{"id":9227,"date":"2024-06-12T08:55:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T06:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2024-06-12-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T12:26:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:26:54","slug":"2024-06-12-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/en\/2024-06-12-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2024-06-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:51 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

The 76th AAD is now positioned as a task force behind the Dnieper, which quite clearly tells us what the Russians believe will happen; otherwise, it would have been an offensive resource at Avdiivka or Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

The threat on the northern front is difficult for RU to handle because it extends the active front by 450 km, which is almost as long as the existing front lines through the occupied areas.<\/p>\n

They would therefore need about half a million men to secure it, which they do not have, so they are probably relying on the West to stop Ukraine from doing anything effective. Today, June 12, a strike straight into the soft parts is absolutely doable and the risk of escalation is almost zero \u2013
\n-it has been done three times before.
\n-Putin’s red lines can be jumped on.
\n-the attacking units have an air defense shield that can shoot down tactical nuclear weapons (not that I believe Putin will expose himself like that).<\/p>\n

Then, to highlight the line of not escalating, not sending air defense, and since last spring not sending air defense ammunition until sometime in winter 2024 \u2013 what did that have to do with not escalating? Nothing, presumably?<\/p>\n

They just threw Ukraine to the wolves, gave Putin a six-month water break and a chance to bomb all important Ukrainian infrastructure to pieces \u2013 why, the ammunition was there?
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1800670854495302140?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

I think this thing about escalation is not everything; what lies behind it could be continuing business with Russia and wanting to normalize relations as soon as the war is over, time will tell. Then maybe the USA planned to wrest Russia away from China, who knows?<\/p>\n

Considering that RU reportedly had 50,000 at the northern front, of which at least 15,000 have died and 20,000 could be anything from a few thousand to full strength, they do not have anywhere near what is needed to protect the border.
\nUA has enough units in the area to carry out serious raids into the northern oblasts.<\/p>\n

I wonder if Putin gets to know all the West\u2019s red cards so he can constantly prioritize?
\nKherson he was able to evacuate calmly, Kharkiv UA handled themselves and surprised, and then everything played out too fast, but RU barely cared about the northern front until now, spring 2024.<\/p>\n

How do you think it would have looked today if the Kharkiv offensive had continued straight north already in 2022?
\nAt the northern front in winter 2023, Putin was revealed to have fortified the border with a few dozen border guards.<\/p>\n

If he had been worried about Ukrainian attacks, he would have needed half a million there and nothing left for other fronts.<\/p>\n

This is the other thing \u2013 if Putin finds out that Ukraine is allowed to carry out offensives in the northern oblasts, he will be forced to give up an area in Ukraine to be able to defend up there.
\nIt will be one of those voluntary retreats again.<\/p>\n

Now, according to RUMINT, he has redeployed air defense as protection when UA started shooting across the border.<\/p>\n

If there are whispers of an offensive, he will have to pull several army corps from the fronts in Ukraine and instead of weakening everywhere, maybe they will give up an area again?
\nYou can see for yourself on the map that an offensive across the border at the northern front is straight into Muscovite Russia and they do not like that at all.<\/p>\n

It would become a priority to defend, and they would abandon the southern front and Crimea and give back the darkest Donbass to the rebels with a pat on the back.
\nUntil the raids into Russia restart, my line is that Ukraine should not enter Russia and then they still do not fight on equal terms even if their hands may no longer be tied.<\/p>\n

Since it is like that, the Kadyrovites have behaved in Ukraine and Wagner is active in Africa, so it is on-topic, but this is probably among the worst things I have ever read. Now it is in a slightly different context, but the information is what’s interesting. This is how it looks in some places and it is what the West is trying to prevent. Yes, it is fun to hate the USA and blame the West for all sorts of things all the time, but then this is what happens instead. Right now, Africa is about to ignite and absolutely no one cares.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/realmaalouf\/status\/1799889507619082549?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This was very straightforward and clear from our Prime Minister \u2013 you understand exactly where he stands on the issue, gave him a positive comment.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/swedishpm\/status\/1800567157417181363?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Versailles is burning, left-right are demonstrating, Catalonians are going bananas, the right is gaining ground and they are leaving Africa. France is having a lot of bad luck right now.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/shadowofezra\/status\/1800551391678570642?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Imagine if Ukraine had gotten the American version of the TOS-1, how do you think the Surovikin line would have held up?
\nThe USA also has about a million thermobaric grenades that they are not sending because it is unethical and escalatory, better to let Ukrainian soldiers be burned alive by TOS-1.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/thinkdefence\/status\/1800548722259963925?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

The refinery bombings are back with a bang, now in Belarus where one of their two refineries has burned.
\nhttps:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/johanno1.bsky.social\/post\/3kupl44vqyy2v<\/a><\/p>\n

And RU is really short on air defense in depth, so much that they defend prioritized targets with small-caliber weapons.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1800553940293193921?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Someone listened to the thread\u2019s suggestion to vacuum up old Leo1 tanks and modify them to Strv 122 or the later modification now underway.
\nWhat a business we would have had, but now Norway took it.
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/alexluck9\/status\/1800476844107747665?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

This has been up before but Austria thinks it is Ukraine that is escalating\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/x.com\/teoyaomiquu\/status\/1799642262403530755?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w<\/a><\/p>\n

Taking a bird\u2019s eye view of the war, the West has now basically united and opened the barns and from the top shelf, as has been shouted about in some thread since 2022. Everything was available.
\nThen production in the West has started up, most recently artillery barrels.
\nThis is enormously bad for Putin who has no chance to win this war.
\nIn all my bitterness, I must admit that Ukraine will keep going here despite all the Chamberlain doctrines, but it was wrong to take that risk. Not sending anything between spring 2023 \u2013 winter 2024 was high risk. <\/p>\n

That the West is dragging its feet with the advanced aircraft is probably part of this de-escalation strategy but it is starting to feel like it is secondary because the war goes on.
\nThen I am of the opinion that the \u201cwar-winning weapon packages\u201d have now been delivered and that the rhetoric is tough enough \u2013 2023 was really a disaster in strategic communication when after the NATO meeting they thought Ukraine should be grateful and not demand so much and then the war-winning weapon packages failed to materialize.<\/p>\n

One can only hope that the direct line to Putin is cut so now he has to sit and guess, which he doesn’t like.<\/p>\n

Then there are a few who push this idea of frozen fronts and that it would benefit Putin \u2013 how so if UA can now shoot into Russia and can strike targets 2000km inside Russian territory?
\nThey promised 3000km, but we haven’t seen that yet.
\nUkraine can calmly continue to strike high-value targets until Russia is on its knees.<\/p>\n

They still intend to reclaim their country, which they will do, but if the critical line is the fighter jets, it is now slipping.<\/p>\n

Putin should be cornered \u2013 attempts at probing negotiations are met with silence from the West, all his offensives have failed miserably, and Ukraine has now reached full strength.<\/p>\n

I also had a revelation yesterday, put on my work shoes, took a few steps and felt a little tickle \u2013 when I took off my shoe, there was a huge crushed cockroach in it, the message being that for some, God’s ways will be inscrutable \ud83e\uddd0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d Yes, it’s damn strange that more MANPADS haven’t been sent earlier when there actually are some to send and it’s not even a red line for the Russians (even though they were upset when the first Patriot system was delivered). There is no excuse for that at all! Civilians have died and the power supply has been severely affected because of it.<\/p>\n

Almost makes me suspect that they are now sending a decent amount of MANPADS just because they are afraid the Russians will manage to take out the F-16s once they arrive. Admittedly not a bad thought, but still cynical that it wasn’t delivered earlier. I hope it’s not the case that they think the ammunition for the Patriot is so expensive that it’s only when they are supposed to protect the even more expensive F-16s that they think it’s worth sending more systems\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

There are many suspicions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:51 \u2013 Johan No.1 The 76th AAD is now positioned as a task force behind the Dnieper, which quite clearly 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