completely, and from what we have seen, it is poorly trained and worse equipped units.
\nUkraine has just received ammunition, permission to strike targets in Russia, will get advanced aircraft, has received fragmentation protection, and has 1.5 million men to mobilize.
\nMeanwhile, the Russians are finding it increasingly difficult to mobilize for the war, right?
\n(Otherwise, why do we see Nepalese and soldiers from countries in Africa?).<\/p>\n

It is starting to look very bleak for Putin, actually.<\/p>\n

It is also crystal clear that forces have been concentrated at the northern front far exceeding what was needed for defense. Then I am not so naive as to not understand that the West has much to say about offensives into Russia.
\nBut\u2026
\nIf the West opposed it, it would be the same strategic mistake as in autumn 2022 when Zalizhny was not allowed to attack down along the left bank of the Dnieper \u2013 a potential war winner that Ukraine is not allowed to execute.
\nAn offensive straight north as far as possible would become a domestic political landslide for Putin.
\nBut the West apparently knows best \ud83d\ude10<\/p>\n

Ukraine has the materiel, ammunition, and manpower pool. “Quantity is a quality in itself” only applies if you have the quantity, right? \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

-positive -positive is almost too little, I\u2019ll have to come up with something new soon and it\u2019s only the beginning of June.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Two refineries and possibly two oil depots yesterday, it seems now that it\u2019s becoming clearer?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:10 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Thanks!<\/p>\n

Want to point out that you misunderstood me, I praised you for your math skills! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

Regarding the refineries, we have probably come further than 14%, but they also seem to be able to repair and push production up somewhat.
\nWhat was hit last night has been targeted several times before, and it still seems to have maintained production pace compared to the first quarter of the previous year.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1798616854124204105?t=4n4Yfs4ahRLfOPHdscoRsQ&s=19<\/a><\/p>\n

But after last night\u2019s “fire drills,” they probably have to shut down (see my post further up).<\/p>\n

Putin humiliates himself more and more with empty threats, cooperation with the Taliban, etc. A clear sign that things are going downhill while it looks better and better for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

A bit worrying that they still haven\u2019t stopped the Russians at Avdiivka where they almost every day take more ground and where there are now quite large areas overall. Hopefully, the Russians don\u2019t take the time to dig in so it becomes difficult to retake.<\/p>\n

Waiting for more ammunition and F-16s, then it\u2019s going to be on!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

I leave the counting to you!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
11:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

\ud83e\udd23\ud83e\udd23<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I feel a bit like a hunted animal by a certain millennial, so there\u2019s some risk of overreaction \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Yep, you were right there \u2013 they could repair the refinery \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

I saw it at Avdiivka; it\u2019s a substantial area since the town fell, and as said, hopefully, the fieldworks haven\u2019t kept up well enough.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Regarding white apes and 09:44 \u2013 <\/p>\n

A nationality will always be judged by how the country manages itself or its citizens at large whether one likes it or not.<\/p>\n

Brits are somewhat disliked in Mallorca, for example, and J\u2026s don\u2019t bother in a couple of mental countries.
\nOr a German after 1945.<\/p>\n

When I left Sweden in 1999, I have always been met with welcome and respect as a Swede \u2013 it has been a free ticket I absolutely did not deserve but am thankful for. Made my life easier.<\/p>\n

Now, of course, Russians will be seen as pariahs for generations to come and there is nothing to be done about it.<\/p>\n

Then unfortunately some groups are lumped together so you “look like” a certain nationality and get blamed for mischief if the reputation is bad, the country is bad or something else which may not be so fun because it is hard to do anything about other countries’ actions. So it’s good that Scandinavia as a whole has a good reputation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

My thought was like this \u2013
\nWhen the maintenance chains work, you probably have spare parts so you can handle a couple of accidents per refinery or something and then you buy new?<\/p>\n

Now there have soon been 40 attacks on refineries and they should have been short of something. It is enough that one critical component is missing and nothing happens and this is Russia where they always mess things up.<\/p>\n

Suggests to me that spare parts still come in from the West.<\/p>\n

Maybe they still have technicians but it was rumored earlier that without technicians from the West they could do nothing so either they have learned or there are technicians from the West on site.<\/p>\n

It is not very easy to build a new distillation tower.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Or maybe China is there with technicians and spare parts?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

No, it probably won\u2019t be fun to be Russian in Europe going forward, regardless of whether you stood on Putin\u2019s side or not. Unfortunately, many are a bit too quick to lump everyone together.
\nAlmost makes you suspect there is a need to put down or despise others. Germans were, as you write, disliked for a long time but here in Sweden both Finns and Roma had to accept being belittled and suspected for a period, now it is MENA and Muslims who are collectively affected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

https:\/\/youtu.be\/rxoTCQ-IQmY?si=aZ2hKpoG-VZOVV9c<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Since I have hawk eyes I still saw it, for me it applied to university and then working life.
\nBeing called to an interview, how I was treated, how colleagues treated me.<\/p>\n

In southern Europe Swedes have a reputation for being ped@philes actually, unclear to me if there is any substance behind the rumor but I have heard it several times.<\/p>\n

But yes, in the last ten years a worse and worse image of Sweden has started to spread, bombings that are the largest in the world in a country not at war, “at least we have fewer rapes than Mexico” as some reporter exclaimed, gang wars and then our gangs that now fight in Spain. And some intolerant groups that like to manifest and the videos spread.<\/p>\n

That does not really affect how I am treated though. Then my colleagues from the Netherlands have exactly the same situation as we have with the above, the Belgians the same, so it mostly becomes something to talk about.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The story behind our national day<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/johangjohansson\/status\/1798585875263328287?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

What, just like when Santa Claus became red!<\/p>\n

Otherwise I think this one is a bit interesting, regarding when Sweden really existed.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/youtu.be\/daCls4vYO7E?si=oVN3TTN5QlqrcfQU<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

17:36, what the hell is this, the script just got thrown out \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n

It can\u2019t be support for RU attack at the southern front because the navy has never been used for that before.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has Storm Shadow, SCALP, its own anti-ship missile and ATACMS now and the Black Sea Fleet knows that very well.<\/p>\n

Has the navy been ordered to retake the waters around Crimea?<\/p>\n

Have they been ordered to stop an impending UA landing on Crimea?<\/p>\n

This could end terribly for the Black Sea Fleet, the risk matrix hits the ceiling, oh \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

All-out missile attack maybe I forgot, could be that too.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Anyone who thinks it\u2019s a coincidence that Dengamle disappears one day and then the entire Black Sea Fleet knowingly sails towards its doom in the waters off Crimea \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n

How he managed this might still be a war secret but I am definitely very curious.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:13 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Good thing it\u2019s beer night (it is every night here) because this could become a real nail-biter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Do you think the Black Sea Fleet will leave the Black Sea?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/kyivindependent\/status\/1798746543744528663?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Aha, I thought he had taken the national day celebration seriously and already fallen asleep after drinking all the schnapps..\ud83d\ude31<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

One way or another they will probably leave sooner or later, at least from the surface.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

France sends Mirage to Ukraine<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1798785904632287692?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:47 \u2013 Johan No.1 Do you know what has had a brilliant start to June \u2013 LV losses where they 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