{"id":9219,"date":"2024-06-08T10:28:33","date_gmt":"2024-06-08T08:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-08-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:25:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:25:04","slug":"2024-06-08-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-08-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now that D-day has passed, about 2,500 died on the first day. That gives an idea of the intensity of the Ukraine war where RU loses +1000 per day; D-day is in the history books as the largest amphibious operation in history with thousands of ships. For Ukraine, this is a high-intensity war every day, for 2.5 years.<\/p>\n

It is above all a war that will determine the development for us in the West over the next 10 years; a global conflict is closer than most want to believe. Or, our government has already confirmed that we are at war, so we know that. And Putin has said that Gotland will be taken, so we know his intention.<\/p>\n

The whole war has mostly been seen either as a way for politicians to become popular or to avoid becoming unpopular, a beta-testing of weapon systems or advertising to sell weapon systems rather than just helping those who defend the entire West by dying for us. Ukraine, of course, does not do this out of pure goodwill, but our security coincides with their defense.<\/p>\n

In 2024, there was a shift if one is to be honest, and old Eastern Europe has done more than they could throughout the war, but the Ukraine war has not come close to the impact it should have, and that reasonably also affects politicians’ willingness to act.<\/p>\n

When it comes to leveling G\u2026a to the ground, it is hurricane force; imagine if the same PR conglomerate had focused on the Ukraine war because there is no shortage of material to drive public opinion with.<\/p>\n

The debates before the EU election are full of discussions about the P..a conflict and significantly less about the Ukraine war.
\nThe tone is extremely high in the general debate; the entire right of center is now nzstr, which is quite interesting. Then the right of center is linked with being pro-Putin in an attempt to discredit half the playing field.
\nThe right cuts back with equally high (low!) level arguments, and in this mess, it is impossible to know what is below the belt, a desire for self-sufficiency, or Russian influence.
\nThere is not much honest debate, though.<\/p>\n

When we as a country should stand united in our time\u2019s great global conflict that is emerging, it is quite the opposite and behind the scenes.<\/p>\n

The UN has just put I..el on its terror list; why is Russia not on it, where is the proportionality?
\nOn October 7, Russia took the first step in the global escalation, and they have managed to keep interest in that conflict high. They drive the P\u2026.a demonstrations, they have let the West pay for all international organizations and then bribed their loyalty \u2013 hats off.<\/p>\n

I did a round of the newspapers this morning, and none have the Ukraine war anymore, so that is noteworthy. It is thus a high-intensity war in our neighborhood.
\nRussia influences the EU election, influences the US election, they carry out physical sabotage in the EU, and they are everywhere on social media to drive opinion \u2013 it is a prioritized state function for them.<\/p>\n

How do you think EU support will be affected after the election \u2013 parties with Russian influence seem to be increasing and individual parliamentarians who are pro-Russian have probably gotten enormous momentum from the entire Russian PR apparatus.<\/p>\n

Now the West finally seems to have decided to support Ukraine, but then it becomes some kind of positioning about who gives what when Ukraine needs everything. Now everyone suddenly wants to be the one who is visible.
\nMany countries would have given up this and taken peace with some land lost, but Ukraine flatly refuses, and that saves us in the West, so far.<\/p>\n

No one really questions why deliveries completely stopped from spring 2023 to January 2024 and then suddenly everything is available for quick delivery. How did the discussions go among our elected officials?
\nI personally believe they were prepared for Ukraine to give up, and then they have ultimately counted on you and me being available for war in the future \u2013 or they cannot foresee the consequences of their actions during the start of our time\u2019s great global conflict, which is almost even worse.<\/p>\n

We were told after the NATO meeting in 2023 that Ukraine was ungrateful and would stop demanding so much, and I remember some in the thread pushed that too. Bruce Wallace learned the hard way.
\nZelensky has in 2024 revealed quite a lot of the dishonest game that has been going on, and everyone can take his words as they want, but for me, he has high credibility and often has confirmed things we suspected.
\nI still in 2024 cannot comprehend how the West has acted in this war; it is 2.5 years after the war started, and the risk that Ukraine throws in the towel and gives up land is absolutely sky-high. Half of World War II already.<\/p>\n

If you remember at the start of the war, we were not supposed to cheer for dead Russians or post violent videos \u2013 that was undesirable behavior. At the same time, the Russians tortured, raped, and murdered small children as young as five years old in front of their mothers in Irpin.
\nThe Russian atrocities in this war are almost incomprehensible, and behind every tortured, raped, murdered, fallen person, there are permanently damaged individuals or grieving families who have lost everything and can never recover. It is an absolutely indescribable amount of personal tragedies in this war.<\/p>\n

And yet they keep going with or without ammunition.<\/p>\n

This war is the start of our time\u2019s great global conflict, and we are still discussing the tone or how the protest note to Putin should be written.<\/p>\n

Everything is not what it seems.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/deathangelusa\/status\/1799089571612807387?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I got really pissed off yesterday at the pro-Russian accounts, I must admit, and maybe had a somewhat odd way of manifesting my dissatisfaction, and it was Friday night \ud83d\ude00
\nI am absolutely f**king tired of this war and of those who do not have an honest discussion with a hidden agenda, and all the constant attempts at manipulation in the thread, and this is still almost a protected workshop compared to worse-moderated forums.<\/p>\n

If you are a decision-maker or expert and a prioritized target for Russian influence, the chance is unfortunately quite high that your decisions are affected, and that is what I feel we have seen over 2.5 years. Those who previously tried to act on the issue were immediately cut down, the blog\u2019s LW and researcher Kragh, for example.<\/p>\n

The tactic from the West has been to try to avoid Russian escalation when Putin escalates all the time, and it hurt when one understood that Putin negotiated with the West so VDV could slip out of Kherson.
\nThe spring offensive 2023 was almost rigged to fail, and the year before Zalizhny was held back.<\/p>\n

Now maybe the counteroffensives up at the northern front are a bit too low level so far, even if they are offensive, but if it gets lively this summer, I have a bone to pick with the \u201cno offensive before 2025\u201d gang to hear what they based their analyses on because they presumably have the same data as the rest of us.
\nOr really, the two Russian divisions currently getting beaten up at the northern front are enough to raise the question \u2013 what was the basis that made you push the line that Ukraine cannot go on the offensive before 2025?
\nIt MIGHT have been the basis that made the West send nothing all spring, summer, and fall?<\/p>\n

Everything points to this going badly for Russia; right now Putin has given a very aggressive speech in a fit of emotion and then starts talking about peace but on his terms. He is stuck and looking for an out.
\nThe West gave Putin a damn breather in autumn 2023 and winter 2024 by not giving Ukraine any ammunition at all \u2013 a free half-year to get organized.
\nBut even that wasn\u2019t enough.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/noelreports\/status\/1799109859033673922?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Seems there has been a Twitter feud between Xi Jinping and Putin after Xi posted a rather disrespectful tweet yesterday that clearly got Putin fired up.
\nNow Putin writes on his Twitter \u2013 \u041a\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0433\u043b\u0430\u0437\u044b\u0439 \u0432 \u0434\u0435\u0448\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u043a\u043e\u0441\u0442\u044e\u043c\u0430\u0445 \u0438 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0433\u043b\u0443\u0448\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u043c \u0441\u0432\u0435\u0442\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u043f\u0438\u043b \u0441\u0442\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u0440\u0438\u0441\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0431\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0434\u0438, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0438\u043a\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u0441\u043b\u044b\u0448\u0438\u0442 \u0435\u0433\u043e \u043b\u0435\u043f\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0438\u044f.
\nIt will be interesting to follow this feud and see where it ends because it\u2019s clear China is starting to abandon Russia.<\/p>\n

Many theories about what is happening with the Black Sea Fleet; I am mostly surprised that they survived for over a whole day.<\/p>\n

Disappointed that the counterattacks up at the northern front are only inside UA territory but we\u2019ll see. If they don\u2019t get going, I know what I think and then the West has learned nothing \ud83d\ude10
\nThen the usual explanations come along that we don\u2019t know anything and half a year later Zelensky confirms what was suspected.<\/p>\n

For a Ukrainian offensive, air superiority is not required; what is required is that RU FAB bombers, CAS, and Ahkp are denied access to the fronts, which we are now beginning to see.
\nUkraine can achieve its own air superiority with drones and other indirect weapons.
\nF-16 is not the critical line but I had thought they would wait for them.
\nNow it seems they will be delayed further?
\nGripen could have made a difference but now that pro-Russian troll accounts have hijacked that discussion, I\u2019m leaving it completely.
\nThis will come out in a few months, it\u2019s a hot potato, and then we\u2019ll see which self-appointed expert was closest.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m starting to be of the opinion that Europe should stand on its own feet. The USA is like the bank \u2013 not your friend.
\nBut right now apparently the FSB has also identified that as a potential conflict area and is putting resources into it \u2013 a non-issue. Thus, they are conceding both issues.<\/p>\n

The USA and Germany, who have been the biggest brakes, have both in the last week apologized to Zelensky for dragging their feet on support \u2013 that argument that they always do everything right and we others know nothing fell apart there. And we have heard that argument very often. Why apologize for something if you were right all along?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1799063257405366581?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The question has come up from time to time what I base my positive view of the war on.<\/p>\n

It became quite clear fairly quickly that Ukraine managed its defense about a week into the war, right? My position before the war started was that if Ukraine lost the terrain up to the Dnieper it was a win; after 2-3 days I had calibrated myself, I think, if you look at what was written in the thread. It was the air landing at Hostomel that turned out to be a nothing burger.<\/p>\n

After that, I assumed the West would start sending the equipment they are now sending, which they had in stock all along, enough, and that Ukraine would be able to take the initiative.<\/p>\n

The positive view is thus anchored in the fact that the equipment existed, Ukraine had the will, and then I made the huge mistake of believing that the West had learned something after WW1, WW2, the Cold War, and the Yugoslav wars.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean this war will end any other way, just that I am disappointed in our elected officials and have joined the Pirate Party.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, I don\u2019t think everything that could be unlocked has been unlocked yet \u2013 an offensive straight up into Moominvalley, for example, but enough is unlocked for Ukraine to be able to piece together a win.<\/p>\n

If the West can just keep China out of this as they are doing now, this war will come to an end, the 1991 borders will be restored, and Russia will be isolated as the criminal clan they are.<\/p>\n

And whatever we do \u2013 don\u2019t start preaching forgiveness and magnanimity, let Eastern Europe finish building its Maginot Line, hold the border, and get rid of the Russian subversive activities, crime, and economic criminality that absolutely poison the West. Because if we preach forgiveness and magnanimity again, another country will suffer as badly as Ukraine in 10 years. The West has largely contributed to Russia attacking Ukraine by trying to avoid escalation since 2014 and letting Putin fill his war chest.<\/p>\n

If they want back into the fold, they will have to do like everyone else, atone for their crime and show that they have changed their behavior to low-emotion responses \u2013 war reparations, disarmament, all war criminals to The Hague, irrefutable proof that the country is democratized and that they have dealt with their corruption. To be positive, how long do you think that will take?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Can\u2019t help but agree 100%!<\/p>\n

I was afraid there might not be an essay today considering yesterday, and then you hit us with this post!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

It was Anonymtid who got his five minutes in the spotlight, he was at it all day.
\nThen 3-4 accounts popped up late at night pushing the same as him and you were probably an account I didn\u2019t recognize.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m pretty annoyed at the US handling of Gripen and noticed that only new accounts were commenting under my post and agreeing with me, one was of course Anonymtid, and I felt that enough with manipulation.<\/p>\n

Maybe I haven\u2019t fully accepted this about low-emotion responses yet and it was a bit unfair to shoot so broadly \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Now I\u2019ve crossed you off the suspect list but Dengamle is still there because he has something to prove, he must post an audio recording where he says Bulle and if it\u2019s a female voice I know he asked the neighbor lady for help \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t know if you read the thread when a pitch-black person named Tankfri did his best to throw the thread off balance and then someone else \u2013 then it was really lively.<\/p>\n

Yes, I seriously considered blaming the dog again but when I read through the posts they were a bit too long for it to be credible, last time I got away with it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:12 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

In a rare moment of honesty, I have to admit I was a bit worried when I scrolled through this morning what the dog had written \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:24 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Don\u2019t crash a good story.<\/p>\n

Throughout world history, there have always been people with integrity in the right place at the right time; Chamberlain was not one of them.<\/p>\n

What made me go up in falsetto with Gripen was that our government, despite full Russian PR bombing and the Tid\u00f6 coalition, actually did everything right, our Churchill moment, and then the USA comes with a curveball and torpedoes everything.
\nSweden has largely acted beyond what was expected of us and has delivered a lot relative to our size.
\nMany countries have sent surplus equipment and recorded it at purchase price.<\/p>\n

It’s quite simple \u2013 countries that have no contact with Russia do not feel threatened, Russian subversive activities, elections every four years, the Supreme Commander with the job description to have a national defense, budget, career politicians, and a sensitive issue.<\/p>\n

Anyone who has done group work at school knows how easy it is to pull in the same direction.<\/p>\n

This is an extraordinary situation and if you make the wrong decision as a politician and stick your neck out, your career could be over.<\/p>\n

I read every day how terrible the government is for sending 25 billion to Ukraine when healthcare is in crisis, crime and unemployment are running rampant \u2013 there is corruption where they get accounts in the Cayman Islands as thanks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:29 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Understood!\ud83d\ude02<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Yes, I’m as annoyed as you are about that and had planned to pursue the issue today but I guess I’ll have to drop it until someone leaks the truth.<\/p>\n

But now I couldn’t hold back \u2013 according to someone on Twitter from the USA I spoke with, we should have sent all our best weapons to the long-range plane and that, combined with us announcing that we had no geographical restrictions, was too much for the Biden administration, we didn’t follow the script.
\nThen they used the plane’s components as a brake.<\/p>\n

If that’s true, the government has really shown full integrity and analyzed the situation correctly \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Asking for a friend \u2013 if he received an audio file with an obvious broad Sm\u00e5land dialect saying “muffins, waffle, what the hell was it again, boelle”. Can one conclude that it is the Sm\u00e5land dialect playing tricks, I’m leaning towards that?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83e\udd23 Of course you have to drop the Russian troll accusations against THEOLDGUY!<\/p>\n

On the other hand, I was also suspected, so my credibility might not be that high\u2026\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:06 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

I’ve done that above now, he was relieved \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

You and Surtrutn are already crossed off, there was some attack of great suspicion for a while but now I’m back on track.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:20 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Now Lars has posted that we should put the champagne on chill so I ran and threw some Star beers in the fridge and took out a tube of Pringles, and then Swan Lake in black and white comes in the next post and everyone in the thread knows what that means, right?<\/p>\n

I have nothing on my radar at all and the thread that usually keeps track of most things is busy with results in the European Championship and other off-topic stuff. No rumors about a coup or dangling pinata at all. Previously the thread was quick as cobras on rumors about a coup.<\/p>\n

So can the thread figure out what’s going on or are we completely useless \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Something about Prigozhin comes up, that’s the only thing that stands out and THEOLDGUY \u2013 what does Budanov say?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:27 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

So the thread is supposed to sleep through the sparkling finale at half past nine on a Saturday night?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

The other thing is that things are scandalously bad for RU at the northern front even if the opsec cover is tight but that’s no champagne news directly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:47 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Now I’ve finished the Star beer, eaten the chips and DMed about 300 people asking if it’s a coup or if Putin is dead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

There’s a certain risk that I am the originator of the big morning news that Putin is dead \ud83d\ude32<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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