{"id":9223,"date":"2024-06-10T11:03:04","date_gmt":"2024-06-10T09:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-10-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:25:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:25:57","slug":"2024-06-10-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-10-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-10"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The Ropucha in Sevastopol that has not been sunk is highly interesting, Sevastopol is basically a shooting range for Ukraine and RU is sending a prioritized target there that survives for three days?
\nThen there was the rumor about a sinking that disappeared immediately but that was probably gone in eastern Crimea?<\/p>\n

I phrased myself a bit poorly regarding death (prepared to die) yesterday and got clarification from Pappersp\u00e5se who is good at this death stuff, they are and have been ready to sacrifice themselves for a free Ukraine, that\u2019s what I meant to write \ud83d\ude00
\nThey are thus highly motivated soldiers who are prepared to complete the task in the best way they can even if it means falling. Yes, it works wonders to know that medevac is available.<\/p>\n

Now to the northern front because it\u2019s starting to look really exciting there.<\/p>\n

Lineup red, front sector Kharkiv.
\n18th MRD which is an established division, has seen combat before and has been one of the spearheads down from the northern front has presumably taken heavy losses. Reinforced with 217th airborne.
\n47th Tank division which is also an established division has fought at Vovchansk.
\nThen 44th CAA with 72nd and 69th MRD \u2013 this seems to be a newly formed unit that has presumably been sacrificed.
\nVarious territorials, a Kadyrovite, 155th marine infantry, and 2nd Spetznaz
\nThese were well over 30,000 strong and they have lost just over half and about 15,000 remain \u2013 I\u2019m just guessing.
\n44th AC is newly formed, belongs to the strategic reserve, soldiers without combat experience who do not master combined arms warfare at all. They have a strap for their personal weapon so they don\u2019t forget it.
\nThey have support from a total of four (4) artillery brigades.
\nSo just over half the force are substandard units and half the force are more competent.
\nThe question is who have gone and died in the past weeks?<\/p>\n

And the question is which army is handling border security between Troitske \u2013 Vovchansk, 11th AC or 6th CAA
\nThese units have attacked for weeks with 8:1 losses against UA defense.<\/p>\n

Lineup red, front sector Sumy.
\nHere RU is said to have gathered around 20,000 according to highly unconfirmed rumors, I have no information here but it\u2019s probably another CAA plus a couple of assigned brigades and artillery maybe?
\nI\u2019m keeping an eye on Sumy, loose rumor about an offensive turned into reconnaissance fighting but it\u2019s done for some purpose. Probably fewer than 20,000 in that area if you guess but too little information.<\/p>\n

Lineup blue \u2013 Kharkiv.
\nBehind Vovchansk UA has 8 brigades of which most are elite units with 1-2 years of combat experience and can presumably fight in larger units, effective maneuver brigades like 82nd Airborne, NG Spartan, 71st Jaeger, 52nd motorized, 36th marines and 42nd Mech.
\nThen they have a forest of battalion-sized units totaling 13. Everything from volunteer battalions to SOF and the marine corps.
\nIt\u2019s all elite units in the Vovchansk area.<\/p>\n

RU has a total of 10 brigades of which most have probably already been beaten so a 1:3 advantage UA doesn\u2019t sound unreasonable at all.<\/p>\n

Behind Hlyboke there are 3 capable maneuver brigades and five battalion-sized units, SOF, reconnaissance etc.
\nAnd against them are seven RU units so it feels more like defense in that area is the plan.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t make the mistake of thinking it\u2019s 2023 \u2013 UA chose to attack with newly formed mech brigades but here are units that have seen everything and survived, all Darwinists and RU has every reason to be terrified.<\/p>\n

Lineup blue \u2013 Sumy
\nHere we don\u2019t know the size of the red team but UA has 6 brigades of which two are territorial and a full three mech and then four battalion-sized units. If RU has 20,000 in the area UA probably matches them numerically.
\nA total of two artillery brigades for the entire northern front.<\/p>\n

Right now a deadly pre-attack bombardment is ongoing across the border. We have autumn 2022 all over again where RU did not expect to be targeted beyond a certain distance and staffs, ammunition depots, fuel supplies, staging areas and billets are now being shelled.
\nNothing is field-worthy on the Russian side of the border because they haven\u2019t needed to care since Putin had a deal with Scholz and Biden in all their evil.
\nYou don\u2019t change that in a snap and Ukraine has naturally bided its time and entered countless target coordinates into the Excel sheet.
\nIt\u2019s a carpet of death in the northern oblasts right now.<\/p>\n

To me it feels like Ukraine could launch a violent offensive straight into the northern oblasts (Moominvalley) if they wanted, numbers and type of units suggest it\u2019s possible.
\nIf they intended to defend they would have done so at a numerical disadvantage and with an overweight of territorials and some special forces behind.<\/p>\n

Considering how different the messages are about how Ukraine is allowed to fire across the northern border I don\u2019t think a violent offensive straight towards Moscow is politically unlocked yet unfortunately.<\/p>\n

Maybe another war-winning opportunity wasted because Putin would have a hard time politically handling Voronezh falling \u2013 very hard.<\/p>\n

Since the Russians have invested in an offensive in the area the defense is probably neglected and remaining units have been driven hard Russian style.<\/p>\n

I get completely tearful over the West\u2019s constant finger-wagging but I\u2019ve learned one thing over time \u2013 if it looks like a Western finger-wag it\u2019s probably that, we find out after about half a year.<\/p>\n

Is RU running low on IFVs and using the last tanks for mechanized combat?
\nSaw something about an attack with only 4 tanks which is interesting and losses suggest a small shift.
\nPreviously it was 5 tanks and 25 IFVs in losses roughly.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has actually carried out local counterattacks near Bakhmut recently if you noticed, both Chasiv Yar and Klischiivka. Good job by a country that supposedly couldn\u2019t conduct offensives before 2025.<\/p>\n

According to David D UA is attacking into Russia now but I don\u2019t dare bet on that.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kujbpgtha322<\/a><\/p>\n

Considering some comments maybe I need to clarify that the undersigned will keep pushing Putin\u2019s and Xi Jinping\u2019s quarrel a bit longer if that\u2019s clear enough \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping has now really fired up and launched a violent broadside on his Twitter. Maybe some is lost in translation but this probably stung Putin.
\n\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c0f\u9ad8\u8ddf\u5fae\u578b\u5730\u72f1\u5e94\u8be5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e3a\u4ed6\u80fd\u5413\u5230\u6211\u5427\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u997a\u5b50\u548c\u5e78\u8fd0\u997c\u5e72\u4e3a\u8363\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8bf7\u575a\u6301\u4f4f\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u4e3a\u5076\u50cf\u5d07\u62dc\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u90e8\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s response didn\u2019t take longer than 30 minutes, he got that upset and now he seems furious to the point of crying. Almost little fists drumming on the floor in anger.
\n\u042d\u0442\u043e \u0432\u043e\u043d\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0435 \u0434\u0435\u0440\u044c\u043c\u043e, \u0441 \u043a\u0435\u043c \u043e\u043d \u0434\u0443\u043c\u0430\u0435\u0442, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0442\u043e\u0436\u0435 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0433\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0435\u0442. \u041d\u0438\u043a\u0442\u043e \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u044f\u0432\u0438\u0442 \u043d\u0435\u0443\u0432\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043a \u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u041f\u0443\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0443 \u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u0432\u044b\u0436\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0442, \u0441\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0438\u0442\u0435 \u0442\u044b\u0441\u044f\u0447\u0438 \u043b\u044e\u0434\u0435\u0439, \u043a\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0440\u044b\u0445 \u044f \u043e\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b \u0432 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438. \u041c\u043d\u0435 \u043d\u0435 \u043d\u0443\u0436\u043d\u044b \u0432\u0430\u0448\u0438 \u0434\u0443\u0440\u0430\u0446\u043a\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u0440\u043e\u043d\u044b, \u043c\u044b \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u0432\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043a\u043b\u0435\u0442\u043a\u0438 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0434\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432 \u043d\u0430 \u043c\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0446\u0438\u043a\u043b\u044b \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0431\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0430\u0435\u043c, \u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043e \u043d\u0430 \u0432\u0430\u0441, \u043f\u0440\u0438\u043a\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0442\u044c \u0447\u043b\u0435\u043d.<\/p>\n

This could end in just about any way, I don\u2019t rule out nuclear weapons or Russia poisoning the Yellow River, everything is on the table now in this lightning-fast escalation.<\/p>\n

Have you noticed that the US has started slow-walking F-16s again?
\nThis is getting pretty tiresome actually \ud83e\udd2c
\nThere is another explanation if one WILDLY speculates further \u2013 the US knows that UA will take off like a handful of ants dropped on the ground as soon as F-16s arrive and they can control F-16 deliveries but lost grip on Gripen. Could possibly have to do with the US wanting Ukraine to retake Crimea in 2024 and not attack straight up towards Voronezh?<\/p>\n

Looking at the battle maps and fieldwork, the only logical thing is to attack at the northern front and conduct extensive amphibious operations between Kinburn Spit \u2013 Crimea, but the West has rarely been logical in this war and unfortunately Zelensky still has to ask Biden for permission, that is absolutely crystal clear.<\/p>\n

The critical line is slipping even more.<\/p>\n

Ukraine can always do like in 2023 and push forward anyway, but then there will be blood on Biden’s hands, children’s blood.<\/p>\n

When the flanks start to wobble, RU is forced to move troops from other front sections along its enormous U-shaped front line, and UA’s strategic reserve of 13 brigades then stands waiting for their turn when an opening comes.
\nI can understand that the West really does not want to see a Ukrainian offensive that takes Voronezh in a week, but somehow this war must end, and unfortunately the West has steered Ukraine into bad choices throughout the war.<\/p>\n

– In 2022, Zalizhny was forced to abandon his VDV killers.
\n– In 2023, Zalizhny was forced to attack with NATO doctrine where RU was strongest.
\n– In 2024, we have already heard that Ukraine will focus on Crimea, nothing else.
\nThe trend is that it can go well, just not too well.<\/p>\n

Russia has just significantly advanced its positions in the EU and can surely start blocking decisions going forward or push through insane decisions that are bad for the EU. The longer this war goes on, the worse it gets for us in the West \u2013 do our elected officials really not understand that?<\/p>\n

Do you see how the debate is going in Sweden over one mandate switching from KD to MP?
\nThat only 50% go and vote might have to do with the bad tone and mudslinging from virtually all parties?
\nMy aversion to MP is, by the way, based on the closed nuclear power plants and this gentleman has calculated the total cost, 1000 billion SEK will be the bill. Thanks MP for doing what is best for Sweden \ud83d\ude4f
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/y_yadid\/status\/1799749805423665335?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

A quick end to this war is good for the West, our forges are already glowing hot and the West will rearm enormously over the next 10 years.
\nChina cannot wage a blitzkrieg because they have India and Russia around them by land and the sea route they can forget, if they try with Taiwan they will learn the lesson lightning fast.<\/p>\n

Then Putin’s latest red line about shooting Western weapons into Russia has had zero consequences as usual, his red lines can always be jumped on. Everyone who can do a bit of honest analysis knew that, but the West has hesitated about this far too long.<\/p>\n

If Ukraine is allowed to attack straight into the northern oblasts, all focus will shift to solving that problem and RU will panic and pull troops from Ukraine.
\nThen if violent piracy and raids start from Kinburn Spit and eastwards, where many headquarters and other targets lie close to the coast, RU will be forced to focus on that too.
\nBoth areas are poorly defended.<\/p>\n

And then you strike at one of the fronts where RU is weakened and then RU’s command for the war will start sleeping really badly.<\/p>\n

This one was a bit funny, Swedish urban combat so on topic
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/corporalolle\/status\/1799669947133489454?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This one is completely off-topic but I laughed until I cried and want to give the thread a positive start to the day \ud83e\udd23
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/weirddalle\/status\/1799011159347261850?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Hope they have soon thrown the Russians out up there by Belgorod, it would be nice to see them march into Russia and cause real chaos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Considering what they have gathered, it reveals quite a lot about their intention.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:30 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

SU-34 has crashed in Russia \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n

https:\/\/x.com\/bayraktar_1love\/status\/1800382357288960404?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Only number two \ud83d\ude0e<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:43 \u2013 Johan No.1 The Ropucha in Sevastopol that has not been sunk is highly interesting, Sevastopol is basically a 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